• Title/Summary/Keyword: Small-sized business

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The Relations between Financial Constraints and Dividend Smoothing of Innovative Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (혁신형 중소기업의 재무적 제약과 배당스무딩간의 관계)

  • Shin, Min-Shik;Kim, Soo-Eun
    • Korean small business review
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.67-93
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this paper is to explore the relations between financial constraints and dividend smoothing of innovative small and medium sized enterprises(SMEs) listed on Korea Securities Market and Kosdaq Market of Korea Exchange. The innovative SMEs is defined as the firms with high level of R&D intensity which is measured by (R&D investment/total sales) ratio, according to Chauvin and Hirschey (1993). The R&D investment plays an important role as the innovative driver that can increase the future growth opportunity and profitability of the firms. Therefore, the R&D investment have large, positive, and consistent influences on the market value of the firm. In this point of view, we expect that the innovative SMEs can adjust dividend payment faster than the noninnovative SMEs, on the ground of their future growth opportunity and profitability. And also, we expect that the financial unconstrained firms can adjust dividend payment faster than the financial constrained firms, on the ground of their financing ability of investment funds through the market accessibility. Aivazian et al.(2006) exert that the financial unconstrained firms with the high accessibility to capital market can adjust dividend payment faster than the financial constrained firms. We collect the sample firms among the total SMEs listed on Korea Securities Market and Kosdaq Market of Korea Exchange during the periods from January 1999 to December 2007 from the KIS Value Library database. The total number of firm-year observations of the total sample firms throughout the entire period is 5,544, the number of firm-year observations of the dividend firms is 2,919, and the number of firm-year observations of the non-dividend firms is 2,625. About 53%(or 2,919) of these total 5,544 observations involve firms that make a dividend payment. The dividend firms are divided into two groups according to the R&D intensity, such as the innovative SMEs with larger than median of R&D intensity and the noninnovative SMEs with smaller than median of R&D intensity. The number of firm-year observations of the innovative SMEs is 1,506, and the number of firm-year observations of the noninnovative SMEs is 1,413. Furthermore, the innovative SMEs are divided into two groups according to level of financial constraints, such as the financial unconstrained firms and the financial constrained firms. The number of firm-year observations of the former is 894, and the number of firm-year observations of the latter is 612. Although all available firm-year observations of the dividend firms are collected, deletions are made in the case of financial industries such as banks, securities company, insurance company, and other financial services company, because their capital structure and business style are widely different from the general manufacturing firms. The stock repurchase was involved in dividend payment because Grullon and Michaely (2002) examined the substitution hypothesis between dividends and stock repurchases. However, our data structure is an unbalanced panel data since there is no requirement that the firm-year observations data are all available for each firms during the entire periods from January 1999 to December 2007 from the KIS Value Library database. We firstly estimate the classic Lintner(1956) dividend adjustment model, where the decision to smooth dividend or to adopt a residual dividend policy depends on financial constraints measured by market accessibility. Lintner model indicates that firms maintain stable and long run target payout ratio, and that firms adjust partially the gap between current payout rato and target payout ratio each year. In the Lintner model, dependent variable is the current dividend per share(DPSt), and independent variables are the past dividend per share(DPSt-1) and the current earnings per share(EPSt). We hypothesized that firms adjust partially the gap between the current dividend per share(DPSt) and the target payout ratio(Ω) each year, when the past dividend per share(DPSt-1) deviate from the target payout ratio(Ω). We secondly estimate the expansion model that extend the Lintner model by including the determinants suggested by the major theories of dividend, namely, residual dividend theory, dividend signaling theory, agency theory, catering theory, and transactions cost theory. In the expansion model, dependent variable is the current dividend per share(DPSt), explanatory variables are the past dividend per share(DPSt-1) and the current earnings per share(EPSt), and control variables are the current capital expenditure ratio(CEAt), the current leverage ratio(LEVt), the current operating return on assets(ROAt), the current business risk(RISKt), the current