• 제목/요약/키워드: Statistical Change-Point Analysis

검색결과 115건 처리시간 0.024초

담배가격 인상에 따른 사무직남성근로자들의 흡연행태 변화 (Change of Smoking Behavior by Male White-collar Workers after a Tobacco Price Increase)

  • 김지현;사공준
    • 한국환경보건학회지
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    • 제43권1호
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    • pp.64-70
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    • 2017
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of the raise of cigarette prices by KRW 2,000 at the beginning of 2015 on the change in smoking behavior among male office workers, and to analyze the correlation of various factors including their work behaviors and socio-economic factors with their smoking rate. Methods: In this research, a follow-up observation panel was constituted with 420 smokers as targets from among male office workers at a bank located in Daegu, South Korea. A cross-analysis and ANOVA analysis were carried out in order to examine whether changes in smoking status, amount of smoking, stop-smoking motivation, and reasons for smoking cessation failure after the passage of time since the cigarette price hike were statistically significant. The level of statistical significance was P < 0.05. Results: After the cigarette price hike, among the 420 smokers who were the target of the panel the rate of smoking cessation declined at the time-point of the survey to 15.5%, 12.4%, 8.5%, and 5.7% after one month, three months, six months, and 12 months, respectively. As a result of a follow-up observation of 65 smokers who stopped smoking immediately after the price hike, the actual non-smoking rate declined to 15.5%, 8.3%, 4.4%, and 3.1% after one month, three months, six months, and 12 months, respectively. One (1) year after the cigarette price hike, the non-smoking rate among the 420 smokers reached as low as 3.1% (13 persons). The most important reason for the failure of the attempts to quit smoking was stress for more than 60% of the smokers who attempted to stop. Conclusions: It seems that a powerful anti-smoking policy by the state targeting the nation's workers is necessary. For companies, mediation for workers' job stress can become a strategy for the success of non-smoking attempts. The government seems to require a practical policy to reduce the smoking rate by actively carrying out social, economic, and scientific research to come up with a reduction method for the cigarette hazard, an effective price hike policy, and other non-price policies.

의미간의 유사도 연구의 패러다임 변화의 필요성-인지 의미론적 관점에서의 고찰 (The Need for Paradigm Shift in Semantic Similarity and Semantic Relatedness : From Cognitive Semantics Perspective)

  • 최영석;박진수
    • 지능정보연구
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    • 제19권1호
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    • pp.111-123
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    • 2013
  • 개념간의 의미적 유사도 및 관계도(Semantic Similarity/Relatedness)를 구하는 연구는 고전적인 연구에서는 데이터 베이스 통합이나 시스템 통합, 그리고 현대의 연구에 있어서는 태그 및 키워드 추출, 연관 단어 추천 등에 걸쳐 다양한 분야에서 활용되어 온 연구이다. 그 연구는 역사가 오래되었을 뿐만 아니라, 경영정보와 컴퓨터 공학, 계산 언어학에 걸쳐 여러 분야에서도 많은 관심을 가져왔던 연구 분야라고 할 수 있다. 그러나, 지금까지의 개념간의 관계도 계산 방식은 미리 만들어진 사전이나 참조할 수 있는 다른 시맨틱 네트워크(Semantic Network)를 이용하여 계산하는 방법이 주를 이루었다. 이러한 접근 방법의 경우, 개념간의 의미적 관계가 변화에 대한 가능성을 고려하지 않는 것이 일반적이다. 하지만, 정보 기술의 발달과 빠른 사회변화는 개념간의 의미관계 등에 변화를 가져오고 있는 것이 현실이다. 사회적으로 일어나는 사건이나, 문화적 변화 등이 개념간의 의미관계를 변화시키는 것을 물론이며, 이러한 변화가 정보 통신 기술의 도움으로 빠르게 공유되고 있다. 이렇게 개념간의 의미 관계가 시간이나 맥락에 따라 빠르게 변화할 수 있는 가능성이 있음에도 불구하고, 기존의 개념간 의미적 유사도 및 관계도에 대한 연구들은 이러한 '의미관계의 변화'에 대한 새로운 문제에 대해 해답을 제시하지 못한 것이 사실이다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 개념간의 유사도 연구에 있어 지금까지 있어왔던 '정적인 의미간 관계도 패러다임'에서 '동적인 의미간 관계도 패러다임'으로의 전환의 필요성과 그 당위성을 인지 의미론적(Cognitive Semantics)의 관점에서 역설하고자 한다. 인간이 인지하는 개념간의 의미관계가 변화할 수 있는 이론적 근거를 인지 의미론에서 찾아봄으로써, 패러다임 변화의 방향을 구체적으로 제시하였다. 또한 이러한 패러다임의 변화에 맞추어 개념간의 의미적 유사도 및 관계도에 대한 연구가 어떠한 방향으로 나아가야 할지 구체적인 연구 방향을 제시함으로써 관련 연구자들에게 새로운 연구의 가이드라인을 제시하였다.

