• 제목/요약/키워드: Solar radiation prediction

검색결과 141건 처리시간 0.025초

지형효과를 고려한 강원지역의 태양광 발전지도 개발 (The Development of Photovoltaic Resources Map Concerning Topographical Effect on Gangwon Region)

  • 지준범;조일성;이규태;이원학
    • 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
    • /
    • 제31권2호
    • /
    • pp.37-46
    • /
    • 2011
  • The GWNU (Gangnung-Wonju national university) solar radiation model was developed with radiative transfer theory by Iqbal and it is applied the NREL (National Research Energy Laboratory). Input data were collected and accomplished from the model prediction data from RDAPS (Regional Data Assimilated Prediction Model), satellite data and ground observations. And GWNU solar model calculates not only horizontal surface but also complicated terrain surface. Also, We collected the statistical data related on photovoltaic power generation of the Korean Peninsula and analyzed about photovoltaic power efficiency of the Gangwon region. Finally, the solar energy resource and photovoltaic generation possibility map established up with 4 km, 1 km and 180 m resolution on Gangwon region based on actual equipment from Shinan solar plant,statistical data for photovoltaic and complicated topographical effect.

데이터 시각화 및 탐색적 데이터 분석을 통한 태양광 에너지 예측용 특징벡터 추출 (Feature Vector Extraction for Solar Energy Prediction through Data Visualization and Exploratory Data Analysis)

  • 정원석;함경선;박문규;정영화;서정욱
    • 한국정보통신학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국정보통신학회 2017년도 추계학술대회
    • /
    • pp.514-517
    • /
    • 2017
  • 태양광 발전 시스템에서 전력 생산은 기상 상태에 따라 크게 영향을 받으므로 안정적인 부하 운용을 위해 태양광 에너지에 대한 예측이 필수적이다. 따라서 태양광 에너지 예측을 위한 기계학습 알고리즘의 입력으로 기상 상태에 대한 데이터가 필요하다. 본 논문에서는 알고리즘에 대한 입력 데이터로 표면의 3시간 동안 누적된 강수량, 상 하향 장파 복사선 평균, 상 하향 단파 복사선 평균, 지상 2m에서의 3시간 동안 온도, 표면에서의 온도 등 15가지 종류의 기상 데이터를 사용한다. 기상 데이터의 통계적 특성을 파악하고 상관관계를 분석하여 태양광 에너지와 70% 이상의 높은 상관성을 갖는 하향 단파 복사선 평균과 상향 단파 복사선 평균을 특징벡터의 주요 원소로 추출하였다.

  • PDF

창의 기울기에 따른 건축물 에너지 소비량 예측 (The Prediction of Energy Consumption by Window Inclination)

  • 조성우
    • 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
    • /
    • 제31권5호
    • /
    • pp.27-32
    • /
    • 2011
  • Most of domestic building generally don't have fixed shading devices considering of appearance and aesthetic issues. In this study is suggested that tilt window simultaneously has a role of shading and blocking solar radiation. The tilt window thermal performance is investigated by relation ship between inclination and heating cooling road. As comparing vertical window with $5^{\circ}$ and $7^{\circ}$ of tilt window respectively, the heating load is increased by 3.6% and cooling load is reduced by 8.1% on $5^{\circ}$ tilt window and the heating load is increased by 5.3% and cooling load is reduced by 11.5% on $5^{\circ}$ tilt window. Especially, the total load of alternative tilt window is showed the reduction rate 2.6% and3.6% compared of vertical window. Therefore, the tilt window is possible to role of shading of solar radiation and reduction of heating and cooling load.

A novel SARMA-ANN hybrid model for global solar radiation forecasting

  • Srivastava, Rachit;Tiwaria, A.N.;Giri, V.K.
    • Advances in Energy Research
    • /
    • 제6권2호
    • /
    • pp.131-143
    • /
    • 2019
  • Global Solar Radiation (GSR) is the key element for performance estimation of any Solar Power Plant (SPP). Its forecasting may help in estimation of power production from a SPP well in advance, and may also render help in optimal use of this power. Seasonal Auto-Regressive Moving Average (SARMA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models are combined in order to develop a hybrid model (SARMA-ANN) conceiving the characteristics of both linear and non-linear prediction models. This developed model has been used for prediction of GSR at Gorakhpur, situated in the northern region of India. The proposed model is beneficial for the univariate forecasting. Along with this model, we have also used Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA), SARMA, ANN based models for 1 - 6 day-ahead forecasting of GSR on hourly basis. It has been found that the proposed model presents least RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) and produces best forecasting results among all the models considered in the present study. As an application, the comparison between the forecasted one and the energy produced by the grid connected PV plant installed on the parking stands of the University shows the superiority of the proposed model.