trading volume turnover ratio(TURNt), and the current dividend premium(DPREMt). In these control variables, CEAt, LEVt, and ROAt are the determinants suggested by the residual dividend theory and the agency theory, ROAt and RISKt are the determinants suggested by the dividend signaling theory, TURNt is the determinant suggested by the transactions cost theory, and DPREMt is the determinant suggested by the catering theory. Furthermore, we thirdly estimate the Lintner model and the expansion model by using the panel data of the financial unconstrained firms and the financial constrained firms, that are divided into two groups according to level of financial constraints. We expect that the financial unconstrained firms can adjust dividend payment faster than the financial constrained firms, because the former can finance more easily the investment funds through the market accessibility than the latter. We analyzed descriptive statistics such as mean, standard deviation, and median to delete the outliers from the panel data, conducted one way analysis of variance to check up the industry-specfic effects, and conducted difference test of firms characteristic variables between innovative SMEs and noninnovative SMEs as well as difference test of firms characteristic variables between financial unconstrained firms and financial constrained firms. We also conducted the correlation analysis and the variance inflation factors analysis to detect any multicollinearity among the independent variables. Both of the correlation coefficients and the variance inflation factors are roughly low to the extent that may be ignored the multicollinearity among the independent variables. Furthermore, we estimate both of the Lintner model and the expansion model using the panel regression analysis. We firstly test the time-specific effects and the firm-specific effects may be involved in our panel data through the Lagrange multiplier test that was proposed by Breusch and Pagan(1980), and secondly conduct Hausman test to prove that fixed effect model is fitter with our panel data than the random effect model. The main results of this study can be summarized as follows. The determinants suggested by the major theories of dividend, namely, residual dividend theory, dividend signaling theory, agency theory, catering theory, and transactions cost theory explain significantly the dividend policy of the innovative SMEs. Lintner model indicates that firms maintain stable and long run target payout ratio, and that firms adjust partially the gap between the current payout ratio and the target payout ratio each year. In the core variables of Lintner model, the past dividend per share has more effects to dividend smoothing than the current earnings per share. These results suggest that the innovative SMEs maintain stable and long run dividend policy which sustains the past dividend per share level without corporate special reasons. The main results show that dividend adjustment speed of the innovative SMEs is faster than that of the noninnovative SMEs. This means that the innovative SMEs with high level of R&D intensity can adjust dividend payment faster than the noninnovative SMEs, on the ground of their future growth opportunity and profitability. The other main results show that dividend adjustment speed of the financial unconstrained SMEs is faster than that of the financial constrained SMEs. This means that the financial unconstrained firms with high accessibility to capital market can adjust dividend payment faster than the financial constrained firms, on the ground of their financing ability of investment funds through the market accessibility. Futhermore, the other additional results show that dividend adjustment speed of the innovative SMEs classified by the Small and Medium Business Administration is faster than that of the unclassified SMEs. They are linked with various financial policies and services such as credit guaranteed service, policy fund for SMEs, venture investment fund, insurance program, and so on. In conclusion, the past dividend per share and the current earnings per share suggested by the Lintner model explain mainly dividend adjustment speed of the innovative SMEs, and also the financial constraints explain partially. Therefore, if managers can properly understand of the relations between financial constraints and dividend smoothing of innovative SMEs, they can maintain stable and long run dividend policy of the innovative SMEs through dividend smoothing. These are encouraging results for Korea government, that is, the Small and Medium Business Administration as it has implemented many policies to commit to the innovative SMEs. This paper may have a few limitations because it may be only early study about the relations between financial constraints and dividend smoothing of the innovative SMEs. Specifically, this paper may not adequately capture all of the subtle features of the innovative SMEs and the financial unconstrained SMEs. Therefore, we think that it is necessary to expand sample firms and control variables, and use more elaborate analysis methods in the future studies.

