• Title/Summary/Keyword: Statistical predictions

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A Fast 4X4 Intra Prediction Method using Motion Vector Information and Statistical Mode Correlation between 16X16 and 4X4 Intra Prediction In H.264|MPEG-4 AVC (H.264|MPEG-4 AVC 비디오 부호화에서 움직임 벡터 정보와 16~16 및 4X4 화면 내 예측 최종 모드간 통계적 연관성을 이용한 화면 간 프레임에서의 4X4 화면 내 예측 고속화 방법)

  • Na, Tae-Young;Jung, Yun-Sik;Kim, Mun-Churl;Hahm, Sang-Jin;Park, Chang-Seob;Park, Keun-Soo
    • Journal of Broadcast Engineering
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.200-213
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    • 2008
  • H.264| MPEG-4 AVC is a new video codingstandard defined by JVT (Joint Video Team) which consists of ITU-T and ISO/IEC. Many techniques are adopted fur the compression efficiency: Especially, an intra prediction in an inter frame is one example but it leads to excessive amount of encoding time due to the decision of a candidate mode and a RDcost calculation. For this reason, a fast determination of the best intra prediction mode is the main issue for saving the encoding time. In this paper, by using the result of statistical relation between intra $16{\times}16$ and $4{\times}4$ intra predictions, the number of candidate modes for $4{\times}4$ intra prediction is reduced. Firstly, utilizing motion vector obtained after inter prediction, prediction of a block mode for each macroblock is made. If an intra prediction is needed, the correlation table between $16{\times}16$ and $4{\times}4$ intra predicted modes is created using the probability during each I frame-coding process. Secondly, using this result, the candidate modes for a $4{\times}4$ intra prediction that reaches a predefined specific probability value are only considered in the same GOP For the experiments, JM11.0, the reference software of H.264|MPEG-4 AVC is used and the experimental results show that the encoding time could be reduced by 51.24% in maximum with negligible amounts of PSNR drop and bitrate increase.

The Intelligent Determination Model of Audience Emotion for Implementing Personalized Exhibition (개인화 전시 서비스 구현을 위한 지능형 관객 감정 판단 모형)

  • Jung, Min-Kyu;Kim, Jae-Kyeong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.39-57
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    • 2012
  • Recently, due to the introduction of high-tech equipment in interactive exhibits, many people's attention has been concentrated on Interactive exhibits that can double the exhibition effect through the interaction with the audience. In addition, it is also possible to measure a variety of audience reaction in the interactive exhibition. Among various audience reactions, this research uses the change of the facial features that can be collected in an interactive exhibition space. This research develops an artificial neural network-based prediction model to predict the response of the audience by measuring the change of the facial features when the audience is given stimulation from the non-excited state. To present the emotion state of the audience, this research uses a Valence-Arousal model. So, this research suggests an overall framework composed of the following six steps. The first step is a step of collecting data for modeling. The data was collected from people participated in the 2012 Seoul DMC Culture Open, and the collected data was used for the experiments. The second step extracts 64 facial features from the collected data and compensates the facial feature values. The third step generates independent and dependent variables of an artificial neural network model. The fourth step extracts the independent variable that affects the dependent variable using the statistical technique. The fifth step builds an artificial neural network model and performs a learning process using train set and test set. Finally the last sixth step is to validate the prediction performance of artificial neural network model using the validation data set. The proposed model is compared with statistical predictive model to see whether it had better performance or not. As a result, although the data set in this experiment had much noise, the proposed model showed better results when the model was compared with multiple regression analysis model. If the prediction model of audience reaction was used in the real exhibition, it will be able to provide countermeasures and services appropriate to the audience's reaction viewing the exhibits. Specifically, if the arousal of audience about Exhibits is low, Action to increase arousal of the audience will be taken. For instance, we recommend the audience another preferred contents or using a light or sound to focus on these exhibits. In other words, when planning future exhibitions, planning the exhibition to satisfy various audience preferences would be possible. And it is expected to foster a personalized environment to concentrate on the exhibits. But, the proposed model in this research still shows the low prediction accuracy. The cause is in some parts as follows : First, the data covers diverse visitors of real exhibitions, so it was difficult to control the optimized experimental environment. So, the collected data has much noise, and it would results a lower accuracy. In further research, the data collection will be conducted in a more optimized experimental environment. The further research to increase the accuracy of the predictions of the model will be conducted. Second, using changes of facial expression only is thought to be not enough to extract audience emotions. If facial expression is combined with other responses, such as the sound, audience behavior, it would result a better result.

