• Title/Summary/Keyword: Social Discount Rate

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Application of Risk Management to Forecasting Transportation Demand by Delphi Technique (Delphi기법을 통한 교통수요예측 Risk Management 적용 방안)

  • Chung, Sung-Bong;Yi, Su-Ho;Namkung, Baek-Kyu
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.1572-1581
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    • 2011
  • Since 'The Act on Private Investment of The Infrastructure' was established in 1994, private investment as well as government's investment has been active on transport infrastructure. But investment of transport infrastructure has more risks than others due to overforecast of transport demand for ensuring project validity, and cost uncertainty arising from financial crisis, commodity prices and so on. In the case of Incheon international airport express, after 2 years and 6 months, Incheon international airport express is opened, Korail take over equity stake in private investor due to the problems of MRG(Minimum Revenue Guarantee) be contracted with private investor. Not only that, in other case of Yong-in light rail, it is ongoing for legal disputes between Yong-in local government and private investor on account of opening delaying. On current Investment Assessment System of Transport Infrastructure, Risk Management system on investment of transport infrastructure is inadequate because Sensitivity Analysis in economic efficiency have been performed on the simple method which only changes benefits, expense and social discount rate. For this reason, this study analyze risks for investment of transport infrastructure demand forecast, and rise to the management practice for every particular item.

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Economic Analysis on the Small & Medium Business Public e-Procurement Information System Project (중소기업 공공구매 판로지원 종합정보시스템 구축사업의 경제성 분석)

  • Jeong, Hoon;Ahn, Jaekyoung
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.69-81
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    • 2018
  • This study performed an economic analysis and tested the viability of a public computerization project to create a comprehensive information system for public e-procurement for small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs). The study found that the estimated costs of the project included 4.3 billion won to build the system and 710 million won per year to maintain the system once it is built. The project's estimated total benefits amounted to 6.66 billion won per year, including 5.871 billion won per year in increased convenience for SMBs that use the system, 406 million won per year in benefits for public institutions, and 383 million won per year in benefits for the institution "A" to adopt the system. We used the contingent valuation method (CVM) to estimate the benefits to SMBs, which would be the main participants of the project. The survey found that the SMBs were willing to pay an average fee of 170,136 won. we conducted an economic analysis by applying a 5.5% social discount rate over an analysis period of 10 years and found a benefit-cost ratio of 5.02 and a net present value of 40.201 billion won, which indicated a very high economic viability of the project. The results of this study can be an important reference when deciding whether to pursue computerization projects in the public sector.

Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Farmer's Health Center Project (FHCP) in Rural Korea (농업인건강관리실 사업의 비용편익 분석)

  • Hwang, Dae-Yong;Kang, Kyeong-Ha;Lee, Soon-Sung;Ko, Jeong-Sook;Oh, Seung-Young
    • Journal of Agricultural Extension & Community Development
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.313-327
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    • 2006
  • This study aims to examine the operating status of the Farmer's Health Center Project and the validity of its business using the benefit-cost analysis. As the pilot project of the Rural Development Adminstration from 1996, a total of 884 Farmer's Health Centers were established until 2004. Internal information of the RDA management unit was used for the analysis. A questionnaire with an interview was also performed with 70 over 468 Centers that had been established from 2001 to 2004. Results were as follows. 1) The Center was mainly used by elderly over 60 years, which took 71.4%. Winter was the most popular season for visiting. 2) Approximately 71% of the manager of the Center pointed out the deficiency of fuel cost as the most difficulty in operating the Center. 3) Users were moderately satisfied with facility and the effect of its use, which took 3.5 point over 5 scale. 4) For the cost-benefit analysis on the Centers, both 5% of social discount rate and 15 years of use term were assumed. Subsequently, the Net Present Value was 3,134 million won, which certified the validity of the business.

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A Study on the Selection of a Bridge Structure Type Using DEA and LCC (DEA기법과 LCC개념을 활용한 교량형식 선정 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Han, Sam-Heui;Kim, Jong-Gil
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.101-111
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    • 2013
  • In this study, DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) was carried out on the four bridges, which have the same extension (L=1,615m), in order to select the most superior, economical method of construction using the LCC concept of each bridge structure in the case of the Ulsan-Pohang double track railway which is scheduled to be constructed. DEA models were analyzed with the CCR model, which was designed for the evaluation of relative efficiency of each model. The initial construction costs, maintenance costs, indirect costs (user costs + indirect loss of social costs), and life cycle costs were used as input variables, and average duration was applied as the output variable. LCC was applied to calculate the input variables, and to get the costs of LCC, 100 years of period and 4.83% of real discount rate were applied, and the costs are classified into initial construction, maintenance, user, and indirect loss of social cost. The analysis results showed that the Method 2 and 3 were evaluated as the most efficient, and the other alternatives were evaluated as the following order; Method 1, the default, and Method 4.

