• 한국수산과학회지
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• 제53권6호
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• pp.925-933
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• 2020

This study is aimed to compare stock assessment models which are effective in assessing red snow crab Chinonoecetes japonicus resources and to select and apply an effective stock assessment model in the future. In order to select an effective stock assessment model, a process-error model, observation-error model, and a Bayesian state-space model were estimated. Analytical results show that the least error is observed between the estimated CPUE (catch per unit effort) and the observed CPUE when using the Bayesian state-space model. For the Bayesian state-space model, the 95% credible interval(CI) ranges for the maximum sustainable yield (MSY), carrying capacity (K), catchability coefficient (q), and intrinsic growth (r) are estimated to be 10,420-47,200 tons, 185,200-444,800 tons, 3.81E-06-9.02E-06, and 0.14-0.66, respectively. The results show that the Bayesian state-space model was most reliable among models.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제46권2호
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• pp.59-74
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• 2015

This study aims to estimate optimal harvesting production, fishing efforts, and stock levels of yellow croaker caught by the offshore Stow Net and the offshore Gill Net fisheries using the current value Hamiltonian method and the surplus production model. As analyzing processes, firstly, this study uses the Gavaris general linear model to estimate standardized fishing efforts of yellow croaker caught by the above multiple fisheries. Secondly, this study applies the Clarke Yoshimoto Pooley(CY&P) model among the various exponential growth models to estimate intrinsic growth rate(r), environmental carrying capacity(K), and catchability coefficient(q) of yellow croaker which inhabits in offshore area of Korea. Thirdly, the study determines optimal harvesting production, fishing efforts, and stock levels of yellow croaker using the current value Hamiltonian method which is including average landing price of yellow croaker, average unit cost of fishing efforts, and social discount rate based on standard of the Korean Development Institute. Finally, this study tries sensitivity analysis to understand changes in optimal harvesting production, fishing efforts, and stock levels of yellow croaker caused by changes in economic and biological parameters. As results drawn by the current value Hamiltonian model, the optimal harvesting production, fishing efforts, and stock levels of yellow croaker caught by the multiple fisheries were estimated as 19,173 ton, 101,644 horse power, and 146,144 ton respectively. In addition, as results of sensitivity analysis, firstly, if the social discount rate and the average landing price of yellow croaker continuously increase, the optimal harvesting production of yellow croaker increases at decreasing rate and then finally slightly decreases due to decreases in stock levels of yellow croaker. Secondly, if the average unit cost of fishing efforts continuously increases, the optimal fishing efforts of the multiple fisheries decreases, but the optimal stock level of yellow croaker increases. The optimal harvest starts climbing and then continuously decreases due to increases in the average unit cost. Thirdly, when the intrinsic growth rate of yellow croaker increases, the optimal harvest, fishing efforts, and stock level all continuously increase. In conclusion, this study suggests that the optimal harvesting production and fishing efforts were much less than actual harvesting production(35,279 ton) and estimated standardized fishing efforts(175,512 horse power) in 2013. This result implies that yellow croaker has been overfished due to excessive fishing efforts. Efficient management and conservative policy on stock of yellow croaker need to be urgently implemented.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• 제40권4호
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• pp.237-247
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• 2018

This study aims to estimate optimal harvests, fishing efforts, and stock levels of hairtail harvested by the large pair bottom trawl, the large otter trawl, the large purse seine, the offshore long line, and the offshore angling fisheries by using the surplus production models and the current value Hamiltonian method. Processes of this study are as follows. First of all, this study estimates the standardized fishing efforts regarding the harvesting of the hairtail by the above five fishing gears based on the general linear model developed by Gavaris. Secondly, this study estimates environmental carrying capacity (k), intrinsic growth rate (r), and catchability coefficient (q) by applying the Clarke Yoshimoto Pooley (CY&P) model among various surplus production models. Thirdly, this study estimates the optimal harvests, fishing efforts, and stock levels regarding the hairtail by the current value Hamiltonian method, including the average landing price, the average unit cost, and the social discount rate. Finally, this study attempts a sensitivity analysis to figure out changes in optimal harvests, fishing efforts, and stock levels due to changes in the average landing price and the average unit cost. As results induced by the current value Hamiltonian method, the optimal harvests, fishing efforts, and stock levels regarding the hairtail caught by several fishing gears were estimated as 33,133 tons, 901,080 horse power, and 79,877 tons, respectively. In addition, from the results of the sensitivity analysis, first of all, if the average landing price of the hairtail constantly increases, the optimal harvests of it increase at a decreasing rate, and then harvests finally slightly decrease as a result of decreases in stock levels. Secondly, if the average unit cost of fishing efforts continuously increases, the optimal fishing efforts decreases, but optimal stock levels increase. Optimal harvests start climbing and then decrease continuously due to increases in the average unit cost. In summary, this study suggests that the optimal harvests (33,133 tons) were larger than actual harvests (25,133 tons), but the optimal fishing efforts (901,080 horse power) were much less than estimated standardized fishing efforts (1,277,284 horse power), corresponding to the average of the recent three years (2014-2016). This result implies that the hairtail has been inefficiently harvested and recently overfished due to excessive fishing efforts. Efficient management and conservation policies on stock levels need to be urgently implemented. Some appropriate strategies would be to include the hairtail in the Korean TAC species or to extend the closed fishing season for this species.

