• Title/Summary/Keyword: Statistical models

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Prevention of calcification in bovine pericardial bioprosthesis -pretreatment with surfactants- (우심낭편의 석회화 방지에 관한 연구 - 계면활성제 전처치 효과 -)

  • 안재호;한재진;박성수
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.560-566
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    • 1998
  • Background: Bovine pericardial bioprosthesis treated with glutaraldehyde (GA) is one of the most popular prosthetic materials, but late calcific degeneration after implantation is a problem that remains unsolved. For the purpose of mitigating the calcific degeneration, we added MgCl2 into the 0.625% GA solution to compete with calcium for binding to the free aldehyde from GA and pretreated with the surfactants like sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS) and Triton X-100 before GA fixation for preventing the phospholipid infiltration into the pericardial tissue, the first step of the calcific degeneration. Material and Method: 40 square-shaped pieces of bovine pericardia were fixed in 0.625% GA solution with 4g/L MgCl2 6H2O as a control group (group 1). 40 pieces pretreated with 1% SDS were also fixed in the same GA solution (group 2) and other 40 pieces pretreated with 1% Triton X-100 were prepared with the same method (group 3). After 1 month of fixation these were implanted into the belly of 40 Sprague-Dawley subdermally and extracted 1 month, 2 months, 3 months and 6 months after implantation. With atomic absorption spectrophotometry we measured the deposited calcium amount. Result: 1 month after implantation we could not find any differences between the three groups, but by the 2nd month calcium deposition was 0.921$\pm$0.121 mg/g in group 1, 0.481$\pm$0.037 mg/g in group 2 and 1.369$\pm$0.200 mg/g in group 3. By the 3rd month it was 0.786$\pm$0.080 mg/g in group 1, 0.584$\pm$0.054 mg/g in group 2 and 1.139$\pm$0.188 mg/g in group 3, and on the 6th month 1.623$\pm$0.601 mg/g in group 1,0.501$\pm$0.043 mg/g in group 2 and 1.625$\pm$0.382 mg/g in group 3, with statistical significance in group 2(p<0.05). Conclusion: Pretreatment with SDS showed meaningful calcium mitigation effects on subcutaneously implanted bovine pericardium in the rat models but the neutral type surfactant, Triton X-100, had no positive mitigation effect in this experiment.

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Development of a Predictive Model Describing the Growth of Listeria Monocytogenes in Fresh Cut Vegetable (샐러드용 신선 채소에서의 Listerio monocytogenes 성장예측모델 개발)

  • Cho, Joon-Il;Lee, Soon-Ho;Lim, Ji-Su;Kwak, Hyo-Sun;Hwang, In-Gyun
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.25-30
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    • 2011
  • In this study, predictive mathematical models were developed to predict the kinetics of Listeria monocytogenes growth in the mixed fresh-cut vegetables, which is the most popular ready-to-eat food in the world, as a function of temperature (4, 10, 20 and $30^{\circ}C$). At the specified storage temperatures, the primary growth curve fit well ($r^2$=0.916~0.981) with a Gompertz and Baranyi equation to determine the specific growth rate (SGR). The Polynomial model for natural logarithm transformation of the SGR as a function of temperature was obtained by nonlinear regression (Prism, version 4.0, GraphPad Software). As the storage temperature decreased from $30^{\circ}C$ to $4^{\circ}C$, the SGR decreased, respectively. Polynomial model was identified as appropriate secondary model for SGR on the basis of most statistical indices such as mean square error (MSE=0.002718 by Gompertz, 0.055186 by Baranyi), bias factor (Bf=1.050084 by Gompertz, 1.931472 by Baranyi) and accuracy factor (Af=1.160767 by Gompertz, 2.137181 by Baranyi). Results indicate L. monocytogenes growth was affected by temperature mainly, and equation was developed by Gompertz model (-0.1606+$0.0574^*Temp$+$0.0009^*Temp^*Temp$) was more effective than equation was developed by Baranyi model (0.3502-$0.0496^*Temp$+$0.0022^*Temp^*Temp$) for specific growth rate prediction of L.monocytogenes in the mixed fresh-cut vegetables.

