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국내 항공운송산업의 현황 및 지속발전을 위한 정책제언 (Present Status of Domestic Air Transport Industry and Policy Proposal for National Carrier's Sustainable Development)

  • 최두환;황호원
    • 항공우주정책ㆍ법학회지
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    • 제33권2호
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    • pp.3-34
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    • 2018
  • 우리나라 항공운송산업은 1948년 10월에 대한국민항공사(KNA) 설립된 이후, 올해로 민항 70년의 역사를 이어 왔다. 현재 우리나라는 9개의 국제항공운송사업 면허를 보유한 항공사가 활발하게 사업을 영위하고 있으며, 2017년 기준으로 우리나라는 항공운송 수송실적(국내+국제)이 세계 8위를 차지할 정도로 세계 항공업계에서 그 위상을 확고히 하고 있다. 본고는 현재 우리나라 항공운송산업에 대한 분석을 통해 국내 항공운송산업의 내재적 문제점과 그에 대한 정책적 내지 법적으로 보완할 사항이 무엇인지에 대해 살펴보고, 향후 우리나라가 글로벌 항공 강국으로 지속 발전할 수 있는 '항공정책 방향'을 제시하는데 그 목적이 있다. 항공관련 통계자료를 분석해보면, 우리나라 항공운송산업은 매우 높은 성장률을 보이고 있으며, 국적항공사들도 지속성장을 위한 투자를 계속하고 있다. 나아가 새로운 기업들도 시장진입을 위해 노력하고 있다. 2018년 11월 현재 4개 기업이 국제항공운송사업 면허를 신청하였고, 1개 기업이 (화물)국제항공운송사업 면허를 신청한 상태이며 국토교통부는 2019년 1분기까지 면허발급 여부를 결정할 것으로 예상된다. 이러한 상황에 대해 일부에서는 경쟁촉진을 통한 가격인하와 소비자 편익 향상을 기대하고 있으나, 반대편에서는 경쟁심화로 인한 항공사의 재무구조 악화와 안전투자 소홀을 우려하기도 한다. 현재 상황에서 우리나라 항공운송산업의 문제점을 정리하면 첫째, 저비용항공사들이 내국인 수요 유치에 집중하는 반면 외국인 수요 유치에 대한 노력이 부족하여 장기적이고 지속적인 성장의 기반이 취약하며, 둘째, 최근 몇 년간의 고도성장에 따라 조종사, 정비사와 같은 항공 전문인력의 부족과 주요공항의 슬롯이 포화상태에 이르러 지속성장의 장애가 되고 있으며, 셋째, 항공사들의 재무건전성이 체계적이고 지속적으로 관리되지 않아서 급작스런 지정학적 리스크나 글로벌 경기 침체시에는 항공사들의 재무상태가 일시에 급격이 나빠지고, 그 피해는 고스란히 소비자들에게 귀결될 위험이 있다. 국적항공사들이 지속 발전하기 위해서는 첫째, 성장기반을 세계 항공시장의 무한한 수요에 초점을 맞추고 국제경쟁력을 갖추어 나가고, 둘째, 정부에서 항공 인프라를 항공운송산업 규모에 맞게 지원하여야 하며, 셋째, 우리나라 항공운송산업의 미래를 이끌어 나갈 항공 전문인력을 체계적으로 양성하고, 넷째, 정부는 상시적으로 항공사들의 재무상태를 관리하여 소비자의 피해를 미연에 방지해야 할 것이다. 현재 항공운송산업은 극심한 경쟁이 일상화 되어 있다. 국적항공사의 지속가능한 발전을 위해서는 항공사들이 모두 치열하게 노력해야 할 뿐만 아니라, 정부의 모든 기관들도 우리 항공사들이 국제경쟁에서 이길 수 있도록 정책적으로 뒷받침 해나가야 할 것이다.

초기 시청시간 패턴 분석을 통한 대흥행 드라마 예측 (Prediction of a hit drama with a pattern analysis on early viewing ratings)

  • 남기환;성노윤
    • 지능정보연구
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    • 제24권4호
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    • pp.33-49
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    • 2018
  • TV 드라마는 타 장르에 비해 시청률과 채널 홍보 효과가 매우 크며, 한류를 통해 산업적 효과와 문화적 영향력을 확인시켜줬다. 따라서, 이와 같은 드라마의 흥행 여부를 예측하는 일은 방송 관련 산업에서 매우 중요한 부분임은 주지의 사실이다. 이를 위해서 본 연구에서는 2003년부터 2012년까지 10년간, 지상파 채널을 통해 방송된, 총 280개의 TV 미니시리즈 드라마를 분석하였다. 이들 드라마 중 평균 시청률 상위 45개, 하위 시청률 45개를 선정하여 흥행 드라마의 시청시간 분포 (5%~100%, 11-Step) 모형을 만들었다. 이들 기준 모형과 신규 드라마의 시청시간 분포와의 이격 거리를 Euclidean/Correlation으로 측정한 유사도(Similarity)를 통해, 시청자의 초기(1~5회) 시청시간 분포로 신규 드라마의 성패 여부를 예측하는 모델을 만들었다. 또한 총 방송 시간 중 70% 이상 시청한 시청자를 열혈 시청층(이하 열혈층) 으로 분류하고, 상위/하위 드라마의 평균값과 비교하여, 신규 드라마의 흥행여부를 판별할 수 있도록 설계하였다. 연구 결과 드라마의 초반 시청자 충성도(시청시간)는 드라마의 대흥행 여부를 예측하는데 중요한 요소임을 밝혔으며, 최대 75.47%의 확률로 대흥행 드라마의 탄생을 예측할 수 있었다.

