• Agribusiness and Information Management
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.13-23
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• 2012

Understanding climate change is not only complex but also extensive. Humanity has never embarked on such a huge challenge of trans-national scope: a problem that began in the past continues now and will be continuing for a long time in the future. Nepalese have also significantly felt the impact of global climate change. The scenarios of climate change indicate that the increased temperatures will cause snow-melt which will result in floods, droughts, and uneven weather patterns. The impact of such unexpected climate hazards and weather patterns have already been felt and will continue to be felt in Nepal. These climate change-induced hazards and risks particularly threaten the agriculture sector, which results in food insecurity and makes poor and vulnerable people face increasingly unanticipated impacts to their lives and wellbeing. This paper explores the climate vulnerability of the Nepalese in terms of their physical, social, economic and primarily agricultural losses due to the increasing impact of climate change. The paper argues the need for a timely adaptation of measures to maintain an environment suitable for agriculture and for the well-being of the population residing in the area.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.99-123
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• 2005

Although the generation market is competitive, the power market is easily exercised the market power by one generator due to its special futures such as a limited supplier, large investment cost, transmission constraints and loss. Specially, as Korea Electric industry restructuring is similar US competitive wholesale electricity market structure which discovered the several evidences of market power abuse, when restructuring is completed the possibility that market power will be exercised is big. Market power interferes with market competitions and efficiency of system. The goal of this study is to investigate the market price effects of the potential market power and the proposed market power mitigation strategy in Korean market using the forecasting wholesale electricity market model. This modeling is developed based on the system dynamics approach. it can analyze the dynamic behaviors of wholesale prices in Korean market. And then it is expanded to include the effect of market condition changed by 'strategic behavior' and 'real time pricing.' This model can generate the overall insights regarding the dynamic impact of output withholding by old gas fire power plant bon as a marginal plant in Korean market at the macro level. Also it will give the energy planner the opportunity to create different scenarios for the future for deregulated wholesales market in Korea.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.461-475
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• 2021

Strategic structures are a potential target of the growing terrorist attacks, so their performance under explosion hazard has been paid attention by researchers in the last years. In this regard, the aim of this study is to evaluate the blast-resistance performance of lead-rubber bearing (LRB) base isolation system based on a probabilistic framework while uncertainties related to the charge weight and standoff distance have been taken into account. A sensitivity analysis is first performed to show the effect of explosion uncertainty on the response of base-isolated buildings. The blast fragility curve is then developed for three base-isolated steel moment-resisting buildings with different heights of 4, 8 and 12 stories. The results of sensitivity analysis show that although LRB has the capability of reducing the peak response of buildings under explosion hazard, this control system may lead to increase in the peak response of buildings under some explosion scenarios. This shows the high importance of probabilistic-based assessment of isolated structures under explosion hazard. The blast fragility analysis shows effective performance of LRB in mitigating the probability of failure of buildings. Therefore, LRB can be introduced as effective control system for the protection of buildings from explosion hazard regarding uncertainty effect.

• Advances in aircraft and spacecraft science
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.33-53
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• 2024

This paper presents a comprehensive investigation into the optimization of Flight Management Systems (FMS) with a particular emphasis on data processing efficiency by conducting a comparative study with conventional methods to edge-computing technology. The objective of this research is twofold. Firstly, it evaluates the performance of FMS navigation systems using conventional and edge computing methodologies. Secondly, it aims to extend the boundaries of knowledge in edge-computing technology by conducting a rigorous analysis of terrain data and its implications on flight path optimization along with communication with ground stations. The study employs a combination of simulation-based experimentation and algorithmic computations. Through strategic intervals along the flight path, critical parameters such as distance, altitude profiles, and flight path angles are dynamically assessed. Additionally, edge computing techniques enhance data processing speeds, ensuring adaptability to various scenarios. This paper challenges existing paradigms in flight management and opens avenues for further research in integrating edge computing within aviation technology. The findings presented herein carry significant implications for the aviation industry, ranging from improved operational efficiency to heightened safety measures.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.53-74
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• 2010

The creation and acceptance of new technologies has been speeding up dramatically in modern times. There are also significant uncertainties about the future shape of markets, governance and social values that will have an important impact on organizations and their capacity to meet their objectives. These rapid technological and social change and uncertainties make the upsurge of interest in technology foresight, giving rise to its emergence as a global concept and policy tool. A wide range of future methods are available for technology foresight. Selection of methods will depend upon several factors, most notably available and the time financial resources, and the objectives of the exercise. Although Delphi has been widely used for many years, scenario becomes very popular in recent years. The use of scenarios can take better account of the complexity and unpredictability of the economic, social and political environments. Scenarios tell the stories describing paths to different futures, which help organizations make better decisions today. In this study, the scenario method was employed to draw the images of the future of renewable energy. Renewable energy grows dramatically in recent years. However, there is still considerable uncertainty with regard to the potential of renewable energy due to environment regulation, energy costs, and political and economic developments in the main supplier countries for oil and natural gas. Scenario can help us to identify the risks and opportunities when we develop the renewable energy, and to prepare for them. The scenario method is expected to be more utilized in the national technology foresight.