Prediction of the risk of skin cancer caused by UVB radiation exposure using a method of meta-analysis (Meta-analysis를 이용한 UVB 조사량에 따른 피부암 발생 위해도의 예측 연구)

  • Shin, D.C.;Lee, J.T.;Yang, J.Y.
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.31 no.1 s.60
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    • pp.91-103
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    • 1998
  • Under experimental conditions, UVB radiation, a type of ultra violet radiation, has shown to .elate with the occurrence of skin erythema (sun-burn) in human and skin cancer in experimental animal. Cumulative exposure to UVB is also believed to be at least partly responsible for the 'aging' process of the skin in human. It has also been observed to have an effect of altering DNA (deoxyribonucleic acid). UVB radiation is both an initiator and a promoter of non-melanoma skin cancer. Meta-analysis is a new discipline that critically reviews and statistically combines the results of previous researches. A recent review of meta-analysis in the field of public health emphasized its growing importance. Using a meta-analysis in this study, we explored more reliable dose-response relationships between UVB radiation and skin cancer incidence. We estimated skin cancer incidence using measured UVB radiation dose at a local area of Seoul (Shin chou-dong). The studies showing the dose-response relationships between UVB radiation and non-melanoma skin cancer incidence were searched and selected for a meta-analysis. The data for 7 reported epidemiological studies of three counties (USA, England, Australia) were pooled to estimated the risk. We estimated rate of incidence change of skin cancer using pooled data by meta-analysis method, and exponential and power models. Using either model, the regression coefficients for UVB did not differ significantly by gender and age. In each analysis of variance, non-melanoma skin cancer incidence after removing the gender and age and UVB effects was significant (p>0.01). The coefficients for UVB dose were estimated $2.07\times10^{-6}$ by the exponential model and 2.49 by the power model. At a local area of Seoul (Shinchon-Dong), BAF value were estimated 1.90 and 2.51 by the exponential and power model, respectively. The estimated BAP value were increased statistical power than that of primary studies that using a meta-analysis method.

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Estimation of the Superelevation Safety Factor Considering Operating Speed at 3-Dimensional Alignment (입체선형의 주행속도를 고려한 편경사 안전율 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Tae-Hoon;Kim, Joong-Hyo;Park, Je-Jin;Park, Ju-Won;Ha, Tae-Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.7 s.85
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    • pp.159-163
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    • 2005
  • The propriety between suppliers and demanders in geometric design is very important. Although the final purpose of constructing roads is to concern about the driver s comfort, unfortunately, it has not been considered so far. We've considered the regularity and quickness in considering driver's comfort but there should be considered the safety for the accident as well. If drivers are appeared to be more speeding than designer's intention, there will be needed some supplements to increase the safety rate for the roads. Even if both an upward and downward section are supposed to exist at the same time for solid geometry of the roads like this, it is true that the recent design for the 3-D solid geometry section has been done as flat 2-D and the minimum plane curve radius and the maximum cant have been decided just by calculating without considering operating speed between an upward and downward section at the same point. In this investigation, thus, I'd like to calculate the safety of the cant by considering the speed features of the solid geometry for the first lane of four lane rural roads. To begin with, we investigated the driving speed of the car, which is not been influenced by a preceding car to analyze the influence of the geometrical structure by using Nc-97. Secondly, we statistically analyzed the driving features of the solid geometry after comparing the 6 sections, that is, measuring the driving speed feature at 12 points and combining the influence of the vertical geometry and plane geometry to the driving speed of the plane curve which was researched before. Finally, we estimated the value of cant which considers the driving speed not by using it which has applied uniformly without considering it properly, though there were some differences between a designed speed and driving speed through the result of the basic statistical analysis but by introducing the new safety rate rule, a notion of ${\alpha}$. As a result of the research, we could see the driving features of the car and suggest the safety rate which considers these. For considering the maximum cant, if we apply the safety rate, the result of this experiment, which considers 3-D solid geometry, there'll be the improvement of the driver's safety for designing roads. In addition, after collecting and analyzing the data for the road sections which have various geometrical structures by expanding this experiment it is considered that there should be developed the models which considers 3-D solid geometry.