해마류 Hippocampus harbouri의 외부형태 발달과 성장 그리고 생존 (Morphological Development, Growth and Survival of Barbour's Seahorse, Hippocampus barbouri)

  • 최영웅;정민민;김성철;김재우;이정의;이윤호;노섬
    • 한국해양학회지:바다
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    • 제11권3호
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    • pp.124-132
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    • 2006
  • 해마류 Hippocampus harbouri의 인공번식 기술개발을 위한 이 연구는 인도네시아 원산의 H. barbouri 1개체가 출산한 154마리의 자어를 대상으로 형태적 발달의 특징, 성장 그리고 생존율을 조사하였다. 출산 후 1일째 자어는 표준체장이 $8.82\sim10.36mm$ (평균 $9.48{\pm}0.69mm$, n=4)이고, 등지느러미 가슴지느러미 그리고 뒷지느러미 줄기 수는 각각 17, 14그리고 4개 형성되어 있었다. 출산 후 16일째 표준체장은 $12.33\sim13.91mm\;(13.01{\pm}0.75mm)$로 성장하면서 체륜 극은 날카롭게 발달하여 성체와 비슷한 모습을 띄기 시작하였다. 출산 후 20일째 체장이 $14.37\sim15.79mm$ ($14.97{\pm}0.62mm$, n=4)로 성장하면서 주둥이가 가늘고 길어졌고 아래턱 주변부위도 완전히 착색되어 성어와 거의 유사한 체색과 체형을 갖추었고 이 시기 생존율은 91.6%이었다. 출산 후 41일째 치어는 표준체장이 $20.14\sim24.89mm(22.89{\pm}2.22mm,\;n=4)$로 성장하면서 머리의 극은 원통형으로 굵어지고 끝에서 여러 개의 돌기가 돋아서 관의 모양으로 발달하였는데 이 시기 체륜은 몸통에 11, 미부에 35개가 형성되어 있는 것을 관찰할 수 있었고 이 시기 생존율은 57.1%였다. 출산 후 158일째에는 $59.07\sim63.76mm(61.42{\pm}3.32mm\;n=2)$으로 성장하여 체장에 대한 두장, 몸 통장 그리고 미장의 비율은 각각 $19.1{\pm}0.3%,\;25.2{\pm}0.7%$그리고 $55.8{\pm}0.3%$이었고 이 시기 생존율은 15.6%였다.

산지채석업체(山地採石業體)의 경영실태(經營實態) 및 적정규모설정(適正規模設定) -골재용(骨材用) 채석업체(採石業體)와 건축용(建築用) 채석업체(採石業體)의 비교(比較) 분석(分析)- (Analysis of Management Status and Optimum Production Scale of Quarrying Firms in Korea -Comparative Analysis of Aggregate and Building-Stone Quarrying Firms-)

