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Econometric Analysis on Factors of Food Demand in the Household : Comparative Study between Korea and Japan (가계 식품수요 요인의 계량분석 - 한국과 일본의 비교 -)

  • Jho, Kwang-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Culture
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.371-383
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    • 1999
  • This report gave analysis of food demand both in Korea and Japan through introducing the concept of cohort analysis to the conventional demand model. This research was done to clarify the factors which determine food demand of the household. The traits of the new model for demand analysis are to consider and quantify those effects on food demand not only of economic factors such as expenditure and price but also of non-economic factors such as the age and birth cohort of the householder. The results of the analysis can be summarized as follows: 1) The comparison of the item-wise elasticities of food demand demonstrates that the expenditure elasticity is higher in Korea than in Japan and that the expenditure elasticity is -0.1 for cereal and more than 1 for eating-out in both countries. In respect to price elasticity, the absolute values of all the items except alcohol and cooked food are higher in the Korea than in Japan, and especially the price elasticities of beverages, dairy products and fruit are predominantly higher in Japan. In this way, both expenditure and price elasticities of a large number of items are higher in Korea than in Japan, which may be explained from the fact that the level of expenditure is higher in Japan than in Korea. 2) In both of Korea and Japan, as the householder grows older, the expenditure for each item increases and the composition of expenditure changes in such a way that these moves may be regarded as due to the age effect. However, there are both similarities and differences in the details of such moves between Korea and Japan. Those two countries have this trait in common that the young age groups of the householder spend more on dairy products and middle age groups spend more on cake than other age groups. In the Korea, however, there can be seen a certain trend that higher age groups spend more on a large number of items, reflecting the fact that there are more two-generation families in higher age groups. Japan differs from Korea in that expenditure in Japan is diversified, depending upon the age group. For example, in Japan, middle age groups spend more on cake, cereal, high-caloric food like meat and eating-out while older age groups spend more for Japanese-style food like fish/shellfish and vegetable/seaweed, and cooked food. 3) The effect of the birth cohort effect was also demonstrated. The birth cohort effect was introduced under the supposition that the food circumstances under which the householder was born and brought up would determine the current expenditure. Thus, the following was made clear: older generations in both countries placed more emphasis upon stable food in their composition of food consumption; the share of livestock products, oil/fats and externalized food was higher in the food composition of younger generation; differences in food composition among generations were extremely large in Korea while they were relatively small in Japan; and Westernization and externalization of diet made rapid increases simultaneously with generation changes in Korea while they made any gradual increases in Japan during the same time period. 4) The four major factors which impact the long-term change of food demand of the household are expenditure, price, the age of the householder, and the birth cohort of the householder. Investigations were made as to which factor had the largest impact. As a result, it was found that the price effect was the smallest in both countries, and that the relative importance of the factor-by-factor effects differed among the two countries: in Korea the expenditure effect was greater than the effects of age and birth cohort while in Japan the effects of non-economic factors such as the age and birth cohort of householder were greater than those of economic factors such as expenditures.

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A Study of Factors Associated with Software Developers Job Turnover (데이터마이닝을 활용한 소프트웨어 개발인력의 업무 지속수행의도 결정요인 분석)

