• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.3-62
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• 2004

This paper estimates Korea's natural rate of unemployment using various estimation methods such as pure time-series methods, reduced-form methods, and structural form methods, with discussion about relative advantages and disadvantages of each estimation method. This paper also provides the confidence interval of the estimated natural rate of unemployment by the Monte Carlo integration method. Though multivariate unobserved component model exhibits better performance in many aspects than other estimation methods, awareness should be raised for a potential misspecification problem of a multivariate unobserved component model. Considering that each method has its own advantages and disadvantages, it is recommended to make an inference on the natural rate of unemployment based on common results among various methods. Korea's natural rate of unemployment was estimated to be around 3.8~4.0% on average in the period of 1979:I~1987:IV, and to decline to 2.5~2.9% in the period of 1988:I~1997:IV. During the Asian crisis, it is estimated to peak at near 4.8% and to have been on a downward trend since then.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.147-165
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• 1992

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of elections on the Korean economy and their future ramifications. It measures the shocks to the Korean economy caused by elections by taking the average of sample forecast errors from four major elections held in the 1980s. The seven variables' Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model which includes the Monetary Base, Industrial Production, Consumption, Consumer Price, Exports, and Investment is based on the quarterly time series data starting from 1970 and is updated every quarter before forecasts are made for the next quarter. Because of this updating of coefficients, which reflects in part the rapid structural changes of the Korean economy, this study can capture the shock effect of elections, which is not possible when using election dummies with a fixed coefficient model. In past elections, especially the elections held in the 1980s, $M_2$ did not show any particular movement, but the currency and base money increased during the quarter of the election was held and the increment was partly recalled in the next quarter. The liquidity of interest rates as measured by corporate bond yields fell during the quarter the election and then rose in the following quarter, which is somewhat contrary to the general concern that interest rates will increase during election periods. Manufacturing employment fell in the quarter of the election because workers turned into campaigners. This decline in employment combined with voting holiday produce a sizeable decline in industrial production during the quarter in which elections are held, but production catches up in the next quarter and sometimes more than offsets the disruption caused during the election quarter. The major shocks to price occur in the previous quarter, reflecting the expectational effect and the relaxation of government price control before the election when we simulate the impulse responses of the VAR model, imposing the same shocks that was measured in the past elections for each election to be held in 1992 and assuming that the elections in 1992 will affect the economy in the same manner as in the 1980s elections, 1992 is expected to see a sizeable increase in monetary base due to election and prices increase pressure will be amplified substantially. On the other hand, the consumption increase due to election is expected to be relatively small and the production will not decrease. Despite increased liquidity, a large portion of liquidity in circulation being used as election funds will distort the flow of funds and aggravate the fund shortage causing investments in plant and equipment and construction activities to stagnate. These effects will be greatly amplified if elections for the head of local government are going to be held this year. If mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held after National Assembly elections, their effect on prices and investment will be approximately double what they normally will have been have only congressional and presidential elections been held. Even when mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held at the same time as congressional elections, the elections of local government heads are shown to add substantial effects to the economy for the year. The above results are based on the assumption that this year's elections will shock the economy in the same manner as in past elections. However, elections in consecutive quarters do not give the economy a chance to pause and recuperate from past elections. This year's elections may have greater effects on prices and production than shown in the model's simulations because campaigners' return to industry may be delayed. Therefore, we may not see a rapid recall of money after elections. In view of the surge in the monetary base and price escalation in the periods before and after elections, economic management in 1992 should place its first priority on controlling the monetary aggregate, in particular, stabilizing the growth of the monetary base.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.40 no.2
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• pp.49-70
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• 2009

This study proviedes GARCH model(Bollerslev, 1986) to analyze the structural characteristics of price volatility in domestic aquacultural fish market of Korea. As a case study, flatfish and rock-fish are analyzed as major species with relatively high portion in an aspect of production volume among fish captured in Korea. For analyzing, this study uses daily market data (dating from Jan 1 2000 to June 30, 2008) published by the Noryangjin Fisheries Wholesale Market which is located in Seoul of Korea. This study performs normality test on trading volume and price volatility of flatfish and rock-fish as an advanced empirical approach. The normality test adopted is Jarque-Bera test statistic. As a result, first, a null hypothesis that "an empirical distribution follows normal distribution" was rejected in both fishes. The distribution of daily market data of them were not only biased toward positive(+) direction in terms of kurtosis and skewness, but also characterized by leptokurtic distribution with long right tail. Secondly, serial correlations were found in data on market trading volume and price volatility of two species during very long period. Thirdly, the results of unit root test and ARCH-LM test showed that all data of time series were very stationary and demonstrated effects of ARCH. These statistical characteristics can be explained as a reasonable ground for supporting the fitness of GARCH model in order to estimate conditional variances that reveal price volatility in empirical analysis. From empirical data analysis above, this study drew the following conclusions. First of all, from an empirical analysis on potential effects of seasonality and the day of week on price volatility of aquacultural fish, Monday effects were found in both species and Thursday and Friday effects were also found in flatfish. This indicates that Monday is effective in expanding price volatility of aquacultural fish market and also Monday has higher effects upon the price volatility of fish than other days of week have since it has more new information for weekend. Secondly, the empirical analysis led to a common conclusion that there was very high price volatility of flatfish and rock-fish. This points out that the persistency parameter($\lambda$), an index of possibility for current volatility to sustain similarly in the future, was higher than 0.8-equivalently nearly to 1-in both flatfish and rock-fish, which presents volatility clustering. Also, this study estimated and compared and model that hypothesized normal distributions in order to determine fitness of respective models. As a result, the fitness of GARCH(1, 1)-t model was better than model where the distribution of error term was hypothesized through-distribution due to characteristics of fat-tailed distribution, was also better than model, as described in the results of basic statistic analysis. In conclusion, this study has an important mean in that it was introduced firstly in Korea to investigate in price volatility of Korean aquacultural fishery products, although there was partially a limited of official statistic data. Therefore, it is expected that the results of this study will be useful as a reference material for making and assessing governmental policies. Also, it is looked forward that the results will be helpful to build a fishery business plan as and aspect of producer, and also to take timely measures to potential price fluctuations of fishery products in market. Hence, it is advisable that further studies related to such price volatility in fishery market will extend and evolve into a wider variety of articles and issues in near future.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.30 no.6 s.112
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• pp.439-446
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• 2006

