• 제목/요약/키워드: Technical risk analysis

검색결과 281건 처리시간 0.026초

Probabilistic earthquake risk consideration of existing precast industrial buildings through loss curves

  • Ali Yesilyurt;Seyhan O. Akcan;Oguzhan Cetindemir;A. Can Zulfikar
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • 제37권6호
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    • pp.565-576
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    • 2024
  • In this study, the earthquake risk assessment of single-story RC precast buildings in Turkey was carried out using loss curves. In this regard, Kocaeli, a seismically active city in the Marmara region, and this building class, which is preferred intensively, were considered. Quality and period parameters were defined based on structural and geometric properties. Depending on these parameters, nine main sub-classes were defined to represent the building stock in the region. First, considering the mean fragility curves and four different central damage ratio models, vulnerability curves for each sub-class were computed as a function of spectral acceleration. Then, probabilistic seismic hazard analyses were performed for stiff and soft soil conditions for different earthquake probabilities of exceedance in 50 years. In the last step, 90 loss curves were derived based on vulnerability and hazard results. Within the scope of the study, the comparative parametric evaluations for three different earthquake intensity levels showed that the structural damage ratio values for nine sub-classes changed significantly. In addition, the quality parameter was found to be more effective on a structure's damage state than the period parameter. It is evident that since loss curves allow direct loss ratio calculation for any hazard level without needing seismic hazard and damage analysis, they are considered essential tools in rapid earthquake risk estimation and mitigation initiatives.

기술검토회의 진입조건 분석 및 적용 (Analysis of Technical Review Entry Criteria and Application)

  • 정세영;이홍기;김동운;최관범
    • 시스템엔지니어링학술지
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    • 제5권2호
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    • pp.27-34
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    • 2009
  • This paper analyze technical review entry criteria and review process based on system property, and review checklist to conform technical review is also showed. The execution of review is determined according to the preparation of review item and identification for risk element. Risk level should be mitigated before technical review by appropriate plan. This paper described the entering condition of technical review for developmental phase, and tailoring consideration for technical review condition. Described technical review entry criteria, review process, and tailoring consideration is applied to development of test equipment for ground ant-air missile system. Applied system specific technical review process, tailored entry condition for test equipment for ground ant-air missile system and review check list is showed and the effectiveness of described system specific technical review process is presented.

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Fragility-based rapid earthquake loss assessment of precast RC buildings in the Marmara region

  • Ali Yesilyurt;Oguzhan Cetindemir;Seyhan O. Akcan;Abdullah C. Zulfikar
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제88권1호
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    • pp.13-23
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    • 2023
  • Seismic risk assessment studies are one of the most crucial instruments for mitigating casualties and economic losses. This work utilizes fragility curves to evaluate the seismic risk of single-story precast buildings, which are generally favored in Marmara's organized industrial zones. First, the precast building stock in the region has been categorized into nine sub-classes. Then, seven locations in the Marmara region with a high concentration of industrial activities are considered. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments were conducted for both the soil-dependent and soil-independent scenarios. Subsequently, damage analysis was performed based on the structural capacity and mean fragility curves. Considering four different consequence models, 630 sub-class-specific loss curves for buildings were obtained. In the current study, it has been determined that the consequence model has a significant impact on the loss curves, hence, average loss curves were computed for each case investigated. In light of the acquired results, it was found that the loss ratio values obtained at different locations within the same region show significant variation. In addition, it was observed that the structural damage states change from serviceable to repairable or repairable to unrepairable. Within the scope of the study, 126 average loss functions were presented that could be easily used by non-experts in earthquake engineering, regardless of structural analysis. These functions, which offer loss ratios for varying hazard levels, are valuable outputs that allow preliminary risk assessment in the region and yield sensible outcomes for insurance activities.

아웃소싱의 리스크가 기업성과에 미치는 영향 (Impact of Outsourcing Risk on Corporate Performance)

  • 김락상
    • 디지털융복합연구
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    • 제19권2호
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    • pp.175-182
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    • 2021
  • 본 연구에서는 제조 및 유통 중소기업을 대상으로 ITO 실행에서 발생할 수 있는 리스크가 기업성과에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지에 대해 실증분석하였다. ITO로 비용절감이나 경쟁력을 확보하려는 중소기업들이 ITO의 리스크를 파악하고 분석하여 기업성과를 향상시키기 위한 목적으로 연구를 진행하였다. 설문조사방법으로 분석하기 위해 전략 리스크, 기술 리스크, 재무 리스크를 독립변수로 선정하였다. 그리고 관계 리스크를 매개변수로 선정하였고, 기업성과를 종속변수로 선정하여 경로분석을 실시하였다. 분석결과 독립변수로 투입된 변수들은 기업성과에 간접효과와 총효과가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 전략 및 기술 리스크와 재무 리스크의 인식수준이 높을수록 관계리스크수준도 높아지게 되고, 따라서 기업성과에도 긍정적인 영향을 미치게 되는 것으로 해석할 수 있다. 향후 더 많고 다양한 리스크 요인들의 분석을 통해 기업성과를 개선할 수 있을 것으로 기대한다.