  • 정하현;조응혁
    • 한국산림과학회지
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    • 제80권1호
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    • pp.72-81
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    • 1991
  • 본(本) 연구(硏究)는 우리나라 채석업체(採石業體)의 경영개선(經營改善)을 위한 기초자료(基礎資料)를 제공(提供)할 목적(目的)으로 실시(實施)되었다. 이를 위하여 골재용(骨材用) 채석업체(採石業體) 30개소(個所)와 건축용(建築用) 채석업체(採石業體) 46개소(個所)의 경영실태(經營實態)와 경영성과(經營成果), 생산요소(生産要素) 투입(投入)의 경제성(經劑性), 적정규모(適正規模) 등을 분석(分析)하였으며, 그 결과(結果)를 요약(要約)하면 다음과 같다. 1. 골재용(骨材用) 채석업체(採石業體)와 건축용(建築用) 채석업체(採石業體)의 경영주(經營主) 연령(年齡) 40재(才) 이상(以上)이 각각(各各) 97%, 89.1% 이었고, 고졸이상(高卒以上) 학력(學歷) 소지자(所持者)가 각각(各各) 90%, 85% 이었다. 또한, 경력면(經歷面)에서 10년(年) 이하(以下)의 경영주(經營主)는 골재용(骨材用) 채석업체(採石業體)에서 70%, 건축용(建築用) 채석업체(採石業體)에서 52% 이었다. 따라서, 두 채석업체(採石業體)에 대한 경영주(經營主)의 대부분(大部分)은 고령(高齡), 고학력(高學歷) 소지자(所持者)이며, 경력면(經歷面)에서는 골재용(骨材用) 채석업체(採石業體)가 건축용(建築用) 채석업체(採石業體)보다 다소 낮게 나타났다. 2. 골재용(骨材用) 채석업체(採石業體)에 대한 경영조직(經營組織)의 형태(形態)는 회사법인(會社法人)이 60%로 많은 반면(反面), 건축용(建築用) 채석업체(採石業體)는 개인업체(個人業體)가 76%로 많게 나타났다. 골재용(骨材用) 채석업체(採石業體)의 허가면적(許可面積)은 약(約) 2.86ha, 건축용(建築用) 채석업체(採石業體)는 1.66ha으로 나타났다. 여기에서, 골재용(骨材用) 채석업체(採石業體)가 건축용(建築用) 채석업체(採石業體)보다 큰 규모(規模)로 경영(經營)되고 있음을 알 수 있다. 3. 골재용(骨材用) 채석업체(採石業體)의 연평균(年平均) 채석량(採石量)은 1985년(年)의 $88.961m^3$에서 1988년(年)의 $144.028m^3$로 증가(增加)하여 안정(安定)된 상태(狀態)에서 경영(經營)되고 있다. 반면(反面)에, 건축용(建築用) 채석업체(採石業體)의 경우는 1985년(年)에 $4.155m^3$이었던 것이 1987년(年)에는 $19.462m^3$으로 크게 증가(增加)하였으나, 1988년(年)에는 $13.400m^3$으로 감소(減少)하였다. 즉, 건축용(建築用) 채석업체(採石業體)는 다소 불안정(不安定)한 상태(狀態)에서 경영(經營)되고 있으므로 정부(政府)의 지속적(持續的)인 육성책(育成策)이 필요(必要)하다. 4. 골재용(骨材用) 채석업체(採石業體)에서 높은 비율(比率)을 차지하고 있는 비용항목(費用項目)은 장비화석료(裝備貨惜料), 감가상각비(減價償却費), 연간급여액(年間給與額), 수리유지비(修理維持費)등으로 나타났다. 건축용(建築用) 채석업체(採石業體)는 연간급여액(年間給與額), 감가상각비(減價償却費), 연료비(燃料費), 납부세액(納付稅額) 등의 순(順)으로 나타났다. 연간(年間) 이익율(利益率)은 골재용(骨材用) 채석업체(採石業體)가 9.7%, 건축용(建築用) 채석업체(採石業體)가 2.6%로서 골재용(骨材用) 채석업체(採石業體)가 보다 유리(有利)하게 경영(經營)됨을 알 수 있다. 5. 골재용(骨材用) 채석업체(採石業體)의 생산탄력성(生産彈力性)은 종업원(從業員)이 0.559, 유동비(流動費)가 0.513, 자본용역(資本用役)이 0.185로 나타났으며, 계수(係數)의 합계(合計)가 1.257>1로 나타났다. 건축용(建築用) 채석업체(採石業體)의 생산탄력성(生産彈力性)은 종업원(從業員)이 0.492, 유동비(流動費)가 0.192, 자본용역(資本用役)이 0.498로서 계수(係數)의 합계(合計)가 1.172>1로 나타났다. 따라서, 두 업체(業體) 모두 생산규모(生産規模) 확대(擴大)의 경제성(經劑性)이 존재(存在)한다. 6. 골재용(骨材用) 채석업체(採石業體)의 한계가치(限界價値) 생산액(生産額)에 대한 기회비용(機會費用)의 비율(比率)은 종업원(從業員)이 2.54, 유동비(流動費)가 3.62, 자본용역(資本用役)이 1.45로 나타났다. 건축용(建築用) 채석업체(採石業體)는 종업원(從業員)이 2.47, 유동비(流動費)가 2.34, 자본용역(資本用役)이 19.67으로 니타났다. 따라서, 생산증대(生産增大)를 위한 결정적(決定的) 요인(要因)은 골재용(骨材用) 채석업체(採石業體)의 경우에는 유동비(流動費)와 종업원(從業員)이고, 건축용(建築用) 채석업체(採石業體)의 경우에는 자본용역(資本用役)으로 나타났다. 7. 골재용(骨材用) 채석업체(採石業體)의 손익분기점(損益分岐點)에 의한 매출액(賣出額)은 약(約) 5.87억(億)원, 이윤극대화(利潤極大化)를 위한 최적매출규모(最適賣出規模)는 약(約) 20억(億)원으로 나타났다. 건축용(建築用) 채석업체(採石業體)의 손익분기점(損益分岐點) 매출액(賣出額)은 2.2억(億)원, 이윤극대화(利潤極大化)를 위한 매출규모(賣出規模)는 약(約) 5억(億)원으로 나타났다.

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조피볼락, Sebastes schlegeli의 초기성장에 관한 연구 (Studies on the Early Growth of Rockfish, Sebastes schlegeli)

