• Title/Summary/Keyword: Stock Market Network

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Analysis of the Precedence of Stock Price Variables Using Cultural Content Big Data (문화콘텐츠 빅데이터를 이용한 주가 변수 선행성 분석)

  • Ryu, Jae Pil;Lee, Ji Young;Jeong, Jeong Young
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.222-230
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    • 2022
  • Recently, Korea's cultural content industry is developing, and behind the growing recognition around the world is the real-time sharing service of global network users due to the development of science and technology. In particular, in the case of YouTube, its propagation power is fast and powerful in that everyone, not limited users, can become potential video providers. As more than 80% of mobile phone users are using YouTube in Korea, YouTube's information means that psychological factors of users are reflected. For example, information such as the number of video views, likes, and comments of a channel with a specific personality shows a measure of the channel's personality interest. This is highly related to the fact that information such as the frequency of keyword search on portal sites is closely related to the stock market economically and psychologically. Therefore, in this study, YouTube information from a representative entertainment company is collected through a crawling algorithm and analyzed for the causal relationship with major variables related to stock prices. This study is considered meaningful in that it conducted research by combining cultural content, IT, and financial fields in accordance with the era of the fourth industry.

Financial Market Prediction and Improving the Performance Based on Large-scale Exogenous Variables and Deep Neural Networks (대규모 외생 변수 및 Deep Neural Network 기반 금융 시장 예측 및 성능 향상)

  • Cheon, Sung Gil;Lee, Ju Hong;Choi, Bum Ghi;Song, Jae Won
    • Smart Media Journal
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.26-35
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    • 2020
  • Attempts to predict future stock prices have been studied steadily since the past. However, unlike general time-series data, financial time-series data has various obstacles to making predictions such as non-stationarity, long-term dependence, and non-linearity. In addition, variables of a wide range of data have limitations in the selection by humans, and the model should be able to automatically extract variables well. In this paper, we propose a 'sliding time step normalization' method that can normalize non-stationary data and LSTM autoencoder to compress variables from all variables. and 'moving transfer learning', which divides periods and performs transfer learning. In addition, the experiment shows that the performance is superior when using as many variables as possible through the neural network rather than using only 100 major financial variables and by using 'sliding time step normalization' to normalize the non-stationarity of data in all sections, it is shown to be effective in improving performance. 'moving transfer learning' shows that it is effective in improving the performance in long test intervals by evaluating the performance of the model and performing transfer learning in the test interval for each step.

Dynamic forecasts of bankruptcy with Recurrent Neural Network model (RNN(Recurrent Neural Network)을 이용한 기업부도예측모형에서 회계정보의 동적 변화 연구)

  • Kwon, Hyukkun;Lee, Dongkyu;Shin, Minsoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.139-153
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    • 2017
  • Corporate bankruptcy can cause great losses not only to stakeholders but also to many related sectors in society. Through the economic crises, bankruptcy have increased and bankruptcy prediction models have become more and more important. Therefore, corporate bankruptcy has been regarded as one of the major topics of research in business management. Also, many studies in the industry are in progress and important. Previous studies attempted to utilize various methodologies to improve the bankruptcy prediction accuracy and to resolve the overfitting problem, such as Multivariate Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Generalized Linear Model (GLM). These methods are based on statistics. Recently, researchers have used machine learning methodologies such as Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Furthermore, fuzzy theory and genetic algorithms were used. Because of this change, many of bankruptcy models are developed. Also, performance has been improved. In general, the company's financial and accounting information will change over time. Likewise, the market situation also changes, so there are many difficulties in predicting bankruptcy only with information at a certain point in time. However, even though traditional research has problems that don't take into account the time effect, dynamic model has not been studied much. When we ignore the time effect, we get the biased results. So the static model may not be suitable for predicting bankruptcy. Thus, using the dynamic model, there is a possibility that bankruptcy prediction model is improved. In this paper, we propose RNN (Recurrent Neural Network) which is one of the deep learning methodologies. The RNN learns time series data and the performance is known to be good. Prior to experiment, we selected non-financial firms listed on the KOSPI, KOSDAQ and KONEX markets from 2010 to 2016 for the estimation of the bankruptcy prediction model and the comparison of forecasting performance. In order to prevent a mistake of predicting bankruptcy by using the financial information already reflected in the deterioration of the financial condition of the company, the financial information was collected with a lag of two years, and the default period was defined from January to December of the year. Then we defined the bankruptcy. The bankruptcy we defined is the abolition of the listing due to sluggish earnings. We confirmed abolition of the list at KIND that is corporate stock information website. Then we selected variables at previous papers. The first set of variables are Z-score variables. These variables have become traditional variables in predicting bankruptcy. The second set of variables are dynamic variable set. Finally we selected 240 normal companies and 226 bankrupt companies at the first variable set. Likewise, we selected 229 normal companies and 226 bankrupt companies at the second variable set. We created a model that reflects dynamic changes in time-series financial data and by comparing the suggested model with the analysis of existing bankruptcy predictive models, we found that the suggested model could help to improve the accuracy of bankruptcy predictions. We used financial data in KIS Value (Financial database) and selected Multivariate Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Generalized Linear Model called logistic regression (GLM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model as benchmark. The result of the experiment proved that RNN's performance was better than comparative model. The accuracy of RNN was high in both sets of variables and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) value was also high. Also when we saw the hit-ratio table, the ratio of RNNs that predicted a poor company to be bankrupt was higher than that of other comparative models. However the limitation of this paper is that an overfitting problem occurs during RNN learning. But we expect to be able to solve the overfitting problem by selecting more learning data and appropriate variables. From these result, it is expected that this research will contribute to the development of a bankruptcy prediction by proposing a new dynamic model.

