• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.1642-1646
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• 2009

본 연구에서는 이들 문제점을 극복하기 위해 수도권을 대상으로 하여 용수를 사용하는 소비자의 BOD 개선정도별 지불의사(WTP)를 설문을 조사하고, 설문결과를 통계분석하여 수질개선(BOD)-지불의사(WTP) 관계식을 도출하였다. 이때 설문응답자가 최대한 설문대상재화를 객관적이고, 쉽게 이해할 수 있도록 설문지를 작성하였다. 사례연구로서 낙동강수계의 내성천 지방2급하천 구간에 계획한 송리원다목적댐을 대상으로 상수도 원수수질개선에 대한 편익을 산정하였다. 사례연구로서 낙동강수계의 내성천 지방2급하천 구간에 계획한 송리원다목적댐을 대상으로 적용하였다. 방류시나리오별 연평균편익산정 결과, 연평균계획방류량$(4.79\;m^3/s)$ 방류시 5,980 백만원, 풍수기(7$\sim$10월)를 제외한 기간의 계획방류량$(7.22\;m^3/s)$ 방류시 8,663 백만원, 수질악화기 계획방류량$(10.72\;m^3/s)$ 방류시 11,905 백만원, 최대계획방류량$(13.54\;m^3/s)$ 방류시 14,502 백만원으로 산정되었다. 본 연구에서 개발된 가구소득별 수질개선(BOD)-지불의사(WTP) 관계식을 이용함으로써 수질개선사업에 대한 원수수질편익을 산정할 때 사업전 후의 수질분석만 이루어진다면 실무에서 활용 가능한 편익산정방법이 될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.355-355
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• 2023

댐 운영은 크게 홍수기에 치수에 대비하며 갈수기에 효율적인 이수를 목표로 한다. 최근 기후변화와 함께 강수량이 지역별로 편중되며 국지적 가뭄과 편향적인 장기가뭄의 발생 빈도가 증가하고 있는 추세이다. 이상 가뭄이나 홍수에 대비하기 위해서는 정형화된 수자원 관리보다 물 공급의 안정성 확보 및 수재해 방지 등을 목적으로 다양한 정책을 활용한 통합적 수자원 관리 시스템이 요구되고 있다. 일반적으로 가뭄 시 댐의 운영은 가뭄 대응단계별 용수공급조정기준에 따라 생공용수 여유량, 하천유지용수, 농업용수, 생공용수 순으로 감량하게 된다. 또한, 다양한 가뭄대책을 종합적으로 시행함으로써 가뭄에 대응하고 있지만, 해당 대책 간 우선 순위 혹은 가뭄정도에 따른 효율적인 대책 선정을 위한 대책별 편익 및 기여도에 대한 연구 사례는 제한적이다. 본 연구에서는 국내 댐의 용수별 경제적 편익을 고려한 가뭄 대책의 기여도를 산정하는 방법론을 제시하고자 한다. 이를 위해 문헌조사를 통해 수집된 용수별 추정사용량을 계산하여 경제적 편익을 확보하였으며, 유역별 댐의 용수별 편익을 생공용수, 농업용수, 하천유지용수를 2023년 물가 기준으로 산정하였다. 또한 17개 국내 다목적댐의 댐별 시행 중인 가뭄 대책별 운영 상황을 모의하여 각 가뭄대책의 경제적 편익을 산정하였다. 마지막으로 기여도 산정은 동일 댐에서 가뭄 대책의 경제적 편익에 따른 가중치를 부여하여 댐별로 산정하였다. 본 연구에서 제시하는 방법론은 각 이해당사자의향후 가뭄대책의 우선도를 고려한 체계적인 댐운영 의사결정을 위해 근거를 제공할 수 있을 것이다.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.307-326
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• 2019

