• Title/Summary/Keyword: Temporal Evolution

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Identifying Temporal Pattern Clusters to Predict Events in Time Series

  • Heesoo Hwang
    • KIEE International Transaction on Systems and Control
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    • v.2D no.2
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    • pp.125-134
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    • 2002
  • This paper proposes a method for identifying temporal pattern clusters to predict events in time series. Instead of predicting future values of the time series, the proposed method forecasts specific events that may be arbitrarily defined by the user. The prediction is defined by an event characterization function, which is the target of prediction. The events are predicted when the time series belong to temporal pattern clusters. To identify the optimal temporal pattern clusters, fuzzy goal programming is formulated to combine multiple objectives and solved by an adaptive differential evolution technique that can overcome the sensitivity problem of control parameters in conventional differential evolution. To evaluate the prediction method, five test examples are considered. The adaptive differential evolution is also tested for twelve optimization problems.

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Spatial and Temporal Features of PM10 Evolution Cycle in the Korean Peninsula (한반도내 미세먼지 발생주기의 시공간분포 특성)

  • Jang, Jae-Hoon;Lee, Hwa-Woon;Lee, Soon-Hwan
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.189-202
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    • 2012
  • Power spectral analysis for $PM_{10}$ observed at 10 cities in the Korean Peninsula from 2004 to 2010 was carried out to examine the spatial and temporal features of $PM_{10}$ evolution cycle. The power spectrum analysis proposed 9 typical cycles (0.5 day, 1day, 5.4day, 8~10day, 19~21day, 26day, 56day, 180day and 365day) for $PM_{10}$ evolution and the cycles are strongly associated with dilution and transportation due to the meterological influence. The spectrum intensity of 5.4day and 26day $PM_{10}$ evolution cycles mainly depend on the advection cycles of synoptic pressures system and long-term variation of climatological forcing, respectively. The intensity of $PM_{10}$ evolution with longer temporal cycles than one day tends to be stronger in La ni$\tilde{n}$a period in comparison with that in El ni$\tilde{n}$o period. Mean of typical intensity of $PM_{10}$ evolution in La ni$\tilde{n}$a period estimated to be 30% larger than El ni$\tilde{n}$o period. Thus the global scale meteorological phenomena such as El ni$\tilde{n}$o and La ni$\tilde{n}$a also can influence the variation of wind system in the Korean Peninsula and $PM_{10}$ evolution. but global scale forcing tends to influence different manner for $PM_{10}$ evolution in accordance with its temporal cycles.

Dynamic Capacity Concept and its Determination for Managing Congested Flow (혼잡교통류 관리를 위한 동적 용량의 개념 및 산정방법)

  • Park, Eun-Mi
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.3 s.74
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    • pp.159-166
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    • 2004
  • The capacity concept presented in the Highway Capacity Manual is for steady-state traffic flow assuming that there is no restriction in downstream flowing, which is traditionally used for planning, design, and operational analyses. In the congested traffic condition, the control objective should be to keep the congested regime from growing and to recover the normal traffic condition as soon as possible. In this control case, it is important to predict the spatial-temporal pattern of congestion evolution or dissipation and to estimate the throughput reduction according to the spatial-temporal pattern. In this context, the new concept of dynamic capacity for managing congested traffic is developed in terms of spatial-temporal evolution of downstream traffic congestion and in view of the 'input' concept assuming that flow is restricted by downstream condition rather than the 'output' concept assuming that there is no restriction in downstream flowing (e.g. the mean queue discharge flow rate). This new capacity is defined as the Maximum Sustainable Throughput that is determined based on the spatial-temporal evolution pattern of downstream congestion. And the spatial-temporal evolution pattern is estimated using the Newell's simplified q-k model.