• 수산해양기술연구
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• 제55권2호
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• pp.95-104
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• 2019

This study is aimed to take a stock assessment of blackthroat seaperch Doederleinia seaperch regarding the fishing effort of large-powered Danish Seine Fishery and Southwest Sea Danish Seine Fishery. For the assessment, the state-space model was implemented and the standardized catch per unit effort (CPUE) of large powered Danish Seine Fishery and Southwest Sea Danish Seine Fishery which is necessary for the model was estimated with generalized linear model (GLM). The model was adequate for stock assessment because its r-square value was 0.99 and root mean square error (RMSE) value was 0.003. According to the model with 95% confidence interval, maximum sustainable yield (MSY) of Blackthroat seaperch is from 2,634 to 6,765 ton and carrying capacity (K) is between 33,180 and 62,820. Also, the catchability coefficient (q) is between 2.14E-06 and 3.95E-06 and intrinsic growth rate (r) is between 0.31 and 0.72.

• 한국초지조사료학회지
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• 제34권1호
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• pp.52-59
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• 2014

본 실험에서는 2012년부터 2013년까지 월동작물로 재배되는 총체밀에 콩과작물의 혼파재배와 우분시용이 작물의 생산성과 사료가치를 평가함으로써 단위면적당 가축사육능력을 추정하고자 시험은 분할구 집구로 배치한 3반복으로 주구는 총체밀 단파, 총체밀과 헤어리베치 혼파 및 사료용 완두 혼파를, 세구에는 우분 4수준으로(0, 50, 100 및 150 kg N/ha) 시험이 실시되었다. 총체밀의 연간 건물수량은 지역 시험구 비교에서는 경주 시험구가 경산과 영주 시험구보다 높게 나타났으며, 경주 시험구에서 시험구별 단 혼파 비교에서는 헤어리베치 혼파구가 가장 높게 나타났다(p<0.05). 우분 시용수준에 따른 건물은 전 시험구에서 시 용수준이 높을수록 증가하였고 ha당 100, 150 kg 수준에서 유의하게 높았다(p<0.05). 사료작물의 사료가치 평가에서 조단백질 함량은 콩과작물의 월동이 가능한 시험구에서는 총체밀 단파보다는 콩과 혼파구가 높은 경향으로 나타났다(p<0.05). 경산지역에서 총체밀의 가소화양분총량(TDN) 함량은 사료용 완두구가 가장 높았으나(p<0.05), 총체밀 단파구와 유의적 차이는 나지 않았다. 한우 사육능력은 경주 시험구가 ha당 3.83두로 경산 시험구의 ha당 3.11두, 영주 시험구의 ha당 1.35두 보다 높았으며(p<0.05), 총체밀 단파보다는 콩과 작물혼파구가, 혼파구에서는 헤어리 배치가 높게 나타났다(p<0.05). 이상의 결과를 종합해 볼 때, 경북지역에서 사료가치 증진을 위한 콩과 사료작물 혼파는 겨울철 콩과작물의 월동성을 고려해야 하며, 콩과작물의 월동이 어려운 지역에는 우분을 시용하며, 또한 단위면적당 수량과 단백질 함량 등의 사료가치를 높이기 위해서는 우분 수준을 ha당 100~150 kg 시용과 함께 콩과작물을 혼파하는 것이 가축사육 능력 증대를 기대할 수 있으리라 사료된다.

