• Title/Summary/Keyword: Stock Market Network

Search Result 75, Processing Time 0.026 seconds

An Empirical Study on Measuring Systemic Risk Based on Information Flows using Variance Decomposition and DebtRank (분산분해와 뎁트랭크를 활용한 정보흐름에 기반으로 시스템 위험 측정에 관한 실증연구)

  • Park, A Young;Kim, Ho-Yong;OH, Gabjin
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
    • /
    • v.40 no.4
    • /
    • pp.35-48
    • /
    • 2015
  • We analyze the systemic risk based on the information flows using the variance decomposition, DebtRank methods, and the Industry Sector Indices during 2001. 01 to 2015. 08. Using the KOSPI stock market as our setting, we find that (i) the systemic risk calculated by information flows of variance decompositions method shows strong positive relations with the market volatility, (ii) the magnitude of systemic risk measured from the information flows network by DebtRank method increases after the subprime financial crisis.

The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.25 no.3
    • /
    • pp.239-251
    • /
    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.

A Time Series Graph based Convolutional Neural Network Model for Effective Input Variable Pattern Learning : Application to the Prediction of Stock Market (효과적인 입력변수 패턴 학습을 위한 시계열 그래프 기반 합성곱 신경망 모형: 주식시장 예측에의 응용)

  • Lee, Mo-Se;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.24 no.1
    • /
    • pp.167-181
    • /
    • 2018
  • Over the past decade, deep learning has been in spotlight among various machine learning algorithms. In particular, CNN(Convolutional Neural Network), which is known as the effective solution for recognizing and classifying images or voices, has been popularly applied to classification and prediction problems. In this study, we investigate the way to apply CNN in business problem solving. Specifically, this study propose to apply CNN to stock market prediction, one of the most challenging tasks in the machine learning research. As mentioned, CNN has strength in interpreting images. Thus, the model proposed in this study adopts CNN as the binary classifier that predicts stock market direction (upward or downward) by using time series graphs as its inputs. That is, our proposal is to build a machine learning algorithm that mimics an experts called 'technical analysts' who examine the graph of past price movement, and predict future financial price movements. Our proposed model named 'CNN-FG(Convolutional Neural Network using Fluctuation Graph)' consists of five steps. In the first step, it divides the dataset into the intervals of 5 days. And then, it creates time series graphs for the divided dataset in step 2. The size of the image in which the graph is drawn is $40(pixels){\times}40(pixels)$, and the graph of each independent variable was drawn using different colors. In step 3, the model converts the images into the matrices. Each image is converted into the combination of three matrices in order to express the value of the color using R(red), G(green), and B(blue) scale. In the next step, it splits the dataset of the graph images into training and validation datasets. We used 80% of the total dataset as the training dataset, and the remaining 20% as the validation dataset. And then, CNN classifiers are trained using the images of training dataset in the final step. Regarding the parameters of CNN-FG, we adopted two convolution filters ($5{\times}5{\times}6$ and $5{\times}5{\times}9$) in the convolution layer. In the pooling layer, $2{\times}2$ max pooling filter was used. The numbers of the nodes in two hidden layers were set to, respectively, 900 and 32, and the number of the nodes in the output layer was set to 2(one is for the prediction of upward trend, and the other one is for downward trend). Activation functions for the convolution layer and the hidden layer were set to ReLU(Rectified Linear Unit), and one for the output layer set to Softmax function. To validate our model - CNN-FG, we applied it to the prediction of KOSPI200 for 2,026 days in eight years (from 2009 to 2016). To match the proportions of the two groups in the independent variable (i.e. tomorrow's stock market movement), we selected 1,950 samples by applying random sampling. Finally, we built the training dataset using 80% of the total dataset (1,560 samples), and the validation dataset using 20% (390 samples). The dependent variables of the experimental dataset included twelve technical indicators popularly been used in the previous studies. They include Stochastic %K, Stochastic %D, Momentum, ROC(rate of change), LW %R(Larry William's %R), A/D oscillator(accumulation/distribution oscillator), OSCP(price oscillator), CCI(commodity channel index), and so on. To confirm the superiority of CNN-FG, we compared its prediction accuracy with the ones of other classification models. Experimental results showed that CNN-FG outperforms LOGIT(logistic regression), ANN(artificial neural network), and SVM(support vector machine) with the statistical significance. These empirical results imply that converting time series business data into graphs and building CNN-based classification models using these graphs can be effective from the perspective of prediction accuracy. Thus, this paper sheds a light on how to apply deep learning techniques to the domain of business problem solving.

