• 제목/요약/키워드: System Programming

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초기 시청시간 패턴 분석을 통한 대흥행 드라마 예측 (Prediction of a hit drama with a pattern analysis on early viewing ratings)

  • 남기환;성노윤
    • 지능정보연구
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    • 제24권4호
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    • pp.33-49
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    • 2018
  • TV 드라마는 타 장르에 비해 시청률과 채널 홍보 효과가 매우 크며, 한류를 통해 산업적 효과와 문화적 영향력을 확인시켜줬다. 따라서, 이와 같은 드라마의 흥행 여부를 예측하는 일은 방송 관련 산업에서 매우 중요한 부분임은 주지의 사실이다. 이를 위해서 본 연구에서는 2003년부터 2012년까지 10년간, 지상파 채널을 통해 방송된, 총 280개의 TV 미니시리즈 드라마를 분석하였다. 이들 드라마 중 평균 시청률 상위 45개, 하위 시청률 45개를 선정하여 흥행 드라마의 시청시간 분포 (5%~100%, 11-Step) 모형을 만들었다. 이들 기준 모형과 신규 드라마의 시청시간 분포와의 이격 거리를 Euclidean/Correlation으로 측정한 유사도(Similarity)를 통해, 시청자의 초기(1~5회) 시청시간 분포로 신규 드라마의 성패 여부를 예측하는 모델을 만들었다. 또한 총 방송 시간 중 70% 이상 시청한 시청자를 열혈 시청층(이하 열혈층) 으로 분류하고, 상위/하위 드라마의 평균값과 비교하여, 신규 드라마의 흥행여부를 판별할 수 있도록 설계하였다. 연구 결과 드라마의 초반 시청자 충성도(시청시간)는 드라마의 대흥행 여부를 예측하는데 중요한 요소임을 밝혔으며, 최대 75.47%의 확률로 대흥행 드라마의 탄생을 예측할 수 있었다.

방화범죄의 실태와 그 대책 - 관심도와 동기의 다양화에 대한 대응 - (The Reserch on Actual Condition of Crime of Arson Which Occurs in Korea and Its Countermeasures)

  • 최종태
    • 시큐리티연구
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    • 제1호
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    • pp.371-408
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    • 1997
  • This article is the reserch on actual condition of crime of arson which occurs in Korea and its countermeasures. The the presented problem in this article are that (1) we have generally very low rate concern about the crime of arson contrary to realistic problems of rapid increase of crime of arson (2) as such criminal motives became so diverse as to the economic or criminal purpose unlike characteristic and mental deficiency of old days, and to countermeasure these problems effectively it presentation the necessity of systemantic research. Based on analysis of reality of arson, the tendency of this arson in Korea in the ratio of increase is said to be higher than those in violence crime or general fire rate. and further its rate is far more greater than those of the U.S.A. and Japan. Arson is considered to be a method of using fire as crime and in case of presently residence to be the abject, it is a public offense crime which aqccompany fatality in human life. This is the well It now fact to all of us. And further in order to presentation to the crime of arson, strictness of criminal law (criminal law No, 164 and 169, and fire protection law No. 110 and 111) and classification of arsonist as felony are institutionary reinforced to punish with certainty of possibility, Therefore, as tendency of arson has been increased compared to other nations, it is necessary to supplement strategical policy to bring out overall concerns of the seriousness of risk and damage of arson, which have been resulted from the lack of understanding. In characteristics analysis of crime of arson, (1) It is now reveald that, in the past such crime rate appeared far more within the boundary of town or city areas in the past, presently increased rate of arsons in rural areas are far more than in the town or small city areas, thereby showing characteristics of crime of arson extending nation wide. (2) general timetable of arson shows that night more than day time rate, and reveald that is trait behavior in secrecy.(3) arsonists are usually arrested at site or by victim or report of third person(82,9%).Investigation activities or self surrenders rate only 11.2%. The time span of arrest is normally the same day of arson and at times it takes more than one year to arrest. This reveals its necessity to prepare for long period of time for arrest, (4) age rate of arson is in their thirties mostly as compared to homicide, robbery and adultery, and considerable numbers of arsons are in old age of over fifties. It reveals age rate is increased (5) Over half of the arsonists are below the junior high school (6) the rate of convicts by thier records is based on first offenders primarily and secondly more than 4 time convicts. This apparently shows necessity of effective correctional education policy for their social assimilation together with re-investigation of human education at the primary and secondary education system in thier life. The examples of motivation for arosnits, such as personal animosity, fury, monetary swindle, luscious purpose and other aims of destroying of proof, and other social resistance, violence including ways of threatening, beside the motives of individual defects, are diverse and arsonic suicide and specifically suicidal accompany together keenly manifested. When we take this fact with the criminal theory, it really reveals arsons of crime are increasing and its casualities are serious and a point as a way of suicide is the anomie theory of Durkheim and comensurate with the theory of that of Merton, Specifically in the arson of industrial complex, it is revealed that one with revolutionary motive or revolting motive would do the arsonic act. For the policy of prevention of arsons, professional research work in organizational cooperation for preventive activities is conducted in municipal or city wise functions in the name of Parson Taskforces and beside a variety of research institutes in federal government have been operating effectively to countermeasure in many fields of research. Franch and Sweden beside the U.S. set up a overall operation of fire prevention research funtions and have obtained very successful result. Japan also put their research likewise for countermeasure. In this research as a way of preventive fire policy, first, it is necessary to accomodate the legal preventitive activities for fire prevention in judicial side and as an administrative side, (1) precise statistic management of crime of arson (2) establishment of professional research functions or a corporate (3) improvement of system for cooperative structural team for investigation of fires and menpower organization of professional members. Secondly, social mentality in individual prospect, recognition of fires by arson and youth education of such effect, educational program for development and practical promotion. Thirdly, in view of environmental side, the ways of actual performance by programming with the establishment of cooperative advancement in local social function elements with administrative office, habitants, school facilities and newspapers measures (2) establishment of personal protection where weak menpowers are displayed in special fire prevention measures. These measures are presented for prevention of crime of arson. The control of crime and prevention shall be prepared as a means of self defence by the principle of self responsibility Specifically arsonists usually aims at the comparatively weak control of fire prevention is prevalent and it is therefore necessary to prepare individual facilities with their spontaneous management of fire prevention instead of public municipal funtures of local geverment. As Clifford L. Karchmer asserted instead of concerns about who would commit arson, what portion of area would be the target of the arson. It is effective to minister spontaveously the fire prevention measure in his facility with the consideration of characteristics of arson. On the other hand, it is necessary for the concerned personnel of local goverment and groups to distribute to the local society in timely manner for new information about the fire prevention, thus contribute to effective result of fire prevention result. In consideration of these factors, it is inevitable to never let coincide with the phemonemon of arsons in similar or mimic features as recognized that these could prevail just an epedemic as a strong imitational attitude. In processing of policy to encounter these problems, it is necessary to place priority of city policy to enhancement of overall concerns toward the definitive essense of crime of arson.