  • Jeon, In-Ho;Park, Sun W.;Park, Yoon-Joo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.191-204
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    • 2015
  • According to the '2013 Performance Assessment Report on the Financial Program' from the National Assembly Budget Office, the unfilled recruitment ratio of Software(SW) Developers in South Korea was 25% in the 2012 fiscal year. Moreover, the unfilled recruitment ratio of highly-qualified SW developers reaches almost 80%. This phenomenon is intensified in small and medium enterprises consisting of less than 300 employees. Young job-seekers in South Korea are increasingly avoiding becoming a SW developer and even the current SW developers want to change careers, which hinders the national development of IT industries. The Korean government has recently realized the problem and implemented policies to foster young SW developers. Due to this effort, it has become easier to find young SW developers at the beginning-level. However, it is still hard to recruit highly-qualified SW developers for many IT companies. This is because in order to become a SW developing expert, having a long term experiences are important. Thus, improving job continuity intentions of current SW developers is more important than fostering new SW developers. Therefore, this study surveyed the job continuity intentions of SW developers and analyzed the factors associated with them. As a method, we carried out a survey from September 2014 to October 2014, which was targeted on 130 SW developers who were working in IT industries in South Korea. We gathered the demographic information and characteristics of the respondents, work environments of a SW industry, and social positions for SW developers. Afterward, a regression analysis and a decision tree method were performed to analyze the data. These two methods are widely used data mining techniques, which have explanation ability and are mutually complementary. We first performed a linear regression method to find the important factors assaociated with a job continuity intension of SW developers. The result showed that an 'expected age' to work as a SW developer were the most significant factor associated with the job continuity intention. We supposed that the major cause of this phenomenon is the structural problem of IT industries in South Korea, which requires SW developers to change the work field from developing area to management as they are promoted. Also, a 'motivation' to become a SW developer and a 'personality (introverted tendency)' of a SW developer are highly importantly factors associated with the job continuity intention. Next, the decision tree method was performed to extract the characteristics of highly motivated developers and the low motivated ones. We used well-known C4.5 algorithm for decision tree analysis. The results showed that 'motivation', 'personality', and 'expected age' were also important factors influencing the job continuity intentions, which was similar to the results of the regression analysis. In addition to that, the 'ability to learn' new technology was a crucial factor for the decision rules of job continuity. In other words, a person with high ability to learn new technology tends to work as a SW developer for a longer period of time. The decision rule also showed that a 'social position' of SW developers and a 'prospect' of SW industry were minor factors influencing job continuity intensions. On the other hand, 'type of an employment (regular position/ non-regular position)' and 'type of company (ordering company/ service providing company)' did not affect the job continuity intension in both methods. In this research, we demonstrated the job continuity intentions of SW developers, who were actually working at IT companies in South Korea, and we analyzed the factors associated with them. These results can be used for human resource management in many IT companies when recruiting or fostering highly-qualified SW experts. It can also help to build SW developer fostering policy and to solve the problem of unfilled recruitment of SW Developers in South Korea.