TIME-VARIANT OUTLIER DETECTION METHOD ON GEOSENSOR NETWORKS

  • Kim, Dong-Phil;I, Gyeong-Min;Lee, Dong-Gyu;Ryu, Keun-Ho
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
    • /
    • 2008.10a
    • /
    • pp.410-413
    • /
    • 2008
  • Existing Outlier detections have been widely studied in geosensor networks. Recently, machine learning and data mining have been applied the outlier detection method to build a model that distinguishes outliers based on anchored criterion. However, it is difficult for the existing methods to detect outliers against incoming time-variant data, because outlier detection needs to monitor incoming data and classify irregular attacks. Therefore, in order to solve the problem, we propose a time-variant outlier detection using 2-dimensional grid method based on unanchored criterion. In the paper, outliers using geosensor data was performed to classify efficiently. The proposed method can be utilized applications such as network intrusion detection, stock market analysis, and error data detection in bank account.

  • PDF

The Effects of Information Transfer of Personal Information Security Breaches (개인정보 유출의 정보전이 효과)

  • Park, Sang-Soo;Lee, Hyun-Chul
    • The Journal of Information Systems
    • /
    • v.27 no.1
    • /
    • pp.193-224
    • /
    • 2018
  • Purpose Targeting Korean companies listed on Korean securities markets (i.e., KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets), this study aims to shed lights the effects of personal information security breaches on stock prices of information security companies. Interestingly, this study is, to the best of our knowledge, the first to examine the information transfer effect on personal information security breaches of companies. Design / Methodology /Approach To examine the information transfer effect of personal information security breaches, our study employs the event study commonly used in financial studies. To this end, we investigate a variety of events of personal information security breaches of companies listed on the KOPSI stock market and the KOSDAQ market. We collect the total samples of one hundred and twelve with forty seven of events of personal information security breaches by thirty companies and sixty five of information security companies. Findings The principal findings from the empirical study are as follows. First, for companies of personal information security breaches, our event study presents the significantly negative AAR (averaged abnormal return) value on the event day at the 5 % level and the highly significant negative CAAR(cumulative averaged abnormal return) value on the event day and the day after the event day at the 1 % level. The results suggest that personal information breaches significantly contribute to an decrease in value of the information breached companies. The cross sectional regressions in this study estimate the significantly negative coefficient for the ME/BE variable, the proxy for a growth opportunity at the 5 % level. This suggests a reverse relation between the growth opportunity of companies and their value. As for the various samples of the information security companies categorized by physical security, network and system security, security application software, code authentication, system integration, we find the significantly positive AAR on the day after the event day at the 5% level, only for the network and system security-companies. This addresses that the information transfer effect followed by personal information breaches is uniquely observable for companies categorized into network and system companies. The regressions for the network and system companies estimate the significantly positive coefficient for the NS dummy variable (i.e., the dummy of the network and system security companies) at the standard level. This allows us to identify appropriate times needed to make the information transfer effect realized from personal information breached companies to information security companies.