  • 현충훈;노섬
    • 한국양식학회지
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    • 제9권1호
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    • pp.25-42
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    • 1996
  • 조피볼락, Sebastes schlegeli의 초기성장에 적합한 먹이계열과 사육밀도에 따른 성장을 파악하기 위한 초기의 지수식에 있어서의 먹이계열 시험과 폐쇄순환여과식 사육장치에서 4단계의 밀도(A시험구 : 1.8 $kg/m^3$, B : 4.0 $kg/m^3$, C : 5.0 $kg/m^3$, D : 6.2 $kg/m^3$) 로 조정된 사육시험 결과는 다음과 같다. 1) 3가지 먹이계열 A (rotifer+$3\~18$ Artemia+13 diet), B (rotifer+$6\~18$ Artemia+egg+18 diet), C (rotifer+$6\~30$ Artemia+ 18 diet)로 사육한 자치어의 성장(전장, 체중)은 B ($27.52{\pm}2.50\;mm,\;0.26{\pm}0.06\;g$), A ($25.21{\pm}3.76\;mm,\;0.23{\pm}0.07\;g$), C ($23.22{\pm}3.44\;mm,\;0.15{\pm}0.05\;g$)시험구의 순위였고, 생존율은 B($66.4\%$), A ($57.6\%$), C ($44.4\%$) 시험구의 순위였다. 각 시험구별 자치어의 사육일수에 따른 전장과의 성장관계식은, A 시험구 Y=4.350+0.116X+$1.887X^2$ (r=0.993) B 시험구 Y=4.500+8.931X+$2.221X^2$ (r=0.994) C 시험구 Y=4.478+5.734X+$1.881X^2$ (r=0.990)이었다. 2) 자어의 크기에 따른 개체당 Artemia nauplius의 평균 포식량은 전장5.65 mm일때 9개체, 6.81 mm, 212개체, 9.45 mm, 242개체, 14.96 mm, 750개체, 24.52 mm일때 1,171개체로 전장 $9.45\~24.52$ mm (일령 $15\~20$일) 사이에 급격한 포식량의 증가를 보였다. 3) 폐쇄순환여과 시스템에서 4단계의 밀도별 시험구의 치어성장(평균전장과 체중)은 A ($13.75{\pm}0.76\;cm,\;48.37{\pm}10.61\;g$), B ($13.56{\pm}1.12\;cm,\;44.70{\pm}11.37\;g$), C ($13.22{\pm}1.11\;cm,\;44.03{\pm}10.12\;g$), D ($13.10{\pm}1.12\;cm,\;42.63{\pm}12.91\;g$)시험구의 순으로 저밀도구에서 양호하였고, 최종 생존율은 A $92.9\%,\;C\;91.5%\;B\;89.0\%,D\;88.2\%$ 순위였다. 최종 사육밀도별 단위면적당 총생산량($kg/m^3$)은, D (30.45$kg/m^3$), C (25.89 $kg/m^3$), B(20.75 $kg/m^3$), A (10.48 $kg/m^3$)의 순위로서 개체의 성장과 생존율의 차이는 근소한데 비하여 총생산량에서 큰 차이를 나타내어 동 시험조건에서 경제적인 면을 고려한다aus 고밀도구의 결과가 양호하였다.

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지하수 관개에 의한 수도의 멸준양상과 그 방지책에 관한 연구 (Studies on the Rice Yield Decreased by Ground Water Irrigation and Its Preventive Methods)