민간경비원의 직무스트레스가 이직의사에 미치는 영향 (The Effect of Job Stress and Turnover Intention among the Employee of Private Security)

  • 박영진;안황권;왕석원
    • 시큐리티연구
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    • 제12호
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    • pp.177-200
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    • 2006
  • 본 연구는 민간경비원의 직무스트레스가 이직의사에 미치는 영향을 규명하는데 연구의 목적이 있으며, 2005년 현재 경찰청에 등록된 서울 및 수도권 소재 민간경비업체 중, 50명 이상 근무하고 있는 업체를 모집단으로 설정하였다. 선정된 경비업체의 민간경비원을 표집대상으로 설정한 후 유층집락무선표집법(stratified cluster random sampling)과 할당표집방법(quota sampling)을 병행 사용하여 표본을 추출하였다. 조사도구는 설문지를 사용하였으며, 타당도와 신뢰도 분석을 통해 검증을 실시한 후 사용하였다. 데이터는 각 목적에 맞게 부호화하여 입력시킨 후 사회과학통계 프로그램인 SPSS 12.0 version을 이용하여 전산처리 하였다. 이와 같은 방법과 절차에 따른 자료 분석을 통하여 본 연구에서 얻은 결론은 다음과 같다. 첫째, 민간경비원의 사회인구학적 특성에 따라 직무스트레스 및 이직의사의 차이를 검증한 결과 부분적으로 유의한 차이가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 직무스트레스와 이직의사의 상관과계 분석 결과 직무환경과 이직의사에서 정적인 관계를 나타내었다. 셋째, 민간경비원의 직무스트레스가 이직의사에 미치는 영향을 검증한 결과 통계적으로 유의한 차이가 있는 것으로 나타났다.

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흉부 CT촬영에서 저선량 프로토콜의 선량과 화질: 표준선량 프로토콜과 비교 (Radiation Dose and Image Quality of Low-dose Protocol in Chest CT: Comparison of Standard-dose Protocol)

  • 이원정;안봉선;박영선
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • 제37권2호
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    • pp.84-89
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    • 2012
  • 임상에서 사용하고 있는 흉부 CT촬영의 저선량 프로토콜과 표준선량 프로토콜 간의 선량과 화질을 비교 분석하였다. 흉부 저선량 프로토콜(120 kVp, 30 mAs)과 표준선량 프로토콜(120 kVp, 180 mAs)로 촬영($Brilliance^{TM}$ CT 16slice, PHILIPS)한 61명의 조영제를 사용하지 않은 영상에서 기관 분기부 위치의 종격동 영상을 본 연구를 위해 사용하였다. 상행대동맥과 가시아래근에서 CT number와 잡음을 측정하였고, Back-ground 잡음을 측정하여 신호대잡음비(signal-to-noise ratio. SNR)와 대조도잡음비(contrast-to-noise ratio, CNR)를 구하였다. 두부 아크릴 팬텀을 이용하여 선량을 측정하였고, 워터 팬텀으로 얻은 영상에서 CT number와 잡음을 측정하였다. 모든 측정은 3회 실시하여 평균값을 SPSS 프로그램(version 14.0)으로 분석하였고, 그래프는 시그마 플롯 프로그램(version10.0)을 사용하였다. 결과: 상행대동맥과 가시아래근에서 저선량 프로토콜 영상이 표준선량 프로토콜 영상 보다 유의하게 높은 잡음을 보였고, SNR과 CNR은 유의하게 낮았다. 두 영상에서 비만지수에 대한 잡음은 양의 관련성을 보였지만, SNR과 CNR은 음의 관련성을 보였다. 팬텀 결과에서 저선량 프로토콜의 선량이 표준선량 프로토콜 보다 유의하게 낮았지만(0.35 mGy vs. 1.95 mGy, p=0.008), 잡음은 저선량 프로토콜에서 유의하게 높았다(p=0.029). 저선량 프로토콜이 표준선량 프로토콜 보다 유의하게 낮은 선량을 보였지만, 화질 평가도 유의하게 낮은 결과를 보임으로서 임상에서 사용하는 저선량 프로토콜의 노출 선량은 화질을 고려하여 상향 조정할 필요가 있다.