Structural Adjustment of Domestic Firms in the Era of Market Liberalization (시장개방(市場開放)과 국내기업(國內企業)의 구조조정(構造調整))

  • Seong, So-mi
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.91-116
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    • 1991
  • Market liberalization progressing simultaneously with high and rapidly rising domestic wages has created an adverse business environment for domestic firms. Korean firms are losing their international competitiveness in comparison to firms from LDC(Less Developed Countries) in low-tech industries. In high-tech industries, domestic firms without government protection (which is impossible due to the liberalization policy and the current international status of the Korean economy) are in a disadvantaged position relative to firms from advanced countries. This paper examines the division of roles between the private sector and the government in order to achieve a successful structural adjustment, which has become the impending industrial policy issue caused by high domestic wages, on the one hand, and the opening of domestic markets, on the other. The micro foundation of the economy-wide structural adjustment is actually the restructuring of business portfolios at the firm level. The firm-level business restructuring means that firms in low-value-added businesses or with declining market niches establish new major businesses in higher value-added segments or growing market niches. The adjustment of the business structure at the firm level can only be accomplished by accumulating firm-specific managerial assets necessary to establish a new business structure. This can be done through learning-by-doing in the whole system of management, including research and development, manufacturing, and marketing. Therefore, the voluntary cooperation among the people in the company is essential for making the cost of the learning process lower than that at the competing companies. Hence, firms that attempt to restructure their major businesses need to induce corporate-wide participation through innovations in organization and management, encourage innovative corporate culture, and maintain cooperative labor unions. Policy discussions on structural adjustments usually regard firms as a black box behind a few macro variables. But in reality, firm activities are not flows of materials but relationships among human resources. The growth potential of companies are embodied in the human resources of the firm; the balance of interest among stockholders, managers, and workers of the company' brings the accumulation of the company's core competencies. Therefore, policymakers and economists shoud change their old concept of the firm as a technological black box which produces a marketable commodities. Firms should be regarded as coalitions of interest groups such as stockholders, managers, and workers. Consequently the discussion on the structural adjustment both at the macroeconomic level and the firm level should be based on this new paradigm of understanding firms. The government's role in reducing the cost of structural adjustment and supporting should the creation of new industries emphasize the following: First, government must promote the competition in domestic markets by revising laws related to antitrust policy, bankruptcy, and the promotion of small and medium-sized companies. General consensus on the limitations of government intervention and the merit of deregulation should be sought among policymakers and people in the business world. In the age of internationalization, nation-specific competitive advantages cannot be exclusively in favor of domestic firms. The international competitiveness of a domestic firm derives from the firm-specific core competencies which can be accumulated by internal investment and organization of the firm. Second, government must build up a solid infrastructure of production factors including capital, technology, manpower, and information. Structural adjustment often entails bankruptcies and partial waste of resources. However, it is desirable for the government not to try to sustain marginal businesses, but to support the diversification or restructuring of businesses by assisting in factor creation. Institutional support for venture businesses needs to be improved, especially in the financing system since many investment projects in venture businesses are highly risky, even though they are very promising. The proportion of low-value added production processes and declining industries should be reduced by promoting foreign direct investment and factory automation. Moreover, one cannot over-emphasize the importance of future-oriented labor policies to be based on the new paradigm of understanding firm activities. The old laws and instititutions related to labor unions need to be reformed. Third, government must improve the regimes related to money, banking, and the tax system to change business practices dependent on government protection or undesirable in view of the evolution of the Korean economy as a whole. To prevent rational business decisions from contradicting to the interest of the economy as a whole, government should influence the business environment, not the business itself.

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Some lessons from German startup policies (독일의 창업정책과 정책적 시사점)

