• 지식경영연구
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.95-109
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• 2010

The objectives of this study are to identify the survival function (hazard function) of small and medium enterprises by using technology rating data for the companies guaranteed by Korea Technology Finance Corporation (KOTEC), and to figure out the factors that affects their survival. To serve the purposes, this study uses Kaplan-Meier Analysis as a non-parametric method and Cox proportional hazards model as a semi-parametric one. The 17,396 guaranteed companies that assessed from July 1st in 2005 to December 31st in 2009 are selected as samples (16,504 censored data and 829 accident data). The survival time is computed with random censoring (Type III) from July in 2005 as a starting point. The results of the analysis show that Kaplan-Meier Analysis and Cox proportional hazards model are able to readily estimate survival and hazard function and to perform comparative study among group variables such as industry and technology rating level. In particular, Cox proportional hazards model is recognized that it is useful to understand which technology rating items are meaningful to company's survival and how much they affect it. It is considered that these results will provide valuable knowledge for practitioners to find and manage the significant items for survival of the guaranteed companies through future technology rating.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제15권9호
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• pp.4049-4054
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• 2014

Background: Race and ethnicity are significant factors in predicting survival time of breast cancer patients. In this study, we applied advanced statistical methods to predict the survival of White non-Hispanic female breast cancer patients, who were diagnosed between the years 1973 and 2009 in the United States (U.S.). Materials and Methods: Demographic data from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database were used for the purpose of this study. Nine states were randomly selected from 12 U.S. cancer registries. A stratified random sampling method was used to select 2,000 female breast cancer patients from these nine states. We compared four types of advanced statistical probability models to identify the best-fit model for the White non-Hispanic female breast cancer survival data. Three model building criterion were used to measure and compare goodness of fit of the models. These include Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC), and Deviance Information Criteria (DIC). In addition, we used a novel Bayesian method and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique to determine the posterior density function of the parameters. After evaluating the model parameters, we selected the model having the lowest DIC value. Using this Bayesian method, we derived the predictive survival density for future survival time and its related inferences. Results: The analytical sample of White non-Hispanic women included 2,000 breast cancer cases from the SEER database (1973-2009). The majority of cases were married (55.2%), the mean age of diagnosis was 63.61 years (SD = 14.24) and the mean survival time was 84 months (SD = 35.01). After comparing the four statistical models, results suggested that the exponentiated Weibull model (DIC= 19818.220) was a better fit for White non-Hispanic females' breast cancer survival data. This model predicted the survival times (in months) for White non-Hispanic women after implementation of precise estimates of the model parameters. Conclusions: By using modern model building criteria, we determined that the data best fit the exponentiated Weibull model. We incorporated precise estimates of the parameter into the predictive model and evaluated the survival inference for the White non-Hispanic female population. This method of analysis will assist researchers in making scientific and clinical conclusions when assessing survival time of breast cancer patients.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.151-161
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• 1998

본 논문에서는 Koziol-Green 모형에서 생존함수에 대한 신뢰구간을 붓스트랩 방법을 이용하여 제안하고, 생존함수에 대한 붓스트랩 추정량의 일치성을 밝힌다. 또한 제안된 붓스트랩 신뢰구간들을 기존의 근사적 정규분포를 이용한 신뢰구간과 생존함수에 변수변환을 고려하여 구성한 신뢰구간들과 모의실험을 통하여 비교한 결과 제안된 붓스트랩 신뢰구간이 기존의 방법보다 포함확률 측면에서 더 좋은 결과를 보였고 중도절단율에 덜 민감한다는 것을 보여 주었다.

• Parasites, Hosts and Diseases
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• 제38권4호
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• pp.263-266
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• 2000

An outbreak of vivax malaria has been occurring in northern part of Kyonggi-do and north-western part of Kangwon-do, where are located near the demilitarized Zone, since 1993. For understanding of epidemiological features of malaria, the probability of daily survival of Anopheles sinensis, the vector species of malaria was compared in malarious and non-malarious areas in July-August, 2000. Total 915 females collected at three locations in malarious areas were dissected for ovaries, and 64.6% of the parous rate was found. Total 758 females collected at three locations in non-malarious areas were dissected, and 57.8% of the parous rate was observed. It was estimated from the parous rates that the probability of daily survival of An. sinensis females was 0.864 in malarious areas and 0.850 in non-malarious areas, which was not significantly different.