  • 한욱동
    • 한국농공학회지
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    • 제16권1호
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    • pp.3225-3262
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    • 1974
  • The purposes of this thesis are to clarify experimentally the variation of ground water temperature in tube wells during the irrigation period of paddy rice, and the effect of ground water irrigation on the growth, grain yield and yield components of the rice plant, and, furthermore, when and why the plant is most liable to be damaged by ground water, and also to find out the effective ground water irrigation methods. The results obtained in this experiment are as follows; 1. The temperature of ground water in tube wells varies according to the location, year, and the depth of the well. The average temperatures of ground water in a tubewells, 6.3m, 8.0m deep are $14.5^{\circ}C$ and $13.1^{\circ}C$, respercively, during the irrigation period of paddy rice (From the middle of June to the end of September). In the former the temperature rises continuously from $12.3^{\circ}C$ to 16.4$^{\circ}C$ and in the latter from $12.4^{\circ}C$ to $13.8^{\circ}C$ during the same period. These temperatures are approximately the same value as the estimated temperatures. The temperature difference between the ground water and the surface water is approximately $11^{\circ}C$. 2. The results obtained from the analysis of the water quality of the "Seoho" reservoir and that of water from the tube well show that the pH values of the ground water and the surface water are 6.35 and 6.00, respectively, and inorganic components such as N, PO4, Na, Cl, SiO2 and Ca are contained more in the ground water than in the surface water while K, SO4, Fe and Mg are contained less in the ground water. 3. The response of growth, yield and yield components of paddy rice to ground water irrigation are as follows; (l) Using ground water irrigation during the watered rice nursery period(seeding date: 30 April, 1970), the chracteristics of a young rice plant, such as plant height, number of leaves, and number of tillers are inferior to those of young rice plants irrigated with surface water during the same period. (2) In cases where ground water and surface water are supplied separately by the gravity flow method, it is found that ground water irrigation to the rice plant delays the stage at which there is a maximum increase in the number of tillers by 6 days. (3) At the tillering stage of rice plant just after transplanting, the effect of ground water irrigation on the increase in the number of tillers is better, compared with the method of supplying surface water throughout the whole irrigation period. Conversely, the number of tillers is decreased by ground water irrigation at the reproductive stage. Plant height is extremely restrained by ground water irrigation. (4) Heading date is clearly delayed by the ground water irrigation when it is practised during the growth stages or at the reproductive stage only. (5) The heading date of rice plants is slightly delayed by irrigation with the gravity flow method as compared with the standing water method. (6) The response of yield and of yield components of rice to ground water irrigation are as follows: \circled1 When ground water irrigation is practised during the growth stages and the reproductive stage, the culm length of the rice plant is reduced by 11 percent and 8 percent, respectively, when compared with the surface water irrigation used throughout all the growth stages. \circled2 Panicle length is found to be the longest on the test plot in which ground water irrigation is practised at the tillering stage. A similar tendency as that seen in the culm length is observed on other test plots. \circled3 The number of panicles is found to be the least on the plot in which ground water irrigation is practised by the gravity flow method throughout all the growth stages of the rice plant. No significant difference is found between the other plots. \circled4 The number of spikelets per panicle at the various stages of rice growth at which_ surface or ground water is supplied by gravity flow method are as follows; surface water at all growth stages‥‥‥‥‥ 98.5. Ground water at all growth stages‥‥‥‥‥‥62.2 Ground water at the tillering stage‥‥‥‥‥ 82.6. Ground water at the reproductive stage ‥‥‥‥‥ 74.1. \circled5 Ripening percentage is about 70 percent on the test plot in which ground water irrigation is practised during all the growth stages and at the tillering stage only. However, when ground water irrigation is practised, at the reproductive stage, the ripening percentage is reduced to 50 percent. This means that 20 percent reduction in the ripening percentage by using ground water irrigation at the reproductive stage. \circled6 The weight of 1,000 kernels is found to show a similar tendency as in the case of ripening percentage i. e. the ground water irrigation during all the growth stages and at the reproductive stage results in a decreased weight of the 1,000 kernels. \circled7 The yield of brown rice from the various treatments are as follows; Gravity flow; Surface water at all growth stages‥‥‥‥‥‥514kg/10a. Ground water at all growth stages‥‥‥‥‥‥428kg/10a. Ground water at the reproductive stage‥‥‥‥‥‥430kg/10a. Standing water; Surface water at all growh stages‥‥‥‥‥‥556kg/10a. Ground water at all growth stages‥‥‥‥‥‥441kg/10a. Ground water at the reproductive stage‥‥‥‥‥‥450kg/10a. The above figures show that ground water irrigation by the gravity flow and by the standing water method during all the growth stages resulted in an 18 percent and a 21 percent decrease in the yield of brown rice, respectively, when compared with surface water irrigation. Also ground water irrigation by gravity flow and by standing water resulted in respective decreases in yield of 16 percent and 19 percent, compared with the surface irrigation method. 4. Results obtained from the experiments on the improvement of ground water irrigation efficiency to paddy rice are as follows; (1) When the standing water irrigation with surface water is practised, the daily average water temperature in a paddy field is 25.2$^{\circ}C$, but, when the gravity flow method is practised with the same irrigation water, the daily average water temperature is 24.5$^{\circ}C$. This means that the former is 0.7$^{\circ}C$ higher than the latter. On the other hand, when ground water is used, the daily water temperatures in a paddy field are respectively 21.$0^{\circ}C$ and 19.3$^{\circ}C$ by practising standing water and the gravity flow method. It can be seen that the former is approximately 1.$0^{\circ}C$ higher than the latter. (2) When the non-water-logged cultivation is practised, the yield of brown rice is 516.3kg/10a, while the yield of brown rice from ground water irrigation plot throughout the whole irrigation period and surface water irrigation plot are 446.3kg/10a and 556.4kg/10a, respectivelely. This means that there is no significant difference in yields between surface water irrigation practice and non-water-logged cultivation, and also means that non-water-logged cultivation results in a 12.6 percent increase in yield compared with the yield from the ground water irrigation plot. (3) The black and white coloring on the inside surface of the water warming ponds has no substantial effect on the temperature of the water. The average daily water temperatures of the various water warming ponds, having different depths, are expressed as Y=aX+b, while the daily average water temperatures at various depths in a water warming pond are expressed as Y=a(b)x (where Y: the daily average water temperature, a,b: constants depending on the type of water warming pond, X; water depth). As the depth of water warning pond is increased, the diurnal difference of the highest and the lowest water temperature is decreased, and also, the time at which the highest water temperature occurs, is delayed. (4) The degree of warming by using a polyethylene tube, 100m in length and 10cm in diameter, is 4~9$^{\circ}C$. Heat exchange rate of a polyethylene tube is 1.5 times higher than that or a water warming channel. The following equation expresses the water warming mechanism of a polyethylene tube where distance from the tube inlet, time in day and several climatic factors are given: {{{{ theta omega (dwt)= { a}_{0 } (1-e- { x} over { PHI v })+ { 2} atop { SUM from { { n}=1} { { a}_{n } } over { SQRT { 1+ {( n omega PHI) }^{2 } } } } LEFT { sin(n omega t+ { b}_{n }+ { tan}^{-1 }n omega PHI )-e- { x} over { PHI v }sin(n omega LEFT ( t- { x} over {v } RIGHT ) + { b}_{n }+ { tan}^{-1 }n omega PHI ) RIGHT } +e- { x} over { PHI v } theta i}}}}{{{{ { theta }_{$\infty$ }(t)= { { alpha theta }_{a }+ { theta }_{ w'} +(S- { B}_{s } ) { U}_{w } } over { beta } , PHI = { { cpDU}_{ omega } } over {4 beta } }}}} where $\theta$$\omega$; discharged water temperature($^{\circ}C$) $\theta$a; air temperature ($^{\circ}C$) $\theta$$\omega$';ponded water temperature($^{\circ}C$) s ; net solar radiation(ly/min) t ; time(tadian) x; tube length(cm) D; diameter(cm) ao,an,bn;constants determined from $\theta$$\omega$(t) varitation. cp; heat capacity of water(cal/$^{\circ}C$ ㎥) U,Ua; overall heat transfer coefficient(cal/$^{\circ}C$ $\textrm{cm}^2$ min-1) $\omega$;1 velocity of water in a polyethylene tube(cm/min) Bs ; heat exchange rate between water and soil(ly/min)

