• Title/Summary/Keyword: Testing for parameter change

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The Consideration for Optimum 3D Seismic Processing Procedures in Block II, Northern Part of South Yellow Sea Basin (대륙붕 2광구 서해분지 북부지역의 3D전산처리 최적화 방안시 고려점)

  • Ko, Seung-Won;Shin, Kook-Sun;Jung, Hyun-Young
    • The Korean Journal of Petroleum Geology
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    • v.11 no.1 s.12
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    • pp.9-17
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    • 2005
  • In the main target area of the block II, Targe-scale faults occur below the unconformity developed around 1 km in depth. The contrast of seismic velocity around the unconformity is generally so large that the strong multiples and the radical velocity variation would deteriorate the quality of migrated section due to serious distortion. More than 15 kinds of data processing techniques have been applied to improve the image resolution for the structures farmed from this active crustal activity. The bad and noisy traces were edited on the common shot gathers in the first step to get rid of acquisition problems which could take place from unfavorable conditions such as climatic change during data acquisition. Correction of amplitude attenuation caused from spherical divergence and inelastic attenuation has been also applied. Mild F/K filter was used to attenuate coherent noise such as guided waves and side scatters. Predictive deconvolution has been applied before stacking to remove peg-leg multiples and water reverberations. The velocity analysis process was conducted at every 2 km interval to analyze migration velocity, and it was iterated to get the high fidelity image. The strum noise caused from streamer was completely removed by applying predictive deconvolution in time space and ${\tau}-P$ domain. Residual multiples caused from thin layer or water bottom were eliminated through parabolic radon transform demultiple process. The migration using curved ray Kirchhoff-style algorithm has been applied to stack data. The velocity obtained after several iteration approach for MVA (migration velocity analysis) was used instead or DMO for the migration velocity. Using various testing methods, optimum seismic processing parameter can be obtained for structural and stratigraphic interpretation in the Block II, Yellow Sea Basin.

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Comparative Evaluation on the Cost Analysis of Software Development Model Based on Weibull Lifetime Distribution (와이블 수명분포에 근거한 소프트웨어 개발모형의 비용 분석에 관한 비교 평가)

  • Bae, Hyo-Jeong
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.193-200
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    • 2022
  • In this study, the finite-failure NHPP software reliability model was applied to the software development model based on the Weibull lifetime distribution (Goel-Okumoto, Rayleigh, Type-2 Gumbe), which is widely used in the software reliability field, and then the cost attributes were compared and evaluated. For this study, failure time data detected during normal operation of the software system were collected and used, the most-likelihood estimation (MLE) method was applied to the parameter estimation of the proposed model, and the calculation of the nonlinear equation was solved using the binary method. As a result, first, in the software development model, when the cost of testing per unit time and the cost of removing a single defect increased, the cost increased but the release time did not change, and when the cost of repairing failures detected during normal system operation increased, the cost increased and the release time was also delayed. Second, as a result of comprehensive comparative analysis of the proposed models, it was found that the Type-2 Gumble model was the most efficient model because the development cost was lower and the release time point was relatively faster than the Rayleigh model and the Goel-Okumoto basic model. Third, through this study, the development cost properties of the Weibull distribution model were newly evaluated, and the analyzed data is expected to be utilized as design data that enables software developers to explore the attributes of development cost and release time.

Prediction of Urban Flood Extent by LSTM Model and Logistic Regression (LSTM 모형과 로지스틱 회귀를 통한 도시 침수 범위의 예측)

  • Kim, Hyun Il;Han, Kun Yeun;Lee, Jae Yeong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.273-283
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    • 2020
  • Because of climate change, the occurrence of localized and heavy rainfall is increasing. It is important to predict floods in urban areas that have suffered inundation in the past. For flood prediction, not only numerical analysis models but also machine learning-based models can be applied. The LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) neural network used in this study is appropriate for sequence data, but it demands a lot of data. However, rainfall that causes flooding does not appear every year in a single urban basin, meaning it is difficult to collect enough data for deep learning. Therefore, in addition to the rainfall observed in the study area, the observed rainfall in another urban basin was applied in the predictive model. The LSTM neural network was used for predicting the total overflow, and the result of the SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) was applied as target data. The prediction of the inundation map was performed by using logistic regression; the independent variable was the total overflow and the dependent variable was the presence or absence of flooding in each grid. The dependent variable of logistic regression was collected through the simulation results of a two-dimensional flood model. The input data of the two-dimensional flood model were the overflow at each manhole calculated by the SWMM. According to the LSTM neural network parameters, the prediction results of total overflow were compared. Four predictive models were used in this study depending on the parameter of the LSTM. The average RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) for verification and testing was 1.4279 ㎥/s, 1.0079 ㎥/s for the four LSTM models. The minimum RMSE of the verification and testing was calculated as 1.1655 ㎥/s and 0.8797 ㎥/s. It was confirmed that the total overflow can be predicted similarly to the SWMM simulation results. The prediction of inundation extent was performed by linking the logistic regression with the results of the LSTM neural network, and the maximum area fitness was 97.33 % when more than 0.5 m depth was considered. The methodology presented in this study would be helpful in improving urban flood response based on deep learning methodology.