  • Kim, Young-woo
    • Journal of Venture Innovation
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.49-65
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    • 2018
  • For a long time the German economy was primarily defined by large corporations and thriving small and medium-sized enterprises. Since about 2005 a second strand has started to emerge and it is one which is becoming increasingly important and is creating jobs - start-ups in the digital sector. This start-up activity is taking an important role in Germany's economic development: Start-up companies spawn innovations and create jobs, thus promoting the concept of competition. In general "start-up" refers to digitally-driven companies that are not more than five years old. Germany's start-up policy consists of three main parts. First of all, Germany has the characteristics of technology-based start-ups. The Hartz reform since 2002 has shown its focus on technology-based start-ups. In particular, it is the most appropriate for a start-up company to take the role of a new technology company to respond to changes in the global industrial structure. Second, it is approaching from a long-term perspective. In this regard, the small business policy, including Germany's new business policy, is seen as a tradition that can be consistent and can make policy decisions based on the basics rather than following the times. Third, the government is implementing policies centered on demand. Germany's start-up policy is summarized as a technology-based policy and new job creation. The policy response is that the government seeks the best combination of policies by adapting them to the times from the broad trend of employment market policies. What is important here is that policies are made based on consumers, not suppliers, in the process of policy making and implementation. With the Digital Agenda 2020 the Federal government has likewise committed itself to preparing the digital economy for international competition and making Germany the "No. 1 digital growth country in Europe". Ever since 1998 the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) has awarded the "EXIST" start-up scholarship to students and graduates. The Ministry also invests in the High Tech start-up fund. Together with Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW) and 18 other investors from the world of business the seed investor promotes young technology companies. Germany offers start-ups a good infrastructure and lots of funding opportunities. Berlin is regarded as Europe's start-up capital and also attracts lots of international young entrepreneurs.

A study on the activation plan of domestic franchise companies third party logistics (국내 프랜차이즈 기업의 제3자 물류 활성화에 관한 연구 : 본아이에프 사례 중심으로)

  • Cho, Jun-ho;Lee, Sang-Youn
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.15-24
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    • 2011
  • Modern enterprises should concentrate their efforts on continuous improvements in focusing their development in the core areas of business and to reduce their expenses and to enhance the quality of service for customers. The enterprises should focus on their core business while outsourcing the non-core areas of business to external specialists for the purpose of reducing cost. In South Korea, the enterprises are becoming increasingly interested in outsourcing their logistics function, especially in using IT technologies to the 3PL. The underlying reason for this trend is because the logistics costs of Korean businesses are much higher than that of other advanced countries. This higher logistic costs weakens the price competitiveness of Korean companies in the overseas export markets and even dampening the balance of international trade. Domestically, the higher logistics costs have the effect of raising prices in the local markets and thus affecting the local economy. Therefore a solution is urgently needed to save the logistics costs for the Korean companies in the interest of increasing national competitiveness. Outsourcing to the 3PL is becoming an attraction solution to this problem. Thanks to the increasing supply of professional logistics companies, many of the enterprises are switching to the Third Party Logistics. Nevertheless the enterprises do not yet utilize the integrated third-party logistics services on a full scale. This study analyzes present conditions and problems of the domestic third-party logistics market and suggests directions for future development. To solve the problems in the domestic third-party logistics market, four actions are recommended. First there should be new supporting policies in the laws and regulations and a system for small and medium sized companies to grow. Solutions to structural problems such as abnormal multilevel merchandising, illegal operation of private cars, and freight dumping should be implemented concurrently. Furthermore, standards for new companies entry into the market should be enhanced to allow only the competitive distribution companies to enter the market. Second, development of variety of educational programs is needed through establishing human-resource development system and specialized formal educational institution focused on this market. Third, the third party distribution companies, which seek long-term relationships with the owners of goods, should endeavor to strengthen their communications capability. Fourth, adoption of high-tech distribution system and the advent of U-Logistics, making use of RFID is urgent. This study has the limitation of objectivity because it does not include various comparative case studies about companies relating to the Third Party Logistics and domestic franchise companies. However, this study is significant to the extent that it analyzes the general present conditions and the problems of domestic Third Party Logistics and suggests recommendations for revitalization of Third Party Logistics. For future studies, analyzing the successful cases of international third party logistics companies' empirical data and studying the application into domestic franchise companies would improve the objectivity of the results. This would assist the domestic third party logistics companies not only to perform excellent domestic logistics function but also to enter into the global market for international logistics.

