• Title/Summary/Keyword: The Prediction Model

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Determinants of IPO Failure Risk and Price Response in Kosdaq (코스닥 상장 시 실패위험 결정요인과 주가반응에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Sung-Bae;Nam, Sam-Hyun;Yi, Hwa-Deuk
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.1-34
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    • 2010
  • Recently, failure rates of Kosdaq IPO firms are increasing and their survival rates tend to be very low, and when these firms do fail, often times backed by a number of governmental financial supports, they may inflict severe financial damage to investors, let alone economy as a whole. To ensure investors' confidence in Kosdaq and foster promising and healthy businesses, it is necessary to precisely assess their intrinsic values and survivability. This study investigates what contributed to the failure of IPO firms and analyzed how these elements are factored into corresponding firms' stock returns. Failure risks are assessed at the time of IPO. This paper considers factors reflecting IPO characteristics, a firm's underwriter prestige, auditor's quality, IPO offer price, firm's age, and IPO proceeds. The study further went on to examine how, if at all, these failure risks involved during IPO led to post-IPO stock prices. Sample firms used in this study include 98 Kosdaq firms that have failed and 569 healthy firms that are classified into the same business categories, and Logit models are used in estimate the probability of failure. Empirical results indicate that auditor's quality, IPO offer price, firm's age, and IPO proceeds shown significant relevance to failure risks at the time of IPO. Of other variables, firm's size and ROA, previously deemed significantly related to failure risks, in fact do not show significant relevance to those risks, whereas financial leverage does. This illustrates the efficacy of a model that appropriately reflects the attributes of IPO firms. Also, even though R&D expenditures were believed to be value relevant by previous studies, this study reveals that R&D is not a significant factor related to failure risks. In examing the relation between failure risks and stock prices, this study finds that failure risks are negatively related to 1 or 2 year size-adjusted abnormal returns after IPO. The results of this study may provide useful knowledge for government regulatory officials in contemplating pertinent policy and for credit analysts in their proper evaluation of a firm's credit standing.

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Effect of Package Size and Pasteurization Temperature on the Quality of Sous Vide Processed Spinach (Sous Vide 가공 시금치의 품질에 미치는 포장단위 및 살균온도의 영향)

  • 장재덕;김기태;이동선
    • Food Science and Preservation
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.195-200
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    • 2004
  • Microbial lethal value and nutrient retention of sous vide processed spinach were evaluated with mathematical model prediction and experimental trial for different package sizes and pasteurization temperatures. The package size covers 500 g, 1 kg and 2 kg, while the pasteurization temperature includes 80, 90 and 97$^{\circ}C$. The basic process scheme consists of filling blanched spinach into barrier plastic film pouch, sealing under vacuum, pasteurization in hot water with over pressure and final cooling to 3$^{\circ}C$. Pasteurization condition was designed based on attainment of 6 decimal inactivation of Listeria monocytogenes at geometric center of the pouch package by heating cycle, which was determined by general method. Heat penetration property of the package and thermal destruction kinetics were combined to estimate the retention of ascorbic acid and chlorophyll. Smaller packages with shorter pasteurization time gave better nutrient retention, physical and chemical qualities. Larger package size was estimated and confirmed experimentally to give higher pasteurization value at center, lower ascorbic acid and chlorophyll contents caused by longer heat process time. Lower pasteurization temperature with longer process time was predicted to give lower pasteurization value at center and lower ascorbic acid, while chlorophyll content was affected little by the temperature. Experimental trial showed better retention of ascorbic acid and chlorophyll for smaller package and higher pasteurization temperature with shorter heating time. The beneficial effect of smaller package and higher pasteurization temperature was also observed in texture, color retention and drip production.

Variation of Inflow Density Currents with Different Flood Magnitude in Daecheong Reservoir (홍수 규모별 대청호에 유입하는 하천 밀도류의 특성 변화)

