• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.45 no.3
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• pp.123-130
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• 2022

Pair trading is a statistical arbitrage investment strategy. Traditionally, cointegration has been utilized in the pair exploring step to discover a pair with a similar price movement. Recently, the clustering analysis has attracted many researchers' attention, replacing the cointegration method. This study tests a clustering-driven pair trading investment strategy in the Korean stock market. If a pair detected through clustering has a large spread during the spread exploring period, the pair is included in the portfolio for backtesting. The profitability of the clustering-driven pair trading strategies is investigated based on various profitability measures such as the distribution of returns, cumulative returns, profitability by period, and sensitivity analysis on different parameters. The backtesting results show that the pair trading investment strategy is valid in the Korean stock market. More interestingly, the clustering-driven portfolio investments show higher performance compared to benchmarks. Note that the hierarchical clustering shows the best portfolio performance.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.459-479
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• 2007

Theories related to financial market has received big attention from the statistics community. However, not many courses on the topic are provided in statistics departments. Because the financial theories are entangled with many complicated mathematical and physical theories as well as ambiguously stated financial terminologies. Based on our experience on the topic, we try to explain the rather complicated terminologies and theories with easy-to-understand words. This paper will briefly cover the topics of basic terminologies of derivatives, Black-Scholes pricing idea, and related basic mathematical terminologies.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.639-645
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• 2009

Fractional Brwonian motion(fBm) has properties of behaving tails and exhibiting long memory while remaining Gaussian. In particular, it is well known that interest rates show some long memories and non-Markovian. We present no aribitrage condition for HJM model under the multi-factor fBm reflecting the long range dependence in the interest rate model.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.117-124
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• 2008

The liquidity risk is defined as an additional risk in the market due to the timing and size of a trade. A recent work by Cetin et ai. (2003) proposes a rigorous mathematical model incorporating this liquidity risk into the arbitrage pricing theory. A practical problem arising in a real market application is an estimation problem of a liquidity cost. In this paper, we propose to estimate the liquidity cost function in the context of Cetin et al. (2003) using the constrained least square (LS) method, and illustrate it by analyzing the Kellogg company data.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.1-15
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• 2016

Pairs trading is an arbitrage trading strategy using statistical properties of the spreads between two assets. This study analyzes the performance of the statistical pairs trading with the pairs selected from the same category as well as from the different category in the CME and other futures markets. Empirical results show that the pairs trading performance of the same category is poor whereas that of the different category proves profitable. This implies that the spreads between different category pairs can have the mean reversion property if pairs are properly selected using co-integration test, which is contrary to the existing research results on the overseas futures pairs trading.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.721-733
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• 2011

We consider the state price densities that are implicit in financial asset prices. In the pricing of an option, the state price density is proportional to the second derivative of the option pricing function and this relationship together with no arbitrage principle imposes restrictions on the pricing function such as monotonicity and convexity. Since the state price density is a proper density function and most of the shape constraints are caused by this, we propose to estimate the state price density directly by specifying candidate densities in a flexible nonparametric way and applying methods of regularization under extra constraints. The problem is easy to solve and the resulting state price density estimates satisfy all the restrictions required by economic theory.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.4
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• pp.177-195
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• 2022

This study analyzed the volatility spillover effect between international non-ferrous metal futures markets using the BEKK-GARCH model. Statistical data are futures price data of copper (CU), aluminum (AL), nickel (NI), tin (SN) from Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) and London Metal Exchange (LME) from April 1, 2015 to December 31, 2021. Combining the research results, first, in the case of copper, aluminum, and nickel, it was found that there was a two-way volatility spillover effect between the Shanghai and London markets, and the international influence of the London market was greater. Second, in the case of the tin, it was found that the Shanghai market has a volatility spillover effect on the London market from stage I, and it is strengthened in stage II. Third, in the case of nickel, it was found that there was a two-way volatility spillover effect in the first stage, but in the second stage, the London market had a unidirectional volatility spillover effect with respect to the Shanghai market. This study confirmed that China's influence in the international non-ferrous metal futures market is gradually increasing. In addition, it suggested that international investors can engage in arbitrage and hedging using China's non-ferrous metal futures market.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.1-16
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• 2023