A study on the air pollutant emission trends in Gwangju (광주시 대기오염물질 배출량 변화추이에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Gwang-Yeob;Shin, Dae-Yewn
    • Journal of environmental and Sanitary engineering
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1-26
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    • 2009
  • We conclude the following with air pollution data measured from city measurement net administered and managed in Gwangju for the last 7 years from January in 2001 to December in 2007. In addition, some major statistics governed by Gwangju city and data administered by Gwangju as national official statistics obtained by estimating the amount of national air pollutant emission from National Institute of Environmental Research were used. The results are as follows ; 1. The distribution by main managements of air emission factory is the following ; Gwangju City Hall(67.8%) > Gwangsan District Office(13.6%) > Buk District Office(9.8%) > Seo District Office(5.5%) > Nam District Office(3.0%) > Dong District Office(0.3%) and the distribution by districts of air emission factory ; Buk District(32.8%) > Gwangsan District(22.4%) > Seo District(21.8%) > Nam District(14.9%) > Dong District(8.1%). That by types(Year 2004~2007 average) is also following ; Type 5(45.2%) > Type 4(40.7%) > Type 3(8.6%) > Type 2(3.2%) > Type 1(2.2%) and the most of them are small size of factory, Type 4 and 5. 2. The distribution by districts of the number of car registrations is the following ; Buk District(32.8%) > Gwangsan District(22.4%) > Seo District(21.8%) > Nam District(14.9%) > Dong District(8.1%) and the distribution by use of car fuel in 2001 ; Gasoline(56.3%) > Diesel(30.3%) > LPG(13.4%) > etc.(0.2%). In 2007, there was no ranking change ; Gasoline(47.8%) > Diesel(35.6%) > LPG(16.2%) >etc.(0.4%). The number of gasoline cars increased slightly, but that of diesel and LPG cars increased remarkably. 3. The distribution by items of the amount of air pollutant emission in Gwangju is the following; CO(36.7%) > NOx(32.7%) > VOC(26.7%) > SOx(2.3%) > PM-10(1.5%). The amount of CO and NOx, which are generally generated from cars, is very large percentage among them. 4. The distribution by mean of air pollutant emission(SOx, NOx, CO, VOC, PM-10) of each county for 5 years(2001~2005) is the following ; Buk District(31.0%) > Gwangsan District(28.2%) > Seo District(20.4%) > Nam District(12.5%) > Dong District(7.9%). The amount of air pollutant emission in Buk District, which has the most population, car registrations, and air pollutant emission businesses, was the highest. On the other hand, that of air pollutant emission in Dong District, which has the least population, car registrations, and air pollutant emission businesses, was the least. 5. The average rates of SOx for 5 years(2001~2005) in Gwangju is the following ; Non industrial combustion(59.5%) > Combustion in manufacturing industry(20.4%) > Road transportation(11.4%) > Non-road transportation(3.8%) > Waste disposal(3.7%) > Production process(1.1%). And the distribution of average amount of SOx emission of each county is shown as Gwangsan District(33.3%) > Buk District(28.0%) > Seo District(19.3%) > Nam District(10.2%) > Dong District(9.1%). 6. The distribution of the amount of NOx emission in Gwangju is shown as Road transportation(59.1%) > Non-road transportation(18.9%) > Non industrial combustion(13.3%) > Combustion in manufacturing industry(6.9%) > Waste disposal(1.6%) > Production process(0.1%). And the distribution of the amount of NOx emission from each county is the following ; Buk District(30.7%) > Gwangsan District(28.8%) > Seo District(20.5%) > Nam District(12.2%) > Dong District(7.8%). 7. The distribution of the amount of carbon monoxide emission in Gwangju is shown as Road transportation(82.0%) > Non industrial combustion(10.6%) > Non-road transportation(5.4%) > Combustion in manufacturing industry(1.7%) > Waste disposal(0.3%). And the distribution of the amount of carbon monoxide emission from each county is the following ; Buk District(33.0%) > Seo District(22.3%) > Gwangsan District(21.3%) > Nam District(14.3%) > Dong District(9.1%). 8. The distribution of the amount of Volatile Organic Compound emission in Gwangju is shown as Solvent utilization(69.5%) > Road transportation(19.8%) > Energy storage & transport(4.4%) > Non-road transportation(2.8%) > Waste disposal(2.4%) > Non industrial combustion(0.5%) > Production process(0.4%) > Combustion in manufacturing industry(0.3%). And the distribution of the amount of Volatile Organic Compound emission from each county is the following ; Gwangsan District(36.8%) > Buk District(28.7%) > Seo District(17.8%) > Nam District(10.4%) > Dong District(6.3%). 9. The distribution of the amount of minute dust emission in Gwangju is shown as Road transportation(76.7%) > Non-road transportation(16.3%) > Non industrial combustion(6.1%) > Combustion in manufacturing industry(0.7%) > Waste disposal(0.2%) > Production process(0.1%). And the distribution of the amount of minute dust emission from each county is the following ; Buk District(32.8%) > Gwangsan District(26.0%) > Seo District(19.5%) > Nam District(13.2%) > Dong District(8.5%). 10. According to the major source of emission of each items, that of oxides of sulfur is Non industrial combustion, heating of residence, business and agriculture and stockbreeding. And that of NOx, carbon monoxide, minute dust is Road transportation, emission of cars and two-wheeled vehicles. Also, that of VOC is Solvent utilization emission facilities due to Solvent utilization. 11. The concentration of sulfurous acid gas has been 0.004ppm since 2001 and there has not been no concentration change year by year. It is considered that the use of sulfurous acid gas is now reaching to the stabilization stage. This is found by the facts that the use of fuel is steadily changing from solid or liquid fuel to low sulfur liquid fuel containing very little amount of sulfur element or gas, so that nearly no change in concentration has been shown regularly. 12. Concerning changes of the concentration of throughout time, the concentration of NO has been shown relatively higher than that of $NO_2$ between 6AM~1PM and the concentration of $NO_2$ higher during the other time. The concentration of NOx(NO, $NO_2$) has been relatively high during weekday evenings. This result shows that there is correlation between the concentration of NOx and car traffics as we can see the Road transportation which accounts for 59.1% among the amount of NOx emission. 13. 49.1~61.2% of PM-10 shows PM-2.5 concerning the relationship between PM-10 and PM-2.5 and PM-2.5 among dust accounts for 45.4%~44.5% of PM-10 during March and April which is the lowest rates. This proves that particles of yellow sand that are bigger than the size $2.5\;{\mu}m$ are sent more than those that are smaller from China. This result shows that particles smaller than $2.5\;{\mu}m$ among dust exist much during July~August and December~January and 76.7% of minute dust is proved to be road transportation in Gwangju.

