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Prediction of multipurpose dam inflow utilizing catchment attributes with LSTM and transformer models (유역정보 기반 Transformer및 LSTM을 활용한 다목적댐 일 단위 유입량 예측)

  • Kim, Hyung Ju;Song, Young Hoon;Chung, Eun Sung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.7
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    • pp.437-449
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    • 2024
  • Rainfall-runoff prediction studies using deep learning while considering catchment attributes have been gaining attention. In this study, we selected two models: the Transformer model, which is suitable for large-scale data training through the self-attention mechanism, and the LSTM-based multi-state-vector sequence-to-sequence (LSTM-MSV-S2S) model with an encoder-decoder structure. These models were constructed to incorporate catchment attributes and predict the inflow of 10 multi-purpose dam watersheds in South Korea. The experimental design consisted of three training methods: Single-basin Training (ST), Pretraining (PT), and Pretraining-Finetuning (PT-FT). The input data for the models included 10 selected watershed attributes along with meteorological data. The inflow prediction performance was compared based on the training methods. The results showed that the Transformer model outperformed the LSTM-MSV-S2S model when using the PT and PT-FT methods, with the PT-FT method yielding the highest performance. The LSTM-MSV-S2S model showed better performance than the Transformer when using the ST method; however, it showed lower performance when using the PT and PT-FT methods. Additionally, the embedding layer activation vectors and raw catchment attributes were used to cluster watersheds and analyze whether the models learned the similarities between them. The Transformer model demonstrated improved performance among watersheds with similar activation vectors, proving that utilizing information from other pre-trained watersheds enhances the prediction performance. This study compared the suitable models and training methods for each multi-purpose dam and highlighted the necessity of constructing deep learning models using PT and PT-FT methods for domestic watersheds. Furthermore, the results confirmed that the Transformer model outperforms the LSTM-MSV-S2S model when applying PT and PT-FT methods.

Multi-Variate Tabular Data Processing and Visualization Scheme for Machine Learning based Analysis: A Case Study using Titanic Dataset (기계 학습 기반 분석을 위한 다변량 정형 데이터 처리 및 시각화 방법: Titanic 데이터셋 적용 사례 연구)

  • Juhyoung Sung;Kiwon Kwon;Kyoungwon Park;Byoungchul Song
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.121-130
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    • 2024
  • As internet and communication technology (ICT) is improved exponentially, types and amount of available data also increase. Even though data analysis including statistics is significant to utilize this large amount of data, there are inevitable limits to process various and complex data in general way. Meanwhile, there are many attempts to apply machine learning (ML) in various fields to solve the problems according to the enhancement in computational performance and increase in demands for autonomous systems. Especially, data processing for the model input and designing the model to solve the objective function are critical to achieve the model performance. Data processing methods according to the type and property have been presented through many studies and the performance of ML highly varies depending on the methods. Nevertheless, there are difficulties in deciding which data processing method for data analysis since the types and characteristics of data have become more diverse. Specifically, multi-variate data processing is essential for solving non-linear problem based on ML. In this paper, we present a multi-variate tabular data processing scheme for ML-aided data analysis by using Titanic dataset from Kaggle including various kinds of data. We present the methods like input variable filtering applying statistical analysis and normalization according to the data property. In addition, we analyze the data structure using visualization. Lastly, we design an ML model and train the model by applying the proposed multi-variate data process. After that, we analyze the passenger's survival prediction performance of the trained model. We expect that the proposed multi-variate data processing and visualization can be extended to various environments for ML based analysis.

Burqanism from the Origin of the Pastoral Nomadic Koryo Region and the Vision of Korean Livestock Farming (고려의 원시영역 유목초지, 그 부르칸(불함)이즘과 한국축산의 비전)