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전역 토픽의 지역 매핑을 통한 효율적 토픽 모델링 방안 (Efficient Topic Modeling by Mapping Global and Local Topics)

  • 최호창;김남규
    • 지능정보연구
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    • 제23권3호
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    • pp.69-94
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    • 2017
  • 최근 빅데이터 분석 수요의 지속적 증가와 함께 관련 기법 및 도구의 비약적 발전이 이루어지고 있으며, 이에 따라 빅데이터 분석은 소수 전문가에 의한 독점이 아닌 개별 사용자의 자가 수행 형태로 변모하고 있다. 또한 전통적 방법으로는 분석이 어려웠던 비정형 데이터의 활용 방안에 대한 관심이 증가하고 있으며, 대표적으로 방대한 양의 텍스트에서 주제를 도출해내는 토픽 모델링(Topic Modeling)에 대한 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있다. 전통적인 토픽 모델링은 전체 문서에 걸친 주요 용어의 분포에 기반을 두고 수행되기 때문에, 각 문서의 토픽 식별에는 전체 문서에 대한 일괄 분석이 필요하다. 이로 인해 대용량 문서의 토픽 모델링에는 오랜 시간이 소요되며, 이 문제는 특히 분석 대상 문서가 복수의 시스템 또는 지역에 분산 저장되어 있는 경우 더욱 크게 작용한다. 따라서 이를 극복하기 위해 대량의 문서를 하위 군집으로 분할하고, 각 군집별 분석을 통해 토픽을 도출하는 방법을 생각할 수 있다. 하지만 이 경우 각 군집에서 도출한 지역 토픽은 전체 문서로부터 도출한 전역 토픽과 상이하게 나타나므로, 각 문서와 전역 토픽의 대응 관계를 식별할 수 없다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 전체 문서를 하위 군집으로 분할하고, 각 하위 군집에서 대표 문서를 추출하여 축소된 전역 문서 집합을 구성하고, 대표 문서를 매개로 하위 군집에서 도출한 지역 토픽으로부터 전역 토픽의 성분을 도출하는 방안을 제시한다. 또한 뉴스 기사 24,000건에 대한 실험을 통해 제안 방법론의 실무 적용 가능성을 평가하였으며, 이와 함께 제안 방법론에 따른 분할 정복(Divide and Conquer) 방식과 전체 문서에 대한 일괄 수행 방식의 토픽 분석 결과를 비교하였다.