Efficient Topic Modeling by Mapping Global and Local Topics (전역 토픽의 지역 매핑을 통한 효율적 토픽 모델링 방안)

  • Choi, Hochang;Kim, Namgyu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.69-94
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    • 2017
  • Recently, increase of demand for big data analysis has been driving the vigorous development of related technologies and tools. In addition, development of IT and increased penetration rate of smart devices are producing a large amount of data. According to this phenomenon, data analysis technology is rapidly becoming popular. Also, attempts to acquire insights through data analysis have been continuously increasing. It means that the big data analysis will be more important in various industries for the foreseeable future. Big data analysis is generally performed by a small number of experts and delivered to each demander of analysis. However, increase of interest about big data analysis arouses activation of computer programming education and development of many programs for data analysis. Accordingly, the entry barriers of big data analysis are gradually lowering and data analysis technology being spread out. As the result, big data analysis is expected to be performed by demanders of analysis themselves. Along with this, interest about various unstructured data is continually increasing. Especially, a lot of attention is focused on using text data. Emergence of new platforms and techniques using the web bring about mass production of text data and active attempt to analyze text data. Furthermore, result of text analysis has been utilized in various fields. Text mining is a concept that embraces various theories and techniques for text analysis. Many text mining techniques are utilized in this field for various research purposes, topic modeling is one of the most widely used and studied. Topic modeling is a technique that extracts the major issues from a lot of documents, identifies the documents that correspond to each issue and provides identified documents as a cluster. It is evaluated as a very useful technique in that reflect the semantic elements of the document. Traditional topic modeling is based on the distribution of key terms across the entire document. Thus, it is essential to analyze the entire document at once to identify topic of each document. This condition causes a long time in analysis process when topic modeling is applied to a lot of documents. In addition, it has a scalability problem that is an exponential increase in the processing time with the increase of analysis objects. This problem is particularly noticeable when the documents are distributed across multiple systems or regions. To overcome these problems, divide and conquer approach can be applied to topic modeling. It means dividing a large number of documents into sub-units and deriving topics through repetition of topic modeling to each unit. This method can be used for topic modeling on a large number of documents with limited system resources, and can improve processing speed of topic modeling. It also can significantly reduce analysis time and cost through ability to analyze documents in each location or place without combining analysis object documents. However, despite many advantages, this method has two major problems. First, the relationship between local topics derived from each unit and global topics derived from entire document is unclear. It means that in each document, local topics can be identified, but global topics cannot be identified. Second, a method for measuring the accuracy of the proposed methodology should be established. That is to say, assuming that global topic is ideal answer, the difference in a local topic on a global topic needs to be measured. By those difficulties, the study in this method is not performed sufficiently, compare with other studies dealing with topic modeling. In this paper, we propose a topic modeling approach to solve the above two problems. First of all, we divide the entire document cluster(Global set) into sub-clusters(Local set), and generate the reduced entire document cluster(RGS, Reduced global set) that consist of delegated documents extracted from each local set. We try to solve the first problem by mapping RGS topics and local topics. Along with this, we verify the accuracy of the proposed methodology by detecting documents, whether to be discerned as the same topic at result of global and local set. Using 24,000 news articles, we conduct experiments to evaluate practical applicability of the proposed methodology. In addition, through additional experiment, we confirmed that the proposed methodology can provide similar results to the entire topic modeling. We also proposed a reasonable method for comparing the result of both methods.

Analysis of the Time-dependent Relation between TV Ratings and the Content of Microblogs (TV 시청률과 마이크로블로그 내용어와의 시간대별 관계 분석)