  • Chu Chae Hyok
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.71-82
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    • 2005
  • Khori(高麗) refers to the Chaabog(reindeer) that live on lichens(蘚) on Mt. Soyon(鮮) in which pastures are the cold and dry plateau of North Eurasia. Thus, the origin region of the Khori or Koguryo that are the ancestors of the reindeer-herding pastoral nomads(馴鹿 遊牧民) can be said to be the Steppe-Taiga-Tundra pastoral areas of North Eurasia and North America. When the pastoral nomads moved on to the great mountain(大山) zone of the Jangbaek(長白) to the Baekdu(白頭) Mountains, they could have been in contact with pastoral farmers or agricultural farmers living there and they became the farmers remaining on agricultural farms. They were the Koryo people, the ancestors of Korea. Staying in one place, they gradually forgot the origin of their reindeer-herding pastoral nomadic history in the Northwest area of Mt. Soyon, the small mountain(小山) zone of the Steppe-Taiga-Tundra pastoral areas. In other words, they lost their identity as reindeer-herding pastoral nomads when they entered the agricultural area after leaving the pastoral area. However, since their basic genes had already formed when they lived on the cold and dry plateau of North Eurasia, it is possible to study their pastoral nomadic history focusing on 'the minority living in the broad area(廣域少數)', by utilizing highly advanced biotechnological science and focusing on genes and information technology innovation, and removing various past hindrances in research. Therefore, it is not so difficult to restore the reindeerherding pastoral nomadic history of the Koguryo(高句麗) people and secure their pastoral nomadic identity, of which the first steps have already been taken into their historical stages. The Eurasian continent and the Korean peninsula, especially the cold and dry plateau of North Eurasia and the Korean peninsula have been closely related to each other ecologically and historically. They can never be a separate space at all. The Eurasian continent lies horizontally east to west and thus, the continent forms an isothermal zone. Also, since the time of producing their own foods, it was relatively easy for people with their technology to move to other places owing to the pastoral nomadic characteristic of mobility. Unlike the Chungyen(中原) region, western Asia and the regions covering the Siberia-Manchu-Korean peninsula where food production revolution was first made were connected to the Mongolian lichens route(蘚苔之路: Ni, ukinii jam) and steppe roads. Although the ecological conditions of nature have changed a bit throughout a long history, it was natural for the many tribes in North Asia living on the largest Steppe-Taiga-Tundra area in the world to have believed 'the legends related to animals in relation to their founders and ancestors(獸祖傳說)'. Assuming that Siberian tigers and the tigers living on Mt. Baekdu were connected ecologically and genetically because of the ecological characteristics of the animals, and their migration from plateau to plateau, we would suspect that the Chosun(朝鮮) tribe living on Mt. Baekdu were ethnically and culturally more closely connected to the farther removed Ural-Altai tribes that lived on the cold and dry plateau region than to the Han(i14;) tribe who lived in Chungyen(中原) that was close to Mt. Baekdu. More evidence is the structure of the Korean language which has the form of 'Subject + Object + Verb', which is assumed to have originated from the speedy lifestyle of the reindeer-herding pastoral nomads. The structure is quite different from that of the Han(漢) language, which is based on agricultural life. Also, it is natural for reindeer riding reindeerherding pastoral nomads or horse-riding sheep-herding pastoral nomads(騎馬, 羊遊牧民) to have held military and political power over the region and eventually to have established an ancient pastoral nomadic empire in the process of their conquest of agricultural regions. The stages for founding global empires in the history of mankind maybe largely divided into two, in terms of ecological conditions and occupations. They are the steppes and the oceans. Of course, the steppe-based empires were established based on the skills to deal with horses and the ability to shoot arrows while riding horses, along with the use of iron ware in the 8th century BC. The steppe-based empires became the foundation for an oceanic empire, which could have been established by the use of warships and warship guns since the 15th Century. Based on those facts, we know that Chosun, Puyo(夫餘), and Koguryo are the products of a developmental process of pastoral nomadic empires on the steppes. Maybe we can easily find the pastoral nomadic identity of the Koguryo more than we expected when we trace the origins and history of the Korean tribe living in the pastures located in the northwest area of Mt. Jangbaek by focusing on pastoral nomadic mobility and organization just as we have investigated the historic origins of Anglo-Saxons in America by focusing on the times before the 15th Century. In the process, we should keep in mind that English culture originated from the Industrial Revolution and was directly delivered to the American continent, although America was far from England and was not an intermediate point on long sojourns either. Further, American culture came back to England in a more advanced form later. The most important thing currently to be resolved is to cause Koreans to look back on their own history in a freer way of thinking and with diverse, profound, and sharp insight, taking away the old and existing conventional recognition that is entangled with complicated interests with Korean people and other countries. The meanings of Chosun, Khori, and Solongos have been interpreted arbitrarily without any historic evidence by the scholars who followed conventional tradition of fixed-minded aristocrats in an agricultural society. If the Siberian cultural properties of the stone age, the earthenware age, the bronze age, and the iron age are analyzed in such a way, archaeological discovery will never be able to contribute to the restoration of the Koguryo's pastoral nomadic identity. One should transcend the errors that tend to interpret the cultural properties discovered in the pastoral nomadic regions as not being differentiated from those of agricultural regions and just interpret them altogether from the agricultural point of view. A more careful intention is required in the interpretation of cultural properties of ancient Korean empires that seem to have been formed due to mutual interactions of pastoral nomadic and agricultural cultures. Also, it is required that the conventional recognition chain of 'reverse-genes' be severed, which has placed more weight on agricultural properties than pastoral nomadic ones, since their settlement on agricultural farms was made after the establishment of their ancient pastoral nomadic empires. There is no reason at all to place priority on stoneware, earthenware, bronze ware, and iron ware than on wooden ware(木器) and other ware which were made of animal skins(皮器), bones and horns(骨角器), in analyzing the history in the regions of reindeer or sheep pastures. Reading ancient Korean history from the perspective of pastoral nomadic history, one feels strongly the instinctive emotions to return to the natural 'mother place'. The reindeer-herding pastoral nomadic identity of the Koguryo people that has been accumulated in volumes in their genes and hidden deep inside and have interacted organically could be reborn with Burqanism(Burqan refers to 不咸 in Chinese), which was their religion by birth and symbolized as the red willow(紅柳=不咸). The mother place of the Koguryo's people is the endless vast green pastures of North Eurasia and North America, where we anticipated the development of Korean livestock farming following the inherent properties in the genes of the reindeer-herding pastoral nomads with Korean ancestors. We anticipate that the place would be the core resource that could contribute to the development of life of living creatures following the inherent properties of their genes and biotechnological factors. In other words, biotechnology used for a search for clues on the well-being of humans could be the fruit brought by Burqanism of the Koguryo people and the fruit of the globalization of Korean livestock farming. It is the Chosun farmer in China come from the vast nomadic reindeer pastures of North Eurasia that resolved the food problem of a billion Chinese people with lowland paddy rice seeds (水稻) by transforming Heilongjiang Province(黑龍江省) into an oceanic lowland paddy rice field(水田). Even Mao Tse-tung(毛擇東) could not resolve the food problem by his revolution campaigns for tens of years. Today is the very time that requires the development of special livestock farming following the inherent properties of the ancient Korean reindeer-herding pastoral nomads that respected the dignity of life on the cold and dry plateau of North Eurasia and the America continent. I suggest that research should be started from the pastures of the Dariganga Steppe in East Mongolia that was the homeland of Hanwoo(韓牛) and the central horse-herding steppe place(牧馬場) of Chingis Khan's Mongolia. The Dariganga Steppe is awash with an affluent natural environment for pastoral nomadic living however, the quality of life of the pastoral nomads there is still low. I suggest we Koreans, the descendents of the Koguryo, should take our first steps for our livestock farming business project and develop the Northern nomadic pastures, here at the pastures of the Dariganga Steppe, which is the Mongolian core place of state-of-the-art technology for military weapons.