The prediction of the stock price movement after IPO using machine learning and text analysis based on TF-IDF (증권신고서의 TF-IDF 텍스트 분석과 기계학습을 이용한 공모주의 상장 이후 주가 등락 예측)

  • Yang, Suyeon;Lee, Chaerok;Won, Jonggwan;Hong, Taeho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.28 no.2
    • /
    • pp.237-262
    • /
    • 2022
  • There has been a growing interest in IPOs (Initial Public Offerings) due to the profitable returns that IPO stocks can offer to investors. However, IPOs can be speculative investments that may involve substantial risk as well because shares tend to be volatile, and the supply of IPO shares is often highly limited. Therefore, it is crucially important that IPO investors are well informed of the issuing firms and the market before deciding whether to invest or not. Unlike institutional investors, individual investors are at a disadvantage since there are few opportunities for individuals to obtain information on the IPOs. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to provide individual investors with the information they may consider when making an IPO investment decision. This study presents a model that uses machine learning and text analysis to predict whether an IPO stock price would move up or down after the first 5 trading days. Our sample includes 691 Korean IPOs from June 2009 to December 2020. The input variables for the prediction are three tone variables created from IPO prospectuses and quantitative variables that are either firm-specific, issue-specific, or market-specific. The three prospectus tone variables indicate the percentage of positive, neutral, and negative sentences in a prospectus, respectively. We considered only the sentences in the Risk Factors section of a prospectus for the tone analysis in this study. All sentences were classified into 'positive', 'neutral', and 'negative' via text analysis using TF-IDF (Term Frequency - Inverse Document Frequency). Measuring the tone of each sentence was conducted by machine learning instead of a lexicon-based approach due to the lack of sentiment dictionaries suitable for Korean text analysis in the context of finance. For this reason, the training set was created by randomly selecting 10% of the sentences from each prospectus, and the sentence classification task on the training set was performed after reading each sentence in person. Then, based on the training set, a Support Vector Machine model was utilized to predict the tone of sentences in the test set. Finally, the machine learning model calculated the percentages of positive, neutral, and negative sentences in each prospectus. To predict the price movement of an IPO stock, four different machine learning techniques were applied: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Artificial Neural Network. According to the results, models that use quantitative variables using technical analysis and prospectus tone variables together show higher accuracy than models that use only quantitative variables. More specifically, the prediction accuracy was improved by 1.45% points in the Random Forest model, 4.34% points in the Artificial Neural Network model, and 5.07% points in the Support Vector Machine model. After testing the performance of these machine learning techniques, the Artificial Neural Network model using both quantitative variables and prospectus tone variables was the model with the highest prediction accuracy rate, which was 61.59%. The results indicate that the tone of a prospectus is a significant factor in predicting the price movement of an IPO stock. In addition, the McNemar test was used to verify the statistically significant difference between the models. The model using only quantitative variables and the model using both the quantitative variables and the prospectus tone variables were compared, and it was confirmed that the predictive performance improved significantly at a 1% significance level.

Performance Comparison of Reinforcement Learning Algorithms for Futures Scalping (해외선물 스캘핑을 위한 강화학습 알고리즘의 성능비교)

  • Jung, Deuk-Kyo;Lee, Se-Hun;Kang, Jae-Mo
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
    • /
    • v.8 no.5
    • /
    • pp.697-703
    • /
    • 2022
  • Due to the recent economic downturn caused by Covid-19 and the unstable international situation, many investors are choosing the derivatives market as a means of investment. However, the derivatives market has a greater risk than the stock market, and research on the market of market participants is insufficient. Recently, with the development of artificial intelligence, machine learning has been widely used in the derivatives market. In this paper, reinforcement learning, one of the machine learning techniques, is applied to analyze the scalping technique that trades futures in minutes. The data set consists of 21 attributes using the closing price, moving average line, and Bollinger band indicators of 1 minute and 3 minute data for 6 months by selecting 4 products among futures products traded at trading firm. In the experiment, DNN artificial neural network model and three reinforcement learning algorithms, namely, DQN (Deep Q-Network), A2C (Advantage Actor Critic), and A3C (Asynchronous A2C) were used, and they were trained and verified through learning data set and test data set. For scalping, the agent chooses one of the actions of buying and selling, and the ratio of the portfolio value according to the action result is rewarded. Experiment results show that the energy sector products such as Heating Oil and Crude Oil yield relatively high cumulative returns compared to the index sector products such as Mini Russell 2000 and Hang Seng Index.