A Study on the Data Driven Neural Network Model for the Prediction of Time Series Data: Application of Water Surface Elevation Forecasting in Hangang River Bridge (시계열 자료의 예측을 위한 자료 기반 신경망 모델에 관한 연구: 한강대교 수위예측 적용)

  • Yoo, Hyungju;Lee, Seung Oh;Choi, Seohye;Park, Moonhyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.73-82
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    • 2019
  • Recently, as the occurrence frequency of sudden floods due to climate change increased, the flood damage on riverside social infrastructures was extended so that there has been a threat of overflow. Therefore, a rapid prediction of potential flooding in riverside social infrastructure is necessary for administrators. However, most current flood forecasting models including hydraulic model have limitations which are the high accuracy of numerical results but longer simulation time. To alleviate such limitation, data driven models using artificial neural network have been widely used. However, there is a limitation that the existing models can not consider the time-series parameters. In this study the water surface elevation of the Hangang River bridge was predicted using the NARX model considering the time-series parameter. And the results of the ANN and RNN models are compared with the NARX model to determine the suitability of NARX model. Using the 10-year hydrological data from 2009 to 2018, 70% of the hydrological data were used for learning and 15% was used for testing and evaluation respectively. As a result of predicting the water surface elevation after 3 hours from the Hangang River bridge in 2018, the ANN, RNN and NARX models for RMSE were 0.20 m, 0.11 m, and 0.09 m, respectively, and 0.12 m, 0.06 m, and 0.05 m for MAE, and 1.56 m, 0.55 m and 0.10 m for peak errors respectively. By analyzing the error of the prediction results considering the time-series parameters, the NARX model is most suitable for predicting water surface elevation. This is because the NARX model can learn the trend of the time series data and also can derive the accurate prediction value even in the high water surface elevation prediction by using the hyperbolic tangent and Rectified Linear Unit function as an activation function. However, the NARX model has a limit to generate a vanishing gradient as the sequence length becomes longer. In the future, the accuracy of the water surface elevation prediction will be examined by using the LSTM model.

A Study on Startups' Dependence on Business Incubation Centers (창업보육서비스에 따른 입주기업의 창업보육센터 의존도에 관한 연구)