• 한국수산과학회지
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• 제55권2호
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• pp.183-188
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• 2022

It is a difficult task to estimate parameters in even a simple stock assessment model such as a surplus production model, using only data about temporal catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) (or survey index) and fishery yields. Such difficulty is exacerbated when time-varying parameters are treated as random effects (aka state variables). To overcome the difficulty, previous studies incorporated somewhat subjective assumptions (e.g., B₁=K) or informative priors of parameters. A key is how to build an objective joint prior of parameters, reducing subjectivity. Given the limited data on temporal CPUEs and fishery yields from 1999-2020 for common squid Todarodes pacificus, we built a joint prior of only two parameters, intrinsic growth rate (r) and carrying capacity (K), based on the resilience level of the population (Froese et al., 2017), and used a Bayesian state-space production assessment model. We used template model builder (TMB), a R package for implementing the assessment model, and estimating all parameters in the model. The predicted annual biomass was in the range of 0.76×10⁶ to 4.06×10⁶ MT, the estimated MSY was 0.13×10⁶ MT, the estimated r was 0.24, and the estimated K was 2.10×10⁶ MT.

• 수산해양기술연구
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• 제54권1호
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• pp.38-53
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• 2018

The purpose of this study is to estimate potential yield (PY) for Korean west coast fisheries using the holistic production method (HPM). HPM involves the use of surplus production models to apply input data of catch and standardized fishing efforts. HPM compared the estimated parameters of the surplus production from four different models: the Fox model, CYP model, ASPIC model, and maximum entropy model. The PY estimates ranged from 174,232 metric tons (mt) using the CYP model to 238,088 mt using the maximum entropy model. The highest coefficient of determination ($R^2$), the lowest root mean square error (RMSE), and the lowest Theil's U statistic (U) for Korean west coast fisheries were obtained from the maximum entropy model. The maximum entropy model showed relatively better fits of data, indicating that the maximum entropy model is statistically more stable and accurate than other models. The estimate from the maximum entropy model is regarded as a more reasonable estimate of PY. The quality of input data should be improved for the future study of PY to obtain more reliable estimates.

• 수산해양기술연구
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• 제49권1호
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• pp.18-28
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• 2013

It was compared the estimated parameters by the surplus production from three different models, i.e., three types (Schaefer, Gulland, and Schnute) of the traditional surplus production models, a stock production model incorporating covariates (ASPIC) model and a maximum entropy (ME) model. We also evaluated the performance of models in the estimation of their parameters. The maximum sustainable yield (MSY) of small yellow croaker (Pseudosciaena polyactis) in Korean waters ranged from 35,061 metric tons (mt) by Gulland model to 44,844mt by ME model, and fishing effort at MSY ($f_{MSY}$) ranged from 262,188hauls by Schnute model to 355,200hauls by ME model. The lowest root mean square error (RMSE) for small yellow croaker was obtained from the Gulland surplus production model, while the highest RMSE was from Schnute model. However, the highest coefficient of determination ($R^2$) was from the ME model, but the ASPIC model yielded the lowest coefficient. On the other hand, the MSY of Kapenta (Limnothrissa miodon) ranged from 16,880 mt by ASPIC model to 25,373mt by ME model, and $f_{MSY}$, from 94,580hauls by ASPIC model to 225,490hauls by Schnute model. In this case, both the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) and the highest coefficient of determination ($R^2$) were obtained from the ME model, which showed relatively better fits of data to the model, indicating that the ME model is statistically more stable and robust than other models. Moreover, the ME model could provide additional ecologically useful parameters such as, biomass at MSY ($B_{MSY}$), carrying capacity of the population (K), catchability coefficient (q) and the intrinsic rate of population growth (r).

• 한국유기농업학회지
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.451-465
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• 2013