• 한국공작기계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국공작기계학회 1997년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.265-270
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• 1997

Helical gear system is utilized to transmit motion between parallel shafts. The axial thrust loads on the shafts are existed. On each of the support shafts, at least one of the bearings should be able to support the axial loads. The reliability and life analysis are based on the two-parameter Weibull distribution lives of the component gears and bearings. The computer calculates the system lives and dynamic capacities of the components and their system. The system life is defined as the life of the component or the helical gear system at an output torque at which the probability of survival is ninety percent.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제50권6호
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• pp.61-71
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• 2008

An advanced model for assessing life cycle cost of the facility containing several subdivisions has been proposed with systems engineering approach. This model evaluates the maintenance cost in the sphere of the safety as well as in that of its functionality. The proposed approach has been shown to be more reasonable and practical than existing models. The serviceability and reasonability have been proved through evaluating life cycle cost of the reservoir which is a representative agricultural facility. In addition, the proposed method is helpful to make a maintenance strategy using the survival probability in the point of safety and functionality.

• 약학회지
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• 제56권1호
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• pp.66-69
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• 2012

This study aims to assess the aggregate contribution of new drugs to the increase in life expectancy. We constructed a panel data combining mortality data in KOSIS and a drug dataset generated by assigning new drugs listed in 2000~2009 to their respective ICD codes. We found that 10% increase in stock of new drug led to 0.13~0.27% increase in the probability of survival to age 65. Due to lack of disease-specific life table, we used indirect approach to estimate the effect of new drugs on longevity. Using ordinary least squares, the estimate of the probability of survival to age 65 (logarithm) on life expectancy for all ages was 24.92. In conclusion, the increase in life expectancy of the entire population in Korea between 2000 and 2009 resulting from NMEs is 1.95 years, which explains 46.6% of real increase in life expectancy.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제15권21호
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• pp.9453-9458
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• 2014

Background: Breast cancer is the second leading cause of cancer death for women in the United States. Differences in survival of breast cancer have been noted among racial and ethnic groups, but the reasons for these disparities remain unclear. This study presents the characteristics and the survival curve of two racial and ethnic groups and evaluates the effects of race on survival times by measuring the lifetime data-based half-normal model. Materials and Methods: The distributions among racial and ethnic groups are compared using female breast cancer patients from nine states in the country all taken from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer registry. The main end points observed are: age at diagnosis, survival time in months, and marital status. The right skewed half-normal statistical probability model is used to show the differences in the survival times between black Hispanic (BH) and black non-Hispanic (BNH) female breast cancer patients. The Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard ratio are used to estimate and compare the relative risk of death in two minority groups, BH and BNH. Results: A probability random sample method was used to select representative samples from BNH and BH female breast cancer patients, who were diagnosed during the years of 1973-2009 in the United States. The sample contained 1,000 BNH and 298 BH female breast cancer patients. The median age at diagnosis was 57.75 years among BNH and 54.11 years among BH. The results of the half-normal model showed that the survival times formed positive skewed models with higher variability in BNH compared with BH. The Kaplan-Meir estimate was used to plot the survival curves for cancer patients; this test was positively skewed. The Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard ratio for survival analysis showed that BNH had a significantly longer survival time as compared to BH which is consistent with the results of the half-normal model. Conclusions: The findings with the proposed model strategy will assist in the healthcare field to measure future outcomes for BH and BNH, given their past history and conditions. These findings may provide an enhanced and improved outlook for the diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer patients in the United States.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제15권20호
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• pp.8871-8876
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• 2014

Background: Postoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) of gastric carcinoma improves survival among high-risk patients. This study was undertaken to analyse long-term survival probability and the impact of certain covariates on the survival outcome in affected individuals. Materials and Methods: Between January 2000 and December 2005, 244 patients with gastric cancer underwent adjuvant radiotherapy (RT) in our institution. Data were retrieved retrospectively from patient files and analysed with SPSS version 21.0. Results: A total of 244 cases, with a male to female ratio of 2.2:1, were enrolled in the study. The median age of the patients was 52 years (range, 20-78 years). Surgical margin status was positive or close in 72 (33%) out of 220 patients. Postoperative adjuvant RT dose was 46 Gy. Median follow-up was 99 months (range, 79-132 months) and 23 months (range, 2-155 months) for surviving patients and all patients, respectively. Actuarial overall survival (OS) probability for 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year was 79%, 37%, 24% and 16%, respectively. Actuarial progression free survival (PFS) probability was 69%, 34%, 23% and 16% in the same consecutive order. AJCC Stage I-II disease, subtotal gastrectomy and adjuvant CRT were significantly associated with improved OS and PFS in multivariate analyses. Surgical margin status or lymph node dissection type were not prognostic for survival. Conclusions: Postoperative CRT should be considered for all patients with high risk of recurrence after gastrectomy. Beside well-known prognostic factors such as stage, lymph node status and concurrent chemotherapy, the type of gastrectomy was an important prognostic factor in our series. With our findings we add to the discussion on the definition of required surgical margin for subtotal gastrectomy. We consider that our observations in gastric cancer patients in our clinic can be useful in the future randomised trials to point the way to improved outcomes.

• Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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• 제32권9호
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• pp.3521-3523
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• 2011