토털 아웃소싱 환경 하에서 IT서비스 수준관리(Service Level Management) 프로세스 성숙도가 정보시스템 성공에 미치는 영향에 관한 분석적 사례연구 (The Impact of Service Level Management(SLM) Process Maturity on Information Systems Success in Total Outsourcing: An Analytical Case Study)

  • 조근수;안준모;민형진
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • 제23권2호
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    • pp.21-39
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    • 2013
  • As the utilization of information technology and the turbulence of technological change increase in organizations, the adoption of IT outsourcing also grows to manage IT resource more effectively and efficiently. In this new way of IT management technique, service level management(SLM) process becomes critical to derive success from the outsourcing in the view of end users in organization. Even though much of the research on service level management or agreement have been done during last decades, the performance of the service level management process have not been evaluated in terms of final objectives of the management efforts or success from the view of end-users. This study explores the relationship between SLM maturity and IT outsourcing success from the users' point of view by a analytical case study in four client organizations under an IT outsourcing vendor, which is a member company of a major Korean conglomerate. For setting up a model for the analysis, previous researches on service level management process maturity and information systems success are reviewed. In particular, information systems success from users' point of view are reviewed based the DeLone and McLean's study, which is argued and accepted as a comprehensively tested model of information systems success currently. The model proposed in this study argues that SLM process maturity influences information systems success, which is evaluated in terms of information quality, systems quality, service quality, and net effect proposed by DeLone and McLean. SLM process maturity can be measured in planning process, implementation process and operation and evaluation process. Instruments for measuring the factors in the proposed constructs of information systems success and SL management process maturity were collected from previous researches and evaluated for securing reliability and validity, utilizing appropriate statistical methods and pilot tests before exploring the case study. Four cases from four different companies under one vendor company were utilized for the analysis. All of the cases had been contracted in SLA(Service Level Agreement) and had implemented ITIL(IT Infrastructure Library), Six Sigma and BSC(Balanced Scored Card) methods since last several years, which means that all the client organizations pursued concerted efforts to acquire quality services from IT outsourcing from the organization and users' point of view. For comparing the differences among the four organizations in IT out-sourcing sucess, T-test and non-parametric analysis have been applied on the data set collected from the organization using survey instruments. The process maturities of planning and implementation phases of SLM are found not to influence on any dimensions of information systems success from users' point of view. It was found that the SLM maturity in the phase of operations and evaluation could influence systems quality only from users' view. This result seems to be quite against the arguments in IT outsourcing practices in the fields, which emphasize usually the importance of planning and implementation processes upfront in IT outsourcing projects. According to after-the-fact observation by an expert in an organization participating in the study, their needs and motivations for outsourcing contracts had been quite familiar already to the vendors as long-term partners under a same conglomerate, so that the maturity in the phases of planning and implementation seems not to be differentiating factors for the success of IT outsourcing. This study will be the foundation for the future research in the area of IT outsourcing management and success, in particular in the service level management. And also, it could guide managers in practice in IT outsourcing management to focus on service level management process in operation and evaluation stage especially for long-term outsourcing contracts under very unique context like Korean IT outsourcing projects. This study has some limitations in generalization because the sample size is small and the context itself is confined in an unique environment. For future exploration, survey based research could be designed and implemented.