System Trading using Case-based Reasoning based on Absolute Similarity Threshold and Genetic Algorithm (절대 유사 임계값 기반 사례기반추론과 유전자 알고리즘을 활용한 시스템 트레이딩)

  • Han, Hyun-Woong;Ahn, Hyun-Chul
    • The Journal of Information Systems
    • /
    • v.26 no.3
    • /
    • pp.63-90
    • /
    • 2017
  • Purpose This study proposes a novel system trading model using case-based reasoning (CBR) based on absolute similarity threshold. The proposed model is designed to optimize the absolute similarity threshold, feature selection, and instance selection of CBR by using genetic algorithm (GA). With these mechanisms, it enables us to yield higher returns from stock market trading. Design/Methodology/Approach The proposed CBR model uses the absolute similarity threshold varying from 0 to 1, which serves as a criterion for selecting appropriate neighbors in the nearest neighbor (NN) algorithm. Since it determines the nearest neighbors on an absolute basis, it fails to select the appropriate neighbors from time to time. In system trading, it is interpreted as the signal of 'hold'. That is, the system trading model proposed in this study makes trading decisions such as 'buy' or 'sell' only if the model produces a clear signal for stock market prediction. Also, in order to improve the prediction accuracy and the rate of return, the proposed model adopts optimal feature selection and instance selection, which are known to be very effective in enhancing the performance of CBR. To validate the usefulness of the proposed model, we applied it to the index trading of KOSPI200 from 2009 to 2016. Findings Experimental results showed that the proposed model with optimal feature or instance selection could yield higher returns compared to the benchmark as well as the various comparison models (including logistic regression, multiple discriminant analysis, artificial neural network, support vector machine, and traditional CBR). In particular, the proposed model with optimal instance selection showed the best rate of return among all the models. This implies that the application of CBR with the absolute similarity threshold as well as the optimal instance selection may be effective in system trading from the perspective of returns.

Trading Strategies Using Reinforcement Learning (강화학습을 이용한 트레이딩 전략)

  • Cho, Hyunmin;Shin, Hyun Joon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.22 no.1
    • /
    • pp.123-130
    • /
    • 2021
  • With the recent developments in computer technology, there has been an increasing interest in the field of machine learning. This also has led to a significant increase in real business cases of machine learning theory in various sectors. In finance, it has been a major challenge to predict the future value of financial products. Since the 1980s, the finance industry has relied on technical and fundamental analysis for this prediction. For future value prediction models using machine learning, model design is of paramount importance to respond to market variables. Therefore, this paper quantitatively predicts the stock price movements of individual stocks listed on the KOSPI market using machine learning techniques; specifically, the reinforcement learning model. The DQN and A2C algorithms proposed by Google Deep Mind in 2013 are used for the reinforcement learning and they are applied to the stock trading strategies. In addition, through experiments, an input value to increase the cumulative profit is selected and its superiority is verified by comparison with comparative algorithms.

The Study of Comparing Korean Consumers' Attitudes Toward Spotify and MelOn: Using Semantic Network Analysis

  • Namjae Cho;Bao Chen Liu;Giseob Yu
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
    • /
    • v.30 no.5
    • /
    • pp.1-19
    • /
    • 2023
  • This study examines Korean users' attitudes and emotions toward Melon and Spotify, which lead the music streaming market. We used Text Mining, Semantic Network Analysis, TF-IDF, Centrality, CONCOR, and Word2Vec analysis. As a result of the study, MelOn was used in a user's daily life. Based on Melon's advantages of providing various contents, the advantage is judged to have considerable competitiveness beyond the limits of the streaming app. However, the MelOn users had negative emotions such as anger, repulsion, and pressure. On the contrary, in the case of Spotify, users were highly interested in the music content. In particular, interest in foreign music was high, and users were also interested in stock investment. In addition, positive emotions such as interest and pleasure were higher than MelOn users, which could be interpreted as providing attractive services to Korean users. While previous studies have mainly focused on technical or personal factors, this study focuses on consumer reactions (online reviews) according to corporate strategies, and this point is the differentiation from others.