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A Comparative Study on Failure Pprediction Models for Small and Medium Manufacturing Company (중소제조기업의 부실예측모형 비교연구)

  • Hwangbo, Yun;Moon, Jong Geon
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2016
  • This study has analyzed predication capabilities leveraging multi-variate model, logistic regression model, and artificial neural network model based on financial information of medium-small sized companies list in KOSDAQ. 83 delisted companies from 2009 to 2012 and 83 normal companies, i.e. 166 firms in total were sampled for the analysis. Modelling with training data was mobilized for 100 companies inlcuding 50 delisted ones and 50 normal ones at random out of the 166 companies. The rest of samples, 66 companies, were used to verify accuracies of the models. Each model was designed by carrying out T-test with 79 financial ratios for the last 5 years and identifying 9 significant variables. T-test has shown that financial profitability variables were major variables to predict a financial risk at an early stage, and financial stability variables and financial cashflow variables were identified as additional significant variables at a later stage of insolvency. When predication capabilities of the models were compared, for training data, a logistic regression model exhibited the highest accuracy while for test data, the artificial neural networks model provided the most accurate results. There are differences between the previous researches and this study as follows. Firstly, this study considered a time-series aspect in light of the fact that failure proceeds gradually. Secondly, while previous studies constructed a multivariate discriminant model ignoring normality, this study has reviewed the regularity of the independent variables, and performed comparisons with the other models. Policy implications of this study is that the reliability for the disclosure documents is important because the simptoms of firm's fail woule be shown on financial statements according to this paper. Therefore institutional arragements for restraing moral laxity from accounting firms or its workers should be strengthened.

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A Study of Cause of Employee Turnover and Countermeasures against Turnover in Shipping and Port Logistics Firms (중소항만물류기업의 이직원인 분석과 대책에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jae-Hun;Shin, Yong-John
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.545-552
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    • 2015
  • This study One of the key elements of corporate competitiveness in the modern world of unlimited competition is human resource management. The reason that the world's leading companies are devoting a lot of investment and effort for good human resource development and management is that human resource can impact firm survival. In particular, there is little research on the internal and external environmental stimuli and job stress in the employee of small business which are often led to turnover, while they have suffered from chronic shortage of manpower. The purpose of this study is to determine the turnover factors in the small logistics companies and contribute to stable maintenance of workforce, facilitating human resource management and minimizing turnover. This study empirically analyzed the factors of the turnover in the organization of logistics companies from Busan Port, South Korea, which became one of the national infrastructure and the fifth world largest harbor. The conclusion proposed the development and direction of the human resource management which could promote the job environment improving the turnover factors and creating sustainable work condition through conducting preventive measures. The results indicated that the highest turnover rates was found in the category of field work, and the highest turnover group was from the 'less than one year', which implies that high turnover rates after and during job training might be greater cost to the companies than early turnover. The most common reasons for the high employee turnover were 'excessive workload' and 'dissatisfaction with wages'. Followed reasons including 'troubles with managers' and 'failure in organizational adaptation' can be understood in line with worse working conditions of the small logistic companies. It turned out that the preventive programs of the logistic enterprises had little effect through 'incentives system' and 'improving wage system' which are mainly conducted. The human resource managers appreciated the importance of 'wage raise' and 'benefits improvement'. This study is aimed at contributing to efficient human resource management through understanding of the turnover causes and human resource managers applying preventive measures. In particular, this can benefit small port logistics companies securing competitiveness and promoting persistent growth and development.

Dynamic Changes of Urban Spatial Structure in Seoul: Focusing on a Relative Office Price Gradient (오피스 가격경사계수를 이용한 서울시 도시공간구조 변화 분석)

