• Title/Summary/Keyword: Surface Forecast,

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Error Analysis of Three Types of Satellite-observed Surface Skin Temperatures in the Sea Ice Region of the Northern Hemisphere (북반구 해빙 지역에서 세 종류 위성관측 표면온도에 대한 오차분석)

  • Kang, Hee-Jung;Yoo, Jung-Moon
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.139-157
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    • 2015
  • We investigated the relative errors of satellite-observed Surface Skin Temperature (SST) data caused by sea ice in the northern hemispheric ocean ($30-90^{\circ}N$) during April 16-24, 2003-2014 by intercomparing MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Ice Surface Temperature (IST) data with two types of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) SST data including one with the AIRS/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU) and the other with 'AIRS only'. The MODIS temperatures, compared to the AIRS/AMSU, were systematically up to ~1.6 K high near the sea ice boundaries but up to ~2 K low in the sea ice regions. The main reason of the difference of skin temperatures is that the MODIS algorithm used infrared channels for the sea ice detection (i.e., surface classification), while microwave channels were additionally utilized in the AIRS/AMSU. The 'AIRS only' algorithm has been developed from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA/GSFC) to prepare for the degradation of AMSU-A by revising part of the AIRS/AMSU algorithm. The SST of 'AIRS only' compared to AIRS/AMSU showed a bias of 0.13 K with RMSE of 0.55 K over the $30-90^{\circ}N$ region. The difference between AIRS/AMSU and 'AIRS only' was larger over the sea ice boundary than in other regions because the 'AIRS only' algorithm utilized the GCM temperature product (NOAA Global Forecast System) over seasonally-varying frozen oceans instead of the AMSU microwave data. Three kinds of the skin temperatures consistently showed significant warming trends ($0.23-0.28Kyr^{-1}$) in the latitude band of $70-80^{\circ}N$. The systematic disagreement among the skin temperatures could affect the discrepancies of their trends in the same direction of either warming or cooling.

A Prediction Model for Forecast of the Onset Date of Changmas (장마 시작일 예측 모델)

  • Lee, Hyoun-Young;Lee, Seung-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.112-122
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    • 1993
  • Since more than 50${\%}$ of annual precipitation in Korea falls during Changma, the rainy season of early summer, and Late Changma, the rainy season of late summer, forcasting the onset days Changmas, and the amount related rainfalls would be necessary not only for agriculture but also for flood-control. In this study the authors attempted to build a prediction model for the forecast of the onset date of Changmas. The onset data of each Changma was derived out of daily rainfall data of 47 stations for 30 years(1961~1990) and weather maps over East Asia. Each station represent any of the 47 districts of local forecast under the Korea Meteorological Administration. The average onset dates of Changma during the period was from 21 through 26 June. The dates show a tendency to be delayed in El Ni${\~{n}}o years while they come earlier than the average in La Nina years. In 1982, the year of El Ni${\~{n}}o, the date was 9 Julu, two weeks late compared with the average. The relation of sea surface temperature(SST) over Pacific and Northern hemispheric 500mb height to the Changma onset dates was analyzed for the prediction model by polynomial regression. The onset date of Changma over Korea was correlated with SST in May(SST${_(5)}{^\circ}$C) of the district (8${^\circ}$~12${^\circ}S, 136${^\circ}~148${^\circ}W)of equatirial middle Pacific and the 500mb height in March (MB${_(3)}$"\;"m)over the district of the notrhern Hudson Bay. The relation between this two elements can be expressed by the regression: Onset=5.888SST${_5}"\;"+"\;"0.047MB${_(3)}$"\;"-251.241. This equation explains 77${\%}$ of variances at the 0.01${\%}$ singificance level. The onset dates of Late Changma come in accordance with the degeneration of the Subtro-pical High over northern Pacific. They were 18 August in average for the period showing positive correlation(r=0.71) with SST in May(SST)${_(i5)}{^\circ}$C) over district of IndiaN Ocean near west coast of Australia (24${^\circ}$~32${^\circ}$S, 104${^\circ}$~112${^\circ}$E), but negativ e with SST in May(SST${_(p5)}{^\circ}$ over district (12${^\circ}$~20${^\circ}$S,"\;"136${^\circ}$~148${^\circ}$W)of equatorial mid Pacific (r=-0.70) and with the 500mb height over district of northwestern Siberia (r=-0.62). The prediction model for Late Changma can be expressed by the regression: Onset=706.314-0.080 MB-3.972SST${_(p5)}+3.896 SST${_(i5)}, which explains 64${\%}$ of variances at the 0.01${\%}$ singificance level.