The electric vehicle is a representative measure to reduce greenhouse gas and local air pollutants in the transportation sector. Most countries provide purchase subsidies and tax reductions to promote electric vehicle sales. The electric vehicles have been considered as zero-emission vehicles(ZEV) in light of the fact that there has been no pollutant emission during driving. However, recent studies have pointed out that the pollutant emitted from the process of generating electricity used for charging the electric vehicles need to be treated as emissions of the electric vehicles. Furthermore, the environmental benefits of electric vehicle replacing the internal combustion vehicle vary with the power mix. In line with the recent studies, this study analyzes the impact of electric vehicles based on the current power mix and future energy transition scenarios in Korea. To estimate the precise air pollutants emission profile, this study uses hourly electricity generation and TMS emission data for each power plant from 2015 to 2016. The estimation results show that the electric vehicles under the current power mix generate the environmental benefits of only -0.41~10.83 won/km. Also, we find that the environmental benefit of electric vehicle will significantly increase only when the ratio of the coal-fired power plant is reduced to a considerable extent.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.43-54
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• 2016

Although there are continuous demands for activating BSSs(Bicycle Sharing Systems) due to the convenience and positive health effects, it is difficult to make a decision to support the existing systems and build more systems because of the deficit resulting from the operation of BSSs. Consequently, this study estimated the economic effects(WTP; Willingness to Pay) of BSS and analyzed the impact factors of WTP to support the above decision making in Daejeon. For this, we conducted a survey and collected 668 samples from the users and non-users of TASHU that is the BSS operated in Daejeon. Also, we used CVM(Contingent Valuation Method) for the estimation of WTP. The results show that the number of bicycle uses is a determinant factor having a positive relationship with WTP and car ownership and age are also determinant factors having a negative relationship with WTP. On the other hand, income and sex have no significant statistical relationship with WTP. Also, the economic benefit of TASHU was estimated as much as 49.9 billion KRW to 63.6 billion KRW. Considering the operation cost of 2.5 billion KRW, it is quite big benefit. Based on the results, it needs to support TASHU from a user perspective for the efficient operation of the system.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.24 no.5
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• pp.569-575
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• 2018

The need for ice-breaking research ships is growing as interest in the Arctic grows. In Korea the 7,500 ton ship Araon, launched in 2009, is the only icebreaker, and difficulty remains when conducting research at the North and South Pole. Thus, the Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries is pushing for the construction of a second icebreaker, and an economic valuation of a second icebreaker is needed. Such a study will help reduce controversy about the construction of a second icebreaker and help ensure reasonable decisions. The economic benefits of a second icebreaker were calculated using a contingent valuation method. In this study, a Bayesian Approach was applied, in contrast to previous methodology utilizing the maximum likelihood estimation method. According to this analysis, the average WTP per household was estimated at 1,999 won per year, and the total benefit from the construction of a second icebreaker was estimated at 373.9 billion won per year.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.221-229
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• 2020

As the cosmetics beauty industry grows into a key next-generation industry, the establishment of an industrialization center is needed, but failure to verify the adequacy and feasibility of the investment could lead to financial burdens. In this study, the project costs and facilities of an industrial center are reviewed to analyze its economic feasibility based on the cost estimates, revenue estimates, estimated profit or loss calculations, and estimated operating cash flows. The profit estimation criteria were analyzed by applying 90 per cent of expected orders for research projects (24 billion won) and 12 per cent of rental rates for testing equipment (4.5 billion won for construction), and the benefit/cost ratio is higher than 1.02 per cent and the net present value is higher than '0' won, and the internal rate of return is also more than 5.06 per cent for all three analytical methods. Therefore, in order for the construction of a cosmetics beauty industrialization center to be economically feasible, it is necessary to maintain research project orders of more than 90 percent and return on equipment rent of more than 12 percent, and a strategic approach is needed to diversify business profits.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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• v.44 no.4
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• pp.231-247
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• 2010

This research examines a number of theoretical and practical issues when measuring the economic value of library services. In particular, using two recent studies conducted in Korea as illustrations, the study shows how various measurement decisions affect the final outcomes in the economic valuation of library services and thus points to the need for a more reliable study design. Specific areas of measurement discussed include the following: scope of measurement, application of CVM(Contingent Valuation Method), time vs. monetary value measurement, dealing with outliers, allowing alternatives, and the use of estimation. ROI(Return on Investment) scores or benefit cost ratios vary significantly according to different measurement choices even in the same study. There is a need for collecting qualitative data that complements the quantitative data typically collected in economic valuation studies. The outcome of economic valuation of library services should be considered as one of many representations of library values. Practitioners and researchers should exercise caution in interpreting those results but be able to leverage them to better communicate the value of library services.

