• Title/Summary/Keyword: Stochastic Effects

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Measuring Unemployment Durations of Different Types of Workers (실업지속기간의 측정모형)

  • Choi, Chang-Kon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.1603-1608
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    • 2012
  • This paper aims to build a model of unemployment duration, in which each type of unemployment duration can be defined as a function of other exogenous variables. Recently, the so-called mismatch in the labor market has become a big issue in most countries. It is very obvious that 'mismatch' is deeply related to the long duration of unemployment status. Two problems may be head and tail of the same coin. Employing a simple analysis of Markov stochastic process, the model of unemployment duration developed here is useful for seeing the effects of shocks on unemployment duration. The model allows us to distinguish the determinants of different kinds of unemployment and to identify the nature of unemployment duration.

Non-linear rheology of tension structural element under single and variable loading history Part II: Creep of steel rope - examples and parametrical study

  • Kmet, S.;Holickova, L.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.591-607
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    • 2004
  • The substance of the use of the derived non-linear creep constitutive equations under variable stress levels (see first part of the paper, Kmet 2004) is explained and the strategy of their application is outlined using the results of one-step creep tests of the steel spiral strand rope as an example. In order to investigate the creep strain increments of cables an experimental set-up was originally designed and a series of tests were carried out. Attention is turned to the individual main steps in the production and application procedure, i.e., to the one-step creep tests, definition of loading history, determination of the kernel functions, selection and definition of constitutive equation and to the comparison of the resulting values considering the product and the additive forms of the approximation of the kernel functions. To this purpose, the parametrical study is performed and the results are presented. The constitutive equations of non-linear creep of cable under variable stress history offer a strong tool for the real simulation of stochastic variable load history and prediction of realistic time-dependent response (current deflection and stress configuration) of structures with cable elements. By means of suitable stress combination and its gradual repeating various loads and times effects can be modelled.

The self induced secular evolution of gravitating systems.

  • Pichon, Christophe
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.37.1-37.1
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    • 2017
  • Since the seminal work of Perrin, physicists have understood in the context of kinetic theory how ink slowly diffuses in a glass of water. The fluctuations of the stochastic forces acting on water molecules drive the diffusion of the ink in the fluid. This is the archetype of a process described by the so-called fluctuation-dissipation theorem, which universally relates the rate of diffusion to the power spectrum of the fluctuating forces. For stars in galaxies, a similar process occurs but with two significant differences, due to the long-range nature of the gravitational interaction: (i) for the diffusion to be effective, stars need to resonate, i.e. present commensurable frequencies, otherwise they only follow the orbit imposed by their mean field; (ii) the amplitudes of the induced fluctuating forces are significantly boosted by collective effects, i.e. by the fact that, because of self-gravity, each star generates a wake in its neighbours. In the expanding universe, an overdense perturbation passing a critical threshold will collapse onto itself and, through violent relaxation and mergers, rapidly converge towards a stationary, phase-mixed and highly symmetric state, with a partially frozen orbital structure. The object is then locked in a quasi-stationary state imposed by its mean gravitational field. Of particular interests are strongly responsive colder systems which, given time and kicks, find the opportunity to significantly reshuffle their orbital structure towards more likely configurations. This presentation aims to explain this long-term reshuffling called gravity-driven secular evolution on cosmic timescales, described by extended kinetic theory. I will illustrate this with radial migration, disc thickening and the stellar cluster in the galactic centre.