  • Ryu, Kang Min;Song, Ki Wook
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.11-26
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    • 2021
  • With the increasing demand for office space, there have been questions on how office rent distribution produces a change in the urban spatial structure in Seoul. The purpose of this paper is to investigate a relative price gradient and to present a time-series model that can quantitatively explain the dynamic changes in the urban spatial structure. The analysis was dealt with office rent above 3,306 m2 for the past 10 years from 1Q 2010 to 4Q 2019 within Seoul. A modified repeat sales model was employed. The main findings are briefly summarized as follows. First, according to the estimates of the office price gradient in the three major urban centers of Seoul, the CBD remained at a certain level with little change, while those in the GBD and the YBD continued to increase. This result reveals that the urban form of Seoul has shifted from monocentric to polycentric. This shows that the spatial distribution of companies has gradually accelerated decentralized concentration implying that the business networks have become significant. Second, contrary to small and medium-sized office buildings that have undertaken no change in the gradient, large office buildings have seen an increase in the gradient. The relative price gradients in small and medium-sized buildings were inversely proportional among the CBD, the GBD, and the YBD, implying their heterogeneous submarkets by office rent movements. Presumably, those differences in the submarkets were attributed to investment attraction, industrial competition, and the credit and preference of tenants. The findings are consistent with the hierarchical system identified in the Seoul 2030 Plan as well as the literature about Seoul's urban form. This research claims that the proposed method, based on the modified repeat sales model, is useful in understanding temporal dynamic changes. Moreover, the findings can provide implications for urban growth strategies under rapidly changing market conditions.

An Exploratory Study of business support policy by growth phases for Small and medium sized enterprises -Focused on Cheonan and Asan in ChungNam- (중소기업의 성장단계별 지원정책에 관한 탐색적 연구 -충청남도 천안·아산지역을 중심으로-)

  • Lee, Jae-Beom
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.2215-2224
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    • 2013
  • This study performed empirical analysis to estimate SMEs needs in terms of business support policy by growth stages(start-up growth expansion). The subject is the SMEs in Cheonan and Asan, ChungNam and the results are as follows. First, In the initial start-up stage, management plays a key role in dealing with money, labor force, markets and technology while running the organization is a key role of the management in the expansion stage. Major policies to help SMEs grow includes money provision needed in the start-up stage, domestic marketing assistance and the provision of human resources in the growth stage, and assistance in foreign marketing and R&D in the expansion stage. Second, To achieve markets businesses aim at entering the existing and niche markets in the initial phase, and creating new markets in the growth phase. Third, Labor force for technology, sales and management planning in the start-up stage, marketing in the growth stage, and labor force for production in the expansion stage are core man- power needed. Fourth, Money for technology development, securing land for factories, organizing man power, securing markets and running the company is needed in the initial and growth stages while fund for facility investment is needed to grow in the expansion stage. Five, Regarding technology, the initial stage needs technology related to new product development, renewing existing products, improving the existing manufacturing process or developing new manufacturing process, while the growth stage needs processing techniques, and the expansion stage needs technology for developing new manufacturing process. Sixth, Making supply contracts with conglomerates, SMEs and public institutions, and sales to foreign markets are ways for SMEs to grow sales. Seventh, What SMEs wish to get includes business incubating support, R&D assistance, information exchanges, practical use of the R&D results, merchandising support, help with the land to build factories and custom-made support for management in the foundation stage while the support they want to get in the growth stage and in the expansion stage is training assistance and trial production respectively.

Study on the Effect of CSV(Creating Shared Value) Authenticity on Employee's Job Satisfaction Mediated by the Perception of Legitimacy (CSV(공유가치창출)의 진정성이 정당성 지각을 통해 종업원 직무만족도에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Hwang, kumju;Lee, Ilhan;Jang, Doohwan
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.121-132
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    • 2015
  • This study by the authenticity of the CSV in social contribution activities and not giving a positive effect on job satisfaction of employees, as adjusted by the identification variables in the organization that were neglected during the research for the CSV its positive impact on job satisfaction the purpose is to verify whether this study has been carried out by a survey of employees of some medium-sized enterprises and large corporations to small businesses and worker being served on them, social contributions derived for the research activities of public interest and corporate profit activities classified and divided whether the legitimacy of the employees for social contribution activities that are embedded in its base in the perception of moral legitimacy and practical perceived legitimacy of these four variables were presented, and how these variables presented a positive effect on employee job satisfaction, control Job organizational changes saw equate to verify that controls are effective. As a result, first, the authenticity of the CSV is giving a positive effect on the activity of public interest've found that giving a positive effect on the perception of employees and the moral legitimacy, and job satisfaction of employees has showed that it does not affect, whichIt could not be verified because of the moderating effect between job satisfaction and perceived moral legitimacy. Second, CSVDML authenticity showed that a positive effect on the perception of practical legitimacy by giving employees a positive impact on corporate profit activity, which results significantly affected the job satisfaction of employees. And moderator of the organization identified has been proven that there is a moderating effect between job satisfaction and perceived practical justification. In order to improve employee job satisfaction by the public activities through this research, public service activities can be seen that the need for settlement of corporate culture that can impress an astute awareness of the strategic objectives of companies seeking employees.