Accuracy of the healing abutment and impression coping combined system on implant impression (인상채득이 가능한 치유지대주를 이용한 임플란트 인상채득의 정확성)

  • Jeon, Kyoung-Bae;Lee, Du-Hyeong;Kim, Jung-Han;Hwang, Jun-Ho;Park, Hyun-We;Lee, Kyu-Bok
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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    • v.53 no.2
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    • pp.105-110
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the 3 dimensional accuracy of impression taking on the newly developed healing abutment and impression coping combined system comparing conventional pick-up type impression. Materials and methods: For 10 patients who had a single missing tooth on molar area, dental implants (SuperLine; Dentium, Seoul, Korea) were placed and healing abutment (MyHealing; Raphabio Co., Seoul, Korea) abutments were connected. After 3 months, transfer type impression with MyHealing and pick-up type impression with impression coping were performed twice in the same patients, and master models were fabricated. Customized prosthetic abutments (Myplant; Raphabio Co., Seoul, Korea) were milled and connected to the master casts. Through a dental scanner (Scanner S600; Zirkonzahn, South Tyrol, Italy), the master casts were converted into virtual casts. The length and angulation differences between casts were measured using 3 dimentional analysis program (Geomagic Qualify 12; Geomagic, Morrisville, NC, USA). Statistical significance was calculated using Kruskal Wallis test and Mann-Whitney U test (${\alpha}$=.05). Results: The length differences between the two systems were 0.032 mm in sagittal plane, and 0.029 in coronal plane, and 0.023 mm in horizontal plane. The angulation differences were $0.755^{\circ}$ in sagittal plane, and $1.275^{\circ}$ in coronal plane, and $0.420^{\circ}$ in horizontal plane. Conclusion: The accuracy of newly developed healing abutment system is similar to that of conventional pick-up impression. The new system can reduces chair time by not using separate impression coping.