스털링엔진 태양열 발전시스템의 성능예측(집열기.수열기 및 엔진.발전기 시스템의 조화) (Performance Prediction of a Solar Power System with Stirling Engine (Matching Collector/Receiver with Engine/Generator Systems))

  • 배명환;장형성
    • 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 대한기계학회 2001년도 추계학술대회논문집B
    • /
    • pp.794-799
    • /
    • 2001
  • The simulation analyses of a solar power system with monolithic concentrator by using a stirling engine are carried out to predict the system performance in four test sites. The site has different intensities and distributions of direct solar radiation respectively. Seoul, Pusan and Cheju in Korea, and Naha in Japan are selected as test sites. To accomplish the same demand of a 25 kW output that the power level of a system has, it needs to take the matching of collector/receiver with engine/generator systems. In such a case, also, the size of the collector is sometimes adjusted. In this study, the diameter of the collector is decided by using the solar radiation of design point, which is defined as the sum of average and standard deviation $\sigma$ of maximum direct solar radiation distribution for a day during a year in the respective test site. It is found that the average power output during the system operating time in the case of slope error ${\sigma}_s=2.5$ is within the range of 9 to 13 kW.

  • PDF

태양복사모델(SOLWEIG)의 복사플럭스 자료를 활용한 노면온도 예측: 서울시 내부순환로 대상 (Predicting Road Surface Temperature using Solar Radiation Data from SOLWEIG(SOlar and LongWave Environmental Irradiance Geometry-model): Focused on Naebu Expressway in Seoul)

  • 안숙희;권혁기;양호진;이근희;이채연
    • 한국지리정보학회지
    • /
    • 제23권4호
    • /
    • pp.156-172
    • /
    • 2020
  • 본 연구는 대상도로인 내부순환로에 대해 태양복사모델(SOlar and LongWave Environmental Irradiance Geometry-model, SOLWEIG)을 통해 산출한 도로의 그림자 패턴을 사용하여 항상 그늘이 지는 음영지역을 살펴보고, 열수지법을 기반으로 한 노면온도예측모델(road surface temperature prediction model, 이하 RSTPM)과 SOLWEIG 모델을 연계하여 고해상도의 태양복사정보를 활용한 도로의 노면온도를 예측하고자 하였다. 우선, 그림자 패턴 및 복사플럭스 산출의 정확도를 높이기 위하여 안개, 구름, 강수 등의 영향을 최소화할 수 있는 사례일을 선정하여, 고도 및 지형의 효과에 따른 그림자의 영향을 살펴보았다. 그 결과, 터널 입출구와 고도가 높은 지역에서 그림자 영역이 오래 지속되었고, 그림자의 영향을 많이 받는 구간의 복사량 감소가 뚜렷하게 나타났다. 이는 노면온도 예측결과에 반영되어 지형적으로 개방된 지점에서는 노면온도가 높게 예측되고, 고도가 높은 지점들은 그렇지 않은 지점에 비해 상대적으로 낮게 예측되었다. 본 연구의 결과는 겨울철 기상상황에 따른 도로 결빙구간을 예측하여 도로 관리자 및 운전자의 의사결정 자료로서의 활용이 기대된다.

Construction of Korean Space Weather Prediction Center: Space radiation effect

  • Lee, Jae-Jin;Cho, Kyung-Suk;Hwang, Jung-A;Kwak, Young-Sil;Kim, Khan-Hyuk;Bong, Su-Chan;Kim, Yeon-Han;Park, Young-Deuk;Choi, Seong-Hwan
    • 한국우주과학회:학술대회논문집(한국우주과학회보)
    • /
    • 한국우주과학회 2008년도 한국우주과학회보 제17권2호
    • /
    • pp.33.3-34
    • /
    • 2008
  • As an activity of building Korean Space Weather Prediction Center (KSWPC), we has studied of radiation effect on the spacecraft components. High energy charged particles trapped by geomagnetic field in the region named Van Allen Belt can move to low altitude along magnetic field and threaten even low altitude spacecraft. Space Radiation can cause equipment failures and on occasions can even destroy operations of satellites in orbit. Sun sensors aboard Science and Technology Satellite (STSAT-1) was designed to detect sun light with silicon solar cells which performance was degraded during satellite operation. In this study, we try to identify which particle contribute to the solar cell degradation with ground based radiation facilities. We measured the short circuit current after bombarding electrons and protons on the solar cells same as STSAT-1 sun sensors. Also we estimated particle flux on the STSAT-1 orbit with analyzing NOAA POES particle data. Our result clearly shows STSAT-1 solar cell degradation was caused by energetic protons which energy is about 700 keV to 1.5 MeV. Our result can be applied to estimate solar cell conditions of other satellites.