Probabilistic time-dependent sensitivity analysis of HPC bridge deck exposed to chlorides

  • Ghosh, Pratanu;Konecny, Petr;Lehner, Petr;Tikalsky, Paul J.
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • 제19권3호
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    • pp.305-313
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    • 2017
  • A robust finite element based reinforced concrete bridge deck corrosion initiation model is applied for time-dependent probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The model is focused on uncertainties in the governing parameters that include variation of high performance concrete (HPC) diffusion coefficients, concrete cover depth, surface chloride concentration, holidays in reinforcements, coatings and critical chloride threshold level in several steel reinforcements. The corrosion initiation risk is expressed in the form of probability over intended life span of the bridge deck. Conducted study shows the time-dependent sensitivity analysis to evaluate the significance of governing parameters on chloride ingress rate, various steel reinforcement protection and the corrosion initiation likelihood. Results from this probabilistic analysis provide better insight into the effect of input parameters variation on the estimate of the corrosion initiation risk for the design of concrete structures in harsh chloride environments.

우주 발사체 추진기관의 위험 관리 (Risk Management of Launch Vehicle Propulsion System)

  • 조상연;신명호;고정환;오승협;박정주
    • 한국추진공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국추진공학회 2007년도 제28회 춘계학술대회논문집
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    • pp.3-6
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    • 2007
  • 한국항공우주연구원에서는 소형의 위성을 원하는 궤도에 투입할 수 있는 최초의 민간 로켓인 KSLV-I을 개발하고 있다. 우주 발사체의 개발에는 큰 스케일과 복잡성, 그리고 기술적 난점에 의한 수많은 불확실성이 존재한다. 이러한 불확실성은 사업적 측면에서는 일정의 차질, 비용의 증가 등을 야기하고 기술적 측면에서는 서브시스템이나 부품단위의 설계 변경 등을 가져오게 된다. 이 연구는 발사체 추진기관에 있어서 fault tree analysis (FTA)를 이용한 기술적 위험 식별과 위험 분석 및 완화의 과정을 보여주고자 한다.

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Cyber Threat and Vulnerability Analysis-based Risk Assessment for Smart Ship

  • Jeoungkyu Lim;Yunja Yoo
    • 해양환경안전학회지
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    • 제30권3호
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    • pp.263-274
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    • 2024
  • The digitization of ship environments has increased the risk of cyberattacks on ships. The smartization and automation of ships are also likely to result in cyber threats. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has discussed the establishment of regulations at the autonomous level and has revised existing agreements by dividing autonomous ships into four stages, where stages 1 and 2 are for sailors who are boarding ships while stages 3 and 4 are for those not boarding ships. In this study, the level of a smart ship was classified into LEVELs (LVs) 1 to 3 based on the autonomous levels specified by the IMO. Furthermore, a risk assessment for smart ships at various LVs in different risk scenarios was conducted The cyber threats and vulnerabilities of smart ships were analyzed by dividing them into administrative, physical, and technical security; and mitigation measures for each security area were derived. A total of 22 cyber threats were identified for the cyber asset (target system). We inferred that the higher the level of a smart ship, the greater the hyper connectivity and the remote access to operational technology systems; consequently, the greater the attack surface. Therefore, it is necessary to apply mitigation measures using technical security controls in environments with high-level smart ships.

API-581에 의한 정량적 위험기반검사에서 스테인리스강의 외부부식에 의한 사고발생 가능성 해석 (- Analysis of Likelihood of Failure for the External Corrosion of Stainless Steel through the Quantitative Risk Based Inspection Using API-581 -)

  • 이헌창;김환주;김태옥
    • 대한안전경영과학회지
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    • 제6권3호
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    • pp.99-107
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    • 2004
  • Likelihood of failure (LOF) for the external corrosion of stainless steel, which affect to a risk of facilities, was analyzed quantitatively through the risk based inspection using API-581 BRD. We found that the technical module subfactor (TMSF) decreased as the inspection number increased and it increased as the inspection effectiveness and the used year increased, and that the TMSF showed high value for the case of the marine/cooling tower drift area as a corrosion driver, In this condition, the LOF for the external corrosion of stainless steel had lower than that for the carbon and low alloy steels

API-581에 의한 정량적 위험기반검사에서 탄소강 및 저합금강의 외부부식에 치한 사고발생 가능성 해석 (- Analysis of Likelihood of Failure for the External Corrosion of Carbon and Low Alloy Steels through the Quantitative Risk Based Inspection using API-581 -)

  • 이헌창;김환주;장서일;김태옥
    • 대한안전경영과학회지
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    • 제6권4호
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    • pp.239-248
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    • 2004
  • Likelihood of failure for the external corrosion of carbon and low alloy steels, which affect to a risk of facilities, was analyzed quantitatively through the risk based inspection using API-581 BRD. We found that the technical module subfactor (TMSF) decreased as the inspection number increased and it increased as the Inspection effectiveness and the used year increased. In this condition, the TMSF showed high value for the case of the marine/cooling tower drift area as a corrosion driver, poor quality of coating, no insulation, and low insulation condition.

위험기반검사에서 고온 $H_2S/H_2$ 부식에 의한 사고발생 가능성 해석 (Analysis of Likelihood of Failure for the Corrosion of High Temperature $H_2S/H_2$ through Risk Based-Inspection)

  • 이헌창;이중희;김태옥
    • 대한안전경영과학회지
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    • 제8권2호
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    • pp.61-70
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    • 2006
  • The likelihood of failure by the corrosion of high temperature $H_2S/H_2$, which affect to a risk of facilities, was analyzed through the risk based-inspection using API-581 BRD. We found that the corrosion rate was increased as temperature and $H_2S$ concentration were increased. Also, the technical module subfactor(TMSF) was increased as an used you increased, material thickness decreased, inspection number decreased, and inspection effectiveness increased. In these conditions, the maximum value of TMSF was not varied, but the TMSF was sensitively varied at low temperature for high concentration of $H_2S$.