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A Study on the Robust Optimal Supporting Positions of TFT-LCD Glass Panel (TFT-LCD 용 유리기판의 강건 최적 지지 위치의 선정에 관한 연구)

  • Huh Jae-Sung;Jung Byung-Chang;Lee Tae-Yoon;Kwak Byung-Man
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.30 no.8 s.251
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    • pp.1001-1007
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    • 2006
  • In this paper we present robust optimal supporting positions for large glass panels used for TFT-LCD monitors when they are stored in a cassette during manufacturing process. The criterion taken is to minimize their maximum deflection. Since they are supported by some supports and have large deformations, contact analysis with a geometrically nonlinear effect is necessary. In addition, the center of a panel can not be positioned exactly as intended and should be considered as uncertainties. To take into account of these effects, the mean and the standard deviation of system response functions, particularly the deflection of the panels, need be calculated. A function approximation moment method (FAMM) is utilized to estimate them. It is a special type of response surface methodology for structural reliability analysis and can be efficiently used to estimate the two stochastic properties, that is, the system performance and the perturbations caused by uncertainties. For a design purpose, they are to be minimized simultaneously by some optimization algorithm to obtain robust optimal supporting positions.

Probabilistic structural damage detection approaches based on structural dynamic response moments

  • Lei, Ying;Yang, Ning;Xia, Dandan
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.207-217
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    • 2017
  • Because of the inevitable uncertainties such as structural parameters, external excitations and measurement noises, the effects of uncertainties should be taken into consideration in structural damage detection. In this paper, two probabilistic structural damage detection approaches are proposed to account for the underlying uncertainties in structural parameters and external excitation. The first approach adopts the statistical moment-based structural damage detection (SMBDD) algorithm together with the sensitivity analysis of the damage vector to the uncertain parameters. The approach takes the advantage of the strength SMBDD, so it is robust to measurement noise. However, it requests the number of measured responses is not less than that of unknown structural parameters. To reduce the number of measurements requested by the SMBDD algorithm, another probabilistic structural damage detection approach is proposed. It is based on the integration of structural damage detection using temporal moments in each time segment of measured response time history with the sensitivity analysis of the damage vector to the uncertain parameters. In both approaches, probability distribution of damage vector is estimated from those of uncertain parameters based on stochastic finite element model updating and probabilistic propagation. By comparing the two probability distribution characteristics for the undamaged and damaged models, probability of damage existence and damage extent at structural element level can be detected. Some numerical examples are used to demonstrate the performances of the two proposed approaches, respectively.

Evaluation of the Charging effects of Plug-in Electrical Vehicles on Power Systems, taking Into account Optimal Charging Scenarios (전기자동차의 충전부하 모델링 및 충전 시나리오에 따른 전력계통 평가)

  • Moon, Sang-Keun;Gwak, Hyeong-Geun;Kim, Jin-O
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.61 no.6
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    • pp.783-790
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    • 2012
  • Electric Vehicles(EVs) and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles(PHEVs) which have the grid connection capability, represent an important power system issue of charging demands. Analyzing impacts EVs charging demands of the power system such as increased peak demands, developed by means of modeling a stochastic distribution of charging and a demand dispatch calculation. Optimization processes proposed to determine optimal demand distribution portions so that charging costs and demand can possibly be managed. In order to solve the problems due to increasing charging demand at the peak time, alternative electricity rate such as Time-of-Use(TOU) rate has been in effect since last year. The TOU rate would in practice change the tendencies of charging time at the peak time. Nevertheless, since it focus only minimizing costs of charging from owners of the EVs, loads would be concentrated at times which have a lowest charging rate and would form a new peak load. The purpose of this paper is that to suggest a scenario of load leveling for a power system operator side. In case study results, the vehicles as regular load with time constraints, battery charging patterns and changed daily demand in the charging areas are investigated and optimization results are analyzed regarding cost and operation aspects by determining optimal demand distribution portions.

Full-scale measurements of wind effects and modal parameter identification of Yingxian wooden tower

  • Chen, Bo;Yang, Qingshan;Wang, Ke;Wang, Linan
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.609-627
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    • 2013
  • The Yingxian wooden tower in China is currently the tallest wooden tower in the world. It was built in 1056 AD and is 65.86 m high. Field measurements of wind speed and wind-induced response of this tower are conducted. The wind characteristics, including the average wind speed, wind direction, turbulence intensity, gust factor, turbulence integral length scale and velocity spectrum are investigated. The power spectral density and the root-mean-square wind-induced acceleration are analyzed. The structural modal parameters of this tower are identified with two different methods, including the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) combined with the Random Decrement Technique (RDT) and Hilbert transform technique, and the stochastic subspace identification (SSI) method. Results show that strong wind is coming predominantly from the West-South of the tower which is in the same direction as the inclination of the structure. The Von Karman spectrum can describe the spectrum of wind speed well. Wind-induced torsional vibration obviously occurs in this tower. The natural frequencies identified by EMD, RDT and Hilbert Transform are close to those identified by SSI method, but there is obvious difference between the identified damping ratios for the first two modes.