The Effects of Consumer Value Cognition on Benefits and Attributes of Culture-Art Products (문화예술상품 소비자의 가치인식이 추구혜택과 상품속성에 미치는 영향)

  • Shin, Eun Joo;Rhee, Young Sun
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.177-207
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    • 2012
  • Today's consumers perceive consumption as a representation of themselves. It is not simply an act that fulfills a consumer's physical and practical needs. Even in terms of life quality, consumers increasingly want to achieve an emotional and sensible experience through consumption. Consumers now make decisions based on their need to express their position in relation to other people, pursue emotional satisfaction, and try to improve the quality of life. Culture-art products that meet such internal and external demands of consumers have made significant improvements in both quantity and quality, because of the social interest and policy support. The recognition of personal and social values of culture and arts has brought about interest in and need for culture-art products. Businesses have agilely embraced such change and actively implemented various marketing strategies utilizing culture and arts. For example, businesses began to sponsor artists who produce culture-art products while building facilities for cultural and art performances or exhibitions. Businesses have also provided performances and exhibitions free-of-charge or at affordable prices. As a result, the supply in the market has started to exceed its demand as is often the case in many of other markets. However, such imbalance has occurred not because of over-supply but because of a lack of demand. Given these circumstances, the government and culture and art related organizations, which had mainly concentrated on the supply side, started to recognize the importance of creating personal and social values in culture and arts. As a result, the government and various organizations are now creating various strategies that include policy measures to achieve their new found goal. Unfortunately however, such efforts are not meeting the expectations. Focusing on above-mentioned circumstances and problems, this study aims to find measures to create demand for culture-art products in the internal conditions of those who consume culture-art products. In other words, given that the demand for culture-art products has not increased despite all external conditions to encourage consumption, this study aims to find the reasons in consumers' value judgment on culture-art products. Though there were recent studies on culture-art products that applied consumer behavior on marketing theories, most of them focused on peripheral aspects such as people's motivation for or satisfaction from watching culture-art events. Hence, there is a need to understand what kind of value consumers perceive from culture-art products and how such value cognition leads to consumption in a comprehensive manner. This study acts as follow-up to a separate study entitled "Qualitative Study about Value Cognition and Benefits of Consumer on Culture-Art Products". The current study aims to extend practical implications that enhance the effectiveness of marketing strategies among the producing and policy agencies in the industry. The purpose of this study is to investigate dimensions of value cognition, benefits and attributes of culture-art products, and identify the effects of consumer value cognition on benefits and attributes. The questionnaire was developed based on the conceptual structure of qualitative research and previous researches. It was composed of value cognition, benefits, attributes of culture-art products and demographic variables. This survey was conducted on-line and off-line among a total of 662 persons ranging from their teens to their 50's who were living in Seoul, Gyeonggi-do, various metropolitan cities, and small and medium-sized cities. The data collected was analyzed by factor analysis and path analysis using SPSS WIN 18.0 and AMOS 16.0. This empirical study found that the dimensions of value cognition of culture-art products were categorized into personal goods, aesthetic goods and public property. This shows that the consumers perceive culture-art products as products that are worthy enough to pay the costs not just for personal benefits but also for their social values. Also the formation of value cognition for culture-art products requires special conditions unlike that for physical consumer goods and services, which simply require marketing stimuli. The dimensions of benefits pursued by consuming culture-art products were found to be composed of four types - pursuit of aesthetic benefits, pursuit of actual benefits, pursuit of emotional benefits, and pursuit of conspicuous character. This result implies that people consume culture-art products not just to pursue pleasure from emotional and intelligent satisfaction as well as social relations, but also to seek the needs and benefits embodied at a social level. The dimensions of attributes of culture-art products had seven different factors, - environmental, price, evaluation, people, artwork, composition, and personal relations - which is plentiful. This is because the attributes of culture-art products are very complicated compared to other consumer goods or services. Since culture-art products include not just cultural or artistic works but also all physical, human, environmental, and systemic elements of the products in a comprehensive manner, consumers perceive everything they experience in the process of consuming culture-art products as part of the products. The dimensions of value cognition was found to affect attributes of the products, mostly using pursued benefits as a mediating factors. This result is consistent with the result of qualitative research, and proves that applying the means-end chain theory in the reverse direction is reasonable. The result can be interpreted that consumers' value cognitions for culture-art products turns into actual benefits leading to consumers' decisions. Furthermore, this result reveals that when consumers choose culture-art products, they take into account the attributes of culture-art products depending on the benefits they pursue. These results confirm that despite their conceptual and abstract attributes, culture-art products have values that contribute to actual benefits for individual consumers and society. Hence, value cognition generates benefits to be pursued and this in turn affects the consumers' choices of attributes on products. Based on the conceptual structure of consumers' value cognitions on culture-art products and its dimensions, it is possible to find detailed methods to provide opportunities for education and training to form and reinforce positive value cognition on culture-art products. And through those methods, it will be possible to develop attributes of culture-art products according to the dimensions of pursued benefits, and allow conceptual products become the subject to valuable consumption in real life. These results provide theoretical understanding of consumer behavior in culture marketing and useful information to culture-art producers, companies that use culture and art, and government agencies that use culture-art as a mean to improve the public perception of quality of life. As a follow up on this study, there should be experimental studies that can develop criteria visualizing the demands of consumers who purchase culture-art products and identify their detailed attributes. Studies that compare characteristics of different areas within the culture-art product category and in-depth studies on a specific area or genre will also be needed. In order to develop marketing strategies for culture-art products, studies on the formation and reinforcement of positive value cognition on culture-art products and education for the development of consumer demand as well as on the development and differentiation of attributes of culture-art products depending on types of consumer groups should also follow.