Purpose Despite the ongoing digital transformation, it is not clear whether emerging market firms follow their manufacturing FDI path in the emerging digital industries. This paper examines how digital orientation affects the location strategies in internationalization and how the existing innovation capacities moderate the link between digital orientation and the location strategies. Design/methodology/approach This study chooses the Chinese setting for research design because digital transformation is already prevalent in the society and the cases of outward expansion are salient among the emerging markets. It uses the panel dataset of 976 Chinese listed firms that consists of 6,648 observations spanning from 2007 to 2017. Ordinary least square regression is used for the statistical approach with a one-year lag in the model. Findings Digital orientation increases a likelihood of emerging multinationals' entries in developed countries, and a high level of innovative capacities strengthens the link. Two groups seem to prefer entries in developed countries: firms with a high level of digital orientation with a high level of innovative capacities and firms with a low level of digital orientation, if with a low level of innovative capacities. The former reflects the context of digital transformation and the latter hints at the tax avoidance or interests in real estate. Research implications or originality While emerging multinationals are known to prefer entries in developing countries for capacity arbitrage, our results forecast that their FDI strategies may have a drastic change as digital transformation deepens.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.85-101
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• 2022

Derivative-linked securities (DLS) is a type of derivatives that offer an agreed return when the underlying asset price moves within a specified range by the maturity date. The underlying assets of DLS are diverse such as interest rates, exchange rates, crude oil, or gold. A German 10-year bond rate-linked DLS and a USD-GBP CMS rate-linked DLS have recently become a social issue in Korea due to a huge loss to investors. In this regard, this paper accounts for the payoff structure of these products and evaluates their prices and fair coupon rates as well as risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Tail-Value-at-Risk (TVaR). We would like to examine how risky these products were and whether or not their coupon rates were appropriate. We use Hull-White Model as the stochastic model for the underlying assets and Monte Carlo (MC) methods to obtain numerical results. The no-arbitrage prices of the German 10-year bond rate-linked DLS and the USD-GBP CMS rate-linked DLS at the center of the social issue turned out to be 0.9662% and 0.9355% of the original investment, respectively. Considering that Korea government bond rate for 2018 is about 2%, these values are quite low. The fair coupon rates that make the prices of DLS equal to the original investment are computed as 4.76% for the German 10-year bond rate-linked DLS and 7% for the USD-GBP CMS rate-linked DLS. Their actual coupon rates were 1.4% and 3.5%. The 95% VaR and TVaR of the loss for German 10-year bond rate-linked DLS are 37.30% and 64.45%, and those of the loss for USD-GBP CMS rate-linked DLS are 73.98% and 87.43% of the initial investment. Summing up the numerical results obtained, we could see that the DLS products of our interest were indeed quite unfavorable to individual investors.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.35 no.3
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• pp.195-212
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• 2016

Utilizing intra-day volume weighted average price (VWAP) based on 1 minute return data of stocks traded on the Korean Stock Exchange, this paper examines and analyzes abnormal returns in reaction to patent listing disclosures as well as the cumulative abnormal returns, traded volumes, the interaction of VWAP spreads, the reaction of volumes, the reaction of VWAP spreads and the realized returns obtained from trading using an event driven arbitrage strategy. The results of the aforementioned research topics are follows. First, our analysis suggests that on average, 0.92% positive cumulative returns arise 1 minute after the patent listing disclosure announcement with high statistical significance, thereby reconfirming that the Korean stock market is a semi-strong form of the efficient market. Employing 3 separate panel tests differentiated by the size factor, we find that the abnormal returns of small sized stocks were less than the returns of medium sized stocks, which goes to support recent research findings suggesting that the size premium is no longer existent in the Korean stock market. Secondly, we show that among the event driven type strategies, the most outstanding realized returns are from the market making strategies. Furthermore, placing market order trades only at the bid or ask price resulted in negative returns. This implies that strategies utilizing a combination of market orders and limit orders, order cancelations ratios and order flows can enhance realized returns.