An Affordable Implementation of Kalman Filter by Eliminating the Explicit Temporal Evolution of the Background Error Covariance Matrix (칼만필터의 자료동화 활용을 위한 배경오차 공분산의 명시적 시간 진전 제거)

  • Lim, Gyu-Ho;Suh, Ae-Sook;Ha, Ji-Hyun
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.33-37
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    • 2013
  • In meteorology, exploitation of Kalman filter as a data assimilation system is virtually impossible due to simultaneous requirements of adjoint model and large computer resource. The other substitute of utilizing ensemble Kalman filter is only affordable by compensating an enormous usage of computing resource. Furthermore, the latter employs ensemble integration sets for evolving the background error covariance matrix by compensating the dynamical feature of the temporal evolution of weather conditions. We propose a new implementation method that works without the adjoint model by utilizing the explicit expression of the background error covariance matrix in backward evolution. It will also break a barrier in the evolution of the covariance matrix. The method may be applied with a slight modification to the real time assimilation or the retrospective analysis.

Investigation of Korean Precipitation Variability using EOFs and Cyclostationary EOFs (EOF와 CSEOF를 이용한 한반도 강수의 변동성 분석)

  • Kim, Gwang-Seob;Sun, Ming-Dong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.1260-1264
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    • 2009
  • Precipitation time series is a mixture of complicate fluctuation and changes. The monthly precipitation data of 61 stations during 36 years (1973-2008) in Korea are comprehensively analyzed using the EOFs technique and CSEOFs technique respectively. The main motivation for employing this technique in the present study is to investigate the physical processes associated with the evolution of the precipitation from observation data. The twenty-five leading EOF modes account for 98.05% of the total monthly variance, and the first two modes account for 83.68% of total variation. The first mode exhibits traditional spatial pattern with annual cycle of corresponding PC time series and second mode shows strong North South gradient. In CSEOF analysis, the twenty-five leading CSEOF modes account for 98.58% of the total monthly variance, and the first two modes account for 78.69% of total variation, these first two patterns' spatial distribution show monthly spatial variation. The corresponding mode's PC time series reveals the annual cycle on a monthly time scale and long-term fluctuation and first mode's PC time series shows increasing linear trend which represents that spatial and temporal variability of first mode pattern has strengthened. Compared with the EOFs analysis, the CSEOFs analysis preferably exhibits the spatial distribution and temporal evolution characteristics and variability of Korean historical precipitation.

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Analysis on the evolution of water resources situation in Qiandao Lake Basin from 1960 to 2020

  • DU Junkai;Qiu Yaqin
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.27-27
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    • 2023
  • To analyze the evolution of water resources in Qiandao Lake Basin under the condition of climate change, a WEP-L distributed hydrological model was established to simulate the water cycle process in the basin during 1960-2020. The Mann-Kendall non-parametric test method and Hurst index method were used to analyze the inter-annual variation and annual distribution characteristics of the total water resources in the basin. The multi-scale temporal and spatial distribution and evolution trend of water resources in Qiandao Lake Basin were evaluated. The results show that: (1) The WEP-L model has good simulation results in the Qiandao Lake basin, and the Nash coefficient rate is above 0.83 in the periodic period and above 0.85 in the verification period. (2) The water yield coefficient of the whole basin ranges from 0.436 to 0.630. The annual average total water resource is 12.25 billion m3, equivalent to 1176.4mm of water depth. The annual distribution process shows a unimodal structure, and the water depth of each sub-basin ranges from 742 mm to 1266 mm, and the spatial distribution is higher in the west and lower in the east. (3) The annual water resources series in the basin showed an insignificant upward trend, and the Hurst index was 0.86, indicating a continuous upward trend. From the perspective of monthly water resources, January and February increased significantly, the other months were not significant changes.