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A Study on Interactions of Competitive Promotions Between the New and Used Cars (신차와 중고차간 프로모션의 상호작용에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Kwangpil
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.83-98
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    • 2012
  • In a market where new and used cars are competing with each other, we would run the risk of obtaining biased estimates of cross elasticity between them if we focus on only new cars or on only used cars. Unfortunately, most of previous studies on the automobile industry have focused on only new car models without taking into account the effect of used cars' pricing policy on new cars' market shares and vice versa, resulting in inadequate prediction of reactive pricing in response to competitors' rebate or price discount. However, there are some exceptions. Purohit (1992) and Sullivan (1990) looked into both new and used car markets at the same time to examine the effect of new car model launching on the used car prices. But their studies have some limitations in that they employed the average used car prices reported in NADA Used Car Guide instead of actual transaction prices. Some of the conflicting results may be due to this problem in the data. Park (1998) recognized this problem and used the actual prices in his study. His work is notable in that he investigated the qualitative effect of new car model launching on the pricing policy of the used car in terms of reinforcement of brand equity. The current work also used the actual price like Park (1998) but the quantitative aspect of competitive price promotion between new and used cars of the same model was explored. In this study, I develop a model that assumes that the cross elasticity between new and used cars of the same model is higher than those amongst new cars and used cars of the different model. Specifically, I apply the nested logit model that assumes the car model choice at the first stage and the choice between new and used cars at the second stage. This proposed model is compared to the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model that assumes that there is no decision hierarchy but that new and used cars of the different model are all substitutable at the first stage. The data for this study are drawn from Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates. PIN collects sales transaction data from a sample of dealerships in the major metropolitan areas in the U.S. These are retail transactions, i.e., sales or leases to final consumers, excluding fleet sales and including both new car and used car sales. Each observation in the PIN database contains the transaction date, the manufacturer, model year, make, model, trim and other car information, the transaction price, consumer rebates, the interest rate, term, amount financed (when the vehicle is financed or leased), etc. I used data for the compact cars sold during the period January 2009- June 2009. The new and used cars of the top nine selling models are included in the study: Mazda 3, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Jetta, Nissan Sentra, and Kia Spectra. These models in the study accounted for 87% of category unit sales. Empirical application of the nested logit model showed that the proposed model outperformed the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model in both calibration and holdout samples. The other comparison model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and car model choice at the second stage turned out to be mis-specfied since the dissimilarity parameter (i.e., inclusive or categroy value parameter) was estimated to be greater than 1. Post hoc analysis based on estimated parameters was conducted employing the modified Lanczo's iterative method. This method is intuitively appealing. For example, suppose a new car offers a certain amount of rebate and gains market share at first. In response to this rebate, a used car of the same model keeps decreasing price until it regains the lost market share to maintain the status quo. The new car settle down to a lowered market share due to the used car's reaction. The method enables us to find the amount of price discount to main the status quo and equilibrium market shares of the new and used cars. In the first simulation, I used Jetta as a focal brand to see how its new and used cars set prices, rebates or APR interactively assuming that reactive cars respond to price promotion to maintain the status quo. The simulation results showed that the IIA model underestimates cross elasticities, resulting in suggesting less aggressive used car price discount in response to new cars' rebate than the proposed nested logit model. In the second simulation, I used Elantra to reconfirm the result for Jetta and came to the same conclusion. In the third simulation, I had Corolla offer $1,000 rebate to see what could be the best response for Elantra's new and used cars. Interestingly, Elantra's used car could maintain the status quo by offering lower price discount ($160) than the new car ($205). In the future research, we might want to explore the plausibility of the alternative nested logit model. For example, the NUB model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and brand choice at the second stage could be a possibility even though it was rejected in the current study because of mis-specification (A dissimilarity parameter turned out to be higher than 1). The NUB model may have been rejected due to true mis-specification or data structure transmitted from a typical car dealership. In a typical car dealership, both new and used cars of the same model are displayed. Because of this fact, the BNU model that assumes brand choice at the first stage and choice between new and used cars at the second stage may have been favored in the current study since customers first choose a dealership (brand) then choose between new and used cars given this market environment. However, suppose there are dealerships that carry both new and used cars of various models, then the NUB model might fit the data as well as the BNU model. Which model is a better description of the data is an empirical question. In addition, it would be interesting to test a probabilistic mixture model of the BNU and NUB on a new data set.