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Simulation of Grape Downy Mildew Development Across Geographic Areas Based on Mesoscale Weather Data Using Supercomputer

  • Kim, Kyu-Rang;Seem, Robert C.;Park, Eun-Woo;Zack, John W.;Magarey, Roger D.
    • The Plant Pathology Journal
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.111-118
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    • 2005
  • Weather data for disease forecasts are usually derived from automated weather stations (AWS) that may be dispersed across a region in an irregular pattern. We have developed an alternative method to simulate local scale, high-resolution weather and plant disease in a grid pattern. The system incorporates a simplified mesoscale boundary layer model, LAWSS, for estimating local conditions such as air temperature and relative humidity. It also integrates special models for estimating of surface wetness duration and disease forecasts, such as the grapevine downy mildew forecast model, DMCast. The system can recreate weather forecasts utilizing the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis database, which contains over 57 years of archived and corrected global upper air conditions. The highest horizontal resolution of 0.150 km was achieved by running 5-step nested child grids inside coarse mother grids. Over the Finger Lakes and Chautauqua Lake regions of New York State, the system simulated three growing seasons for estimating the risk of grape downy mildew with 1 km resolution. Outputs were represented as regional maps or as site-specific graphs. The highest resolutions were achieved over North America, but the system is functional for any global location. The system is expected to be a powerful tool for site selection and reanalysis of historical plant disease epidemics.

Development and Validation of the Coupled System of Unified Model (UM) and PArameterized FOG (PAFOG) (기상청 현업 모형(UM)과 1차원 난류모형(PAFOG)의 접합시스템 개발 및 검증)

  • Kim, Wonheung;Yum, Seong Soo
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.149-154
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    • 2015
  • As an attempt to improve fog predictability at Incheon International Airport (IIA) we couple the 3D weather forecasting model currently operational in Korea Meteorological Administration (regional Unified Model, UM_RE) with a 1D turbulence model (PAFOG). The coupling is done by extracting the meteorological data from the 3D model and properly inserting them in the PAFOG model as initial conditions and external forcing. The initial conditions include surface temperature, 2 m temperature and dew point temperature, geostrophic wind at 850 hPa and vertical profiles of temperature and dew point temperature. Moisture and temperature advections are included as external forcing and updated every hr. To validate the performance of the coupled system, simulation results of the coupled system are compared to those of the 3D model alone for the 22 sea fog cases observed over the Yellow Sea. Three statistical indices, i.e., Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), linear correlation coefficient (R) and Critical Success Index (CSI), are examined, and they all indicate that the coupled system performs better than the 3D model alone. These are certainly promising results but more improvement is required before the coupled system can actually be used as an operational fog forecasting model. For the RMSE, R, and CSI values for the coupled system are still not good enough for operational fog forecast.

A Development of Washoff Model for Suspended Solids in Urban Areas (도시유역의 부유고형물 유출평가를 위한 쓸림모형 개발)

  • Joo, Jingul;Jung, Donghwi;Kim, Joonghoon;Park, Moojong
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.789-795
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    • 2010
  • Suspended Solid (SS) is one of the main pollutants and discharges with attached other pollutants such as heavy metal and toxic substance. It is very important to estimate and forecast the release characteristics of SS for water quality improvement. The current studies assumed that SS release rate is proportional to the rain intensity and suggested exponential washoff models. These models related to the shear force of flow. In this study, a new washoff model is suggested based on relation with SS release rate and mean flow rate of the basin surface which is closely related to the shear force. The proposed model is applied to the Goonja drainage district in Seoul, Korea. The new washoff model simulates the SS discharge more accurately in the various rainfall types. The model can be widely applied to the real problems such as the management of non-point source pollutant and the design of treatment facilities.

An Investigation into the Change Tendency of Interior Design in future Korean Apartments (우리나라 미래 아파트 실내디자인 변화전망에 관한 연구)

  • 지성수
    • Korean Institute of Interior Design Journal
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.38-45
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    • 2004
  • The co-operated residential form of the apartment has been with us for 30 years. The apartment is becoming the most popular form of residence, although there is still a few aspects of the apartment that need to be Improved. After the institution of the unrestrained house value in 1989 that started in Seoul, the main viewpoint of the suppliers the uniform characteristic idea has been adjusted to the various ideas and the viewpoint of the consumer. This has resulted in the prismatic composition of buildings, more stories, upgrading the quality of the design and a preference for wider space of the residence. In this study: (1) theplane surface of interior space and the design quality of the apartment from tile beginning of the 60s are considered. (2) The attribute of the apartment is grasped through analysis of the current (2002-2003) apartment within the country according to the various areas. The prediction of the future residential environment change is analyzed and as a consequence, the modification of the interior space is forecast and suggests the design trends of the apartment. I hope that this, investigation is helpful as it attempts to produce high quality residential space that reflects the harmony of technological development of the apartment and sentiment and emotion of the human being.

