• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제33권1호
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• pp.1-44
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• 2011

본 연구는 교역조건 충격이 경기 변동의 주요 동인으로 작용하는 동시에 비교 역재 부문이 존재하는 소규모 개방경제를 대상으로, 이론모형을 바탕으로 한 모의실험의 방법론을 이용하여 다양한 통화정책이 갖는 사회후생상의 함의를 정량적으로 검토한다. 본 연구의 주요 분석 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 교역조건 충격이 경기 변동을 야기하는 주요 동인으로 작용하는 경제의 경우에는, 비교역재 물가 인플레이션 타깃팅이 소비자 물가 인플레이션 타깃팅이나 고정환율제도와 비교하여 보다 높은 사회후생 수준을 제시할 수 있는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 비교역재 물가 인플레이션 타깃팅의 사회후생 개선효과는 교역조건 충격의 변동성이 커질수록, 반면 지속성은 낮을수록 확대되는 것으로 나타났다. 마지막으로 비교역재 물가 인플레이션 타깃팅의 사회후생 증진효과는 수입재 가격 변동보다는 국내 실질한계비용에 직접적으로 영향을 미치게 되는 수출재 가격 변동과 관련이 있는 것으로 드러났다.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제27권1호
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• pp.157-183
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• 2005

본 논문은 소규모 개방경제 모델을 이용하여 여러 가지 실물부문의 충격이 한국경제의 주요 거시변수에 미치는 영향을 동태 시뮬레이션 방법을 이용하여 분석하였다. 보다 현실적인 실물경제를 반영하기 위하여 기존의 경기변동 모델에 우리 경제의 특징적인 요소 몇 가지를 더하였다. 예를 들어, 수출재, 수입재 및 비교역재가 있는 재화시장과 채권시장을 통한 국제간 자본이동이 가능한 모델을 도입하였다. 특히 본 논문에서는 생산성 충격, 정부지출 충격 등의 국내 내부의 충격요인과 외부금리 및 교역조건충격 등의 외부 충격요인의 상대적인 역할을 비교하였다. 시뮬레이션 결과에 의하면, 교역조건의 개선은 투자, 생산 및 소비를 늘리고, 국제금리인하는 국내 투자에 상당한 정도의 긍정적인 효과가 있는 것으로 나타난다. 결론적으로, 본 논문은 우리 경제의 경기변동 정도가 아직도 외부충격에 의해 큰 영향을 받는다는 것을 보여준다.

• 통상정보연구
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• 제12권4호
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• pp.111-126
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• 2010

This paper provides an empirical investigation of the determinants of current accounts utilizing an exchange rate (ER), terms of trade (NET), industrial activity (IPI), world import volume (WIM), trade share of the China and Japan (CHJP), proportion of service trade (SERV). The period examined is 1991:1 through 2010:2. It is tested under different cases such as whether variables were cointegrated and whether there was an equilibrium relationship. The result showed that the hypothesis of no cointegrated vector could be rejected at the 5 percent level. The estimated error correction model showed that adjustment speed is fast. This paper also applies impulse-response functions to get additional information by considering the responses of the current account to the shocks of economic variables. The results indicate that current account responds negatively to industrial activity and proportion of service trade, and then decays very quickly.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.34-46
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• 2021

Purpose - This paper aims to analyze the impact of the terms of trade, export price, and import price on the Korean economy (that is, real GDP, CPI, money market rate, and real effective exchange rate), and vice versa in the simple vector autoregression. Design/methodology - We impose two assumptions, i.e., diagonality and bloc exogeneity, to correctly identify the impact of a factor to the others in the structural equation. With two contemporaneous assumptions in the structural VAR, this paper investigates the impacts of the terms of trade on the Korean economy and vice versa. Findings - Impulse responses to the shocks in the terms of trade and Korean economy show that 1) an impact of the terms of trade on the economy is different in export prices and in import prices. A higher export price is beneficial to the economy while a higher import price hurts the economy, and 2) an increase in real effective exchange rate and in interest rate constrains domestic production and lowers consumer prices. Originality/value - Unlike the conventional perception that a depreciation of a currency would promote exports and domestic production at the price of inflation, our result shows the opposite, and 3) real GDP and consumer prices are positively correlated. That is, an increase in real GDP does not only cause inflation, but an increase in consumer prices also promote domestic production. Yet, the only difference is that export prices and import prices end up higher with an increase in real GDP, but lower with inflation.

• 무역학회지
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• 제47권2호
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• pp.89-101
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• 2022

International remittances play a crucial role in the economic management of each country, especially in developing countries. Its functions are diverse, including procurement of foreign currency, serving as a cushion for the balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves by reducing the adverse external shocks, driving economic growth, easing the gap between the rich and the poor, and maintaining macroeconomic stability. However, previous studies on remittances have mainly focused on macro-and micro-economic aspects to analyze the determinants. Therefore, this study attempts to identify the determinants of remittances in 122 countries over the past 25 years from macroeconomic and educational aspects as well as institutional qualities. In addition, given the fact that almost all of the world's top 10 recipient countries in terms of GDP and total remittance size are developing countries, developed and developing countries are separated and analyzed for comparison, assuming that there may be a difference between the two groups. Results show that the coefficients of developed and developing countries are different in four areas: Control of Corruption (CC), Rule of Law (RL), Voice and Accountability (VA), and Regulatory Quality (RQ) among the six institutional variables of interest in this study. These results implicate that even the same institutions and policies should be applied and implemented differently depending on the circumstances of each country. In addition, as suggested by the World Bank, policymakers in all countries should double their policy efforts to lower the costs of remittance and improve access to the financial system for immigrants or dispatched workers to ensure a steady inflow of remittances.