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Ultrasonographic study on the masseter muscle thickness of adult Korean (한국인 성인의 교근 두께에 관한 초음파검사적 연구)

  • Cha, Bong-Kuen;Park, In-Woo;Lee, Yeun-Hee
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.31 no.2 s.85
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    • pp.225-236
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    • 2001
  • It is widely accepted that the shape and structure of bone are closely related to the activity of attached muscle. Numerous clinical and animal experimental studies indicated the significant effects of masticatory muscle function on maxillofacial morphology. Recently, the development of ultrasonography has spread throughout different fields of medicine. In the clinical examinations, ultrasonography is a convenient, inexpensive technique to apply with accurate and reliable results. The aim of this study is to assess the thickness of the masseter muscle and its correlation to maxillofacial skeleton by examining 35 male and 15 female dental students at Kangnung National University. The masseter muscle thickness of the subjects were measured by ultrasonographic scanning with a 7.5MHz linear probe, and their maxillofacial morphology were investigated by lateral cephalometric radiographs. The relationship between the masseter muscle thickness and maxillofacial morphology of normal adult was statistically analyzed, and the following results were obtained. 1. The average thickness of male masseter muscle was 13.8${\pm}$1.71mm in the relaxed state and 14.8${\pm}$1.77mm at maximal clenching state, while that of female was 11.6${\pm}$1.58mm and 12.4${\pm}$1.47mm, respectively. Ethnic difference in thickness of the masseter muscle and maxillofacial skeleton was found when the results of many researchers were compared with those of this study. 2. The thickness of the masseter muscle in both sexes increased significantly at maximal clenching state than in relaxed state(P<0.05). 3. The masseter muscle thickness of male was greater than that of female both in the relaxed state and maximal clenching states(P<0.05). 4. In males, the thickness of the masseter muscle was negatively correlated with the mandibular plane angle and positively correlated with the mandibular ramus height and anterior cranial base length(P<0.05). It may suggest that the male with thicker masseter muscle has smaller facial divergence. 5. No significant correlation was found between the masseter muscle thickness and maxillofacial morphology in females(P<0.05). Therefore, these data suggest that ultrasonography can add valuable information to the conventional examinations of masseter muscle function.