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A Study on Co-evolution on the Formation Process of Space and Network focused on Knowledge Intensive Industry (지식집약산업의 공간과 네트워크 형성과정에 대한 공진화적 고찰)

  • Choi, HaeOk
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.628-641
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    • 2012
  • This research investigates a dynamic mechanism underlying the co-evolution between network and space by applying hype-curve model, typical phenomenon which shows how new technologies and ideas initially adapted in the society. This study analysis the knowledge intensive industry of digital contents using social network analysis (SNA) in terms of structural, spatial, and temporal aspects, year of 2000, 2005, and 2010 focused on Seoul area. First of all, network and space establish 'inter-feedback' as a result of evolution and differentiation process. Second, it happen temporal 'delay' through the learning process stage of 'peak of inflated expectation' and 'trough of disillusionment.' As a result, Seoul develops with the technology commercialized-orient strategy affect government policy. This trend changes to technology-oriented development in Seoul area in the late of 2000 established 'self-organization' with geographical proximity organizations through learning process.

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Measurement of turbulent jet flow using dynamic PIV technique (Dynamic PIV를 이용한 난류 제트유동 해석)

  • Lee Sang-Joon;Jang Young-Gil;Kim Seok
    • 한국가시화정보학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2005.12a
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    • pp.36-39
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    • 2005
  • Information on temporal evolution of whole velocity fields is essential for physical understanding of a complicated turbulent flow and was obtainable using dynamic PIV because of advances of high-speed imaging technique, laser and electronics. A dynamic PIV systme consists of a high-speed CMOS camera having $1K\times1K$ pixels resolution at 1 KHz and a high-repetition Nd:Yag pulse laser. In order to validate its performance, the dynamic PIV system was applied to a turbulent jet whose Reynolds number is about 3000. The particle images of $1024\times512$ pixels were captured at a sampling rate of 4 KHz. The dynamic PIV system measured successfully the temporal evolution of instantaneous velocity fields of the turbulent jet, from which spectral analysis of turbulent structure was also feasible.

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Development of a Dynamic PIV System for Turbulent Flow Analysis (난류유동 해석을 위한 Dynamic PIV 시스템의 개발)

  • Lee Sang-Joon;Jang Young-Gil;Kim Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Visualization
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.71-77
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    • 2005
  • Information on temporal evolution of whole velocity fields are essential for physical understanding of a complicated turbulent flow. Due to advances of high-speed imaging technique, laser and electronics, high-speed digital cameras and high-repetition pulse lasers are commercially available in nowadays. A dynamic PIV system that can measure consecutive instantaneous velocity field with 1K$\times$ 1K pixels resolution at 1 fps was developed. It consists of a high-speed CMOS camera and a high-repetition Nd:YLF pulse laser. Theoretically, it can capture velocity fields at 20 fps with a reduced spatial resolution. In order to validate its performance, the dynamic PIV system was applied to a turbulent jet of which Reynolds number is about 3000. The particle images of 1024$\times$512 pixels were captured at a sampling rate of 4 KHz. The dynamic PIV system measured successfully the temporal evolution of instantaneous velocity fields of the turbulent jet, from which spectral analysis of turbulent structure was also feasible.

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Temporal Evolution and Ablation Mechanism of Laser-induced Graphite Plume at 355 nm

  • 최영구;임훙선;정광우
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.20 no.12
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    • pp.1501-1505
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    • 1999
  • Expansion dynamics of C$^{+}$ ions ejected from 355-nm laser ablation of graphite target in vacuum has been investigated by pulsed-field time-of-flight (TOF) mass spectrometry. A strong nonlinear dependence of the amount of desorbed C$^{+}$ ions on laser fluence is interpreted by the mechanism that C$^{+}$ ions are produced directly from the graphite via conversion of the multiphoton energy into thermal energy. The temporal evolution of C$^{+}$ ions was measured by varying the delay time of the ion repelling pulse with respect to the laser irradiation, which provides significant information on the ablated plume characterization. The TOF distributions of ablated ions showed a bimodal shape and could be fitted by shifted Maxwell-Boltzmann distributions. The velocity of the fast component increases with the delay time, whereas the slow component (< 500 m/s) exhibits a constant velocity. Also studied were the effects of the laser fluence on the energetics of C$^{+}$ ions.