A study on the Degradation and By-products Formation of NDMA by the Photolysis with UV: Setup of Reaction Models and Assessment of Decomposition Characteristics by the Statistical Design of Experiment (DOE) based on the Box-Behnken Technique (UV 공정을 이용한 N-Nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA) 광분해 및 부산물 생성에 관한 연구: 박스-벤켄법 실험계획법을 이용한 통계학적 분해특성평가 및 반응모델 수립)

  • Chang, Soon-Woong;Lee, Si-Jin;Cho, Il-Hyoung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.33-46
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    • 2010
  • We investigated and estimated at the characteristics of decomposition and by-products of N-Nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA) using a design of experiment (DOE) based on the Box-Behken design in an UV process, and also the main factors (variables) with UV intensity($X_2$) (range: $1.5{\sim}4.5\;mW/cm^2$), NDMA concentration ($X_2$) (range: 100~300 uM) and pH ($X_2$) (rang: 3~9) which consisted of 3 levels in each factor and 4 responses ($Y_1$ (% of NDMA removal), $Y_2$ (dimethylamine (DMA) reformation (uM)), $Y_3$ (dimethylformamide (DMF) reformation (uM), $Y_4$ ($NO_2$-N reformation (uM)) were set up to estimate the prediction model and the optimization conditions. The results of prediction model and optimization point using the canonical analysis in order to obtain the optimal operation conditions were $Y_1$ [% of NDMA removal] = $117+21X_1-0.3X_2-17.2X_3+{2.43X_1}^2+{0.001X_2}^2+{3.2X_3}^2-0.08X_1X_2-1.6X_1X_3-0.05X_2X_3$ ($R^2$= 96%, Adjusted $R^2$ = 88%) and 99.3% ($X_1:\;4.5\;mW/cm^2$, $X_2:\;190\;uM$, $X_3:\;3.2$), $Y_2$ [DMA conc] = $-101+18.5X_1+0.4X_2+21X_3-{3.3X_1}^2-{0.01X_2}^2-{1.5X_3}^2-0.01X_1X_2+0.07X_1X_3-0.01X_2X_3$ ($R^2$= 99.4%, 수정 $R^2$ = 95.7%) and 35.2 uM ($X_1$: 3 $mW/cm^2$, $X_2$: 220 uM, $X_3$: 6.3), $Y_3$ [DMF conc] = $-6.2+0.2X_1+0.02X_2+2X_3-0.26X_1^2-0.01X_2^2-0.2X_3^2-0.004X_1X_2+0.1X_1X_3-0.02X_2X_3$ ($R^2$= 98%, Adjusted $R^2$ = 94.4%) and 3.7 uM ($X_1:\;4.5\;$mW/cm^2$, $X_2:\;290\;uM$, $X_3:\;6.2$) and $Y_4$ [$NO_2$-N conc] = $-25+12.2X_1+0.15X_2+7.8X_3+{1.1X_1}^2+{0.001X_2}^2-{0.34X_3}^2+0.01X_1X_2+0.08X_1X_3-3.4X_2X_3$ ($R^2$= 98.5%, Adjusted $R^2$ = 95.7%) and 74.5 uM ($X_1:\;4.5\;mW/cm^2$, $X_2:\;220\;uM$, $X_3:\;3.1$). This study has demonstrated that the response surface methodology and the Box-Behnken statistical experiment design can provide statistically reliable results for decomposition and by-products of NDMA by the UV photolysis and also for determination of optimum conditions. Predictions obtained from the response functions were in good agreement with the experimental results indicating the reliability of the methodology used.

A Study on Characteristics of Lincomycin Degradation by Optimized TiO2/HAP/Ge Composite using Mixture Analysis (혼합물분석을 통해 최적화된 TiO2/HAP/Ge 촉매를 이용한 Lincomycin 제거특성 연구)