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Dynamic Limit and Predatory Pricing Under Uncertainty (불확실성하(不確實性下)의 동태적(動態的) 진입제한(進入制限) 및 약탈가격(掠奪價格) 책정(策定))

  • Yoo, Yoon-ha
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.151-166
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    • 1991
  • In this paper, a simple game-theoretic entry deterrence model is developed that integrates both limit pricing and predatory pricing. While there have been extensive studies which have dealt with predation and limit pricing separately, no study so far has analyzed these closely related practices in a unified framework. Treating each practice as if it were an independent phenomenon is, of course, an analytical necessity to abstract from complex realities. However, welfare analysis based on such a model may give misleading policy implications. By analyzing limit and predatory pricing within a single framework, this paper attempts to shed some light on the effects of interactions between these two frequently cited tactics of entry deterrence. Another distinctive feature of the paper is that limit and predatory pricing emerge, in equilibrium, as rational, profit maximizing strategies in the model. Until recently, the only conclusion from formal analyses of predatory pricing was that predation is unlikely to take place if every economic agent is assumed to be rational. This conclusion rests upon the argument that predation is costly; that is, it inflicts more losses upon the predator than upon the rival producer, and, therefore, is unlikely to succeed in driving out the rival, who understands that the price cutting, if it ever takes place, must be temporary. Recently several attempts have been made to overcome this modelling difficulty by Kreps and Wilson, Milgram and Roberts, Benoit, Fudenberg and Tirole, and Roberts. With the exception of Roberts, however, these studies, though successful in preserving the rationality of players, still share one serious weakness in that they resort to ad hoc, external constraints in order to generate profit maximizing predation. The present paper uses a highly stylized model of Cournot duopoly and derives the equilibrium predatory strategy without invoking external constraints except the assumption of asymmetrically distributed information. The underlying intuition behind the model can be summarized as follows. Imagine a firm that is considering entry into a monopolist's market but is uncertain about the incumbent firm's cost structure. If the monopolist has low cost, the rival would rather not enter because it would be difficult to compete with an efficient, low-cost firm. If the monopolist has high costs, however, the rival will definitely enter the market because it can make positive profits. In this situation, if the incumbent firm unwittingly produces its monopoly output, the entrant can infer the nature of the monopolist's cost by observing the monopolist's price. Knowing this, the high cost monopolist increases its output level up to what would have been produced by a low cost firm in an effort to conceal its cost condition. This constitutes limit pricing. The same logic applies when there is a rival competitor in the market. Producing a high cost duopoly output is self-revealing and thus to be avoided. Therefore, the firm chooses to produce the low cost duopoly output, consequently inflicting losses to the entrant or rival producer, thus acting in a predatory manner. The policy implications of the analysis are rather mixed. Contrary to the widely accepted hypothesis that predation is, at best, a negative sum game, and thus, a strategy that is unlikely to be played from the outset, this paper concludes that predation can be real occurence by showing that it can arise as an effective profit maximizing strategy. This conclusion alone may imply that the government can play a role in increasing the consumer welfare, say, by banning predation or limit pricing. However, the problem is that it is rather difficult to ascribe any welfare losses to these kinds of entry deterring practices. This difficulty arises from the fact that if the same practices have been adopted by a low cost firm, they could not be called entry-deterring. Moreover, the high cost incumbent in the model is doing exactly what the low cost firm would have done to keep the market to itself. All in all, this paper suggests that a government injunction of limit and predatory pricing should be applied with great care, evaluating each case on its own basis. Hasty generalization may work to the detriment, rather than the enhancement of consumer welfare.

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Cooperative Sales Promotion in Manufacturer-Retailer Channel under Unplanned Buying Potential (비계획구매를 고려한 제조업체와 유통업체의 판매촉진 비용 분담)