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일산화탄소 폐확산능검사에서 단회호흡법과 호흡내검사법의 비교 (Comparison of Single-Breath and Intra-Breath Method in Measuring Diffusing Capacity for Carbon Monoxide of the Lung)

  • 이재호;정희순;심영수
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • 제42권4호
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    • pp.555-568
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    • 1995
  • 연구배경: 폐확산능은 산소를 이용하여 측정하는 것이 가장 생리적이지만 폐모세혈의 산소분압측정이 어려워 임상에서는 일산화탄소를 이용하여 측정하고 있으며, 단회호흡(single-breath)폐확산능검사법이 가장 널리 사용되고있는 방법이다. 그러나 총폐용량까지 흡기한후 10초간 숨을 참는 과정을 기침, 호흡곤란 등이 있는 환자로선 수용하기 곤란하므로 이러한 과정없이 낮은 유량의 일회호기만을 필요로 히는 호흡내(intra-breath)폐확산능검사법이 고안되었다. 본 연구에서는 단회호흡법과 호흡내법으로 측정한 폐확산능간에 유의한 차이가 있는지 그리고 차이가 있다면 어떤 인자가 영향을 미치는지를 알아보고자 하였다. 방법: 특정질환과 무관하게 임의로 73명을 선택하고 유량-용적곡선 검사를 3회 시행한후 노력성 폐활량(FVC)과 1초간 노력성호기량($FEV_1$)의 합이 가장 큰 검사에서 노력성폐활량, 1초간 노력성호기량, 1초간 노력성호기량의 노력성 폐활량에 대한 비($FEV_1$/FVC)를 구했다. 폐확산능은 5분간격으로 각각 3회씩 단회호흡법과 호흡내법으로 측정하였으며, 선형적 상관분석으로 어떤 인자가 두 방법간의 폐확산능의 차[단회호흡법과 호흡내법에 의한 각각의 폐확산능의 차이의 평균치(mL/min/mmHg)]에 영향을 미치는지를 평가하여 다음과 같은 결과를 얻었다. 결과: 1) 단회호흡법 및 호흡내법 모두 검사내 재현성은 우수하였다. 2) 단회호흡법과 호흡내법으로 측정한 폐확산능간에는 전체적으로 유의한 상관관계가 있었지만, 두 방법의 측정치간에는 의미있는 치아가 있었다($1.01{\pm}0.35ml/min/mmHg$, p<0.01). 3) 단회호흡법과 호흡내법간의 폐확산능의 차이는 노력성폐활량과는 상관관계가 없었지만, 1초간 노력성호기량, $FEV_1$/FVC 및 환기배분의 지표인 메탄농도의 기울기와는 유의한 상관관계가 있었고 다중상관분석결과 $FEV_1$/FVC에 의한 영향이 가장 컸다(r=-0.4725, p<0.01). 4) 단회호흡법과 호흡내법간의 폐확산능의 차이와 $FEV_1$/FVC를 도식화하면 두 방법간의 폐확산능의 차이는 $FEV_1$/FVC가 50~60%인 구간에서 두 군으로 분리됨을 알수 있으며, $FEV_1$/FVC가 60% 이상에서는 두방법간에 유의한 차이가 없으나($0.05{\pm}0.24ml/min/mmHg$, p>0.1) 60% 미만에서는 유의한 차이가 있었다($-4.65{\pm}0.34ml/min/mmHg$, p<0.01). 5) 메탄농도의 기울기가 정상범위인 2%/L이내에선 단회호흡법과 호흡내법의 폐확산능이 모두 $24.3{\pm}0.68ml/min/mmHg$로 측정방법에 따른 차이가 없지만 2%/L를 초과한 경우에는 단회호흡법에 의한 폐확산능이 $15.0{\pm}0.44ml/min/mmHg$ 호흡내법에 선 $11.9{\pm}0.51ml/min/mmHg$로 두 방법간에 유의한 차이가 있었다(p<0.01). 따라서 $FEV_1$/FVC가 60% 미만일때는 호흡내법으로 측정한 폐확산능이 단회호흡법보다 의미있게 낮은 값을 보이는데, 그 이유는 주로 환기배분의 장애로 추정되지만 폐확산능 이 단회호흡법에서 과대평가되거나 폐확산능의 감소가 호흡내법에서 더 예민하게 나타 났을 가능정도 배제할수 없다. 결론: 73명을 대상으로 폐확산능을 단회호흡법과 호흡내법으로 측정해본 결과 호흡내법은 검사의 재현성도 우수하고 폐기능이 정상이거나 제한성 장애, 그리고 경도의 폐쇄성장애가 있는 경우에는 단회호흡법을 대체해서 사용할수 있지만, 중등도 이상의 폐쇄성장애가 있는 경우에는 단회호흡법보다 유의하게 낮은 검사치를 보였다. 호흡내법과 단회호흡법에 의한 폐확산능의 차이가 호흡내법이 단회호흡법에 비해 폐확산능의 감소를 예민하게 나타내주는 것인지 혹은 환기의 불균형에 의한 영향을 많이 받아서인지는 연구가 더 필요할 것이다.