• Proceedings of the KOSOMBE Conference
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• v.1991 no.05
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• pp.65-70
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• 1991

A hybrid model which uses a probabilistic model and a MLP(multi layer perceptron) model for pattern recognition of EMG(electromyogram) signals is proposed in this paper. MLP model has problems which do not guarantee global minima of error due to learning method and have different approximation grade to bayesian probabilities due to different amounts and quality of training data, the number of hidden layers and hidden nodes, etc. Especially in the case of new test data which exclude design samples, the latter problem produces quite different results. The error probability of probabilistic model is closely related to the estimation error of the parameters used in the model and fidelity of assumtion. Generally, it is impossible to introduce the bayesian classifier to the probabilistic model of EMG signals because of unknown priori probabilities and is estimated by MLE(maximum likelihood estimate). In this paper we propose the method which get the MAP(maximum a posteriori probability) in the probabilistic model by estimating the priori probability distribution which minimize the error probability using the MLP. This method minimize the error probability of the probabilistic model as long as the realization of the MLP is optimal and approximate the minimum of error probability of each class of both models selectively. Alocating the reference coordinate of EMG signal to the outside of the body make it easy to suit to the applications which it is difficult to define and seperate using internal body coordinate. Simulation results show the benefit of the proposed model compared to use the MLP and the probabilistic model seperately.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 1994.10a
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• pp.49-58
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• 1994

The methods of estimation of VTS effectivenss are compared and the worldwide literature related to the VTS effectiveness is reviewed. The review suggests three potential approaches ; simulation ; synthesis of expert opinion and statistical analysis of casualties. this study adopted dissimilar approaches to estimate the VTS effectiveness to the earlier studies ; the combination of synthesis of expert opinion and causal analysis of casualty. The VTS effectiveness is derived by multiplying casualty rate reduction factors by the effect level of causal factors. The development of casualty rate reduction factors was based on the questionnaire survey and the evolution of effect levels was based on the causal analysis using functional block diagram. According to these procedures the maximum benefit to be obtained through the introduction of a VTS system was approximately 46 percent overall. The collision reduction rate was estimated to be approximately 50 percent for a VTS system with advanced radar surveillance. And 47 percent of groundings 36 percent of rammings and 21 percent of founderings could be reduced by the introduction of VTS. These figures are more or less the same to the earlier studies. The VTS effectiveness by the different causal factor groups was examined. VTS may reduce about 68 percent of causal factors classified as environmental conditions 40 percent of human factors and 35 percent of technical factors in collision accidents. As a whole 60 percent of environmental factors 41 percent of human factors and 20 percent of technical factors may be prevented by a VTS. The key variable of the effectiveness percentage is the value of weight coefficient $\delta$. Therefore differing values for this input was discussed and the impact that these variations have on the VS effectiveness noted. As the results of sensitivity analysis of VTS effectiveness by $\pm$10 percent the effectiveness is varied approximately three to seven percent by casualty type. And the value is changed roughly four to eight percent by a $\pm$10 percent variation by different sub-areas.

• Health Policy and Management
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.457-478
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• 2023

Background: This study aims to contribute to the adjustment of the appropriate doctor manpower by analyzing the distribution, supply and demand, and estimation of the doctor manpower. Methods: This study utilized the medical personnel data of the Ministry of Health and Welfare, population trend data of the National Statistical Office, and health insurance benefit performance data of the National Health Insurance Service. Based on 2021, we compared the number of doctors in actual supply and the number of doctors in demand according to the amount of medical use by gender and age for 250 regions. Logistic regression analysis and scenario analysis were performed to estimate the future medical workforce by considering the demand for doctors according to the future demographic structure, the size of the quota in medical schools, and the retirement rate. Results: There were 186 regions in which the supply of doctors was below average, and the average ratio of the number of doctors in supply to demand in the region was 62.1%. Conclusion: In order to increase the number of active doctors nationwide to at least 80%, 7,756 people must be allocated. The number of doctors in demand is estimated to decrease after increasing to 1.492 times in 2059. The future projected number of doctors is expected to increase to 1.349 times in 2050 and then decrease taking into account the doctor quota and the retirement rate.