  • Choeh, Joon Yeon;Baek, Haedeuk;Choi, Jinho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.163-176
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    • 2014
  • Social media is becoming the platform for users to communicate their activities, status, emotions, and experiences to other people. In recent years, microblogs, such as Twitter, have gained in popularity because of its ease of use, speed, and reach. Compared to a conventional web blog, a microblog lowers users' efforts and investment for content generation by recommending shorter posts. There has been a lot research into capturing the social phenomena and analyzing the chatter of microblogs. However, measuring television ratings has been given little attention so far. Currently, the most common method to measure TV ratings uses an electronic metering device installed in a small number of sampled households. Microblogs allow users to post short messages, share daily updates, and conveniently keep in touch. In a similar way, microblog users are interacting with each other while watching television or movies, or visiting a new place. In order to measure TV ratings, some features are significant during certain hours of the day, or days of the week, whereas these same features are meaningless during other time periods. Thus, the importance of features can change during the day, and a model capturing the time sensitive relevance is required to estimate TV ratings. Therefore, modeling time-related characteristics of features should be a key when measuring the TV ratings through microblogs. We show that capturing time-dependency of features in measuring TV ratings is vitally necessary for improving their accuracy. To explore the relationship between the content of microblogs and TV ratings, we collected Twitter data using the Get Search component of the Twitter REST API from January 2013 to October 2013. There are about 300 thousand posts in our data set for the experiment. After excluding data such as adverting or promoted tweets, we selected 149 thousand tweets for analysis. The number of tweets reaches its maximum level on the broadcasting day and increases rapidly around the broadcasting time. This result is stems from the characteristics of the public channel, which broadcasts the program at the predetermined time. From our analysis, we find that count-based features such as the number of tweets or retweets have a low correlation with TV ratings. This result implies that a simple tweet rate does not reflect the satisfaction or response to the TV programs. Content-based features extracted from the content of tweets have a relatively high correlation with TV ratings. Further, some emoticons or newly coined words that are not tagged in the morpheme extraction process have a strong relationship with TV ratings. We find that there is a time-dependency in the correlation of features between the before and after broadcasting time. Since the TV program is broadcast at the predetermined time regularly, users post tweets expressing their expectation for the program or disappointment over not being able to watch the program. The highly correlated features before the broadcast are different from the features after broadcasting. This result explains that the relevance of words with TV programs can change according to the time of the tweets. Among the 336 words that fulfill the minimum requirements for candidate features, 145 words have the highest correlation before the broadcasting time, whereas 68 words reach the highest correlation after broadcasting. Interestingly, some words that express the impossibility of watching the program show a high relevance, despite containing a negative meaning. Understanding the time-dependency of features can be helpful in improving the accuracy of TV ratings measurement. This research contributes a basis to estimate the response to or satisfaction with the broadcasted programs using the time dependency of words in Twitter chatter. More research is needed to refine the methodology for predicting or measuring TV ratings.

Development of the Accident Prediction Model for Enlisted Men through an Integrated Approach to Datamining and Textmining (데이터 마이닝과 텍스트 마이닝의 통합적 접근을 통한 병사 사고예측 모델 개발)

  • Yoon, Seungjin;Kim, Suhwan;Shin, Kyungshik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, we report what we have observed with regards to a prediction model for the military based on enlisted men's internal(cumulative records) and external data(SNS data). This work is significant in the military's efforts to supervise them. In spite of their effort, many commanders have failed to prevent accidents by their subordinates. One of the important duties of officers' work is to take care of their subordinates in prevention unexpected accidents. However, it is hard to prevent accidents so we must attempt to determine a proper method. Our motivation for presenting this paper is to mate it possible to predict accidents using enlisted men's internal and external data. The biggest issue facing the military is the occurrence of accidents by enlisted men related to maladjustment and the relaxation of military discipline. The core method of preventing accidents by soldiers is to identify problems and manage them quickly. Commanders predict accidents by interviewing their soldiers and observing their surroundings. It requires considerable time and effort and results in a significant difference depending on the capabilities of the commanders. In this paper, we seek to predict accidents with objective data which can easily be obtained. Recently, records of enlisted men as well as SNS communication between commanders and soldiers, make it possible to predict and prevent accidents. This paper concerns the application of data mining to identify their interests, predict accidents and make use of internal and external data (SNS). We propose both a topic analysis and decision tree method. The study is conducted in two steps. First, topic analysis is conducted through the SNS of enlisted men. Second, the decision tree method is used to analyze the internal data with the results of the first analysis. The dependent variable for these analysis is the presence of any accidents. In order to analyze their SNS, we require tools such as text mining and topic analysis. We used SAS Enterprise Miner 12.1, which provides a text miner module. Our approach for finding their interests is composed of three main phases; collecting, topic analysis, and converting topic analysis results into points for using independent variables. In the first phase, we collect enlisted men's SNS data by commender's ID. After gathering unstructured SNS data, the topic analysis phase extracts issues from them. For simplicity, 5 topics(vacation, friends, stress, training, and sports) are extracted from 20,000 articles. In the third phase, using these 5 topics, we quantify them as personal points. After quantifying their topic, we include these results in independent variables which are composed of 15 internal data sets. Then, we make two decision trees. The first tree is composed of their internal data only. The second tree is composed of their external data(SNS) as well as their internal data. After that, we compare the results of misclassification from SAS E-miner. The first model's misclassification is 12.1%. On the other hand, second model's misclassification is 7.8%. This method predicts accidents with an accuracy of approximately 92%. The gap of the two models is 4.3%. Finally, we test if the difference between them is meaningful or not, using the McNemar test. The result of test is considered relevant.(p-value : 0.0003) This study has two limitations. First, the results of the experiments cannot be generalized, mainly because the experiment is limited to a small number of enlisted men's data. Additionally, various independent variables used in the decision tree model are used as categorical variables instead of continuous variables. So it suffers a loss of information. In spite of extensive efforts to provide prediction models for the military, commanders' predictions are accurate only when they have sufficient data about their subordinates. Our proposed methodology can provide support to decision-making in the military. This study is expected to contribute to the prevention of accidents in the military based on scientific analysis of enlisted men and proper management of them.