  • Park, JaeSung;Lee, Chul;Kim, JaeJon
    • Korean small business review
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.103-120
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    • 2009
  • As business incubation centers (BICs) have been operating for more than 10 years in Korea, many early stage startups tend to use the services provided by the incubating centers. BICs in Korea have accumulated the knowledge and experience in the past ten years and their services have been considerably improved. The business incubating service has three facets : (1) business infrastructure service, (2) direct service, and (3) indirect service. The mission of BICs is to provide the early stage entrepreneurs with the incubating service in a limited period time to help them grow strong enough to survive the fierce competition after graduating from the incubation. However, the incubating services sometimes fail to foster the independence of new startup companies, and raise the dependence of many companies on BICs. Thus, the dependence on BICs is a very important factor to understand the survival of the incubated startup companies after graduation from BICs. The purpose of this study is to identify the main factors that influence the firm's dependence on BICs and to characterize the relationships among the identified factors. The business incubating service is a core construct of this study. It includes various activities and resources, such as offering the physical facilities, legal service, and connecting them with outside organizations. These services are extensive and take various forms. They are provided by BICs directly or indirectly. Past studies have identified various incubating services and classify them in different ways. Based on the past studies, we classify the business incubating service into three categories as mentioned above : (1) business infrastructure support, (2) direct support, and (3) networking support. The business infrastructure support is to provide the essential resources to start the business, such as physical facilities. The direct support is to offer the business resources available in the BICs, such as human, technical, and administrational resources. Finally, the indirect service was to support the resource in the outside of business incubation center. Dependence is generally defined as the degree to which a client firm needs the resources provided by the service provider in order to achieve its goals. Dependence is generated when a firm recognizes the benefits of interacting with its counterpart. Hence, the more positive outcomes a firm derives from its relationship with the partner, the more dependent on the partner the firm must inevitably become. In business incubating, as a resident firm is incubated in longer period, we can predict that her dependence on BICs would be stronger. In order to foster the independence of the incubated firms, BICs have to be able to manipulate the provision of their services to control the firms' dependence on BICs. Based on the above discussion, the research model for relationships between dependence and its affecting factors was developed. We surveyed the companies residing in BICs to test our research model. The instrument of our study was modified, in part, on the basis of previous relevant studies. For the purposes of testing reliability and validity, preliminary testing was conducted with firms that were residing in BICs and incubated by the BICs in the region of Gwangju and Jeonnam. The questionnaire was modified in accordance with the pre-test feedback. We mailed to all of the firms that had been incubated by the BICs with the help of business incubating managers of each BIC. The survey was conducted over a three week period. Gifts (of approximately ₩10,000 value) were offered to all actively participating respondents. The incubating period was reported by the business incubating managers, and it was transformed using natural logarithms. A total of 180 firms participated in the survey. However, we excluded 4 cases due to a lack of consistency using reversed items in the answers of the companies, and 176 cases were used for the analysis. We acknowledge that 176 samples may not be sufficient to conduct regression analyses with 5 research variables in our study. Each variable was measured through multiple items. We conducted an exploratory factor analysis to assess their unidimensionality. In an effort to test the construct validity of the instruments, a principal component factor analysis was conducted with Varimax rotation. The items correspond well to each singular factor, demonstrating a high degree of convergent validity. As the factor loadings for a variable (or factor) are higher than the factor loadings for the other variables, the instrument's discriminant validity is shown to be clear. Each factor was extracted as expected, which explained 70.97, 66.321, and 52.97 percent, respectively, of the total variance each with eigen values greater than 1.000. The internal consistency reliability of the variables was evaluated by computing Cronbach's alphas. The Cronbach's alpha values of the variables, which ranged from 0.717 to 0.950, were all securely over 0.700, which is satisfactory. The reliability and validity of the research variables are all, therefore, considered acceptable. The effects of dependence were assessed using a regression analysis. The Pearson correlations were calculated for the variables, measured by interval or ratio scales. Potential multicollinearity among the antecedents was evaluated prior to the multiple regression analysis, as some of the variables were significantly correlated with others (e.g., direct service and indirect service). Although several variables show the evidence of significant correlations, their tolerance values range between 0.334 and 0.613, thereby demonstrating that multicollinearity is not a likely threat to the parameter estimates. Checking some basic assumptions for the regression analyses, we decided to conduct multiple regression analyses and moderated regression analyses to test the given hypotheses. The results of the regression analyses indicate that the regression model is significant at p < 0.001 (F = 44.260), and that the predictors of the research model explain 42.6 percent of the total variance. Hypotheses 1, 2, and 3 address the relationships between the dependence of the incubated firms and the business incubating services. Business infrastructure service, direct service, and indirect service are all significantly related with dependence (β = 0.300, p < 0.001; β = 0.230, p < 0.001; β = 0.226, p < 0.001), thus supporting Hypotheses 1, 2, and 3. When the incubating period is the moderator and dependence is the dependent variable, the addition of the interaction terms with the antecedents to the regression equation yielded a significant increase in R2 (F change = 2.789, p < 0.05). In particular, direct service and indirect service exert different effects on dependence. Hence, the results support Hypotheses 5 and 6. This study provides several strategies and specific calls to action for BICs, based on our empirical findings. Business infrastructure service has more effect on the firm's dependence than the other two services. The introduction of an additional high charge rate for a graduated but allowed to stay in the BIC is a basic and legitimate condition for the BIC to control the firm's dependence. We detected the differential effects of direct and indirect services on the firm's dependence. The firms with long incubating period are more sensitive to indirect service positively, and more sensitive to direct service negatively, when assessing their levels of dependence. This implies that BICs must develop a strategy on the basis of a firm's incubating period. Last but not least, it would be valuable to discover other important variables that influence the firm's dependence in the future studies. Moreover, future studies to explain the independence of startup companies in BICs would also be valuable.