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한국전쟁의 교훈과 대비 -병력수(兵力數) 및 부대수(部隊數)를 중심으로- (The lesson From Korean War)

  • 윤일영
    • 안보군사학연구
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    • 통권8호
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    • pp.49-168
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    • 2010
  • Just before the Korean War, the total number of the North Korean troops was 198,380, while that of the ROK(Republic of Korea) army troops 105,752. That is, the total number of the ROK army troops at that time was 53.3% of the total number of the North Korean army. As of December 2008, the total number of the North Korean troops is estimated to be 1,190,000, while that of the ROK troops is 655,000, so the ROK army maintains 55.04% of the total number of the North Korean troops. If the ROK army continues to reduce its troops according to [Military Reform Plan 2020], the total number of its troops will be 517,000 m 2020. If North Korea maintains the current status(l,190,000 troops), the number of the ROK troops will be 43.4% of the North Korean army. In terms of units, just before the Korean War, the number of the ROK army divisions and regiments was 80% and 44.8% of North Korean army. As of December 2008, North Korea maintains 86 divisions and 69 regiments. Compared to the North Korean army, the ROK army maintains 46 Divisions (53.4% of North Korean army) and 15 regiments (21.3% of North Korean army). If the ROK army continue to reduce the military units according to [Military Reform Plan 2020], the number of ROK army divisions will be 28(13 Active Division, 4 Mobilization Divisions and 11 Local Reserve Divisions), while that of the North Korean army will be 86 in 2020. In that case, the number of divisions of the ROK army will be 32.5% of North Korean army. During the Korean war, North Korea suddenly invaded the Republic of Korea and occupied its capital 3 days after the war began. At that time, the ROK army maintained 80% of army divisions, compared to the North Korean army. The lesson to be learned from this is that, if the ROK army is forced to disperse its divisions because of the simultaneous invasion of North Korea and attack of guerrillas in home front areas, the Republic of Korea can be in a serious military danger, even though it maintains 80% of military divisions of North Korea. If the ROK army promotes the plans in [Military Reform Plan 2020], the number of military units of the ROK army will be 32.5% of that of the North Korean army. This ratio is 2.4 times lower than that of the time when the Korean war began, and in this case, 90% of total military power should be placed in the DMZ area. If 90% of military power is placed in the DMZ area, few troops will be left for the defense of home front. In addition, if the ROK army continues to reduce the troops, it can allow North Korea to have asymmetrical superiority in military force and it will eventually exert negative influence on the stability and peace of the Korean peninsular. On the other hand, it should be reminded that, during the Korean War, the Republic of Korea was attacked by North Korea, though it kept 53.3% of troops, compared to North Korea. It should also be reminded that, as of 2008, the ROK army is defending its territory with the troops 55.04% of North Korea. Moreover, the national defense is assisted by 25,120 troops of the US Forces in Korea. In case the total number of the ROK troops falls below 43.4% of the North Korean army, it may cause social unrest about the national security and may lead North Korea's misjudgement. Besides, according to Lanchester strategy, the party with weaker military power (60% compared to the party with stronger military power) has the 4.1% of winning possibility. Therefore, if we consider the fact that the total number of the ROK army troops is 55.04% of that of the North Korean army, the winning possibility of the ROK army is not higher than 4.1%. If the total number of ROK troops is reduced to 43.4% of that of North Korea, the winning possibility will be lower and the military operations will be in critically difficult situation. [Military Reform Plan 2020] rums at the reduction of troops and units of the ground forces under the policy of 'select few'. However, the problem is that the financial support to achieve this goal is not secured. Therefore, the promotion of [Military Reform Plan 2020] may cause the weakening of military defence power in 2020. Some advanced countries such as Japan, UK, Germany, and France have promoted the policy of 'select few'. However, what is to be noted is that the national security situation of those countries is much different from that of Korea. With the collapse of the Soviet Unions and European communist countries, the military threat of those European advanced countries has almost disappeared. In addition, the threats those advanced countries are facing are not wars in national level, but terrorism in international level. To cope with the threats like terrorism, large scaled army trops would not be necessary. So those advanced European countries can promote the policy of 'select few'. In line with this, those European countries put their focuses on the development of military sections that deal with non-military operations and protection from unspecified enemies. That is, those countries are promoting the policy of 'select few', because they found that the policy is suitable for their national security environment. Moreover, since they are pursuing common interest under the European Union(EU) and they can form an allied force under NATO, it is natural that they are pursing the 'select few' policy. At present, NATO maintains the larger number of troops(2,446,000) than Russia(l,027,000) to prepare for the potential threat of Russia. The situation of japan is also much different from that of Korea. As a country composed of islands, its prime military focus is put on the maritime defense. Accordingly, the development of ground force is given secondary focus. The japanese government promotes the policy to develop technology-concentrated small size navy and air-forces, instead of maintaining large-scaled ground force. In addition, because of the 'Peace Constitution' that was enacted just after the end of World War II, japan cannot maintain troops more than 240,000. With the limited number of troops (240,000), japan has no choice but to promote the policy of 'select few'. However, the situation of Korea is much different from the situations of those countries. The Republic of Korea is facing the threat of