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우리나라 소나무의 수간곡선식 추정에 의한 탄소저장량 및 흡수량 산정 (Assessment of Carbon Stock and Uptake by Estimation of Stem Taper Equation for Pinus densiflora in Korea)

  • 강진택;손영모;전주현;이선정
    • 한국기후변화학회지
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    • 제8권4호
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    • pp.415-424
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    • 2017
  • This study was conducted to estimate carbon stocks of Pinus densiflora with drawing volume of trees in each tree height and DBH applying the suitable stem taper equation and tree specific carbon emission factors, using collected growth data from all over the country. Information on distribution area, tree age, tree number per hectare, tree volume and volume stocks were obtained from the $5^{th}$ National Forest Inventory (2006~2010) and Statistical yearbook of forest (2016), and method provided in IPCC GPG was applied to estimate carbon stock and uptake. Performance in predicting stem diameter at a specific point along a stem in Pinus densiflora by applying Kozak's model, $d=a_{1}DBH^{a_2}a_3^{DBH}X^{b_{1}Z^2+b_2ln(Z+0.001)+b_3\sqrt{Z}+b_4e^z+b_5(\frac{DBH}{H})}$, which is well known equation in stem taper estimation, was evaluated with validations statistics, Fitness Index, Bias and Standard Error of Bias. Consequently, Kozak's model turned out to be suitable in all validations statistics. Stem volume table of P. densiflora was derived by applying Kozak's model and carbon stock tables in each tree height and DBH were developed with country-specific carbon emission factors ($WD=0.445t/m^3$, BEF = 1.445, R = 0.255) of P. densiflora. As the results of analysis in carbon uptake for each province, the values were high with Gangwon-do $9.4tCO_2/ha/yr$, Gyeongsandnam-do and Gyeonggi-do $8.7tCO_2/ha/yr$, Chungcheongnam-do $7.9tCO_2/ha/yr$ and Gyeongsangbuk-do $7.8tCO_2/ha/yr$ in order, and Jeju-do was the lowest with $6.8tC/ha/yr$. Total carbon stocks of P. densiflora were 127,677 thousands tC which is 25.5% compared with total percentage of forest and carbon stock per hectare (ha) was $84.5tC/ha/yr$ and $7.8tCO_2/ha/yr$, respectively.

당뇨환자의 혈당관리 태도에 대한 요인분석(I) - 혈당관리 요소와 식생활 태도를 중심으로 - (A Factor Analysis Study on Blood Glucose Control in Diabetics Mellitus Patients(1) -Focus on Blood Glucose Control and Lifestyle Factors-)

  • 전정은;이영미;오유진
    • 대한지역사회영양학회지
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    • 제14권2호
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    • pp.236-244
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    • 2009
  • Dietary therapy is a basic and emphasized treatment for diabetes. Several clinical studies have shown that diet can play a major role in preventing and managing diabetes. The purposes of this study were to evaluate the dietary behavior and to find solutions to barriers of diabetes mellitus patients. From February to July in 2007, questionnaires were distributed to one hundred and ten patients who were diagnosed DM by physicians and excluded first coming out-patients. One hundred and three data were used for statistical analysis using SPSS/Win 12.0. The main results of this study included the following: To measure dietary behaviors and barriers, a five point scale was used with the following labels: 'strongly yes', 'yes', 'fair', 'no', 'strongly no'. Thirteen dietary behaviors related to diabetes were grouped into the following 4 factors using factor analysis; 'taste control factor', 'blood glucose influence factor', 'practice volition factor', and 'exercise factor'. The mean scores of 4 factors were 3.88, 3.48, 3.55, 3.21, respectively. The 'taste control behaviors' score of subjects who had practiced diet therapy(4.00) was higher than those who had not practiced diet therapy(P<0.05). The 'blood glucose influence behaviors' score of subjects who had nutrition education(3.59) was higher than those who had no nutrition education(P<0.05) and subjects who had practiced diet therapy showed higher score(3.59) than those who had not practiced diet therapy(P<0.05). 'Exercise behaviors score' of subjects who were over 60(3.59) was the lowest(P<0.05). Subjects who had nutrition education showed higher 'exercise behaviors' scores(3.38) than those who had no nutrition education(P<0.05). Subjects who had practiced diet therapy showed higher 'practice volition behaviors' scores(3.72) than those who had not practiced diet therapy(P<0.001). Subjects who were over weight showed the highest 'practice volition behaviors' scores(3.78) concerning BMI(P<0.05). In conclusion, this study expected that Nutrition educators(Dietitian) applied to patient effective nutrition education and counseling through evaluation of Dietary behaviors and barriers considered management types and ecological factors of diabetes patients. Also diabetic patients were easy to change dietary habits because they formed behaviors through education and counsel and there were positive effects in their blood glucose control through removing barriers related to dietary therapy.