THE LUMINOSITY-LINEWIDTH RELATION AS A PROBE OF THE EVOLUTION OF FIELD GALAXIES

  • GUHATHAKURTA PURAGRA;ING KRISTINE;RIX HANS-WALTER;COLLESS MATTHEW;WILLIAMS TED
    • Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.29 no.spc1
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    • pp.63-64
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    • 1996
  • The nature of distant faint blue field galaxies remains a mystery, despite the fact that much attention has been devoted to this subject in the last decade. Galaxy counts, particularly those in the optical and near ultraviolet bandpasses, have been demonstrated to be well in excess of those expected in the 'no-evolution' scenario. This has usually been taken to imply that galaxies were brighter in the past, presumably due to a higher rate of star formation. More recently, redshift surveys of galaxies as faint as B$\~$24 have shown that the mean redshift of faint blue galaxies is lower than that predicted by standard evolutionary models (de-signed to fit the galaxy counts). The galaxy number count data and redshift data suggest that evolutionary effects are most prominent at the faint end of the galaxy luminosity function. While these data constrain the form of evolution of the overall luminosity function, they do not constrain evolution in individual galaxies. We are carrying out a series of observations as part of a long-term program aimed at a better understanding of the nature and amount of luminosity evolution in individual galaxies. Our study uses the luminosity-linewidth relation (Tully-Fisher relation) for disk galaxies as a tool to study luminosity evolution. Several studies of a related nature are being carried out by other groups. A specific experiment to test a 'no-evolution' hypothesis is presented here. We have used the AUTOFIB multifibre spectro-graph on the 4-metre Anglo-Australian Telescope (AAT) and the Rutgers Fabry-Perot imager on the Cerro Tolalo lnteramerican Observatory (CTIO) 4-metre tele-scope to measure the internal kinematics of a representative sample of faint blue field galaxies in the red-shift range z = 0.15-0.4. The emission line profiles of [OII] and [OIII] in a typical sample galaxy are significantly broader than the instrumental resolution (100-120 km $s^{-l}$), and it is possible to make a reliable de-termination of the linewidth. Detailed and realistic simulations based on the properties of nearby, low-luminosity spirals are used to convert the measured linewidth into an estimate of the characteristic rotation speed, making statistical corrections for the effects of inclination, non-uniform distribution of ionized gas, rotation curve shape, finite fibre aperture, etc.. The (corrected) mean characteristic rotation speed for our distant galaxy sample is compared to the mean rotation speed of local galaxies of comparable blue luminosity and colour. The typical galaxy in our distant sample has a B-band luminosity of about 0.25 L$\ast$ and a colour that corresponds to the Sb-Sd/Im range of Hub-ble types. Details of the AUTOFIB fibre spectroscopic study are described by Rix et al. (1996). Follow-up deep near infrared imaging with the 10-metre Keck tele-scope+ NIRC combination and high angular resolution imaging with the Hubble Space Telescope's WFPC2 are being used to determine the structural and orientation parameters of galaxies on an individual basis. This information is being combined with the spatially resolved CTIO Fabry-Perot data to study the internal kinematics of distant galaxies (Ing et al. 1996). The two main questions addressed by these (preliminary studies) are: 1. Do galaxies of a given luminosity and colour have the same characteristic rotation speed in the distant and local Universe? The distant galaxies in our AUTOFIB sample have a mean characteristic rotation speed of $\~$70 km $s^{-l}$ after correction for measurement bias (Fig. 1); this is inconsistent with the characteristic rotation speed of local galaxies of comparable photometric proper-ties (105 km $s^{-l}$) at the > $99\%$ significance level (Fig. 2). A straightforward explanation for this discrepancy is that faint blue galaxies were about 1-1.5 mag brighter (in the B band) at z $\~$ 0.25 than their present-day counterparts. 2. What is the nature of the internal kinematics of faint field galaxies? The linewidths of these faint galaxies appear to be dominated by the global disk rotation. The larger galaxies in our sample are about 2"-.5" in diameter so one can get direct insight into the nature of their internal velocity field from the $\~$ I" seeing CTIO Fabry-Perot data. A montage of Fabry-Perot data is shown in Fig. 3. The linewidths are too large (by. $5\sigma$) to be caused by turbulence in giant HII regions.

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The Relationship Between Son Preference and Fertility (남아 선호와 출산력간의 관계)

  • 이성용
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.31-57
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    • 2003
  • This study is intended to examine (l)whether the value of son-for example, old age security and succession of family lineage- causing son preference in the traditional society can be explained at the individual level, (2)whether women without son in the son preference country continue her childbearing until having at least one son or give up the desire of having a son at a certain level. To accomplish these purposes, the 1974 Korean National Fertility Survey data are analyzed by the quadratic hazard models controlling unobserved heterogeneity. Unlike ordinary regression model, even omitted variables that affect hazard rates and are uncorrelated with the included independent variables can distort the parameter estimates in the hazard model. Therefore the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator(NPMLE) of a mixing distribution developed by Heckman and Singer is used to control unobserved heterogeneity. Based on the statistical result in this study, the value of son causing son preference is determined at the societal level, not at the individual level. And Korean women without a son did not continue endlessly childbearing during child bearing ages until having a son. In general, they gave up the desire having a son when she had born six daughters continuously. Thus, 30-40 years ago, the number of daughters that women without a son giving up the desire of son was six, which is about the level of total fertility rate during 1960s. In these days, we can often see many women who have only two or three daughters and do not any son. This means that the level of giving up the desire of son, which is one factor representing the strength of son preference, becomes lower. If the strength of son preference did not become much weaker, then the fertility rates in Korea could not reach the below replacement level.