  • Kim, Hyun Sik
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.29-53
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    • 2012
  • As so many marketers get to use diverse sales promotion methods, manufacturer and retailer in a channel often use them too. In this context, diverse issues on sales promotion management arise. One of them is the issue of unplanned buying. Consumers' unplanned buying is clearly better off for the retailer but not for manufacturer. This asymmetric influence of unplanned buying should be dealt with prudently because of its possibility of provocation of channel conflict. However, there have been scarce studies on the sales promotion management strategy considering the unplanned buying and its asymmetric effect on retailer and manufacturer. In this paper, we try to find a better way for a manufacturer in a channel to promote performance through the retailer's sales promotion efforts when there is potential of unplanned buying effect. We investigate via game-theoretic modeling what is the optimal cost sharing level between the manufacturer and retailer when there is unplanned buying effect. We investigated following issues about the topic as follows: (1) What structure of cost sharing mechanism should the manufacturer and retailer in a channel choose when unplanned buying effect is strong (or weak)? (2) How much payoff could the manufacturer and retailer in a channel get when unplanned buying effect is strong (or weak)? We focus on the impact of unplanned buying effect on the optimal cost sharing mechanism for sales promotions between a manufacturer and a retailer in a same channel. So we consider two players in the game, a manufacturer and a retailer who are interacting in a same distribution channel. The model is of complete information game type. In the model, the manufacturer is the Stackelberg leader and the retailer is the follower. Variables in the model are as following table. Manufacturer's objective function in the basic game is as follows: ${\Pi}={\Pi}_1+{\Pi}_2$, where, ${\Pi}_1=w_1(1+L-p_1)-{\psi}^2$, ${\Pi}_2=w_2(1-{\epsilon}L-p_2)$. And retailer's is as follows: ${\pi}={\pi}_1+{\pi}_2$, where, ${\pi}_1=(p_1-w_1)(1+L-p_1)-L(L-{\psi})+p_u(b+L-p_u)$, ${\pi}_2=(p_2-w_2)(1-{\epsilon}L-p_2)$. The model is of four stages in two periods. Stages of the game are as follows. (Stage 1) Manufacturer sets wholesale price of the first period($w_1$) and cost sharing level of channel sales promotion(${\Psi}$). (Stage 2) Retailer sets retail price of the focal brand($p_1$), the unplanned buying item($p_u$), and sales promotion level(L). (Stage 3) Manufacturer sets wholesale price of the second period($w_2$). (Stage 4) Retailer sets retail price of the second period($p_2$). Since the model is a kind of dynamic games, we try to find a subgame perfect equilibrium to derive some theoretical and managerial implications. In order to obtain the subgame perfect equilibrium, we use the backward induction method. In using backward induction approach, we solve the problems backward from stage 4 to stage 1. By completely knowing follower's optimal reaction to the leader's potential actions, we can fold the game tree backward. Equilibrium of each variable in the basic game is as following table. We conducted more analysis of additional game about diverse cost level of manufacturer. Manufacturer's objective function in the additional game is same with that of the basic game as follows: ${\Pi}={\Pi}_1+{\Pi}_2$, where, ${\Pi}_1=w_1(1+L-p_1)-{\psi}^2$, ${\Pi}_2=w_2(1-{\epsilon}L-p_2)$. But retailer's objective function is different from that of the basic game as follows: ${\pi}={\pi}_1+{\pi}_2$, where, ${\pi}_1=(p_1-w_1)(1+L-p_1)-L(L-{\psi})+(p_u-c)(b+L-p_u)$, ${\pi}_2=(p_2-w_2)(1-{\epsilon}L-p_2)$. Equilibrium of each variable in this additional game is as following table. Major findings of the current study are as follows: (1) As the unplanned buying effect gets stronger, manufacturer and retailer had better increase the cost for sales promotion. (2) As the unplanned buying effect gets stronger, manufacturer had better decrease the cost sharing portion of total cost for sales promotion. (3) Manufacturer's profit is increasing function of the unplanned buying effect. (4) All results of (1),(2),(3) are alleviated by the increase of retailer's procurement cost to acquire unplanned buying items. The authors discuss the implications of those results for the marketers in manufacturers or retailers. The current study firstly suggests some managerial implications for the manufacturer how to share the sales promotion cost with the retailer in a channel to the high or low level of the consumers' unplanned buying potential.

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An integrated Method of New Casuistry and Specified Principlism as Nursing Ethics Methodology (새로운 간호윤리학 방법론;통합된 사례방법론)