전북지역 주부들의 전통발효식품 섭취실태 및 소비현황 조사 (An Investigation on the Eating Status and Expenditures of the Traditional Fermented foods for the Housewives in Jeonbuk Province)

  • 최나미;차진아
    • 대한가정학회지
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    • 제46권4호
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    • pp.71-81
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    • 2008
  • The purposes of this study were to investigate the eating status and to analyze expenditures of the traditional fermented foods. A structured questionnaire survey was conducted from 370 housewives in Jeonbuk province and there were 300 usable samples(81.1%) valid for analysis. For the statistical analysis, the data was analyzed by $x^2$-test using SPSSIPC 12.0 for windows. The results of this study were as follows : 1. In the investigation on the eating status of the traditional fermented foods, Kimchi showed highest intake frequency(over once a day) and next Doenjang, Gochujang, Ganjang were consumed $2\;{\sim}\;3$ times per week. Jeotgal and Jangajji consumption showed the significant difference frequencies between the age groups(p < 0.001). The frequencies of using the home-made fermented foods were either similar or decreased, while the manufactured products were either similar or increased. The reasons behind the decreasing consumption were 'because of appetite change(47.0%)', 'the effect of western food(25.2%)' and 'dislike of salty food(17.4%)'. 90.7%(Kimchi), 54.9%(Doenjang), 54.8%(Gochujang), 53.2%(Cheongkukjang) of respondents knew the methods of preparation, while 62.5%(Ganjang), 41.1%(Jeotgal,) 31.2%(Jangajji) of respondents didn't know the methods of preparation. 2. In the analysis of the expenditure for the purchasing of the traditional fermented foods, most of the respondents procured Kimchi, Doenjang, Gochujang from their families or relatives, but they bought Ganjang, Jeotgal, Jangajji in the markets. And most of the respondents bought the fermented foods in the general merchandise stores or the department store except Kimchi. The places of buying Kimchi were specialty stores(34.6%), general merchandise stores or department stores(25.0%). Overall scores of satisfaction for the quality of manufactured fermented foods showed 3.29 of 5 - point scales. The average cost per month of Kimchi was 19,550won and Gochujang 7,878won, Doenjang 5,764won, Jeotgal 5,439won, Jangajji 5,412won, Ganjang(for soup) 4,714won, Cheongkukjang 4,677won, Ganjang(for seasoning) 4,464won, and total cost was 20,920won. The reasons behind purchasing the traditional fermented foods were 'because of convenience(58.4%)', 'no time to make by oneself(23.0%)' and 'for not knowing the making methods(12.8%)'. The problems of the manufactured traditional fermented foods were 'worry about safety of the raw materials or additives(71.2%)', 'lack of sanitation(12.0%)'. The most important thing considered in purchasing was 'materials and origins(86.6%)' and next 'quality(64.1%)' was another important thing.

