• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2001년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.459-465
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• 2001

The Prefabricated Vertical Drain(PVD) method is most widely used technique to accelerate the consolidation process and to strengthen the weak clayey soil in situ. Uncertainty in the consolidation process via the Prefabricated Vertical Drain(PVD), and the effects of uncertainty on the design of PVDs, are investigated in this paper, Among the effect factors, the coefficient of horizontal(radial) consolidation, C$\sub$h/, is the most important and sensitivity analysis of the degree of consolidation with respect to the other effect factors are carried out. For the reliable determination of uncertain quantities, the laboratory and in-situ tests are carried out. Henceforth, probability analysis that take the uncertainty into account are executed and reliable design method is provided in practice.

• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지반공학회 2008년도 추계 학술발표회
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• pp.85-110
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• 2008

Ground investigation data to be used as a basis for geotechnical analysis and foundation design are usually troubled with large uncertainty, due to natural variability and limited number of data. Statistical methods can be a rational tool for handling such uncertain ground data, in particular with a view to the selection of characteristic values for estimating ground design parameters used in design. The characteristic values of soil properties for use in geotechnical design have oftenly based on not only a subjective judgment but also engineer's past acumulated experience. This paper discussed some statistical methods which can handle such intrinsic ground uncertainty data with a case design in a rational manner.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제3권2호
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• pp.153-167
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• 2011

Traditional design methods of bearing capacity of shallow foundations are deterministic in the sense that they do not explicitly consider the inherent uncertainty associated with the factors affecting bearing capacity. To account for such uncertainty, available deterministic methods rather employ a fixed global factor of safety that may lead to inappropriate bearing capacity predictions. An alternative stochastic approach is essential to provide a more rational estimation of bearing capacity. In this paper, the likely distribution of predicted bearing capacity of strip footings subjected to vertical loads is obtained using a stochastic approach based on the Monte Carlo simulation. The approach accounts for the uncertainty associated with the soil shear strength parameters: cohesion, c, and friction angle, ${\phi}$, and the cross correlation between c and ${\phi}$. A set of stochastic design charts that assure target reliability levels of 90% and 95%, are developed for routine use by practitioners. The charts negate the need for a factor of safety and provide a more reliable indication of what the actual bearing capacity might be.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.67-74
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• 1991

육상 섭취 경로에 따른 내부 피폭선량 계산 모델 KFOOD의 파라메터 불착실성 및 민감도를 몬테칼로법을 사용하여 수치 분석하였다. 쌀을 통한 섭취 경로의 경우 KFOOD 코드에 의한 예측치는 아주 보수적인 값을 나타내었다 모델에서 민감도가 큰 입력변수는 방사능의 침적속도와 식물전이제수였다.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제60권2호
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• pp.95-101
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• 2018

The objective of this study is to evaluate the liquefaction cyclic shear stress ratio considering the soil uncertainty. In this study, the probabilistic ground response analysis and the cyclic shear stress ratio analysis for the liquefaction potential evaluation are performed considering the soil variability. The statistical properties of input ground parameters were analyzed to investigate the parameters affecting the seismic response analysis. The Probabilistic analysis was carried out by Monte Carlo Simulation method. The ground response analysis was performed considering the soil variability and the probability distribution characteristics of the ground acceleration. The probability distribution of the peak ground acceleration by seismic characteristics was presented. The differences of liquefaction shear stress ratio results according to soil variability were compared and analyzed. The maximum acceleration of the ground by the deterministic method was analyzed to be overestimation of the ground amplification phenomenon. Also, the shear stress ratio was overestimated.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.39-50
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• 2017

Displacement response and corresponding maximum response energy of structures are key parameters to assess the dynamic effect or even more destructive structural damage of the structures. By employing them, this research has compared the structural responses of jacket supported offshore wind turbine (OWT) subjected to seismic excitations apprehending earthquake incidence, when (a) soil-structure interaction (SSI) has been ignored and (b) SSI has been considered. The effect of earthquakes under arbitrary angle of excitation on the OWT has been investigated by means of the energy based wavelet transformation method. Displacement based fragility analysis is then utilized to convey the probability of exceedance of the OWT at different soil site conditions. The results show that the uncertainty arises due to multi-component seismic excitations along with the diminution trend of shear wave velocity of soil and it tends to reduce the efficiency of the OWT to stand against the ground motions.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2018년도 학술발표회
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• pp.156-156
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• 2018