  • Um, Young-Rhan
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing Administration
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.51-64
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    • 1997
  • The purpose of the study was to introduce an integrated approach of new Casuistry and specified principlism in resolving ethical problems and studying nursing ethics. In studying clinical ethics and nursing ethics, there is no systematic research method. While nurses often experience ethical dilemmas in practice, much of previous research on nursing ethics has focused merely on describing the existing problems. In addition, ethists presented theoretical analysis and critics rather than providing the specific problems solving strategies. There is a need in clinical situations for an integrated method which can provide the objective description for existing problem situations as well as specific problem solving methods. We inherit two distinct ways of discussing ethical issues. One of these frames these issues in terms of principles, rules, and other general ideas; the other focuses on the specific features of particular kinds of moral cases. In the first way general ethical rules relate to specific moral cases in a theoretical manner, with universal rules serving as "axioms" from which particular moral judgments are deduced as theorems. In the seconds, this relation is frankly practical. with general moral rules serving as "maxims", which can be fully understood only in terms of the paradigmatic cases that define their meaning and force. Theoretical arguments are structured in ways that free them from any dependence on the circumstances of their presentation and ensure them a validity of a kind that is not affected by the practical context of use. In formal arguments particular conclusions are deduced from("entailed by") the initial axioms or universal principles that are the apex of the argument. So the truth or certainty that attaches to those axioms flows downward to the specific instances to be "proved". In the language of formal logic, the axioms are major premises, the facts that specify the present instance are minor premises, and the conclusion to be "proved" is deduced (follows necessarily) from the initial presises. Practical arguments, by contrast, involve a wider range of factors than formal deductions and are read with an eye to their occasion of use. Instead of aiming at strict entailments, they draw on the outcomes of previous experience, carrying over the procedures used to resolve earlier problems and reapply them in new problmatic situations. Practical arguments depend for their power on how closely the present circumstances resemble those of the earlier precedent cases for which this particular type of argument was originally devised. So. in practical arguments, the truths and certitudes established in the precedent cases pass sideways, so as to provide "resolutions" of later problems. In the language of rational analysis, the facts of the present case define the gounds on which any resolution must be based; the general considerations that carried wight in similar situations provide warrants that help settle future cases. So the resolution of any problem holds good presumptively; its strengh depends on the similarities between the present case and the prededents; and its soundness can be challenged (or rebutted) in situations that are recognized ans exceptional. Jonsen & Toulmin (1988), and Jonsen (1991) introduce New Casuistry as a practical method. The oxford English Dictionary defines casuistry quite accurately as "that part of ethics which resolves cases of conscience, applying the general rules of religion and morality to particular instances in which circumstances alter cases or in which there appears to be a conflict of duties." They modified the casuistry of the medieval ages to use in clinical situations which is characterized by "the typology of cases and the analogy as an inference method". A case is the unit of analysis. The structure of case was made with interaction of situation and moral rules. The situation is what surrounds or stands around. The moral rule is the essence of case. The analogy can be objective because "the grounds, the warrants, the theoretical backing, the modal qualifiers" are identified in the cases. The specified principlism was the method that Degrazia (1992) integrated the principlism and the specification introduced by Richardson (1990). In this method, the principle is specified by adding information about limitations of the scope and restricting the range of the principle. This should be substantive qualifications. The integrated method is an combination of the New Casuistry and the specified principlism. For example, the study was "Ethical problems experienced by nurses in the care of terminally ill patients"(Um, 1994). A semi-structured in-depth interview was conducted for fifteen nurses who mainly took care of terminally ill patients. The first stage, twenty one cases were identified as relevant to the topic, and then were classified to four types of problems. For instance, one of these types was the patient's refusal of care. The second stage, the ethical problems in the case were defined, and then the case was analyzed. This was to analyze the reasons, the ethical values, and the related ethical principles in the cases. Then the interpretation was synthetically done by integration of the result of analysis and the situation. The third stage was the ordering phase of the cases, which was done according to the result of the interpretation and the common principles in the cases. The first two stages describe the methodology of new casuistry, and the final stage was for the methodology of the specified principlism. The common principles were the principle of autonomy and the principle of caring. The principle of autonomy was specified; when competent patients refused care, nurse should discontinue the care to respect for the patients' decision. The principle of caring was also specified; when the competent patients refused care, nurses should continue to provide the care in spite of the patients' refusal to preserve their life. These specification may lead the opposite behavior, which emphasizes the importance of nurse's will and intentions to make their decision in the clinical situations.

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The Effect of PET/CT Images on SUV with the Correction of CT Image by Using Contrast Media (PET/CT 영상에서 조영제를 이용한 CT 영상의 보정(Correction)에 따른 표준화섭취계수(SUV)의 영향)

  • Ahn, Sha-Ron;Park, Hoon-Hee;Park, Min-Soo;Lee, Seung-Jae;Oh, Shin-Hyun;Lim, Han-Sang;Kim, Jae-Sam;Lee, Chang-Ho
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.77-81
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    • 2009
  • Purpose: The PET of the PET/CT (Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography) quantitatively shows the biological and chemical information of the body, but has limitation of presenting the clear anatomic structure. Thus combining the PET with CT, it is not only possible to offer the higher resolution but also effectively shorten the scanning time and reduce the noises by using CT data in attenuation correction. And because, at the CT scanning, the contrast media makes it easy to determine a exact range of the lesion and distinguish the normal organs, there is a certain increase in the use of it. However, in the case of using the contrast media, it affects semi-quantitative measures of the PET/CT images. In this study, therefore, we will be to establish the reliability of the SUV (Standardized Uptake Value) with CT data correction so that it can help more accurate diagnosis. Materials and Methods: In this experiment, a total of 30 people are targeted - age range: from 27 to 72, average age : 49.6 - and DSTe (General Electric Healthcare, Milwaukee, MI, USA) is used for equipment. $^{18}F$- FDG 370~555 MBq is injected into the subjects depending on their weight and, after about 60 minutes of their stable position, a whole-body scan is taken. The CT scan is set to 140 kV and 210 mA, and the injected amount of the contrast media is 2 cc per 1 kg of the patients' weight. With the raw data from the scan, we obtain a image showing the effect of the contrast media through the attenuation correction by both of the corrected and uncorrected CT data. Then we mark out ROI (Region of Interest) in each area to measure SUV and analyze the difference. Results: According to the analysis, the SUV is decreased in the liver and heart which have more bloodstream than the others, because of the contrast media correction. On the other hand, there is no difference in the lungs. Conclusions: Whereas the CT scan images with the contrast media from the PET/CT increase the contrast of the targeted region for the test so that it can improve efficiency of diagnosis, there occurred an increase of SUV, a semi-quantitative analytical method. In this research, we measure the variation of SUV through the correction of the influence of contrast media and compare the differences. As we revise the SUV which is increasing in the image with attenuation correction by using contrast media, we can expect anatomical images of high-resolution. Furthermore, it is considered that through this trusted semi-quantitative method, it will definitely enhance the diagnostic value.

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