• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.44 no.9
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• pp.711-720
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• 2011

SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was calibrated for the flow rate of the Deachung lake with a large area of 3108.29 $km^2$. Application of SWAT model requires significant number of input data and is prone to result in uncertainties due to errors in input data, model structure and model parameters. The SUFI-2 (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Ver. 2) program and GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) program in SWAT-CUP (SWAT-Calibration and Uncertainty Program) are used to select the best parameters for SWAT model. Optimal combination of parameter values was determined through 2,000 iterative SWAT model runs. The Nash-Sutcliffe values and $R^2$ values were 0.87 and 0.89 respectively indicating both methods show good agreements with observed data successfully. RMSE and MSE values also showed similar results for both programs. It seems the SWAT-CUP has a great practical appeal for parameter optimization especially for large basin area and it also can be used for less experienced SWAT model users.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.29-29
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• 2011

SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) 모형은 물리적 기반의 준분포형 강우-유출 모형으로서, 대규모의 복잡한 유역에서 장기간에 걸친 다양한 종류의 토양과 토지이용 및 토지관리 상태에 따른 유출과 유사 및 오염물질의 거동에 대한 토지관리 방법의 영향을 예측이 가능하여, 수자원 관리 계획 및 유역관리를 위한 의사결정 지원 등 그 적용 범위가 매우 광범위하다. 이러한 모형의 적용성 검증을 위해서는 매개변수 민감도 분석 및 검 보정, 예측 불확실성 분석을 필요로 한다. 최근 수문 모델의 불확실성을 분석하기 위한 다양한 기법들이 개발 되었는데, 본 연구는 충주댐 유역(6,581.1 m)을 대상으로 유역출구점의 실측 일 유출량 자료(1998~2003)를 바탕으로 SWAT 모형의 유출관련 매개변수(총 18개)에 대한 불확실성 분석을 실시하였다. 이때 사용된 분석 기법으로는 SUFI2 (Sequential Uncertainty FItting algorithm 2), GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation), ParaSol (Parameter Solution)등을 적용 하였다. 이러한 기법은 모두 SWAT-CUP (SWAT-Calibration Uncertainty Program, Abbaspour, 2007) 모형에 탑재되어있으며, 모형의 결과로써 검 보정, 매개변수의 민감도 분석, 각종 목적 함수 및 불확실성의 범위 등이 자동으로 산출 되므로 모형의 사용자가 불확실성 평가 기법의 분석 및 비교를 손쉽게 할 수 있다. 그 결과 대표적인 목적 함수인 결정 계수( $^2$)와 NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency)는 모두 0.65에서 0.92사이의 값을 나타내어 대체적으로 모의가 잘 이루어졌음을 알 수 있었다. 그러나 불확실성의 범위를 나타내는 지표인 p-factor 및 r-factor에서는 평가 기법 별로 그 차이가 확연하게 드러났다. 여기서 p-factor는 불확실성 범위에 실측치가 포함되는 비율이며, r-factor는 불확실성의 상대적인 범위로 각각 1과 0에 가까울수록 모의 기법의 성능이 우수함을 의미한다. 세 가지 알고리듬 중에서 SUFI2의 p-factor가 약 0.51로 가장 높게 나타났으며, ParaSol의 r-factor가 0.00으로 가장 작게 나타났다. 여기서 p-factor는 불확실성 범위에 실측치가 포함되는 비율이며, r-factor는 불확실성의 상대적인 범위를 의미한다. 본 연구의 결과는 SWAT 모형을 이용한 수문모델링에서 수문분석에 따른 예측결과의 불확실성을 정량적으로 평가함으로서, 모형의 적용성 평가 및 모의결과의 신뢰성 확보에 근거자료로 활용이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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• 2003.03a
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• pp.439-446
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• 2003

In this paper the model tests have been conducted and the results are compared with those by the theoretical methods to study the behaviors of the piled raft. The size of model box is 2.2m${\times}$2m${\times}$2m. The raft is made of rigid steel plate and piles made of steel pipes. Generally the bearing capacity of group piles is designed with only the pile capacities, and the bearing capacity of raft is ignored. But the uncertainty of pile-raft-soil interaction leads to conservative design ignoring the bearing effects of raft. In the case of considering the bearing capacity of raft, the simple sum of bearing capacity of raft and that of each pile cannot be the bearing capacity of piled raft. Because the pile-raft-soil interaction affects the behavior of piled raft. Thus the effects of pile-raft-soil interaction are very important in the optimal design. In this paper, the behaviors of piled raft are studied through model tests of 2${\times}$2, 2${\times}$3, and 3${\times}$3 pile groups. The spacing between piles is changed in the model tests. And the behaviors of free standing and piled raft are also studied.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.34 no.5
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• pp.1489-1504
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• 2014

This paper is aimed to suggest a site specific partial safety factor of offshore wind turbine (OWT) pile foundation design for the offshore wind turbine complex at a West-South mainland sea in Korea. International offshore wind design standards such as IEC, GL, DNV, API, ISO and EUROCODE were compared with each partial safety factor and resistance factor. Soil uncertainty analysis using a large number of soil data sampled was carried out, and their results were adapted to estimate partial safety factor of OWT pile foundation through reliability analyses. The representative partial safety factor has been estimated as 1.3. When a proposed partial factor is willing to use to other sites, it is recommended that further studies on code calibration are required to validate their accuracy using more site characterization data.

• Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.359-365
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• 2013

BACKGROUND: Methane ($CH_4$) emission is calculated using the default $CH_4$ emission factor as recommended by the International Panel on Climate Change(IPCC guidelines). However, the default emission factor has been derived using including the data from other countries having different soil and environmental conditions and may not reflect the real $CH_4$ emission rates in Korea. The objective of this study was to estimate the baseline emission factor of $CH_4$ in Korean paddy soils during rice cultivation. METHODS AND RESULTS: Methane emission patterns were characterized in four different paddy soils across country for a consecutive 3 years during the rice cultivation period. Rice plants were cultivated under continuous flooding and fertilized using the recommended chemical fertilization in Korea ($N-P_2O_5-K_2O$=90-45-57kg/ha). The mean $CH_4$ emission rate was 2.32 kg $CH_4$/ha/day and the uncertainty of the investigated data was 21.7%, with a valuable error range at 1.82-2.82 kg $CH_4$/ha/day with a 95% confidence interval. CONCLUSION(S): Conclusively, the Korean paddy soils' baseline emission factor of $CH_4$ is approximately 2.32 kg $CH_4$/ha/day and can be used to estimate the $CH_4$ emissions more exactly.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.158-164
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• 2008

Abstract Infiltration of rainfall that may lead to reduce resistance force due to reduction of matric suction and to increase driving force due to increase of self weight makes the slope fail. There are many specifications to make slope stable based on factor of safety. Although result of slope stability analysis satisfy the specifications, slope failures triggered by rainfall are frequently occurred in reality because slope stability analysis cannot consider uncertainty of each soil properties. This is why conventional analysis has limitation and development of alternative method is needed. So it is suggested to adopt the reliability analysis rather than design based on factor of safety into designing safer structure. Through the evaluation of handicaps for the factor of safety based design, calculation of soil properties by site investigation, and reliability analysis considering distribution of each soil properties, distribution of failure probability in railway slope is obtained. Then, Risk assessment of slopes in Korean railway is executed from the results. Damage loss and incoming loss are considered as the loss. Using these results, it is possible to make proper countermeasure or efficient maintenance.

• Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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• 2010.03a
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• pp.176-181
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• 2010

The evaluation of shear modulus (or shear wave velocity) profile of the site is very important in various fields of geotechnical engineering. In the field, there exist spatial variations of shear modulus that case uncertainty in the geotechnical analysis or design. So it is necessary to evaluate the spatial variation of shear wave velocities of the soil site. In this study, the HWAW method is applied to the determination of a 3-D Vs map of soil site. The HWAW method, which is based on harmonic wavelet transforms, has been developed to determine phase and group velocities of waves. The HWAW method uses only the signal portion of the maximum local signal/noise ratio to evaluate the phase velocity in order to minimize the effect of the noise. The field testing of this method is relatively simple and fast because only one experimental setup, which consists of one pair of receivers on the surface, is needed using a short receiver spacing setup (1~3m). These characteristics make it possible to determine detailed local Vs profile in the site with lateral Vs variation and to evaluate 3-D Vs map by performing a series of tests on the grid. To estimate the applicability of the proposed method, field tests were performed. Through field applications validity and applicability of the proposed method were verified.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.19-28
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• 2020

The spatial variability of geotechnical properties can lead to the uncertainty of settlement for frozen soil foundation around the oil pipeline, and it can affect the stability of permafrost foundation. In this paper, the elastic modulus, cohesion, angle of internal friction and poisson ratio are taken as four independent random fields. A stochastic analysis model for the uncertain settlement characteristic of frozen soil foundation around an oil pipeline is presented. The accuracy of the stochastic analysis model is verified by measured data. Considering the different combinations for the coefficient of variation and scale of fluctuation, the influences of spatial variability of geotechnical properties on uncertain settlement are estimated. The results show that the stochastic effects between elastic modulus, cohesion, angle of internal friction and poisson ratio are obviously different. The deformation parameters have a greater influence on stochastic settlement than the strength parameters. The overall variability of settlement reduces with the increase of horizontal scale of fluctuation and vertical scale of fluctuation. These results can improve our understanding of the influences of spatial variability of geotechnical properties on uncertain settlement and provide a theoretical basis for the reliability analysis of pipeline engineering in permafrost regions.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.25-35
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• 2017

Liquefaction is one of the major seismic damage, and several methods have been developed to evaluate the possibility of liquefaction. Recently, a probabilistic approach has been studied to overcome the drawback of deterministic approaches, and to consider the uncertainties of soil properties. In this study, the spatial variability of cone penetration resistance was evaluated using CPT data from three locations having different variability characteristics to perform the probabilistic analysis considering the spatial variability of soil properties. Then the random fields of cone penetration resistance considering the spatial variability of each point were generated, and a probabilistic analysis of liquefaction induced settlement was carried out through CPT-based liquefaction evaluation method. As a result, the uncertainty of soil properties can be overestimated when the spatial variability is not considered, and significant probabilistic differences can occur up to about 30% depending on the allowable settlement.

• Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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• v.16 no.6
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• pp.5-11
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• 2015

Recently the necessity of developing the Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) for shallow foundation has been raised to implement to the domestic design codes related to geotechnical engineering since the limit state design is requested as international technical standard for the foundation of structures. In this study, applicability of LRFD for shallow foundation on weathered soils was investigated and resistance factor for this case was proposed. The quantitative analyses on the uncertainty and resistance bias for shallow foundation on weathered soil ground were performed by collecting the statistical data about domestic case studies for design and construction of shallow foundation. Reliability analyses for shallow foundation were first performed using FDA (First-order Design value Approach) method. Resistance factors were calibrated using the load factors obtained from the specifications of shallow foundations on weathered soil ground. The influence of the load factors developed in this study on the resistance factors were discussed by comparing with the resistance factor obtained from using AASHTO load factors.