• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.233-253
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• 2014

Can the stock market really be predicted? Stock market prediction has attracted much attention from many fields including business, economics, statistics, and mathematics. Early research on stock market prediction was based on random walk theory (RWT) and the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). According to the EMH, stock market are largely driven by new information rather than present and past prices. Since it is unpredictable, stock market will follow a random walk. Even though these theories, Schumaker [2010] asserted that people keep trying to predict the stock market by using artificial intelligence, statistical estimates, and mathematical models. Mathematical approaches include Percolation Methods, Log-Periodic Oscillations and Wavelet Transforms to model future prices. Examples of artificial intelligence approaches that deals with optimization and machine learning are Genetic Algorithms, Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Neural Networks. Statistical approaches typically predicts the future by using past stock market data. Recently, financial engineers have started to predict the stock prices movement pattern by using the SNS data. SNS is the place where peoples opinions and ideas are freely flow and affect others' beliefs on certain things. Through word-of-mouth in SNS, people share product usage experiences, subjective feelings, and commonly accompanying sentiment or mood with others. An increasing number of empirical analyses of sentiment and mood are based on textual collections of public user generated data on the web. The Opinion mining is one domain of the data mining fields extracting public opinions exposed in SNS by utilizing data mining. There have been many studies on the issues of opinion mining from Web sources such as product reviews, forum posts and blogs. In relation to this literatures, we are trying to understand the effects of SNS exposures of firms on stock prices in Korea. Similarly to Bollen et al. [2011], we empirically analyze the impact of SNS exposures on stock return rates. We use Social Metrics by Daum Soft, an SNS big data analysis company in Korea. Social Metrics provides trends and public opinions in Twitter and blogs by using natural language process and analysis tools. It collects the sentences circulated in the Twitter in real time, and breaks down these sentences into the word units and then extracts keywords. In this study, we classify firms' exposures in SNS into two groups: positive and negative. To test the correlation and causation relationship between SNS exposures and stock price returns, we first collect 252 firms' stock prices and KRX100 index in the Korea Stock Exchange (KRX) from May 25, 2012 to September 1, 2012. We also gather the public attitudes (positive, negative) about these firms from Social Metrics over the same period of time. We conduct regression analysis between stock prices and the number of SNS exposures. Having checked the correlation between the two variables, we perform Granger causality test to see the causation direction between the two variables. The research result is that the number of total SNS exposures is positively related with stock market returns. The number of positive mentions of has also positive relationship with stock market returns. Contrarily, the number of negative mentions has negative relationship with stock market returns, but this relationship is statistically not significant. This means that the impact of positive mentions is statistically bigger than the impact of negative mentions. We also investigate whether the impacts are moderated by industry type and firm's size. We find that the SNS exposures impacts are bigger for IT firms than for non-IT firms, and bigger for small sized firms than for large sized firms. The results of Granger causality test shows change of stock price return is caused by SNS exposures, while the causation of the other way round is not significant. Therefore the correlation relationship between SNS exposures and stock prices has uni-direction causality. The more a firm is exposed in SNS, the more is the stock price likely to increase, while stock price changes may not cause more SNS mentions.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.85-116
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• 2016

The present study aims to explore the causes of employment difficulty on the basis of job applicant's interest from P-E (person-environment) fit perspective. Our approach relied on a textual analytic method to reveal insights from their situational interests in a job search during the change of labor market. Thus, to investigate the type of major interests and psychological responses, user-generated texts in a social community were collected for analysis between January 1, 2013 through December 31, 2015 by crawling the online-community in regard to job seeking and sharing information and opinions. The results of topic analysis indicated user's primary interests were divided into four types: perception of vocation expectation, employment pre-preparation behaviors, perception of labor market, and job-seeking stress. Specially, job applicants put mainly concerns of monetary reward and a form of employment, rather than their work values or career exploration, thus youth job applicants expressed their psychological responses using contextualized language (e.g., slang, vulgarisms) for projecting their unstable state under uncertainty in response to environmental changes. Additionally, they have perceived activities in the restricted preparation (e.g., certification, English exam) as determinant factors for success in employment and suffered form job-seeking stress. On the basis of these findings, current unemployment matters are totally attributed to the absence of pursing the value of vocation and job in individuals, organizations, and society. Concretely, job seekers are preoccupied with occupational prestige in social aspect and have undecided vocational value. On the other hand, most companies have no perception of the importance of human resources and have overlooked the needs for proper work environment development in respect of stimulating individual motivation. The attempt in this study to reinterpret the effect of environment as for classifying job applicant's interests in reference to linguistic and psychological theories not only helps conduct a more comprehensive meaning for understanding social matters, but guides new directions for future research on job applicant's psychological factors (e.g., attitudes, motivation) using topic analysis.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.143-159
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• 2015