Perceptional Change of a New Product, DMB Phone

  • Kim, Ju-Young;Ko, Deok-Im
    • 마케팅과학연구
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    • 제18권3호
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    • pp.59-88
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    • 2008
  • Digital Convergence means integration between industry, technology, and contents, and in marketing, it usually comes with creation of new types of product and service under the base of digital technology as digitalization progress in electro-communication industries including telecommunication, home appliance, and computer industries. One can see digital convergence not only in instruments such as PC, AV appliances, cellular phone, but also in contents, network, service that are required in production, modification, distribution, re-production of information. Convergence in contents started around 1990. Convergence in network and service begins as broadcasting and telecommunication integrates and DMB(digital multimedia broadcasting), born in May, 2005 is the symbolic icon in this trend. There are some positive and negative expectations about DMB. The reason why two opposite expectations exist is that DMB does not come out from customer's need but from technology development. Therefore, customers might have hard time to interpret the real meaning of DMB. Time is quite critical to a high tech product, like DMB because another product with same function from different technology can replace the existing product within short period of time. If DMB does not positioning well to customer's mind quickly, another products like Wibro, IPTV, or HSPDA could replace it before it even spreads out. Therefore, positioning strategy is critical for success of DMB product. To make correct positioning strategy, one needs to understand how consumer interprets DMB and how consumer's interpretation can be changed via communication strategy. In this study, we try to investigate how consumer perceives a new product, like DMB and how AD strategy change consumer's perception. More specifically, the paper segment consumers into sub-groups based on their DMB perceptions and compare their characteristics in order to understand how they perceive DMB. And, expose them different printed ADs that have messages guiding consumer think DMB in specific ways, either cellular phone or personal TV. Research Question 1: Segment consumers according to perceptions about DMB and compare characteristics of segmentations. Research Question 2: Compare perceptions about DMB after AD that induces categorization of DMB in direction for each segment. If one understand and predict a direction in which consumer perceive a new product, firm can select target customers easily. We segment consumers according to their perception and analyze characteristics in order to find some variables that can influence perceptions, like prior experience, usage, or habit. And then, marketing people can use this variables to identify target customers and predict their perceptions. If one knows how customer's perception is changed via AD message, communication strategy could be constructed properly. Specially, information from segmented customers helps to develop efficient AD strategy for segment who has prior perception. Research framework consists of two measurements and one treatment, O1 X O2. First observation is for collecting information about consumer's perception and their characteristics. Based on first observation, the paper segment consumers into two groups, one group perceives DMB similar to Cellular phone and the other group perceives DMB similar to TV. And compare characteristics of two segments in order to find reason why they perceive DMB differently. Next, we expose two kinds of AD to subjects. One AD describes DMB as Cellular phone and the other Ad describes DMB as personal TV. When two ADs are exposed to subjects, consumers don't know their prior perception of DMB, in other words, which subject belongs 'similar-to-Cellular phone' segment or 'similar-to-TV' segment? However, we analyze the AD's effect differently for each segment. In research design, final observation is for investigating AD effect. Perception before AD is compared with perception after AD. Comparisons are made for each segment and for each AD. For the segment who perceives DMB similar to TV, AD that describes DMB as cellular phone could change the prior perception. And AD that describes DMB as personal TV, could enforce the prior perception. For data collection, subjects are selected from undergraduate students because they have basic knowledge about most digital equipments and have open attitude about a new product and media. Total number of subjects is 240. In order to measure perception about DMB, we use indirect measurement, comparison with other similar digital products. To select similar digital products, we pre-survey students and then finally select PDA, Car-TV, Cellular Phone, MP3 player, TV, and PSP. Quasi experiment is done at several classes under instructor's allowance. After brief introduction, prior knowledge, awareness, and usage about DMB as well as other digital instruments is asked and their similarities and perceived characteristics are measured. And then, two kinds of manipulated color-printed AD are distributed and similarities and perceived characteristics for DMB are re-measured. Finally purchase intension, AD attitude, manipulation check, and demographic variables are asked. Subjects are given small gift for participation. Stimuli are color-printed advertising. Their actual size is A4 and made after several pre-test from AD professionals and students. As results, consumers are segmented into two subgroups based on their perceptions of DMB. Similarity measure between DMB and cellular phone and similarity measure between DMB and TV are used to classify consumers. If subject whose first measure is less than the second measure, she is classified into segment A and segment A is characterized as they perceive DMB like TV. Otherwise, they are classified as segment B, who perceives DMB like cellular phone. Discriminant analysis on these groups with their characteristics of usage and attitude shows that Segment A knows much about DMB and uses a lot of digital instrument. Segment B, who thinks DMB as cellular phone doesn't know well about DMB and not familiar with other digital instruments. So, consumers with higher knowledge perceive DMB similar to TV because launching DMB advertising lead consumer think DMB as TV. Consumers with less interest on digital products don't know well about DMB AD and then think DMB as cellular phone. In order to investigate perceptions of DMB as well as other digital instruments, we apply Proxscal analysis, Multidimensional Scaling technique at SPSS statistical package. At first step, subjects are presented 21 pairs of 7 digital instruments and evaluate similarity judgments on 7 point scale. And for each segment, their similarity judgments are averaged and similarity matrix is made. Secondly, Proxscal analysis of segment A and B are done. At third stage, get similarity judgment between DMB and other digital instruments after AD exposure. Lastly, similarity judgments of group A-1, A-2, B-1, and B-2 are named as 'after DMB' and put them into matrix made at the first stage. Then apply Proxscal analysis on these matrixes and check the positional difference of DMB and after DMB. The results show that map of segment A, who perceives DMB similar as TV, shows that DMB position closer to TV than to Cellular phone as expected. Map of segment B, who perceive DMB similar as cellular phone shows that DMB position closer to Cellular phone than to TV as expected. Stress value and R-square is acceptable. And, change results after stimuli, manipulated Advertising show that AD makes DMB perception bent toward Cellular phone when Cellular phone-like AD is exposed, and that DMB positioning move towards Car-TV which is more personalized one when TV-like AD is exposed. It is true for both segment, A and B, consistently. Furthermore, the paper apply correspondence analysis to the same data and find almost the same results. The paper answers two main research questions. The first one is that perception about a new product is made mainly from prior experience. And the second one is that AD is effective in changing and enforcing perception. In addition to above, we extend perception change to purchase intention. Purchase intention is high when AD enforces original perception. AD that shows DMB like TV makes worst intention. This paper has limitations and issues to be pursed in near future. Methodologically, current methodology can't provide statistical test on the perceptual change, since classical MDS models, like Proxscal and correspondence analysis are not probability models. So, a new probability MDS model for testing hypothesis about configuration needs to be developed. Next, advertising message needs to be developed more rigorously from theoretical and managerial perspective. Also experimental procedure could be improved for more realistic data collection. For example, web-based experiment and real product stimuli and multimedia presentation could be employed. Or, one can display products together in simulated shop. In addition, demand and social desirability threats of internal validity could influence on the results. In order to handle the threats, results of the model-intended advertising and other "pseudo" advertising could be compared. Furthermore, one can try various level of innovativeness in order to check whether it make any different results (cf. Moon 2006). In addition, if one can create hypothetical product that is really innovative and new for research, it helps to make a vacant impression status and then to study how to form impression in more rigorous way.