Burden of Cancers Related to Smoking among the Indonesian Population: Premature Mortality Costs and Years of Potential Life Lost

  • Kristina, Susi Ari;Endarti, Dwi;Prabandari, Yayi Suryo;Ahsan, Abdillah;Thavorncharoensap, Montarat
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.16
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    • pp.6903-6908
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    • 2015
  • Background: As smoking is the leading preventable cause of multiple diseases and premature cancer deaths, estimating the burden of cancer attributable to smoking has become the standard in documenting the adverse impact of smoking. In Indonesia, there is a dearth of studies assessing the economic costs of cancers related to smoking. This study aimed to estimate indirect mortality costs of premature cancer deaths and years of potential life lost (YPLL) attributable to smoking among the Indonesian population. Materials and Methods: A prevalence based method was employed. Using national data, we estimated smoking-attributable cancer mortality in 2013. Premature mortality costs and YPLL were estimated by calculating number of cancer deaths, life expectancy, annual income, and workforce participation rate. A human capital approach was used to calculate the present value of lifetime earnings (PVLE). A discount rate of 3% was applied. Results: The study estimated that smoking attributable cancer mortality was 74,440 (30.6% of total cancer deaths), comprised of 95% deaths in men and 5% in women. Cancers attributed to smoking wereresponsible for 1,207,845 YPLL. Cancer mortality costs caused by smoking accounted for USD 1,309 million in 2013. Among all cancers, lung cancer is the leading cause of death and economic burden. Conclusions: Cancers related to smoking pose an enormous economic burden in Indonesia. Therefore, tobacco control efforts need to be prioritized in order to prevent more losses to the nation. The data of this study are important for advocating national tobacco control policy.

A Sensitivity Analysis for Risk Management of Private Investment Projects - Focused on BTL Projects - (민자유치사업의 리스크 관리를 위한 민감요인 분석 - BTL 사업을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Sun-Kuk;Park, Tong-Kyu
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.7 no.1 s.29
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    • pp.168-175
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    • 2006
  • Since the partly changed 'Private Investment Act for Social Infrastructure Projects' set forth in January 2005, the number of BTL(Build-Transfer-Lease) projects offered to the market has rapidly increased. The scope of BTL projects offered covers not only legally defined facilities but several facilities for the private schools. A BTL project, by definition, is a way of project management that includes the entire process of development such as planning, design, construction and operation over the period of 20-30 years. As a result, various types of risk may happen at each stage of the project and it is extremely important to efficiently control the sensitive factors that affect the risk profiles of the project. The examples of the sensitive factors are construction cost, interest rate, discount rate, lease amount, rental fee, O&M cost and so on. This study examines the characteristics of these sensitivity factors, analyzes their impact on the project feasibility and suggests the alternatives to manage them efficiently.

Economic Valuation of the Creation Project of Snow Crab Spawning and Habitat Ground (대게 산란·서식장 조성사업의 경제성 평가: 울진·영덕군의 사례를 중심으로)

  • Kang, Seok-Kyu
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.19-45
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    • 2020
  • This study is to evaluate economic effect of the creation project of snow crab, Chionoecetes opilio, spawning and habitat ground in Uljin and Youngdeok county. The main results of this study are summarized as follows: first, 14,400 million won was invested in the creation project cost of Chionoecetes opilio spawning and habitat ground of Uljin and Youngdeok County from 2015 to 2020. Second, the creation project of Chionoecetes opilio spawning and habitat ground directly provides fishing benefits, festival benefits, research and development benefits and employment benefits. Third, on the basis of above benefits, the creation project of Chionoecetes opilio spawning and habitat ground has net present value of 29,900.53 million won, internal rate of return 16.9%, and benefit-cost of 2.91 under a 4.5% social discount rate. Also, the creation project creates 195 jobs. This indicates that the creation project of Chionoecetes opilio spawning and habitat ground not only contributes to the increase in the income of coastal fishery and fishing villages but also to the job making. The result of this study provides useful information to policy makers or project managers as it shows that the project to create spawning and habitat ground should be carried out in consideration of the resource and biological characteristics of individual fish and that economic assessment logic should also be developed based on this. Also, it proves that the project to create a snow crab spawning and habitat ground is a national and local infrastructure project that increases the actual fishing income in the region. At the same time, it maintains the reproducibility function of most fish species, along with enhancing the people's benefits such as fishing village tourism and marine product consumption. Moreover, it provides useful information on budgeting for the continuous development of snow crab spawning and habitat ground in the mid to long-term.