  • Yoon, Sung-Wan;Chung, Se-Woong;Choi, Jung-Kyu
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.41 no.12
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    • pp.1219-1230
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    • 2008
  • Stream inflows induced by flood runoffs have a higher density than the ambient reservoir water because of a lower water temperature and elevated suspended sediment(SS) concentration. As the propagation of density currents that formed by density difference between inflow and ambient water affects reservoir water quality and ecosystem, an understanding of reservoir density current is essential for an optimization of filed monitoring, analysis and forecast of SS and nutrient transport, and their proper management and control. This study was aimed to quantify the characteristics of inflow density current including plunge depth($d_p$) and distance($X_p$), separation depth($d_s$), interflow thickness($h_i$), arrival time to dam($t_a$), reduction ratio(${\beta}$) of SS contained stream inflow for different flood magnitude in Daecheong Reservoir with a validated two-dimensional(2D) numerical model. 10 different flood scenarios corresponding to inflow densimetric Froude number($Fr_i$) range from 0.920 to 9.205 were set up based on the hydrograph obtained from June 13 to July 3, 2004. A fully developed stratification condition was assumed as an initial water temperature profile. Higher $Fr_i$(inertia-to-buoyancy ratio) resulted in a greater $d_p,\;X_p,\;d_s,\;h_i$, and faster propagation of interflow, while the effect of reservoir geometry on these characteristics was significant. The Hebbert equation that estimates $d_p$ assuming steady-state flow condition with triangular cross section substantially over-estimated the $d_p$ because it does not consider the spatial variation of reservoir geometry and water surface changes during flood events. The ${\beta}$ values between inflow and dam sites were decreased as $Fr_i$ increased, but reversed after $Fr_i$>9.0 because of turbulent mixing effect. The results provides a practical and effective prediction measures for reservoir operators to first capture the behavior of turbidity inflow.

Health Care Utilization Pattern and Its Related Factors of Low-income Population with Abnormal Results through Health Examination (저소득층 건강검진 유소견자의 의료이용 양상 및 관련요인)

  • Kwon, Bog-Soon;Kam, Sin;Han, Chang-Hyun
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.87-105
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    • 2003
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study was to examine the health care utilization pattern and its related factors of low-income population with abnormal results through health examination. Methods: Analysed data were collected through a questionnaire survey, which was given to 263 persons who 30 years or over with abnormal results through health examination at Health Center. This survey was conducted in March, 2003. This study employed Andersen's prediction model as most well known medical demand mode and data were analysed through 2-test, and multiple logistic regression analysis. Results: The proportion of medical utilization for thorough examination or treatment among study subjects was 51.0%. In multiple logistic regression analysis as dependent variable with medical utilization, the variables affecting the medical utilization were 'feeling about abnormal result(anxiety versus no anxiety: odds ratio 2.25, 95% confidence intervals 1.07-4.75)', 'type of health security(medicaid type I versus health insurance: odds ratio 2.82, 95% confidence intervals 1.04-7.66; medicaid type II versus health insurance: odds ratio 3.22, 95% confidence intervals 1.37-7.53)', 'experience of health examination during past 2 years(odds ratio 2.39, 95% confidence intervals 1.09-5.21)' and 'family member's response for abnormal result(recommendation for medical utilization versus no response: odds ratio 4.90, 95% confidence intervals 1.75-13.75; family member recommended to utilize medical facilities with him/her versus no response: odds ratio 19.47, 95% confidence intervals 5.01-75.73)'. The time of medical utilization was 8-15 days after they received the result(29.9%), 16-30 days after they receive the result(27.6%), 2-7 days after they received the result(20.9%) in order. The most important reason why they didn't take a medical utilization was that it seemed insignificant to them(32.4%). Conclusions: In order to promote medical utilization of low-income population, health education for abnormal result and its management would be necessary to family member as well as person with abnormal result. And follow-up management program for person with abnormal result through health examination such as home-visit health care would be necessary.

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Estimation of Primal Cuts Yields by Using Body Size Traits in Hanwoo Steer (한우 후대검정우의 체척형질을 통한 부분육 생산량 추정)

  • Lee, Jae Gu;Lee, Seung Soo;Cho, Kwang Hyun;Cho, Chungil;Choy, Yun Ho;Choi, Jae Gwan;Park, Byoungho;Na, Chong Sam;Roh, Seung Hee;Do, Changhee;Choi, Taejeong
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.55 no.5
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    • pp.373-380
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    • 2013
  • The study aimed to develop prediction models of primal cut yield using body measurements of Hanwoo steers in Korea. The progeny of 874 steers at Hanwoo Improvement Main Center from 2008 to 2010 were recorded. Pearson's correlation coefficients for primal cuts and other traits were estimated. Primal cuts were adjusted for slaughter date and age using the SAS GLM procedure. Afterwards, a stepwise regression was performed on each primal cut by fitting body measurement traits. An independent covariable was selected at the highest coefficient of determination with the greater fitness model using Mallows's Cp statistic. Results showed that primal cuts were significantly influenced by slaughter date (P<0.01). The age at slaughter, however, was only significant for the top round (P<0.05). There was a moderate to high correlation between chest girth and tenderloin (0.54), loin (0.74), and rib (0.80). Most primal cut percentages were negatively related to BFT. Similar negative to low positive correlations were observed for primal cut percentage and body size traits. In addition, a correlation of 0.21 was observed between rib percentage and chest girth. The regression of body measurements on the adjusted primal cuts were significant for later traits. Regression estimates revealed that wither height, body length, rump length, hip bone width, and chest girth are important for primal cut weight and percentage determination. In particular, chest girth was always important for primal cut weight estimates.