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건설투자(建設投資)의 단기예측모형(短期豫測模型) 비교(比較) (Short-term Construction Investment Forecasting Model in Korea)

  • 김관영;이창수
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • 제14권1호
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    • pp.121-145
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    • 1992
  • 본고(本稿)에서는 현재의 경제상황을 잘 반영하는 건설투자활동(建設投資活動)의 단기예측모형(短期豫測模型)을 정립하고자 먼저 관련 시계열자료의 안정성(安定性) 여부(與否)와 순환성(循環性), 계절성(季節性)의 특성을 살펴본 후 여러 단기모형의 예측력(豫測力), 정합성(整合性), 설명력(說明力)을 비교 검토했다. 단위근(單位根) 검정(檢定)과 자기상관계수(自己相關係數) 스펙트랄 밀도함수 분석의 결과, 건설관련 시계열자료들이 대체로 단위근(單位根)을 갖지 않음으로써 안정적이고 주기적인 순환변동을 하고 있으며, 시차변수의 설명력이 높은 특성을 나타내었다. 또한 건설투자자료의 특성이 선행지표(先行指標)인 건축허가연면적(建築許可延面積) 및 건설수주액(建設受注額)과 아주 유사하여 건설투자 단기예측에 있어서 두 지표 사이의 시차관계(時差關係) 파악이 중요함을 알 수 있었다. 제(第)III장(章)에서는 단변량(單變量) 시계열모형(時系列模型)으로 ARIMA모형(模型)과 승법선형추세예측모형(乘法線型趨勢豫測模型)을, 다변량(多變量) 시계열모형(時系列模型)으로는 첫째, 선행지표(先行指標)를 이용한 1차자기회귀모형(次自己回歸模型), VAR모형(模型), 둘째 GNP자료를 이용한 거시경제모형의 단순한 축약형모형(縮約型模型)과 VAR모형(模型)을 제시하고 이들을 비교 평가하였다. 이에 따르면 단변량 시계열모형보다는 다변량 시계열모형이 시간이 경과할수록 예측오차(豫測誤差)가 커지지 않는다는 점에서 우수한 것으로 나타났으며, 다변량모형 중에서도 벡터자기회귀모형이 여타 모형보다 절대예측오차평균(絶對豫測誤差平均), 평균자승근(平均自乘根) 퍼센트 오차(誤差), 결정계수(決定係數) 등 모든 면에서 우수한 것으로 평가되었다. 이는 최근 건설투자가 추세에서 벗어난 급증세를 지속하고 있음을 고려할 때 타당한 결론이라 생각된다.

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