  • Kim, Dongwoo;Chang, Soonwoong
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.63-68
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    • 2014
  • In this study, it was found that determined the photocatalytic degradation of antibiotics (lincomycin, LM) with various catalyst composite of titanium dioxide ($TiO_2$), hydroxyapatite (HAP) and germanium (Ge) under UV-A irradiation. At first, various type of complex catalysts were investigated to compare the enhanced photocatalytic potential. It was observed that in order to obtain the removal efficiencies were $TiO_2/HAP/Ge$ > $TiO_2/Ge$ > $TiO_2/HAP$. The composition of $TiO_2/HAP/Ge$ using a statistical approach based on mixture analysis design, one of response surface method was investigated. The independent variables of $TiO_2$ ($X_1$), HAP ($X_2$) and Ge ($X_3$) which consisted of 6 condition in each variables was set up to determine the effects on LM ($Y_1$) and TOC ($Y_2$) degradation. Regression analysis on analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed significant p-value (p < 0.05) and high coefficients for determination value ($R^2$ of $Y_1=99.28%$ and $R^2$ of $Y_2=98.91%$). Contour plot and response curve showed that the effects of $TiO_2/HAP/Ge$ composition for LM degradation under UV-A irradiation. And the estimated optimal composition for TOC removal ($Y_2$) were $X_1=0.6913$, $X_2=0.2313$ and $X_3=0.0756$ by coded value. By comparison with actual applications, the experimental results were found to be in good agreement with the model's predictions, with mean results for LM and TOC removal of 99.2% and 49.3%, respectively.

The Effects of amino acid balance on heat production and nitrogen utilization in broiler chickens : measurement and modeling

  • Kim, Jj-Hyuk;MacLeod, Murdo G.
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society of Poultry Science Conference
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.80-90
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    • 2004
  • Three experiments were performed to test the assumption that imbalanced dietary amino acid mixtures must lead to increased heat production (HP). The first experiment was based on diets formulated to have a wide range of crude protein (CP) concentrations but a fixed concentration of lysine, formulated to be the first-limiting amino acid. In the second (converse) experiment, lysine concentration was varied over a wide range while CP content was kept constant. To prevent the masking of dietary effects by thermoregulatory demands, the third experiment was performed at 30 $^{\circ}C$ with the diets similar to the diets used in the second experiment. The detailed relationships among amino acid balance, nitrogen (N) metabolism and energy (E) metabolism were investigated in a computer-controlled chamber calorimetry system. The results of experiments were compared with the predictions of a computerised simulation model of E metabolism. In experiment 1. with constant lysine and varying CP, there was a 75 % increase in N intake as CP concentration increased. This led to a 150 % increase in N excretion. with no significant change in HP. Simulated HP agreed with the empirically determined results in not showing a trend with dietary CP. In experiment 2, with varying lysine but constant CP, there was a 3-fold difference in daily weight gain between the lowest and highest lysine diets. HP per bird increased significantly with dietary lysine concentration. There was still an effect when HP was adjusted for body weight differences, but it failed to maintain statistical significance. Simulated HP results agreed in showing little effect of varying lysine concentration and growth rate on HP. Based on the results of these two experiments, the third experiment was designed to test the response of birds to dietary lysine in high ambient temperature. In experiment 3 which performed at high ambient temperature (30 $^{\circ}C$), HP per bird increased significantly with dietary lysine content, whether or not adjusted for body-weight. The trend was greater than in the previous experiment (20 $^{\circ}C$).

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Machine learning-based corporate default risk prediction model verification and policy recommendation: Focusing on improvement through stacking ensemble model (머신러닝 기반 기업부도위험 예측모델 검증 및 정책적 제언: 스태킹 앙상블 모델을 통한 개선을 중심으로)

