• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.42 no.5
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• pp.341-346
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• 2018

Supramax bulk carriers cover a wide range of ocean transportation requirements, from major to minor bulk cargoes. Market forecasting for this segment has posed a challenge to researchers, due to complexity involved, on the demand side of the forecasting model. This paper addresses this issue by using technical indicators as input features, instead of complicated supply-demand variables. Artificial neural networks (ANN), one of the most popular machine-learning tools, were used to replace classical time-series models. Results revealed that ANN outperformed the benchmark binomial logistic regression model, and predicted direction of the spot market with more than 70% accuracy. Results obtained in this paper, can enable chartering desks to make better short-term chartering decisions.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.46 no.5
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• pp.629-644
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• 2013

This paper concerns about the raking damages on the ultimate residual hull girder strength of bulk carriers by applying the modified R-D diagram (advanced method). The limited raking damage scenarios, based on the IMO's probability density function of grounding accidents, were carried out by using sampling technique. Recently, innovative method for the evaluation of the structural condition assessment, which covers the residual strength and damage index diagram (R-D diagram), was proposed by Paik et al. (2012). This concept is applied in the present study and modified R-D diagram, which can be considered vessel size effect, is then proposed. Four different types of bulk carrier structures, i.e., Handysize (37K), Supramax (57K), Kamsarmax (82K) and Capesize (181K) by Common Structural Rule (CSR), were applied to draw the general tendency. The ALPS/HULL, intelligent supersize finite element method, was employed for the ultimate longitudinal strength analysis. The obtained empirical formulas will be useful for the condition assessment of bulk carrier structures. It can also cover different sizes of the bulk carriers in terms of ultimate longitudinal strength. Important insights and findings with useful guidelines developed in this study are summarized.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.36 no.4
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• pp.17-30
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• 2020

In the shipping industry, it is essential to engage in the preemptive prediction of freight rate volatility through market monitoring. Considering that freight rates have already started to fall, the loss of shipping companies will soon be uncontrollable. Therefore, in this study, factors affecting the freight rates of bulk carriers, which have relatively large freight rate volatility as compared to container freight rates, were quantified and analyzed. In doing so, we intended to contribute to future shipping market monitoring. We performed an analysis using a vector error correction model and estimated the influence of six independent variables on the charter rates of bulk carriers by Handy Size, Supramax, Panamax, and Cape Size. The six independent variables included the bulk carrier fleet volume, iron ore traffic volume, ribo interest rate, bunker oil price, and Euro-Dollar exchange rate. The dependent variables were handy size (32,000 DWT) spot charter rates, Supramax 6 T/C average charter rates, Pana Max (75,000 DWT) spot charter, and Cape Size (170,000 DWT) spot charter. The study examined charter rates by size of bulk carriers, which was different from studies on existing specific types of ships or fares in oil tankers and chemical carriers other than bulk carriers. Findings revealed that influencing factors differed for each ship size. The Libo interest rate had a significant effect on all four ship types, and the iron ore traffic volume had a significant effect on three ship types. The Ribo rate showed a negative (-) relationship with Handy Size, Supramax, Panamax, and Cape Size. Iron ore traffic influenced three types of linearity, except for Panamax. The size of shipping companies differed depending on their characteristics. These findings are expected to contribute to the establishment of a management strategy for shipping companies by analyzing the factors influencing changes in the freight rates of charterers, which have a profound effect on the management performance of shipping companies.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.54 no.3
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• pp.171-186
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• 2017

This paper introduces a study on ship performance in waves to consider the effects of added resistance in the early stage of hull-form design. A ship experiences a loss of speed in actual seaways, hence this study proposes the overall procedure of a new design concept that takes into account the hydrodynamic performance of ship in waves. In the procedure, the added resistance is predicted using numerical methods: slender-body theory and Maruo's far-field formulation, since these methods are efficient in initial design stage, and an empirical formula is adopted for short waves. As computational models, KVLCC2 hull and Supramax bulk carrier are considered, and the results of added resistance and weather factor for test models are discussed. The computational results of vertical motion response and added resistance of KVLCC2 hull are compared with the experimental data. In addition, the sensitivity analysis of added resistance and weather factor for KVLCC2 hull to the variations of ship dimensions are conducted, and the change of the added resistance and propulsion factors after hull form variations are discussed.