The subbasin spatial scale can affect a hydrological simulation result. The objective of this study was to investigate an appropriate subbasin spatial scale for reproducing the different flow phases with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Moreover, this study addressed the total hydrologic model uncertainty using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method. The hydrologic modelling uncertainty analysis revealed that the courser subbasin spatial scale provided a relatively better coverage of most of the observations by the 95PPU. On the other hand, the finer subbasin spatial scale produced the best single simulation output closer to the observation. Moreover, most of the observed high flows were enveloped by the 95PPU while this did not happen for the low flows. The overall average performance improvement through an appropriate subbasin spatial scale for reproducing the different flow phases in the Yongdam and Gilgelabay watersheds were found to be 36% and 53%, respectively. It is, therefore, a worth that to put more effort in reproducing the different flow phases by investigating an appropriate subbasin spatial scale to improve our understanding about the frequency and magnitude of the different flow phases.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2023년도 학술발표회
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• pp.326-326
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• 2023

본 연구에서는 유역 내 다른 년도 관측 유량 데이터를 이용한 매개변수 최적화를 수행한 후, 최적화된 매개변수에 따라 다르게 추정된 유량 데이터를 이용해 발생하는 수문학적 가뭄 불확실성 분석을 수행하였다. 수문 모형은 장기 강우-유출분석에 주로 사용되는 Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) 모형을 이용하였으며, Symmetric uncertainty을 이용해 불확실성 분석을 수행하였다. 모형 매개변수 최적화는 SWAT-CUP을 이용해 영산강 유역의 과거 1999년부터 2022년까지의관측 유량 데이터로 수행하였다. 최적화된 매개변수에 따라 추정되는 연평균 유량은 최대 5.59%의 차이를 발생시켰으며, 계절 유량은 봄 (6.1%), 여름 (14.6%), 가을 (9.7%), 겨울 (46.1%)의 차이를 발생시켰다. 그 후, 수문학적 가뭄지수인 Streamflow Drought Index (SDI)을 이용해 일 단위가뭄과 월 단위 가뭄 분석을 수행하였다. 매개변수에 따른 일 단위 가뭄 분석은 연평균 가뭄 발생일수가 최대 25.2일까지 차이가 발생하였으며, 월 단위 가뭄 역시 최적화된 매개변수에 가뭄 심도와 발생이 다르게 분석되었다. 그 후, Symmetric uncertainty을 이용한 불확실성 분석은 최적화된 매개변수에 따라 다르게 산정된 가뭄지수의 불확실성을 확인할 수 있었다. 본 연구는 수문학적 가뭄 분석 시, 다양한 관측 유량 데이터를 이용한 매개변수 최적화를 수행한 후, 이를 이용한 유량추정의 필요성을 확인할 수 있었다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2023년도 학술발표회
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• pp.287-287
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• 2023

Surface water-groundwater interaction (SWGI) is an important hydrological process that influences both the quantity and quality of water resources. However, regional scale SWGI model calibration and uncertainty analysis have been a challenge because integrated models inherently carry a vast number of parameters, modeling assumptions, and inputs, potentially leaving little time and budget to explore questions related to model performance and forecasting. In this study, we have proposed the application of iterative ensemble smoother (IES) for uncertainty analysis and calibration of the widely used integrated surface-subsurface model, SWAT-MODFLOW. SWAT-MODFLOW integrates Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and a three-dimensional finite difference model (MODFLOW). The model was calibrated using a parameter estimation tool (PEST). The major advantage of the employed IES is that the number of model runs required for the calibration of an ensemble is independent of the number of adjustable parameters. The pilot point approach was followed to calibrate the aquifer parameters, namely hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, and specific yield. The parameter estimation process for the SWAT model focused primarily on surface-related parameters. The uncertainties both in the streamflow and groundwater level were assessed. The work presented provides valuable insights for future endeavors in coupled surface-subsurface modeling, data collection, model development, and informed decision-making.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.179-193
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• 1994

모든 설계는 정보가 불완전하고 또 불확실성 하에서 이루어지고 있어 재난을 초래할 수도 있다. 구조물 설계시에도 현행 결정론적인 설계방법은 구조물의 안전정도나 신뢰도를 나타내지 못하고 있다. 설계시 모든 사항들은 신뢰도 해석에 근거해 결정하는 것이 바람직하다. 토질에 있어서는 다른 구조재의 성질보다 불확실성이 더 크기 때문에 더 큰 문제를 내포하고 있어 신뢰도 해석에 의거한 설계방법의 연구가 절실한 형편이다. 주동토압에 관계되는 구조물의 신뢰도 해석이나 설계의 과정을 단순화할 수 있도록 확률변수의 수를 줄여 토질의 기본정수로부터 계산되는 토압을 하나의 확률변수로 간주하고 토압의 변동계수 및 분포형태를 구할 필요가 있다. 모의실험을 사용하여 사질토의 Rankine 주동토압들을 계산, 통계처리하고 중선형회귀법을 통해 기본 토질정수와 토압의 변동계수의 관계를 구할 수 있는 회귀식들을 제시하였고 각 기본 토질정수들이 토압의 변동계수에 미치는 영향을 분석하였으며 Pearson system을 이용하여 토압의 분포를 분석한 결과, 기본 토질정수들이 정규분포일 때 토압은 베타분포로 간주해도 무난할 것으로 나타났다.