Predicting IT trends has been a long and important subject for information systems research. IT trend prediction makes it possible to acknowledge emerging eras of innovation and allocate budgets to prepare against rapidly changing technological trends. Towards the end of each year, various domestic and global organizations predict and announce IT trends for the following year. For example, Gartner Predicts 10 top IT trend during the next year, and these predictions affect IT and industry leaders and organization's basic assumptions about technology and the future of IT, but the accuracy of these reports are difficult to verify. Social media data can be useful tool to verify the accuracy. As social media services have gained in popularity, it is used in a variety of ways, from posting about personal daily life to keeping up to date with news and trends. In the recent years, rates of social media activity in Korea have reached unprecedented levels. Hundreds of millions of users now participate in online social networks and communicate with colleague and friends their opinions and thoughts. In particular, Twitter is currently the major micro blog service, it has an important function named 'tweets' which is to report their current thoughts and actions, comments on news and engage in discussions. For an analysis on IT trends, we chose Tweet data because not only it produces massive unstructured textual data in real time but also it serves as an influential channel for opinion leading on technology. Previous studies found that the tweet data provides useful information and detects the trend of society effectively, these studies also identifies that Twitter can track the issue faster than the other media, newspapers. Therefore, this study investigates how frequently the predicted IT trends for the following year announced by public organizations are mentioned on social network services like Twitter. IT trend predictions for 2013, announced near the end of 2012 from two domestic organizations, the National IT Industry Promotion Agency (NIPA) and the National Information Society Agency (NIA), were used as a basis for this research. The present study analyzes the Twitter data generated from Seoul (Korea) compared with the predictions of the two organizations to analyze the differences. Thus, Twitter data analysis requires various natural language processing techniques, including the removal of stop words, and noun extraction for processing various unrefined forms of unstructured data. To overcome these challenges, we used SAS IRS (Information Retrieval Studio) developed by SAS to capture the trend in real-time processing big stream datasets of Twitter. The system offers a framework for crawling, normalizing, analyzing, indexing and searching tweet data. As a result, we have crawled the entire Twitter sphere in Seoul area and obtained 21,589 tweets in 2013 to review how frequently the IT trend topics announced by the two organizations were mentioned by the people in Seoul. The results shows that most IT trend predicted by NIPA and NIA were all frequently mentioned in Twitter except some topics such as 'new types of security threat', 'green IT', 'next generation semiconductor' since these topics non generalized compound words so they can be mentioned in Twitter with other words. To answer whether the IT trend tweets from Korea is related to the following year's IT trends in real world, we compared Twitter's trending topics with those in Nara Market, Korea's online e-Procurement system which is a nationwide web-based procurement system, dealing with whole procurement process of all public organizations in Korea. The correlation analysis show that Tweet frequencies on IT trending topics predicted by NIPA and NIA are significantly correlated with frequencies on IT topics mentioned in project announcements by Nara market in 2012 and 2013. The main contribution of our research can be found in the following aspects: i) the IT topic predictions announced by NIPA and NIA can provide an effective guideline to IT professionals and researchers in Korea who are looking for verified IT topic trends in the following topic, ii) researchers can use Twitter to get some useful ideas to detect and predict dynamic trends of technological and social issues.

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.263-297
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• 2010

The relics of the Southeast Asian civilizations in the first phase are found with the relics from India, China, and even further West of Persia and Rome. These relics are the historic marks of the ancient interactions of various continents, mainly through the maritime trade. The traces of the indic culture, which appears in the historic age, are represented in the textual records and arts, regarded as the essence of the India itself. The ancient Hindu arts found in various locations of Southeast Asia were thought to be transplanted directly from India. However, Neither did the Gupta Hindu Art of India form the mainstream of the Gupta Art, nor did it play an influential role in the adjacent areas. The Indian culture was transmitted to Southeast Asia rather intermittently than consistently. If we thoroughly compare the early Hindu art of India and that of Southeast Asia, we can find that the latter was influenced by the former, but still sustained Southeast Asian originality. The reason that the earliest Southeast Asian Hindu art is discovered mostly in continental Southeast Asia is resulted from the fact that the earliest networks between India and the region were constructed in this region. Among the images of Hindu gods produced before the 7th century are Shiva, Vishnu, Harihara, and Skanda(the son of Shiva), and Ganesha(the god of wealth). The earliest example of Vishnu was sculpted according to the Kushan style. After that, most of the sculptures came to have robust figures and graceful proportions. There are a small number of images of Ganesha and Skanda. These images strictly follow the iconography of the Indian sculpture. This shows that Southeast Asians chose their own Hindu gods from the Hindu pantheon selectively and devoted their faiths to them. Their basic iconography obediently followed the Indian model, but they tried to transform parts of the images within the Southeast Asian contexts. However, it is very difficult to understand the process of the development of the Hindu faith and its contents in the ancient Southeast Asia. It is because there are very few undamaged Hindu temples left in Southeast Asia. It is also difficult to make sure that the Hindu religion of India, which was based on the complex rituals and the caste system, was transplanted to Southeast Asia, because there were no such strong basis of social structure and religion in the region. "Indianization" is an organized expansion of the Indian culture based on the sense of belonging to an Indian context. This can be defined through the process of transmission and progress of the Hindu or Buddhist religions, legends about purana, and the influx of various epic expression and its development. Such conditions are represented through the Sanskrit language and the art. It is the element of the Indian culture to fabricate an image of god as a devotional object. However, if we look into details of the iconography, style, and religious culture, these can be understood as a "selective reception of foreign religious culture." There were no sophisticated social structure yet to support the Indian culture to continue in Southeast Asia around the 7th century. Whether this phenomena was an "Indianization" or the "influx of elements of Indian culture," it was closely related to the matter of 'localization.' The regional character of each local region in Southeast Asia is partially shown after the 8th century. However it is not clear whether this culture was settled in each region as its dominant culture. The localization of the Indian culture in Southeast Asia which acted as a network connecting ports or cities was a part of the process of localization of Indian culture in pan-Southeast Asian region, and the process of the building of the basis for establishing an identity for each Southeast Asian region.