  • Eom, Haneul;Kim, Jaeseong;Choi, Sangok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.105-129
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    • 2020
  • This study uses corporate data from 2012 to 2018 when K-IFRS was applied in earnest to predict default risks. The data used in the analysis totaled 10,545 rows, consisting of 160 columns including 38 in the statement of financial position, 26 in the statement of comprehensive income, 11 in the statement of cash flows, and 76 in the index of financial ratios. Unlike most previous prior studies used the default event as the basis for learning about default risk, this study calculated default risk using the market capitalization and stock price volatility of each company based on the Merton model. Through this, it was able to solve the problem of data imbalance due to the scarcity of default events, which had been pointed out as the limitation of the existing methodology, and the problem of reflecting the difference in default risk that exists within ordinary companies. Because learning was conducted only by using corporate information available to unlisted companies, default risks of unlisted companies without stock price information can be appropriately derived. Through this, it can provide stable default risk assessment services to unlisted companies that are difficult to determine proper default risk with traditional credit rating models such as small and medium-sized companies and startups. Although there has been an active study of predicting corporate default risks using machine learning recently, model bias issues exist because most studies are making predictions based on a single model. Stable and reliable valuation methodology is required for the calculation of default risk, given that the entity's default risk information is very widely utilized in the market and the sensitivity to the difference in default risk is high. Also, Strict standards are also required for methods of calculation. The credit rating method stipulated by the Financial Services Commission in the Financial Investment Regulations calls for the preparation of evaluation methods, including verification of the adequacy of evaluation methods, in consideration of past statistical data and experiences on credit ratings and changes in future market conditions. This study allowed the reduction of individual models' bias by utilizing stacking ensemble techniques that synthesize various machine learning models. This allows us to capture complex nonlinear relationships between default risk and various corporate information and maximize the advantages of machine learning-based default risk prediction models that take less time to calculate. To calculate forecasts by sub model to be used as input data for the Stacking Ensemble model, training data were divided into seven pieces, and sub-models were trained in a divided set to produce forecasts. To compare the predictive power of the Stacking Ensemble model, Random Forest, MLP, and CNN models were trained with full training data, then the predictive power of each model was verified on the test set. The analysis showed that the Stacking Ensemble model exceeded the predictive power of the Random Forest model, which had the best performance on a single model. Next, to check for statistically significant differences between the Stacking Ensemble model and the forecasts for each individual model, the Pair between the Stacking Ensemble model and each individual model was constructed. Because the results of the Shapiro-wilk normality test also showed that all Pair did not follow normality, Using the nonparametric method wilcoxon rank sum test, we checked whether the two model forecasts that make up the Pair showed statistically significant differences. The analysis showed that the forecasts of the Staging Ensemble model showed statistically significant differences from those of the MLP model and CNN model. In addition, this study can provide a methodology that allows existing credit rating agencies to apply machine learning-based bankruptcy risk prediction methodologies, given that traditional credit rating models can also be reflected as sub-models to calculate the final default probability. Also, the Stacking Ensemble techniques proposed in this study can help design to meet the requirements of the Financial Investment Business Regulations through the combination of various sub-models. We hope that this research will be used as a resource to increase practical use by overcoming and improving the limitations of existing machine learning-based models.

Self-optimizing feature selection algorithm for enhancing campaign effectiveness (캠페인 효과 제고를 위한 자기 최적화 변수 선택 알고리즘)

  • Seo, Jeoung-soo;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.173-198
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    • 2020
  • For a long time, many studies have been conducted on predicting the success of campaigns for customers in academia, and prediction models applying various techniques are still being studied. Recently, as campaign channels have been expanded in various ways due to the rapid revitalization of online, various types of campaigns are being carried out by companies at a level that cannot be compared to the past. However, customers tend to perceive it as spam as the fatigue of campaigns due to duplicate exposure increases. Also, from a corporate standpoint, there is a problem that the effectiveness of the campaign itself is decreasing, such as increasing the cost of investing in the campaign, which leads to the low actual campaign success rate. Accordingly, various studies are ongoing to improve the effectiveness of the campaign in practice. This campaign system has the ultimate purpose to increase the success rate of various campaigns by collecting and analyzing various data related to customers and using them for campaigns. In particular, recent attempts to make various predictions related to the response of campaigns using machine learning have been made. It is very important to select appropriate features due to the various features of campaign data. If all of the input data are used in the process of classifying a large amount of data, it takes a lot of learning time as the classification class expands, so the minimum input data set must be extracted and used from the entire data. In addition, when a trained model is generated by using too many features, prediction accuracy may be degraded due to overfitting or correlation between features. Therefore, in order to improve accuracy, a feature selection technique that removes features close to noise should be applied, and feature selection is a necessary process in order to analyze a high-dimensional data set. Among the greedy algorithms, SFS (Sequential Forward Selection), SBS (Sequential Backward Selection), SFFS (Sequential Floating Forward Selection), etc. are widely used as traditional feature selection techniques. It is also true that if there are many risks and many features, there is a limitation in that the performance for classification prediction is poor and it takes a lot of learning time. Therefore, in this study, we propose an improved feature selection algorithm to enhance the effectiveness of the existing campaign. The purpose of this study is to improve the existing SFFS sequential method in the process of searching for feature subsets that are the basis for improving machine learning model performance using statistical characteristics of the data to be processed in the campaign system. Through this, features that have a lot of influence on performance are first derived, features that have a negative effect are removed, and then the sequential method is applied to increase the efficiency for search performance and to apply an improved algorithm to enable generalized prediction. Through this, it was confirmed that the proposed model showed better search and prediction performance than the traditional greed algorithm. Compared with the original data set, greed algorithm, genetic algorithm (GA), and recursive feature elimination (RFE), the campaign success prediction was higher. In addition, when performing campaign success prediction, the improved feature selection algorithm was found to be helpful in analyzing and interpreting the prediction results by providing the importance of the derived features. This is important features such as age, customer rating, and sales, which were previously known statistically. Unlike the previous campaign planners, features such as the combined product name, average 3-month data consumption rate, and the last 3-month wireless data usage were unexpectedly selected as important features for the campaign response, which they rarely used to select campaign targets. It was confirmed that base attributes can also be very important features depending on the type of campaign. Through this, it is possible to analyze and understand the important characteristics of each campaign type.