  • PDF

일기 예보와 예측 일사 및 일조를 이용한 태양광 발전 예측 (Photovoltaic Generation Forecasting Using Weather Forecast and Predictive Sunshine and Radiation)

  • 신동하;박준호;김창복
    • 한국항행학회논문지
    • /
    • 제21권6호
    • /
    • pp.643-650
    • /
    • 2017
  • 무한한 에너지원을 가진 태양광 발전은 기상 에 의존하기 때문에 발전량이 매우 간헐적이다. 따라서 태양광 발전량의 불확실성을 줄이고 경제성을 향상시키기 위하여 정확한 발전량 예측기술이 필요하다. 기상청은 3일간 기상정보를 예보하지만 태양광 발전 예측에 높은 상관관계가 있는 일조량과 일사량은 예보하지 않는다. 본 연구에서는 기상청에서 3일간 예보하는 기상요소인 기온, 강수량, 풍향, 풍속, 습도, 운량 등을 이용하여, 일조 및 일사량을 예측하였으며, 예측된 일사 및 일조량을 이용하여, 실시간 태양광 발전량을 예측하는 딥러닝 모델을 제안하였다. 결과로서 예측된 기상요소로 발전량을 예측하는 모델보다 제안 모델이 MAE, RMSE, MAPE 등의 오차율 지표에서 더 좋은 결과를 보여주었다. 또한, 기계 학습의 한 종류인 서포트 벡터 머신을 사용하는 것보다 DNN을 사용하는 것이 더 낮은 오차율 지표를 보여주었다.

Temperature distribution prediction in longitudinal ballastless slab track with various neural network methods

  • Hanlin Liu;Wenhao Yuan;Rui Zhou;Yanliang Du;Jingmang Xu;Rong Chen
    • Smart Structures and Systems
    • /
    • 제32권2호
    • /
    • pp.83-99
    • /
    • 2023
  • The temperature prediction approaches of three important locations in an operational longitudinal slab track-bridge structure by using three typical neural network methods based on the field measuring platform of four meteorological factors and internal temperature. The measurement experiment of four meteorological factors (e.g., ambient temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, and humidity) temperature in the three locations of the longitudinal slab and base plate of three important locations (e.g., mid-span, beam end, and Wide-Narrow Joint) were conducted, and then their characteristics were analyzed, respectively. Furthermore, temperature prediction effects of three locations under five various meteorological conditions are tested by using three neural network methods, respectively, including the Artificial Neural Network (ANN), the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). More importantly, the predicted effects of solar radiation in four meteorological factors could be identified with three indicators (e.g., Root Means Square Error, Mean Absolute Error, Correlation Coefficient of R2). In addition, the LSTM method shows the best performance, while the CNN method has the best prediction effect by only considering a single meteorological factor.

부영양화해역의 내부생산효율에 대한 계절변동예측 (Prediction of Seasonal Variations on Primary Production Efficiency in a Eutrophicated Bay)

  • 이인철
    • 한국해양공학회지
    • /
    • 제15권4호
    • /
    • pp.53-59
    • /
    • 2001
  • The Primary Production of phytoplanktons produces organic matter in high concentration in eutrophicated Hakata Bay, Japan, even during the winter season in spite of low water temperature. Phytoplanktons are considered to have any biological capabilities to keep activities of photosynthesis under the unfavorable conditions, and this affects water quality of the bay. In this study, seasonal variations in primary production efficiency were predicted by using a simple box-type ecosystem model, which introduced the concept of efficiency for absorption of solar radiation energy in relation to growth of phytoplanktons under the low solar radiation intensity. According to the simulation result of primary production, it was organic pollution comes from dissolved organic carbon (DOC) throughout the year, DOC of which is originated from the primary production of phytoplanktons on biological response of the seasonal variation of ambient conditions.

  • PDF