본 실험에서는 2011년부터 2012년까지 월동작물로 재배되는 보리, 호밀, 밀과 트리트레일에 화학비료, 유기질비료 및 가축분뇨의 시용 그리고 콩과작물의 혼파재배가 작물의 생산성과 사료가치를 평가함으로써 토양의 지력향상과 함께 양질의 유기 조사료 확보하여 단위면적당 유기가축사육 능력을 추정하고자 무비구, 화학비료 PK시비구, 화학비료 NPK시비구, 유기질비료 시용구, 우분뇨 시용구, 우분뇨 시용에 헤어리베치 혼파구 및 우분뇨 시용에 forage pea 혼파구 등 7처리 3반복 난괴법으로 배치하여 실험이 실시되었다. 청보리의 연간 건물과 가소화양분총량(TDN) 수량은 화학비료 NPK 시비구가 가장 높았으나(p<0.05), 유기질 비료구, 우분뇨 및 콩과작물 혼파구와 유의적 차이는 나지 않았다. 청보리의 TDN은 우분뇨 시용에 forage pea 혼파구가 가장 높게 나타났다(p<0.05). 청보리를 급여시 한우 암소는 유기질비료, 우분뇨 혹은 우분뇨 시용에 forage pea 혼파구가 연간 ha당 평균 2.8~3.1두를 사육할 수 있다. 호밀의 연간 건물수량은 화학비료 NPK구가 가장 높았으나, 우분뇨구와 유의적 차이가 나지 않았으며, TDN과 RFV는 유기질비료구가 화학비료 NPK구 보다 유의하게 높았다(p<0.05). 유기질비료, 우분뇨 혹은 우분뇨 시용에 콩과를 혼파한 호밀을 급여할 경우 한우 암소는 연간 ha 당 사육두수는 평균 2.8~3.2두 규모의 가축 사육능력이 추정된다. 밀의 연간 건물, 조단백질 및 TDN 수량은 유기질비료, 우분뇨 혹은 우분뇨 시용에 두과작물을 혼파한 구가 ha 당 각각 6.9~7.44, 0.53~0.60 및 4.35~5.04 톤으로 나타나, 밀을 급여할 경우 암소는 연간 ha 당 평균 3.1~3.7두 규모의 사육능력이 추정된다. 트리트케일의 TDN 수량은 화학비료 NPK구, 유기질비료구, 우분뇨구 및 콩과혼파구가 무비구와 화학비료 PK구 보다는 유의하게 높았으며(p<0.05), 조단백질 함량은 forage pea 혼파구가 가장 높았다(p<0.05). 트리트케일을 급여할 경우 유기한우 암소는 연간 ha 당 평균 3.4~3.7두 규모의 사육능력이 추정된다. 이상의 결과를 종합해 볼 때, 건물생산성만을 고려해서 화학비료와 동계사료작물을 단파로 재배하는 것보다 가축의 기호성과 품질의 개선까지 고려하여 액상우분뇨 50% 시용과 함께 콩과작물인 헤어리베치와 forage pea 등을 혼파 하는 것이 단위면적당 수량과 단백질 함량 등의 사료가치를 높이며 유기 가축사육 시에는 단백질공급원으로 이용되는 수입 곡류 등을 대체하는 효과까지도 기대할 수 있으리라 생각된다.

• 수산해양기술연구
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• 제56권4호
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• pp.347-360
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• 2020

In this study, the Bayesian state-space model was used for the stock assessment of the Blackfin flounder. In addition, effective measures for the resource management were presentedwith the analysis on the effectiveness of fisheries management plans. According to the result of the analysis using the Bayesian state-space model, the main biometric value of Blackfin flounder was analyzed as 1,985 tons for maximum sustainable yield (MSY), 23,930 tons for carrying capacity (K), 0.000007765 for catchability coefficient (q) and 0.31 for intrinsic growth (r). Also the evaluation on the biological effect of TAC was done. The result showed that the Blackfin flounder biomass will be kept at 14,637 tons 20 years later given the present TAC volume of 1,761 tons. If the Blackfin flounder TAC volume is set to 1,600 tons, the amount of biomass will increase to 16,252 tons in the future. Lastly, the biological effectiveness of the policy to reduce fishing effort was assessed. The result showed that the Blackfin flounder biomass will be maintained at 13,776 tons if the current fishing efforts (currently hp) level is set and maintained. If the fishing effort is reduced by 20%, it will increase to 17,091 tons in the future. The analysis on the economic effect of TAC showed that NPV will be the lowest at 1,486,410 won in 2038, 20 years after the establishment of 2,500 tons of TAC volume. If the TAC volume is set at 2,000 tons, NPV was estimated to be the highest at 2,206,522,000 won. In addition, the analysis on the economic effect of the policy to reduce the amount of fishing effort found that NPV will be 2,235,592,000 won in 2038, 20 years after maintaining the current level of fishing effort. If the fishing effort is increased by 10%, NPV will be the highest at 2,257,575 won even thoughthe amount of biomass will be reduced.