Self-Regulatory Mode Effects on Emotion and Customer's Response in Failed Services - Focusing on the moderate effect of attribution processing - (고객의 자기조절성향이 서비스 실패에 따른 부정적 감정과 고객반응에 미치는 영향 - 귀인과정에 따른 조정적 역할을 중심으로 -)

  • Sung, Hyung-Suk;Han, Sang-Lin
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.83-110
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    • 2010
  • Dissatisfied customers may express their dissatisfaction behaviorally. These behavioral responses may impact the firms' profitability. How do we model the impact of self regulatory orientation on emotions and subsequent customer behaviors? Obviously, the positive and negative emotions experienced in these situations will influence the overall degree of satisfaction or dissatisfaction with the service(Zeelenberg and Pieters 1999). Most likely, these specific emotions will also partly determine the subsequent behavior in relation to the service and service provider, such as the likelihood of complaining, the degree to which customers will switch or repurchase, and the extent of word of mouth communication they will engage in(Zeelenberg and Pieters 2004). This study investigates the antecedents, consequences of negative consumption emotion and the moderate effect of attribution processing in an integrated model(self regulatory mode → specific emotions → behavioral responses). We focused on the fact that regret and disappointment have effects on consumer behavior. Especially, There are essentially two approaches in this research: the valence based approach and the specific emotions approach. The authors indicate theoretically and show empirically that it matters to distinguish these approaches in services research. and The present studies examined the influence of two regulatory mode concerns(Locomotion orientation and Assessment orientation) with making comparisons on experiencing post decisional regret and disappointment(Pierro, Kruglanski, and Higgins 2006; Pierro et al. 2008). When contemplating a decision with a negative outcome, it was predicted that high (vs low) locomotion would induce more disappointment than regret, whereas high (vs low) assessment would induce more regret than disappointment. The validity of the measurement scales was also confirmed by evaluations provided by the participating respondents and an independent advisory panel; samples provided recommendations throughout the primary, exploratory phases of the study. The resulting goodness of fit statistics were RMR or RMSEA of 0.05, GFI and AGFI greater than 0.9, and a chi-square with a 175.11. The indicators of the each constructs were very good measures of variables and had high convergent validity as evidenced by the reliability with a more than 0.9. Some items were deleted leaving those that reflected the cognitive dimension of importance rather than the dimension. The indicators were very good measures and had convergent validity as evidenced by the reliability of 0.9. These results for all constructs indicate the measurement fits the sample data well and is adequate for use. The scale for each factor was set by fixing the factor loading to one of its indicator variables and then applying the maximum likelihood estimation method. The results of the analysis showed that directions of the effects in the model are ultimately supported by the theory underpinning the causal linkages of the model. This research proposed 6 hypotheses on 6 latent variables and tested through structural equation modeling. 6 alternative measurements were compared through statistical significance test of the paths of research model and the overall fitting level of structural equation model and the result was successful. Also, Locomotion orientation more positively influences disappointment when internal attribution is high than low and Assessment orientation more positively influences regret when external attribution is high than low. In sum, The results of our studies suggest that assessment and locomotion concerns, both as chronic individual predispositions and as situationally induced states, influence the amount of people's experienced regret and disappointment. These findings contribute to our understanding of regulatory mode, regret, and disappointment. In previous studies of regulatory mode, relatively little attention has been paid to the post actional evaluative phase of self regulation. The present findings indicate that assessment concerns and locomotion concerns are clearly distinct in this phase, with individuals higher in assessment delving more into possible alternatives to past actions and individuals higher in locomotion engaging less in such reflective thought. What this suggests is that, separate from decreasing the amount of counterfactual thinking per se, individuals with locomotion concerns want to move on, to get on with it. Regret is about the past and not the future. Thus, individuals with locomotion concerns are less likely to experience regret. The results supported our predictions. We discuss the implications of these findings for the nature of regret and disappointment from the perspective of their relation to regulatory mode. Also, self regulatory mode and the specific emotions(disappointment and regret) were assessed and their influence on customers' behavioral responses(inaction, word of mouth) was examined, using a sample of 275 customers. It was found that emotions have a direct impact on behavior over and above the effects of negative emotions and customer behavior. Hence, We argue against incorporating emotions such as regret and disappointment into a specific response measure and in favor of a specific emotions approach on self regulation. Implications for services marketing practice and theory are discussed.

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