In ship structures many of the structural plates have cutouts, for example, at inner bottom structure, girder, upper deck hatch, floor and dia-frame etc. In the case where a plate has a cutout it experiences reduced buckling and ultimate strength and at the same time the in-plane stress under compressive load produced by hull girder bending will be redistributed In general, actual ship structure adopted reinforcement of stiffener around the cutout in order to preventing from buckling so it need to examine a buckling and ultimate strength behaviour considering a cutout because In many ship yards used class rule for calculating buckling strength but it is difficult to evaluate perforate stiffened plate with random size. In the present paper, we investigated several kinds of perforated stiffened model from actual ship and then was performed finite element series analysis varying the cutout ratio, web height, thickness and type of cross-section using commercial FEA program(ANSYS) under compressive load.

• Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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• v.44 no.2
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• pp.76-95
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• 2011

After dismantled, Mireuksajiseoktap(Stone pagoda of Mireuksa Templesite) is being in the stage of restoration design. Now, different ways - producing restoration model, a 3 dimension simulation - have been requested to make more detailed and clearer restoration design prior to confirmation of its restoration design and actual restoration carry-out. This thesis proposes the way to build the detailed model for better restoration plan using extensively-used Reverse Engineering technique and Rapid Prototyping. It also introduces each stage such as a 3-dimension actual measurement, building database, a 3-dimension simulation etc., to build a desirable model. On the top of that, this thesis reveals that after dismantled, MIruksaji stone pagoda's interior and exterior were not constructed into pieces but wholeness, so that its looks can be grasped in more virtually and clearly. Secondly, this thesis makes a 3-dimension study on the 2-dimension design possible by acquiring basic materials about a 3-dimension design. Thirdly, the individual feature of each member like the change of member location can be comprehended, considering comparing analysis and joint condition of member. Lastly, in the structural perspective this thesis can be used as reference materials for structure reinforcement design by grasping destructed aspects of stone pagoda and weak points of the structure. In dismantlement-repair and restoration work of cultural properties that require delicate attention and exactness, there may be evitable errors on time and space in building reinforcement and restoration design based on a 2-dimension plan. Especially, the more complicate and bigger the subject is, the more difficult an analysis about the status quo and its delicate design are. A series of pre-review, based on the 3-dimension data according to actual measurement, can be one of the effective way to minimize the possibility that errors about time - space happen by building more delicate plan and resolving difficulties.

• Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.289-301
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• 2023

Forests within watersheds are essential in maintaining ecosystems and are the central infrastructure for constructing an ecological network system. However, due to indiscriminate development projects carried out over past decades, forest fragmentation and land use changes have accelerated, and their original functions have been lost. Since a forest's structural pattern directly impacts ecological processes and functions in understanding forest ecosystems, identifying and analyzing change patterns is essential. Therefore, this study analyzed structural changes in the forest landscape according to the time-series land cover changes using the FRAGSTATS model for the dam watershed of the Geum River upstream. Land cover changes in the dam watershed of the Geum River upstream through land cover change detection showed an increase of 33.12 square kilometers (0.62%) of forests and 67.26 square kilometers (1.26%) of urbanized dry areas and a decrease of 148.25 square kilometers (2.79%) in agricultural areas from the 1980s to the 2010s. The results of no-sampling forest landscape analysis within the watershed indicated landscape percentage (PLAND), area-weighted proximity index (CONTIG_AM), average central area (CORE_MN), and adjacency index (PLADJ) increased, and the number of patches (NP), landscape shape index (LSI), and cohesion index (COHESION) decreased. Identification of structural change patterns through a moving window analysis showed the forest landscape in Sangju City, Gyeongsangbuk Province, Boeun County in Chungcheongbuk Province, and Jinan Province in Jeollabuk Province was relatively well preserved, but fragmentation was ongoing at the border between Okcheon County in Chungcheongbuk Province, Yeongdong and Geumsan Counties in Chungcheongnam Province, and the forest landscape in areas adjacent to Muju and Jangsu Counties in Jeollabuk Province. The results indicate that it is necessary to establish afforestation projects for fragmented areas when preparing a future regional forest management strategy. This study derived areas where fragmentation of forest landscapes is expected and the results may be used as basic data for assessing the health of watershed forests and establishing management plans.