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Bankruptcy Type Prediction Using A Hybrid Artificial Neural Networks Model (하이브리드 인공신경망 모형을 이용한 부도 유형 예측)

  • Jo, Nam-ok;Kim, Hyun-jung;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.79-99
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    • 2015
  • The prediction of bankruptcy has been extensively studied in the accounting and finance field. It can have an important impact on lending decisions and the profitability of financial institutions in terms of risk management. Many researchers have focused on constructing a more robust bankruptcy prediction model. Early studies primarily used statistical techniques such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and logit analysis for bankruptcy prediction. However, many studies have demonstrated that artificial intelligence (AI) approaches, such as artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees, case-based reasoning (CBR), and support vector machine (SVM), have been outperforming statistical techniques since 1990s for business classification problems because statistical methods have some rigid assumptions in their application. In previous studies on corporate bankruptcy, many researchers have focused on developing a bankruptcy prediction model using financial ratios. However, there are few studies that suggest the specific types of bankruptcy. Previous bankruptcy prediction models have generally been interested in predicting whether or not firms will become bankrupt. Most of the studies on bankruptcy types have focused on reviewing the previous literature or performing a case study. Thus, this study develops a model using data mining techniques for predicting the specific types of bankruptcy as well as the occurrence of bankruptcy in Korean small- and medium-sized construction firms in terms of profitability, stability, and activity index. Thus, firms will be able to prevent it from occurring in advance. We propose a hybrid approach using two artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the prediction of bankruptcy types. The first is a back-propagation neural network (BPN) model using supervised learning for bankruptcy prediction and the second is a self-organizing map (SOM) model using unsupervised learning to classify bankruptcy data into several types. Based on the constructed model, we predict the bankruptcy of companies by applying the BPN model to a validation set that was not utilized in the development of the model. This allows for identifying the specific types of bankruptcy by using bankruptcy data predicted by the BPN model. We calculated the average of selected input variables through statistical test for each cluster to interpret characteristics of the derived clusters in the SOM model. Each cluster represents bankruptcy type classified through data of bankruptcy firms, and input variables indicate financial ratios in interpreting the meaning of each cluster. The experimental result shows that each of five bankruptcy types has different characteristics according to financial ratios. Type 1 (severe bankruptcy) has inferior financial statements except for EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) to sales based on the clustering results. Type 2 (lack of stability) has a low quick ratio, low stockholder's equity to total assets, and high total borrowings to total assets. Type 3 (lack of activity) has a slightly low total asset turnover and fixed asset turnover. Type 4 (lack of profitability) has low retained earnings to total assets and EBITDA to sales which represent the indices of profitability. Type 5 (recoverable bankruptcy) includes firms that have a relatively good financial condition as compared to other bankruptcy types even though they are bankrupt. Based on the findings, researchers and practitioners engaged in the credit evaluation field can obtain more useful information about the types of corporate bankruptcy. In this paper, we utilized the financial ratios of firms to classify bankruptcy types. It is important to select the input variables that correctly predict bankruptcy and meaningfully classify the type of bankruptcy. In a further study, we will include non-financial factors such as size, industry, and age of the firms. Thus, we can obtain realistic clustering results for bankruptcy types by combining qualitative factors and reflecting the domain knowledge of experts.