The Phenomenological Comparison between Results from Single-hole and Cross-hole Hydraulic Test (균열암반 매질 내 단공 및 공간 간섭 시험에 대한 현상적 비교)

  • Kim, Tae-Hee;Kim, Kue-Young;Oh, Jun-Ho;Hwang, Se-Ho
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.39-53
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    • 2007
  • Generally, fractured medium can be described with some key parameters, such as hydraulic conductivities or random field of hydraulic conductivities (continuum model), spatial and statistical distribution of permeable fractures (discrete fracture network model). Investigating the practical applicability of the well-known conceptual models for the description of groundwater flow in fractured media, various types of hydraulic tests were applied to studies on the highly fractured media in Geumsan, Korea. Results from single-hole packer test show that the horizontal hydraulic conductivities in the permeable media are between $7.67{\times}10^{-10}{\sim}3.16{\times}10^{-6}$ m/sec, with $7.70{\times}10^{-7}$ m/sec arithmetic mean and $2.16{\times}10^{-7}$ m/sec geometric mean. Total number of test interval is 110 at 8 holes. The number of completely impermeable interval is 9, and the low permeable interval - below $1.0{\times}10^{-8}$ m/sec is 14. In other words, most of test intervals are permeable. The vertical distribution of hydraulic conductivities shows apparently the good correlation with the results of flowmeter test. But the results from the cross-hole test show some different features. The results from the cross-hole test are highly related to the connectivity and/or the binary properties of fractured media; permeable and impermeable. From the viewpoint of the connection, the application of the general stochastic approach with a single continuum model may not be appropriate even in the moderately or highly permeable fractured medium. Then, further studies on the investigation method and the analysis procedures should be required for the reasonable and practical design of the conceptual model, with which the binary properties, including permeable/impermeable features, can be described.

Neuroprotective Effect of Phenytoin and Hypothermia on a Spinal Cord Ischemic Injury Model in Rabbits (토끼의 척수 허혈 손상 모델에서 페니토인과 저체온의 신경 보호 효과의 비교)

  • Oh, Sam-Sae;Choe, Ghee-Young;Kim, Won-Gon
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.405-416
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    • 2008
  • Background: Spinal cord ischemic injury during thoracic and thoracoabdominal aortic surgeries remains a potentially devastating outcome despite using various methods of protection. Neuronal voltage-dependent sodium channel antagonists are known to provide neuroprotection in cerebral ischemic models. This study was designed to compare the neuroprotective effects of phenytoin with those of hypothermia in a rabbit model of spinal cord ischemia. Material and Method: Spinal cord ischemia was induced in New Zealand white rabbits by means of infrarenal aortic cross clamping for 25 minutes. Four groups of 8 animals each were studied. The control group and the hypothermia group received retrograde infusion of saline only ($22^{\circ}C$, 2 mL/min); the normothermic phenytoin group and the hypothermicphenytoin group received retrograde infusion of 100 mg of phenytoin at different rectal temperatures ($39^{\circ}C$ and $37^{\circ}C$, respectively) during the ischemic period. The neurologic function was assessed at 24 and 72 hours after the operation with using the modified Tarlov criteria. The spinal cords were harvested after the final neurologic examination for histopathological examination to objectively quantify the amount of neuronal damage. Result: No major adverse effects were observed with the retrograde phenytoin infusion during the aortic ischemic period. All the control rabbits became severely paraplegic, Both the phenytoin group and the hypothermia group had a better neurological status than did the control group (p < 0.05). The typical morphological changes that are characteristic of neuronal necrosis in the gray matter of the control animals were demonstrated by means of the histopathological examination, whereas phenytoin or hypothermia prevented or attenuated these necrotic phenomena (p < 0.05). The number of motor neuron cells positive for TUNEL staining was significantly reduced, to a similar extent, in the rabbits treated with phenytoin or hypothermia. Phenytoin and hypothermia had some additive neuroprotective effect, but there was no statistical significance between the two on the neurological and histopathological analysis. Conclusion: The neurological and histopathological analysis consistently demonstrated that both phenytoin and hypothermia may afford significant spinal cord protection to a similar extent during spinal cord ischemia in rabbits, although no significant additive effects were noticed.