Impact of Rail Station Relocation on Urban Traffic Patterns: Simulation Analysis of Busan Station Alternatives (여객역(旅客驛)의 입지(立地)가 도시교통체계(都市交通體系)에 미치는 영향(影響) -부산역(釜山驛)의 대안별(代案別) 모의화(模擬化) 분석(分析)-)

  • Lee, Gun Young
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 1982
  • Presently, most of rail stations are situated on the surface of dowl1town and thus result in heavy traffic congestion and inefficient use of land. This paper analyzes the impact of alternative locations of station On urban traffic patterns by simulating transportation systems, of Busan city. Since location of station has long-term effects on land use and transportation, 20 years forecast of land use change, trip generation, trip distribution, modal split and network assignment was performed for each alternative, and aggregate Impacts On passenger-km and passenger-hour were computed. The result indicated that Bujeon is the most desirable location of station in terms of traffic movement, compared to the alternative locations of Sasang and existing station. Relocation of rail station, however, should be decided with broader analysis including other aspects, such as urban development, environment, construction and operating costs, etc.

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Effects of Experimental Drought on Soil CO2 Efflux in a Larix Kaempferi Stand

  • Kim, Beomjeong;Yun, Youngjo;Choi, Byoungkoo
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.253-257
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    • 2018
  • Climate models forecast more frequent and a longer period of drought events which may impact forest soil carbon dynamics, thereby altering the soil respiration (SR) rate. We examine the simulated drought effects on soil $CO_2$ effluxes from soil surface partitioning heterotrophic and autotrophic soil respiration sources. Three replicates of drought plots ($6{\times}6m$) were constructed with the same size of three control plots. We examined the relation between $CO_2$ and soil temperature and soil moisture, each being measured at a soil depth of 15 cm. We also compared which factor affected $CO_2$ efflux more under drought conditions. Total SR, autotrophic respiration (AR) and heterotrophic respiration (HR) were positively correlated with soil temperature (p < 0.05), and the relationships were stronger in roof plots than in control plots. Total SR, AR, and HR were negatively correlated only in roof plots, and the only HR showed a significant correlation (p < 0.05, r = -0.59). Soil respiration rates were more influenced by soil temperature than by soil moisture, and this relationship was more evident under drought conditions.

Analysis of Anisotropic Turbulent Heat Transfer in Nuclear Fuel Bundles (핵연료 집합체내의 비등방성 난류 열전달에 관한 해석적 연구)

  • Kim, Sin;Park, Goon-Cherl
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.35-46
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    • 1988
  • The prediction of clad surface temperatures is important to the design and the safety anlaysis of nuclear reactor. The accurate prediction requires the detailed knowledge of the flow structure and heat transfer, which is complicate due to anisotropic turbulent phenomena. A two-equation model including anisotropic eddy viscosity model is applied to forecast the velocity distribution. And the temperature field is calculated with uniform wall heat flux. The Galerkin's weighted residual finite element method has been used to calculate the turbulent quantities right up to the wall. The numerical results show good agreement with available data and that turbulence anisotropy strongly affects on the mean flow and thus the temperature field. And Nu-P/D correlation is established for sodium coolant in close-packed equilateral triangular bundle in the P/D range of 1.05 to 1.30.

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Atmospheric Analysis on the Meteo-tsunami Case Occurred on 31 March 2007 at the Yellow Sea of South Korea (2007년 3월 31일 서해에서 발생한 기상해일에 대한 기상학적 분석)

  • Kim, Hyunsu;Kim, Yoo-Keun;Woo, Seung-Buhm;Kim, Myung-Seok
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.23 no.12
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    • pp.1999-2014
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    • 2014
  • A meteo-tsunami occurred along the coastline of South Korea on 31 March 2007, with an estimated maximum amplitude of 240 cm in Yeonggwang (YG). In this study, we investigated the synoptic weather systems around the Yellow sea including the Bohai Bay and Shandong Peninsula using a weather research and forecast model and weather charts of the surface pressure level, upper pressure level and auxiliary analysis. We found that 4-lows passed through the Yellow sea from the Shandung Peninsula to Korea during 5 days. Moreover, the passage of the cold front and the locally heavy rain with a sudden pressure change may make the resonance response in the near-shore and ocean with a regular time-lag. The sea-level pressure disturbance and absolute vorticity in 500 hPa projected over the Yellow sea was propagated with a similar velocity to the coastline of South Korea at the time that meteo-tsunami occurred.