CARIES PREDICTION MODEL USING LASER FLUORESCENCE (레이저 형광법을 이용한 우식유발 예측모형)

  • Lee, Sang-Ho;Lee, Chang-Seop;Jeong, Yeon-Hwa
    • Journal of the korean academy of Pediatric Dentistry
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.16-24
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    • 2001
  • The purpose of this study was to evaluate the specificity, sensitivity, and diagnostic power of caries activity test using laser fluorescence. The subjects of this study were 50 children of $7\sim9$ years old. Fluorescence from initial carious lesion of teeth illuminated by an argon laser(480nm) was observed and photographed with barrier filter. Visual examination for the dDfFtT rate and Streptococcus mutans colony counting was done to evaluate correlation with caries activity test using laser fluorescence. Data analysis was accomplished by Axelsson's method. The results from the present study can be summarized as follows: 1. There was positive correlation $(\gamma=0.48)$ between laser fluorescence test and Streptococcus mutans count. And also positive correlation $(\gamma=0.39)$ exists between laser fluorescence test and dDfFtT rate (P<0.01). 2. Positive correlation $(\gamma=0.27)$ between Streptococcus mutans colony count and dDfFtT rate was found(P<0.05). 3. When dDfFtT rate was defined to standard testing method, the specificity, senstivity, and diagnostic power of laser fluorescence test were 44.4%, 85.7%, and 87.8%. 4. When dDfFtT rate was defined to standard testing method, the specificity, senstivity, and diagnostic power of S. mutans colony counting were 77.8%, 92.9%, 84.8%. 5. When S. mutans colony counting was defined to standard testing method, sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic power of laser fluorescence test were 40.0%, 84.8%, 95.1%. In regard to above results, laser fluorescence test considered to be accurate and reliable method for determining caries activity because of it's close relationship with caries susceptibility test and caries experience measurements. And it was also considered to be practical because it would be simple, inexpensive, and time saving method.

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Prediction of Nitrate Contamination of Groundwater in the Northern Nonsan area Using Multiple Regression Analysis (다중 회귀 분석을 이용한 논산 북부 지역 지하수의 질산성 질소 오염 예측)

  • Kim, Eun-Young;Koh, Dong-Chan;Ko, Kyung-Seok;Yeo, In-Wook
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.57-73
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    • 2008
  • Nitrate concentrations were measured up to 49 mg/L (as $NO_3$-N) and 22% of the samples exceeded drinking water standard in shallow and bedrock groundwater of the northern Nonsan area. Nitrate concentrations showed a significant difference among land use groups. To predict nitrate concentration in groundwater, multiple regression analysis was carried out using hydrogeologic parameters of soil media, topography and land use which were categorized as several groups, well depth and altitude, and field parameters of temperature, pH, DO and EC. Hydrogeologic parameters were quantified as area proportions of each category within circular buffers centering at wells. Regression was performed to all the combination of variables and the most relevant model was selected based on adjusted coefficient of determination (Adj. $R^2$). Regression using hydrogelogic parameters with varying buffer radii show highest Adj. $R^2$ at 50m and 300m for shallow and bedrock groundwater, respectively. Shallow groundwater has higher Adj. $R^2$ than bedrock groundwater indicating higher susceptibility to hydrogeologic properties of surface environment near the well. Land use and soil media was major explanatory variables for shallow and bedrock groundwater, respectively and residential area was a major variable in both shallow and bedrock groundwater. Regression involving hydrogeologic parameters and field parameters showed that EC, paddy and pH were major variables in shallow groundwater whereas DO, EC and natural area were in bedrock groundwater. Field parameters have much higher explanatory power over the hydrogeologic parameters suggesting field parameters which are routinely measured can provide important information on each well in assessment of nitrate contamination. The most relevant buffer radii can be applied to estimation of travel time of contaminants in surface environment to wells.