A Study on the Critical Success Factors of Social Commerce through the Analysis of the Perception Gap between the Service Providers and the Users: Focused on Ticket Monster in Korea (서비스제공자와 사용자의 인식차이 분석을 통한 소셜커머스 핵심성공요인에 대한 연구: 한국의 티켓몬스터 중심으로)

  • Kim, Il Jung;Lee, Dae Chul;Lim, Gyoo Gun
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.211-232
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    • 2014
  • Recently, there is a growing interest toward social commerce using SNS(Social Networking Service), and the size of its market is also expanding due to popularization of smart phones, tablet PCs and other smart devices. Accordingly, various studies have been attempted but it is shown that most of the previous studies have been conducted from perspectives of the users. The purpose of this study is to derive user-centered CSF(Critical Success Factor) of social commerce from the previous studies and analyze the CSF perception gap between social commerce service providers and users. The CSF perception gap between two groups shows that there is a difference between ideal images the service providers hope for and the actual image the service users have on social commerce companies. This study provides effective improvement directions for social commerce companies by presenting current business problems and its solution plans. For this, This study selected Korea's representative social commerce business Ticket Monster, which is dominant in sales and staff size together with its excellent funding power through M&A by stock exchange with the US social commerce business Living Social with Amazon.com as a shareholder in August, 2011, as a target group of social commerce service provider. we have gathered questionnaires from both service providers and the users from October 22, 2012 until October 31, 2012 to conduct an empirical analysis. We surveyed 160 service providers of Ticket Monster We also surveyed 160 social commerce users who have experienced in using Ticket Monster service. Out of 320 surveys, 20 questionaries which were unfit or undependable were discarded. Consequently the remaining 300(service provider 150, user 150)were used for this empirical study. The statistics were analyzed using SPSS 12.0. Implications of the empirical analysis result of this study are as follows: First of all, There are order differences in the importance of social commerce CSF between two groups. While service providers regard Price Economic as the most important CSF influencing purchasing intention, the users regard 'Trust' as the most important CSF influencing purchasing intention. This means that the service providers have to utilize the unique strong point of social commerce which make the customers be trusted rathe than just focusing on selling product at a discounted price. It means that service Providers need to enhance effective communication skills by using SNS and play a vital role as a trusted adviser who provides curation services and explains the value of products through information filtering. Also, they need to pay attention to preventing consumer damages from deceptive and false advertising. service providers have to create the detailed reward system in case of a consumer damages caused by above problems. It can make strong ties with customers. Second, both service providers and users tend to consider that social commerce CSF influencing purchasing intention are Price Economic, Utility, Trust, and Word of Mouth Effect. Accordingly, it can be learned that users are expecting the benefit from the aspect of prices and economy when using social commerce, and service providers should be able to suggest the individualized discount benefit through diverse methods using social network service. Looking into it from the aspect of usefulness, service providers are required to get users to be cognizant of time-saving, efficiency, and convenience when they are using social commerce. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the usefulness of social commerce through the introduction of a new management strategy, such as intensification of search engine of the Website, facilitation in payment through shopping basket, and package distribution. Trust, as mentioned before, is the most important variable in consumers' mind, so it should definitely be managed for sustainable management. If the trust in social commerce should fall due to consumers' damage case due to false and puffery advertising forgeries, it could have a negative influence on the image of the social commerce industry in general. Instead of advertising with famous celebrities and using a bombastic amount of money on marketing expenses, the social commerce industry should be able to use the word of mouth effect between users by making use of the social network service, the major marketing method of initial social commerce. The word of mouth effect occurring from consumers' spontaneous self-marketer's duty performance can bring not only reduction effect in advertising cost to a service provider but it can also prepare the basis of discounted price suggestion to consumers; in this context, the word of mouth effect should be managed as the CSF of social commerce. Third, Trade safety was not derived as one of the CSF. Recently, with e-commerce like social commerce and Internet shopping increasing in a variety of methods, the importance of trade safety on the Internet also increases, but in this study result, trade safety wasn't evaluated as CSF of social commerce by both groups. This study judges that it's because both service provider groups and user group are perceiving that there is a reliable PG(Payment Gateway) which acts for e-payment of Internet transaction. Accordingly, it is understood that both two groups feel that social commerce can have a corporate identity by website and differentiation in products and services in sales, but don't feel a big difference by business in case of e-payment system. In other words, trade safety should be perceived as natural, basic universal service. Fourth, it's necessary that service providers should intensify the communication with users by making use of social network service which is the major marketing method of social commerce and should be able to use the word of mouth effect between users. The word of mouth effect occurring from consumers' spontaneous self- marketer's duty performance can bring not only reduction effect in advertising cost to a service provider but it can also prepare the basis of discounted price suggestion to consumers. in this context, it is judged that the word of mouth effect should be managed as CSF of social commerce. In this paper, the characteristics of social commerce are limited as five independent variables, however, if an additional study is proceeded with more various independent variables, more in-depth study results will be derived. In addition, this research targets social commerce service providers and the users, however, in the consideration of the fact that social commerce is a two-sided market, drawing CSF through an analysis of perception gap between social commerce service providers and its advertisement clients would be worth to be dealt with in a follow-up study.