Machine learning-based corporate default risk prediction model verification and policy recommendation: Focusing on improvement through stacking ensemble model (머신러닝 기반 기업부도위험 예측모델 검증 및 정책적 제언: 스태킹 앙상블 모델을 통한 개선을 중심으로)

  • Eom, Haneul;Kim, Jaeseong;Choi, Sangok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.105-129
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    • 2020
  • This study uses corporate data from 2012 to 2018 when K-IFRS was applied in earnest to predict default risks. The data used in the analysis totaled 10,545 rows, consisting of 160 columns including 38 in the statement of financial position, 26 in the statement of comprehensive income, 11 in the statement of cash flows, and 76 in the index of financial ratios. Unlike most previous prior studies used the default event as the basis for learning about default risk, this study calculated default risk using the market capitalization and stock price volatility of each company based on the Merton model. Through this, it was able to solve the problem of data imbalance due to the scarcity of default events, which had been pointed out as the limitation of the existing methodology, and the problem of reflecting the difference in default risk that exists within ordinary companies. Because learning was conducted only by using corporate information available to unlisted companies, default risks of unlisted companies without stock price information can be appropriately derived. Through this, it can provide stable default risk assessment services to unlisted companies that are difficult to determine proper default risk with traditional credit rating models such as small and medium-sized companies and startups. Although there has been an active study of predicting corporate default risks using machine learning recently, model bias issues exist because most studies are making predictions based on a single model. Stable and reliable valuation methodology is required for the calculation of default risk, given that the entity's default risk information is very widely utilized in the market and the sensitivity to the difference in default risk is high. Also, Strict standards are also required for methods of calculation. The credit rating method stipulated by the Financial Services Commission in the Financial Investment Regulations calls for the preparation of evaluation methods, including verification of the adequacy of evaluation methods, in consideration of past statistical data and experiences on credit ratings and changes in future market conditions. This study allowed the reduction of individual models' bias by utilizing stacking ensemble techniques that synthesize various machine learning models. This allows us to capture complex nonlinear relationships between default risk and various corporate information and maximize the advantages of machine learning-based default risk prediction models that take less time to calculate. To calculate forecasts by sub model to be used as input data for the Stacking Ensemble model, training data were divided into seven pieces, and sub-models were trained in a divided set to produce forecasts. To compare the predictive power of the Stacking Ensemble model, Random Forest, MLP, and CNN models were trained with full training data, then the predictive power of each model was verified on the test set. The analysis showed that the Stacking Ensemble model exceeded the predictive power of the Random Forest model, which had the best performance on a single model. Next, to check for statistically significant differences between the Stacking Ensemble model and the forecasts for each individual model, the Pair between the Stacking Ensemble model and each individual model was constructed. Because the results of the Shapiro-wilk normality test also showed that all Pair did not follow normality, Using the nonparametric method wilcoxon rank sum test, we checked whether the two model forecasts that make up the Pair showed statistically significant differences. The analysis showed that the forecasts of the Staging Ensemble model showed statistically significant differences from those of the MLP model and CNN model. In addition, this study can provide a methodology that allows existing credit rating agencies to apply machine learning-based bankruptcy risk prediction methodologies, given that traditional credit rating models can also be reflected as sub-models to calculate the final default probability. Also, the Stacking Ensemble techniques proposed in this study can help design to meet the requirements of the Financial Investment Business Regulations through the combination of various sub-models. We hope that this research will be used as a resource to increase practical use by overcoming and improving the limitations of existing machine learning-based models.