Economic Effect of the Creation Project of Octopus Ochellatus Spawning and Habitat Ground: the Case of Taean County (주꾸미 산란·서식장 조성사업의 경제적 효과 : 태안군의 사례)

  • Kang, Seok-Kyu
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.109-129
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    • 2018
  • This study is to evaluate economic effect of the creation project of Octopus Ochellatu spawning and habitat ground in Taean County. The main results of this study are summarized as follows: first, the creation project cost of Octopus Ochellatus spawning and habitat ground invested in Taean from 2015 to 2017 was 3,400 million won. Second, The creation project of Octopus Ochellatus spawning and habitat ground directly provides fishing benefits, recreational boat fishing benefits, festival benefits, research and development benefits, and employment benefits. Third, on the basis of above benefits, the creation project of Octopus Ochellatus spawning and habitat ground has a net present value of 14,478 million won, internal rate of return 60.8%, and benefit-cost of 5.03 under a 4.5% social discount rate. Also, the creation project creates 47 jobs. This indicates that the creation project of Octopus Ochellatus spawning and habitat ground contributes not only to the increase in the income of coastal fishery, recreational boat fishing business and fishing villages but also to the job making. In conclusion, with all these results, a project for making spawning grounds and habitats in the specified region gives species more numerically abundant and this gives more profits to fishermen in the coastal area. In addition, this project helps to make attractions to visitors or people who came to those specified regions to participate in events or have recreation, which means it improves profits to that fishing village and improve a settlement condition.

Estimation of the Optimal Harvest and Stock Assessment of Hairtail Caught by Multiple Fisheries (다수어업의 갈치 자원평가 및 최적어획량 추정)

  • Nam, Jongoh;Cho, Hoonseok
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.237-247
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    • 2018
  • This study aims to estimate optimal harvests, fishing efforts, and stock levels of hairtail harvested by the large pair bottom trawl, the large otter trawl, the large purse seine, the offshore long line, and the offshore angling fisheries by using the surplus production models and the current value Hamiltonian method. Processes of this study are as follows. First of all, this study estimates the standardized fishing efforts regarding the harvesting of the hairtail by the above five fishing gears based on the general linear model developed by Gavaris. Secondly, this study estimates environmental carrying capacity (k), intrinsic growth rate (r), and catchability coefficient (q) by applying the Clarke Yoshimoto Pooley (CY&P) model among various surplus production models. Thirdly, this study estimates the optimal harvests, fishing efforts, and stock levels regarding the hairtail by the current value Hamiltonian method, including the average landing price, the average unit cost, and the social discount rate. Finally, this study attempts a sensitivity analysis to figure out changes in optimal harvests, fishing efforts, and stock levels due to changes in the average landing price and the average unit cost. As results induced by the current value Hamiltonian method, the optimal harvests, fishing efforts, and stock levels regarding the hairtail caught by several fishing gears were estimated as 33,133 tons, 901,080 horse power, and 79,877 tons, respectively. In addition, from the results of the sensitivity analysis, first of all, if the average landing price of the hairtail constantly increases, the optimal harvests of it increase at a decreasing rate, and then harvests finally slightly decrease as a result of decreases in stock levels. Secondly, if the average unit cost of fishing efforts continuously increases, the optimal fishing efforts decreases, but optimal stock levels increase. Optimal harvests start climbing and then decrease continuously due to increases in the average unit cost. In summary, this study suggests that the optimal harvests (33,133 tons) were larger than actual harvests (25,133 tons), but the optimal fishing efforts (901,080 horse power) were much less than estimated standardized fishing efforts (1,277,284 horse power), corresponding to the average of the recent three years (2014-2016). This result implies that the hairtail has been inefficiently harvested and recently overfished due to excessive fishing efforts. Efficient management and conservation policies on stock levels need to be urgently implemented. Some appropriate strategies would be to include the hairtail in the Korean TAC species or to extend the closed fishing season for this species.

A Study on the Pre-feasibility study on the Cadastral Resurvey Project (지적재조사사업 예비타당성분석의 타당성 검토 - 경제성 분석을 중심으로 -)

  • Shin, Ji-Yoon;Kwak, Byung-Yong;Kim, Chang-Kee
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.61-78
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    • 2014
  • The Cadastral Resurvey Project received 'Ineligible' determination by the first Pre-feasibility study in 2010. This is a result of the AHP analysis based on the policy and the economy validity. Especially, economic validity test uses mainly the Benefit-Cost Analysis. B-C Analysis has enclosed the limit to estimate the benefit which have the external effect. This study concentrated on the limit of the estimation the benefit on the Pre-feasibility study.