• Strategy21
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• 통권40호
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• pp.37-81
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• 2016

This paper aims to use crossover analysis to uncover similarities and differences between the U.S-Japan relationship in the World War II era and the modern U.S-China relationship, and to forecast the possibility of the outbreak of war between U.S and China by applying the steps to war theory. The steps to war theory argues that the probability of the outbreak of war between two states within five years would approach 90 percent, if they have ongoing territorial dispute, alliance, rivalry, and arms race. The comparison exposes some similarities with the territorial dispute, alliance, rivalry, but reveals dissimilarities with arms race. U.S-Japan relationship in the World War II era had the arms race, which does not exist the modern U.S-China Relationship. The result of comparison is that the probability for the Outbreak of War between U.S and China correspond to third stage(Risk Level). it means that the probability for the Outbreak of War between U.S and China is 55%. But, There are four elements(① Perception of Leader ② Mutual dependence of economy ③ Possession of nuclear weapon ④ Ravages of war) that reduce the probability for the Outbreak of War. Considering the four elements, the probability for the Outbreak of War between U.S and China is a slim chance. But the probability for the Outbreak of War between U.S and China is excluded because of territorial dispute, alliance, rivalry. So, This paper suggests three points.(① Developing military options ② Reducing the misconception of intend, ③ Promoting navy exchanges) to prevent of Outbreak of War.