Investigation of Poultry Farm for Productivity and Health in Korea (한국에 있어서 양계장의 실태와 닭의 생산성에 관한 조사(위생과 질병중심으로))

  • 박근식;김순재;오세정
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.54-76
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    • 1980
  • A survey was conducted to determine the status of health and productivity of poultry farms in Korea. Area included Was Kyunggido where exist nearly 50% of national poultry population. From this area, 41 layer and 34 broiler farms covering 21 Countries were selected randomly for the survey. When farms were divided in the operation size, 95.1% of layer and 82.3% of broiler farms were classified as business or industrial level while the rest were managed in a small scale as part time job. Generally layer farms had been established much earlier than broiler farms. Geographically 10.7% of layer farms were sited near the housing area such as field foreast and rice field. No farms were located near the seashore. The distance from one farm from the other was very close, being 80% of the farms within the distance of 1km and as many as 28% of the farms within loom. This concentrated poultry farming in a certain area created serious problems for the sanitation and preventive measures, especially in case of outbreak of infectious diseases. Average farm size was 5,016${\times}$3.3㎡ for layers and 1,037${\times}$3.3㎡ for broilers. 89.5% of layer ana 70.6% of broiler farms owned the land for farming while the rest were on lease. In 60% of layer farms welters were employed for farming while in the rest their own labour was used. Majority of farms were equipped poorly for taking necessary practice of hygiene and sanitation. The amount of disinfectant used by farms was considerably low. As many as 97.6% of lave. farms were practised with Newcastle(ND) and fowl pox(F$.$pox) vaccine, whereas only 43.6% and 5.1% of broiler farms were practised with ND and F$.$pox vaccine, respectively. In 17-32.7% of farms ND vaccine was used less than twice until 60 days of age and in only 14.6% of farms adult birds were vaccinated every 4months. Monthly expense for preventive measures was over 200,000W in 32% of farms. Only 4.9-2.7% of vaccine users were soaking advice from veterinarians before practising vaccination, 85% of the users trusted the efficacy of the vaccines. Selection of medicine was generally determined by the farm owner rather than by veterinarans on whom 33.3% of farms were dependant. When diseases outbroke, 49.3% of farms called for veterinary hospital and the rest were handled by their own veterinarians, salesmen or professionals. Approximately 70% of farms were satisfied with the diagnosis made by the veterinarians. Frequency of disease outbreaks varied according to the age and type of birds. The livabilities of layers during the period of brooding, rearing ana adultwere 90.5, 98.9 and 75.2%, respectively while the livalibility of broilers until marketing was 92.2%. In layers, average culling age, was 533.3 day and hen housed eggs were 232.7. Average feed conversion rates of layers and broilers were 3.30 and 2.48, respectively. Those figures were considerably higher than anticipated but still far lower than those in developed countries.

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A study on the Success Factors and Strategy of Information Technology Investment Based on Intelligent Economic Simulation Modeling (지능형 시뮬레이션 모형을 기반으로 한 정보기술 투자 성과 요인 및 전략 도출에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.35-55
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    • 2013
  • Information technology is a critical resource necessary for any company hoping to support and realize its strategic goals, which contribute to growth promotion and sustainable development. The selection of information technology and its strategic use are imperative for the enhanced performance of every aspect of company management, leading a wide range of companies to have invested continuously in information technology. Despite researchers, managers, and policy makers' keen interest in how information technology contributes to organizational performance, there is uncertainty and debate about the result of information technology investment. In other words, researchers and managers cannot easily identify the independent factors that can impact the investment performance of information technology. This is mainly owing to the fact that many factors, ranging from the internal components of a company, strategies, and external customers, are interconnected with the investment performance of information technology. Using an agent-based simulation technique, this research extracts factors expected to affect investment performance on information technology, simplifies the analyses of their relationship with economic modeling, and examines the performance dependent on changes in the factors. In terms of economic modeling, I expand the model that highlights the way in which product quality moderates the relationship between information technology investments and economic performance (Thatcher and Pingry, 2004) by considering the cost of information technology investment and the demand creation resulting from product quality enhancement. For quality enhancement and its consequences for demand creation, I apply the concept of information quality and decision-maker quality (Raghunathan, 1999). This concept implies that the investment on information technology improves the quality of information, which, in turn, improves decision quality and performance, thus enhancing the level of product or service quality. Additionally, I consider the effect of word of mouth among consumers, which creates new demand for a product or service through the information diffusion effect. This demand creation is analyzed with an agent-based simulation model that is widely used for network analyses. Results show that the investment on information technology enhances the quality of a company's product or service, which indirectly affects the economic performance of that company, particularly with regard to factors such as consumer surplus, company profit, and company productivity. Specifically, when a company makes its initial investment in information technology, the resultant increase in the quality of a company's product or service immediately has a positive effect on consumer surplus, but the investment cost has a negative effect on company productivity and profit. As time goes by, the enhancement of the quality of that company's product or service creates new consumer demand through the information diffusion effect. Finally, the new demand positively affects the company's profit and productivity. In terms of the investment strategy for information technology, this study's results also reveal that the selection of information technology needs to be based on analysis of service and the network effect of customers, and demonstrate that information technology implementation should fit into the company's business strategy. Specifically, if a company seeks the short-term enhancement of company performance, it needs to have a one-shot strategy (making a large investment at one time). On the other hand, if a company seeks a long-term sustainable profit structure, it needs to have a split strategy (making several small investments at different times). The findings from this study make several contributions to the literature. In terms of methodology, the study integrates both economic modeling and simulation technique in order to overcome the limitations of each methodology. It also indicates the mediating effect of product quality on the relationship between information technology and the performance of a company. Finally, it analyzes the effect of information technology investment strategies and information diffusion among consumers on the investment performance of information technology.