Smartphone Security Using Fingerprint Password (다중 지문 시퀀스를 이용한 스마트폰 보안)

  • Bae, Kyoung-Yul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.45-55
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    • 2013
  • Thereby using smartphone and mobile device be more popular the more people utilize mobile device in many area such as education, news, financial. In January, 2007 Apple release i-phone it touch off rapid increasing in user of smartphone and it create new market and these broaden its utilization area. Smartphone use WiFi or 3G mobile radio communication network and it has a feature that can access to internet whenever and anywhere. Also using smartphone application people can search arrival time of public transportation in real time and application is used in mobile banking and stock trading. Computer's function is replaced by smartphone so it involves important user's information such as financial and personal pictures, videos. Present smartphone security systems are not only too simple but the unlocking methods are spreading out covertly. I-phone is secured by using combination of number and character but USA's IT magazine Engadget reveal that it is easily unlocked by using combination with some part of number pad and buttons Android operation system is using pattern system and it is known as using 9 point dot so user can utilize various variable but according to Jonathan smith professor of University of Pennsylvania Android security system is easily unlocked by tracing fingerprint which remains on the smartphone screen. So both of Android and I-phone OS are vulnerable at security threat. Compared with problem of password and pattern finger recognition has advantage in security and possibility of loss. The reason why current using finger recognition smart phone, and device are not so popular is that there are many problem: not providing reasonable price, breaching human rights. In addition, finger recognition sensor is not providing reasonable price to customers but through continuous development of the smartphone and device, it will be more miniaturized and its price will fall. So once utilization of finger recognition is actively used in smartphone and if its utilization area broaden to financial transaction. Utilization of biometrics in smart device will be debated briskly. So in this thesis we will propose fingerprint numbering system which is combined fingerprint and password to fortify existing fingerprint recognition. Consisted by 4 number of password has this kind of problem so we will replace existing 4number password and pattern system and consolidate with fingerprint recognition and password reinforce security. In original fingerprint recognition system there is only 10 numbers of cases but if numbering to fingerprint we can consist of a password as a new method. Using proposed method user enter fingerprint as invested number to the finger. So attacker will have difficulty to collect all kind of fingerprint to forge and infer user's password. After fingerprint numbering, system can use the method of recognization of entering several fingerprint at the same time or enter fingerprint in regular sequence. In this thesis we adapt entering fingerprint in regular sequence and if in this system allow duplication when entering fingerprint. In case of allowing duplication a number of possible combinations is $\sum_{I=1}^{10}\;{_{10}P_i}$ and its total cases of number is 9,864,100. So by this method user retain security the other hand attacker will have a number of difficulties to conjecture and it is needed to obtain user's fingerprint thus this system will enhance user's security. This system is method not accept only one fingerprint but accept multiple finger in regular sequence. In this thesis we introduce the method in the environment of smartphone by using multiple numbered fingerprint enter to authorize user. Present smartphone authorization using pattern and password and fingerprint are exposed to high risk so if proposed system overcome delay time when user enter their finger to recognition device and relate to other biometric method it will have more concrete security. The problem should be solved after this research is reducing fingerprint's numbering time and hardware development should be preceded. If in the future using fingerprint public certification becomes popular. The fingerprint recognition in the smartphone will become important security issue so this thesis will utilize to fortify fingerprint recognition research.