the North Korean Army that aims at keeping a large-scale military force. In addition, the countries surrounding Korea are also super powers containing strong military forces. Therefore, to cope with the actual threat of present and unspecified threat of future, the importance of maintaining a carefully calculated large-scale military force cannot be denied. Furthermore, when considering the fact that Korea is in a peninsular, the Republic of Korea must take it into consideration the tradition of continental countries' to maintain large-scale military powers. Since the Korean War, the ROK army has developed the technology-force combined military system, maintaining proper number of troops and units and pursuing 'select few' policy at the same time. This has been promoted with the consideration of military situation in the Koran peninsular and the cooperation of ROK-US combined forces. This kind of unique military system that cannot be found in other countries can be said to be an insightful one for the preparation for the actual threat of North Korea and the conflicts between continental countries and maritime countries. In addition, this kind of technology-force combined military system has enabled us to keep peace in Korea. Therefore, it would be desirable to maintain this technology-force combined military system until the reunification of the Korean peninsular. Furthermore, it is to be pointed out that blindly following the 'select few' policy of advanced countries is not a good option, because it is ignoring the military strategic situation of the Korean peninsular. If the Republic of Korea pursues the reduction of troops and units radically without consideration of the threat of North Korea and surrounding countries, it could be a significant strategic mistake. In addition, the ROK army should keep an eye on the fact the European advanced countries and Japan that are not facing direct military threats are spending more defense expenditures than Korea. If the ROK army reduces military power without proper alternatives, it would exert a negative effect on the stable economic development of Korea and peaceful reunification of the Korean peninsular. Therefore, the desirable option would be to focus on the development of quality of forces, maintaining proper size and number of troops and units under the technology-force combined military system. The tableau above shows that the advanced countries like the UK, Germany, Italy, and Austria spend more defense expenditure per person than the Republic of Korea, although they do not face actual military threats, and that they keep achieving better economic progress than the countries that spend less defense expenditure. Therefore, it would be necessary to adopt the merits of the defense systems of those advanced countries. As we have examined, it would be desirable to maintain the current size and number of troops and units, to promote 'select few' policy with increased defense expenditure, and to strengthen the technology-force combined military system. On the basis of firm national security, the Republic of Korea can develop efficient policies for reunification and prosperity, and jump into the status of advanced countries. Therefore, the plans to reduce troops and units in [Military Reform Plan 2020] should be reexamined. If it is difficult for the ROK army to maintain its size of 655,000 troops because of low birth rate, the plans to establish the prompt mobilization force or to adopt drafting system should be considered for the maintenance of proper number of troops and units. From now on, the Republic of Korean government should develop plans to keep peace as well as to prepare unexpected changes in the Korean peninsular. For the achievement of these missions, some options can be considered. The first one is to maintain the same size of military troops and units as North Korea. The second one is to maintain the same level of military power as North Korea in terms of military force index. The third one is to maintain the same level of military power as North Korea, with the combination of the prompt mobilization force and the troops in active service under the system of technology-force combined military system. At present, it would be not possible for the ROK army to maintain such a large-size military force as North Korea (1,190,000 troops and 86 units). So it would be rational to maintain almost the same level of military force as North Korea with the combination of the troops on the active list and the prompt mobilization forces. In other words, with the combination of the troops in active service (60%) and the prompt mobilization force (40%), the ROK army should develop the strategies to harmonize technology and forces. The Korean government should also be prepared for the strategic flexibility of USFK, the possibility of American policy change about the location of foreign army, radical unexpected changes in North Korea, the emergence of potential threat, surrounding countries' demand for Korean force for the maintenance of regional stability, and demand for international cooperation against terrorism. For this, it is necessary to develop new approaches toward the proper number and size of troops and units. For instance, to prepare for radical unexpected political or military changes in North Korea, the Republic of Korea should have plans to protect a large number of refugees, to control arms and people, to maintain social security, and to keep orders in North Korea. From the experiences of other countries, it is estimated that 115,000 to 230,000 troops, plus ten thousands of police are required to stabilize the North Korean society, in the case radical unexpected military or political change happens in North Korea. In addition, if the Republic of Korea should perform the release of hostages, control of mass destruction weapons, and suppress the internal wars in North Korea, it should send 460,000 troops to North Korea. Moreover, if the Republic of Korea wants to stop the attack of North Korea and flow of refugees in DMZ area, at least 600,000 troops would be required. In sum, even if the ROK army maintains 600,000 troops, it may need additional 460,000 troops to prepare for unexpected radical changes in North Korea. For this, it is necessary to establish the prompt mobilization force whose size and number are almost the same as the troops in active service. In case the ROK army keeps 650,000 troops, the proper number of the prompt mobilization force would be 460,000 to 500,000.

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