The Characteristics and Performances of Manufacturing SMEs that Utilize Public Information Support Infrastructure (공공 정보지원 인프라 활용한 제조 중소기업의 특징과 성과에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Keun-Hwan;Kwon, Taehoon;Jun, Seung-pyo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.1-33
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    • 2019
  • The small and medium sized enterprises (hereinafter SMEs) are already at a competitive disadvantaged when compared to large companies with more abundant resources. Manufacturing SMEs not only need a lot of information needed for new product development for sustainable growth and survival, but also seek networking to overcome the limitations of resources, but they are faced with limitations due to their size limitations. In a new era in which connectivity increases the complexity and uncertainty of the business environment, SMEs are increasingly urged to find information and solve networking problems. In order to solve these problems, the government funded research institutes plays an important role and duty to solve the information asymmetry problem of SMEs. The purpose of this study is to identify the differentiating characteristics of SMEs that utilize the public information support infrastructure provided by SMEs to enhance the innovation capacity of SMEs, and how they contribute to corporate performance. We argue that we need an infrastructure for providing information support to SMEs as part of this effort to strengthen of the role of government funded institutions; in this study, we specifically identify the target of such a policy and furthermore empirically demonstrate the effects of such policy-based efforts. Our goal is to help establish the strategies for building the information supporting infrastructure. To achieve this purpose, we first classified the characteristics of SMEs that have been found to utilize the information supporting infrastructure provided by government funded institutions. This allows us to verify whether selection bias appears in the analyzed group, which helps us clarify the interpretative limits of our study results. Next, we performed mediator and moderator effect analysis for multiple variables to analyze the process through which the use of information supporting infrastructure led to an improvement in external networking capabilities and resulted in enhancing product competitiveness. This analysis helps identify the key factors we should focus on when offering indirect support to SMEs through the information supporting infrastructure, which in turn helps us more efficiently manage research related to SME supporting policies implemented by government funded institutions. The results of this study showed the following. First, SMEs that used the information supporting infrastructure were found to have a significant difference in size in comparison to domestic R&D SMEs, but on the other hand, there was no significant difference in the cluster analysis that considered various variables. Based on these findings, we confirmed that SMEs that use the information supporting infrastructure are superior in size, and had a relatively higher distribution of companies that transact to a greater degree with large companies, when compared to the SMEs composing the general group of SMEs. Also, we found that companies that already receive support from the information infrastructure have a high concentration of companies that need collaboration with government funded institution. Secondly, among the SMEs that use the information supporting infrastructure, we found that increasing external networking capabilities contributed to enhancing product competitiveness, and while this was no the effect of direct assistance, we also found that indirect contributions were made by increasing the open marketing capabilities: in other words, this was the result of an indirect-only mediator effect. Also, the number of times the company received additional support in this process through mentoring related to information utilization was found to have a mediated moderator effect on improving external networking capabilities and in turn strengthening product competitiveness. The results of this study provide several insights that will help establish policies. KISTI's information support infrastructure may lead to the conclusion that marketing is already well underway, but it intentionally supports groups that enable to achieve good performance. As a result, the government should provide clear priorities whether to support the companies in the underdevelopment or to aid better performance. Through our research, we have identified how public information infrastructure contributes to product competitiveness. Here, we can draw some policy implications. First, the public information support infrastructure should have the capability to enhance the ability to interact with or to find the expert that provides required information. Second, if the utilization of public information support (online) infrastructure is effective, it is not necessary to continuously provide informational mentoring, which is a parallel offline support. Rather, offline support such as mentoring should be used as an appropriate device for abnormal symptom monitoring. Third, it is required that SMEs should improve their ability to utilize, because the effect of enhancing networking capacity through public information support infrastructure and enhancing product competitiveness through such infrastructure appears in most types of companies rather than in specific SMEs.