Plasma Levels of High Molecular Weight Adiponectin are Associated with Cardiometabolic Risks in Patients with Hypertension (고혈압 환자에서 혈장 고분자량 아디포넥틴 농도와 심장-대사위험인자와의 관련성 연구)

  • Chung, Hye-Kyung;Shin, Min-Jeong
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.41 no.8
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    • pp.733-741
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    • 2008
  • In the present study, we comprehensively examined the associations of plasma levels of total adiponectin and high molecular weight (HMW) adiponectin with the features of cardiometabolic risks including body fat distribution, dyslipidemia, insulin resistance and inflammatory markers in a cross-sectional study of 110 treated hypertensive patients. Blood lipid profiles, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA- IR) derived from fasting glucose and insulin concentrations were determined. Plasma levels of tumor necrosis factor-${\alpha}$ (TNF-${\alpha}$), interleukin-6 (IL-6) and intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1) were analyzed using ELISA. The results showed that plasma levels of HMW-adiponectin were negatively associated with body mass index (BMI, r = - 0.203, p < 0.05) and waist circumference (r = -0.307, p < 0.01), which was not shown in total adiponectin. Plasma levels of HMW-adiponectin were negatively associated with triglyceride (r = -0.223, p < 0.05) and positively associated with HDL-cholesterol (r = 0.228, p < 0.05). Plasma levels of adiponectin were positively associated with HDL-cholesterol (r = 0.224, p < 0.05). Plasma levels of HMW-adiponectin were negatively associated with hsCRP (r = -0.276, p < 0.01) and IL-6 (r = -0.272, p < 0.01). In addition, there were weak associations between plasma levels of HMWadiponectin and TNF-${\alpha}$ (r = -0.163, p = 0.07) and ICAM-1 (r = -0.158, p = 0.09). However, there were no significant associations of total adiponectin with inflammatory markers except hsCRP (r = -0.203, p < 0.05). Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis showed that only plasma levels of HMW-adiponectin was an independent factor influencing serum levels of hsCRP, a marker of systemic low grade inflammation, after adjusting for age, gender, BMI, waist circumference, alcohol intake, smoking status, blood lipids, total adiponectin and drug use (p < 0.01). These results suggest that HMW-adiponectin, rather than total adiponectin, is likely to be closely associated with the features of cardiometabolic risks in treated hypertensive patients and might be effective biomarker for the prediction of cardiovascular disease.

Prediction of Salvaged Myocardium in Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction after Primary Percutaneous Coronary Angioplasty using early Thallium-201 Redistribution Myocardial Perfusion Imaging (급성심근경색증의 일차적 관동맥성형술 후 조기 Tl-201 재분포영상을 이용한 구조심근 예측)

  • Choi, Joon-Young;Yang, You-Jung;Choi, Seung-Jin;Yeo, Jeong-Seok;Park, Seong-Wook;Song, Jae-Kwan;Moon, Dae-Hyuk
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.219-228
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    • 2003
  • Purpose: The amount of salvaged myocardium is an important prognostic factor in patients with acute myocardial infarction (MI). We investigated if early Tl-201 SPECT imaging could be used to predict the salvaged myocardium and functional recovery in acute MI after primary PTCA. Materials and Methods: In 36 patients with first acute MI treated with primary PTCA, serial echocardiography and Tl-201 SPECT imaging ($5.8{\pm}2.1$ days after PTDA) were performed. Regional wall motion and perfusion were quantified with on 16-segment myocardial model with 5-point and 4-point scaling system, respectively. Results: Wall motion was improved in 78 of the 212 dyssynergic segments on 1 month follow-up echocardiography and 97 on 7 months follow-up echocardiography, which were proved to be salvaged myocardium. The areas under receiver operating characteristic curves of Tl-201 perfusion score for detecting salvaged myocardial segments were 0.79 for 1 month follow-up and 0.83 for 7 months follow-up. The sensitivity and specificity of Tl-201 redistribution images with optimum cutoff of 40% of peak thallium activity for detecting salvaged myocardium were 84.6% and 55.2% for 1 month follow-up, and 87.6% and 64.3% for 7 months follow-up, respectively. There was a linear relationship between the percentage of peak thallium activity on early redistribution imaging and the likelihood of segmental functional improvement 7 months after reperfusion. Conclusion: Tl-201 myocardial perfusion SPECT imaging performed early within 10 days after reperfusion can be used to predict the salvaged myocardium and functional recovery with high sensitivity during the 7 months following primary PTCA in patients with acute MI.