Corporate Bond Rating Using Various Multiclass Support Vector Machines (다양한 다분류 SVM을 적용한 기업채권평가)

  • Ahn, Hyun-Chul;Kim, Kyoung-Jae
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.157-178
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    • 2009
  • Corporate credit rating is a very important factor in the market for corporate debt. Information concerning corporate operations is often disseminated to market participants through the changes in credit ratings that are published by professional rating agencies, such as Standard and Poor's (S&P) and Moody's Investor Service. Since these agencies generally require a large fee for the service, and the periodically provided ratings sometimes do not reflect the default risk of the company at the time, it may be advantageous for bond-market participants to be able to classify credit ratings before the agencies actually publish them. As a result, it is very important for companies (especially, financial companies) to develop a proper model of credit rating. From a technical perspective, the credit rating constitutes a typical, multiclass, classification problem because rating agencies generally have ten or more categories of ratings. For example, S&P's ratings range from AAA for the highest-quality bonds to D for the lowest-quality bonds. The professional rating agencies emphasize the importance of analysts' subjective judgments in the determination of credit ratings. However, in practice, a mathematical model that uses the financial variables of companies plays an important role in determining credit ratings, since it is convenient to apply and cost efficient. These financial variables include the ratios that represent a company's leverage status, liquidity status, and profitability status. Several statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have been applied as tools for predicting credit ratings. Among them, artificial neural networks are most prevalent in the area of finance because of their broad applicability to many business problems and their preeminent ability to adapt. However, artificial neural networks also have many defects, including the difficulty in determining the values of the control parameters and the number of processing elements in the layer as well as the risk of over-fitting. Of late, because of their robustness and high accuracy, support vector machines (SVMs) have become popular as a solution for problems with generating accurate prediction. An SVM's solution may be globally optimal because SVMs seek to minimize structural risk. On the other hand, artificial neural network models may tend to find locally optimal solutions because they seek to minimize empirical risk. In addition, no parameters need to be tuned in SVMs, barring the upper bound for non-separable cases in linear SVMs. Since SVMs were originally devised for binary classification, however they are not intrinsically geared for multiclass classifications as in credit ratings. Thus, researchers have tried to extend the original SVM to multiclass classification. Hitherto, a variety of techniques to extend standard SVMs to multiclass SVMs (MSVMs) has been proposed in the literature Only a few types of MSVM are, however, tested using prior studies that apply MSVMs to credit ratings studies. In this study, we examined six different techniques of MSVMs: (1) One-Against-One, (2) One-Against-AIL (3) DAGSVM, (4) ECOC, (5) Method of Weston and Watkins, and (6) Method of Crammer and Singer. In addition, we examined the prediction accuracy of some modified version of conventional MSVM techniques. To find the most appropriate technique of MSVMs for corporate bond rating, we applied all the techniques of MSVMs to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. The best application is in corporate bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. For our study the research data were collected from National Information and Credit Evaluation, Inc., a major bond-rating company in Korea. The data set is comprised of the bond-ratings for the year 2002 and various financial variables for 1,295 companies from the manufacturing industry in Korea. We compared the results of these techniques with one another, and with those of traditional methods for credit ratings, such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), multinomial logistic regression (MLOGIT), and artificial neural networks (ANNs). As a result, we found that DAGSVM with an ordered list was the best approach for the prediction of bond rating. In addition, we found that the modified version of ECOC approach can yield higher prediction accuracy for the cases showing clear patterns.