Catastrophe analysis of active-passive mechanisms for shallow tunnels with settlement

  • Yang, X.L.;Wang, H.Y.
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.621-630
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    • 2018
  • In the note a comprehensive and optimal passive-active mode for describing the limit failure of circular shallow tunnel with settlement is put forward to predict the catastrophic stability during the geotechnical construction. Since the surrounding soil mass around tunnel roof is not homogeneous, with tools of variation calculus, several different curve functions which depict several failure shapes in different soil layers are obtained using virtual work formulae. By making reference to the simple-form of Power-law failure criteria based on numerous experiments, a numerical procedure with consideration of combination of upper bound theorem and stochastic medium theory is applied to the optimal analysis of shallow-buried tunnel failure. With help of functional catastrophe theory, this work presented a more accurate and optimal failure profile compared with previous work. Lastly the note discusses different effects of parameters in new yield rule and soil mechanical coefficients on failure mechanisms. The scope of failure block becomes smaller with increase of the parameter A and the range of failure soil mass tends to decrease with decrease of unit weight of the soil and tunnel radius, which verifies the geomechanics and practical case in engineering.

Stochastic characteristics of reinforcement corrosion in concrete beams under sustained loads

  • Huang, Le;Jin, Xianyu;Fu, Chuanqing;Ye, Hailong;Dong, Xiaoyu
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.447-460
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    • 2020
  • This paper deals with the characteristics of reinforcement corrosion in concrete beams under the influence of sustained loads. The evolution and distribution laws of the reinforcement corrosion were measured periodically over time. The results show that sustained load exhibits a pronounced exacerbating effect on the reinforcement corrosion, and enlarges the nonuniformity level of corrosion as the load level increases. Accompanied with the continuous formation of the rust, the corrosion rate was also observed to be highly nonlinear and time-dependent. Moreover, to visually and quantitatively analyze the distribution of reinforcement corrosion, the 3D scanning technology combined with the probability statistics analysis was adopted, and the observed nonuniformity can be well described by the Gumbel distribution. Finally, an approach based on the three-phase spherical model was proposed to estimate the reinforcement corrosion, taking account of the effects of sustained load on the changes of concrete porosity and oxygen diffusivity.

Three-dimensional Rarefied Flows in Rotating Helical Channels (헬리컬 채널내부의 3차원 희박기체유동)

  • Hwang, Y.K.;Heo, J.S.
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2000.04b
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    • pp.625-630
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    • 2000
  • Numerical and experimental investigations are peformed for the rarefied gas flows in pumping channels of a helical-type drag pump. Modern turbomolecular pumps include a drag stage in the discharge side, operating roughly in $10^{-2}{\sim}10Torr$. The flow occurring in the pumping channel develops from the molecular transition to slip flow traveling downstream. Two different numerical methods are used in this analysis: the first one is a continuum approach in solving the Navier-Stokes equations with slip boundary conditions, and the second one is a stochastic particle approach through the use of the direct simulation Monte Carlo(DSMC) method. The flow in a pumping channel is three-dimensional(3D), and the main difficulty in modeling a 3D case comes from the rotating frame of reference. Thus, trajectories of particles are no longer straight lines. In the Present DSMC method, trajectories of particles are calculated by integrating a system of differential equations including the Coriolis and centrifugal forces. Our study is the first instance to analyze the rarefied gas flows in rotating frame in the presence of noninertial effects.

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