• Resources Recycling
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.43-50
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• 2020

This study reviewed the examples on analyses of the potential impacts to waste management, due to the recent trends of waste trade regulation, and summarized an analysis strategy of the impacts. As a result, a desirable analysis may begin with reasonable estimation of recent waste amounts and flows, and reasonable prediction of the future trends of waste amounts. Then, it is effective to list various key factors and derive future scenarios of the impacts, as well as employ the traditional viewpoints focusing on waste material flow or environmental regulations. The applicable analyses for each scenario can be largely divided into qualitative and quantitative methods. Due to a high uncertainty in the recent international situations with entailing possible innovative economic changes, qualitative methods may be considered in advance, and then quantitative techniques may be utilized to predict gradual changes at relieved uncertainty of the situations. Based on this review so far, proper methodology and procedures for the impact analysis were suggested on recent waste trade conditions in Korea. Given existence of the recent uncertainties such as the health and economic crises, the analysis preferably focused on deriving strategic scenarios with respect to various aspects, and suggested analysis methods applicable to each scenario.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.1 no.2
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• pp.5-31
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• 2000

The summit meeting of the South North Korean leaders was a turning point in the relationships between the two countries. It was followed by the Red-Cross Meeting, Minister-Level Meeting, economic agreements, which have increased the relationship more colorful in both quantities and qualities. However, the half-century period for separation was too long to overcome all the problems by only one event. The two countries have quite different social systems; one politically strong person is governing the North, while many interest groups are involved in political decision making processes in the South. In short, it would take a long time to settle down all the problems residing between the two countries. A system dynamics model is developed to describe the long term dynamics of the relations between the South and North Koreas. As a first attempt, the model focuses only on the diplomatic meeting issues between the South and North. The model aggregates diplomatic issues into 5 categories; economic issues, security issues, infrastructure, cultural issues, and past problems. It assumes that there would not be any dramatic changes between the two countries. It is a conceptual model composed of around 200 variables, and should not be used as a forecast tool. However, it captures most of the logics discussed in the papers and conferences concerning the South and North Korea relations. Many sensitivity studies and Monte Carlo simulations have shown that the simulation results matches with mental models of experts; that is the model can be used as a learning tool or as a secondary opinion until the data required by the model is collected. In order to analyze the current situation, five scenarios are simulated and analyzed; the functional approach, the conditional approach, the balanced approach, the circumstantial approach, and the strategic approach. The functional approach represents that the South makes efforts in the area where the possibility of agreement is high for the next 10 years. The conditional approach is a scenario where the South impose all difficult issues as conditions for resolving other diplomatic issues. The balanced approach is resolving the five issues with the same priorities, while the circumstantial approach is resolving issues which seem to be resolved easily. Finally, another optimum approach has been seek using the system dynamics model developed. The optimum strategy (it is named as the strategic approach) was strikingly different from other four approaches. The optimum strategy is so complicated that no one could find it with mental model(or by just insights). Considering that the system dynamic model used to find the optimum is a simplifind (maybe over simplified) version of the reality, it is concluded that a well designed system dynamics model would be of great help to resolving the complicated diplomatic problems in any kind.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.10-20
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• 2024

The conservation and restoration of wetlands are essential tasks for the sustainable development of human society and the environment, providing vital benefits such as biodiversity maintenance, natural disaster mitigation, and climate change alleviation. This study aims to analyze the strategic interactions and interests among various stakeholders using game theory and to provide significant grounds for policy decisions related to wetland restoration and development. In this study, hypothetical scenarios were set up for three types of cities: large, medium, and small. Stakeholders such as governments, development companies, environmental groups, and local residents were identified. Strategic options for each stakeholder were developed, and a payoff matrix was established through discussions among wetland ecology experts. Subsequently, non-cooperative game theory was applied to analyze Nash equilibria and Pareto efficiency. In large cities, strategies of 'Wetland Conservation' and 'Eco-Friendly Development' were found beneficial for all stakeholders. In medium cities, various strategies were identified, while in small cities, 'Eco-Friendly Development' emerged as the optimal solution for all parties involved. The Pareto efficiency analysis revealed how the optimal solutions for wetland management could vary across different city types. The study highlighted the importance of wetland conservation, eco-friendly development, and wetland restoration projects for each city type. Accordingly, policymakers should establish regulations and incentives that harmonize environmental protection and urban development and consider programs that promote community participation. Understanding the roles and strategies of stakeholders and the advantages and disadvantages of each strategy is crucial for making more effective policy decisions.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.109-120
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• 2020

The supply chain without digitization is just a series of discrete, siloed steps taken through marketing, product development, manufacturing, and logistics, and finally into the hands of the customer. Digitization brings down those walls, and the chain becomes a completely integrated network fully transparent to all the parties involved. The ulitimate goals of digitizatized supply chain management are velocity and visibility. This network will depend on a number of key technologies including integrated planning and execution systems, supply chain analytics, autonomous logistics, smart warehousing and factory, etc, enabling companies to react to disruptions in the supply chain, and even anticipate them, by fully modeling the network, creating "what-if" scenarios, and adjusting the supply chain in real time as conditions change. This paper presents a number of studies on digitalization of supply chains and provides a discussion on issues raised in the process of technology adoption. Implications of the study findings are also provided.

• The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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• v.4 no.6
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• pp.1589-1600
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• 1997

The construction of optical access network costs upper 40% in total installation cost of total optical network. Optimization of access network therefore is core in optical network. Advanced countries include EU, Japan and USA already have researched access network. This paper presents analysis of three broad-band fiber-optics subscriber loop architectures(HFC, ATM-PON, Super PON). The analyses focus on the specific demonstrated architectures and use component cost projections to estimate future network costs on a per-subscriber basis. We use TITAN(Tool for Introduction Scenarios and Techno-Economic Evaluation of The Access Network) model. We find that ATM-PON can deliver voice and ISDN data at installed first costs than the other architectures. This is due to the sharing bandwidth among a cluster of subscribers within Curb. This work intends to support establishing guidelines for strategic decisions regarding the development of the access network alternatives of different operators.