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Structural features and Diffusion Patterns of Gartner Hype Cycle for Artificial Intelligence using Social Network analysis (인공지능 기술에 관한 가트너 하이프사이클의 네트워크 집단구조 특성 및 확산패턴에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Sunah;Kang, Juyoung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.107-129
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    • 2022
  • It is important to preempt new technology because the technology competition is getting much tougher. Stakeholders conduct exploration activities continuously for new technology preoccupancy at the right time. Gartner's Hype Cycle has significant implications for stakeholders. The Hype Cycle is a expectation graph for new technologies which is combining the technology life cycle (S-curve) with the Hype Level. Stakeholders such as R&D investor, CTO(Chef of Technology Officer) and technical personnel are very interested in Gartner's Hype Cycle for new technologies. Because high expectation for new technologies can bring opportunities to maintain investment by securing the legitimacy of R&D investment. However, contrary to the high interest of the industry, the preceding researches faced with limitations aspect of empirical method and source data(news, academic papers, search traffic, patent etc.). In this study, we focused on two research questions. The first research question was 'Is there a difference in the characteristics of the network structure at each stage of the hype cycle?'. To confirm the first research question, the structural characteristics of each stage were confirmed through the component cohesion size. The second research question is 'Is there a pattern of diffusion at each stage of the hype cycle?'. This research question was to be solved through centralization index and network density. The centralization index is a concept of variance, and a higher centralization index means that a small number of nodes are centered in the network. Concentration of a small number of nodes means a star network structure. In the network structure, the star network structure is a centralized structure and shows better diffusion performance than a decentralized network (circle structure). Because the nodes which are the center of information transfer can judge useful information and deliver it to other nodes the fastest. So we confirmed the out-degree centralization index and in-degree centralization index for each stage. For this purpose, we confirmed the structural features of the community and the expectation diffusion patterns using Social Network Serice(SNS) data in 'Gartner Hype Cycle for Artificial Intelligence, 2021'. Twitter data for 30 technologies (excluding four technologies) listed in 'Gartner Hype Cycle for Artificial Intelligence, 2021' were analyzed. Analysis was performed using R program (4.1.1 ver) and Cyram Netminer. From October 31, 2021 to November 9, 2021, 6,766 tweets were searched through the Twitter API, and converting the relationship user's tweet(Source) and user's retweets (Target). As a result, 4,124 edgelists were analyzed. As a reult of the study, we confirmed the structural features and diffusion patterns through analyze the component cohesion size and degree centralization and density. Through this study, we confirmed that the groups of each stage increased number of components as time passed and the density decreased. Also 'Innovation Trigger' which is a group interested in new technologies as a early adopter in the innovation diffusion theory had high out-degree centralization index and the others had higher in-degree centralization index than out-degree. It can be inferred that 'Innovation Trigger' group has the biggest influence, and the diffusion will gradually slow down from the subsequent groups. In this study, network analysis was conducted using social network service data unlike methods of the precedent researches. This is significant in that it provided an idea to expand the method of analysis when analyzing Gartner's hype cycle in the future. In addition, the fact that the innovation diffusion theory was applied to the Gartner's hype cycle's stage in artificial intelligence can be evaluated positively because the Gartner hype cycle has been repeatedly discussed as a theoretical weakness. Also it is expected that this study will provide a new perspective on decision-making on technology investment to stakeholdes.

A Study on the Relationship Between Online Community Characteristics and Loyalty : Focused on Mediating Roles of Self-Congruency, Consumer Experience, and Consumer to Consumer Interactivity (온라인 커뮤니티 특성과 충성도 간의 관계에 대한 연구: 자아일치성, 소비자 체험, 상호작용성의 매개적 역할을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Moon-Tae;Ock, Jung-Won
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.157-194
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    • 2008
  • The popularity of communities on the internet has captured the attention of marketing scholars and practitioners. By adapting to the culture of the internet, however, and providing consumer with the ability to interact with one another in addition to the company, businesses can build new and deeper relationships with customers. The economic potential of online communities has been discussed with much hope in the many popular papers. In contrast to this enthusiastic prognostications, empirical and practical evidence regarding the economic potential of the online community has shown a little different conclusion. To date, even communities with high levels of membership and vibrant social arenas have failed to build financial viability. In this perspective, this study investigates the role of various kinds of influencing factors to online community loyalty and basically suggests the framework that explains the process of building purchase loyalty. Even though the importance of building loyalty in an online environment has been emphasized from the marketing theorists and practitioners, there is no sufficient research conclusion about what is the process of building purchase loyalty and the most powerful factors that influence to it. In this study, the process of building purchase loyalty is divided into three levels; characteristics of community site such as content superiority, site vividness, navigation easiness, and customerization, the mediating variables such as self congruency, consumer experience, and consumer to consumer interactivity, and finally various factors about online community loyalty such as visit loyalty, affect, trust, and purchase loyalty are those things. And the findings of this research are as follows. First, consumer-to-consumer interactivity is an important factor to online community purchase loyalty and other loyalty factors. This means, in order to interact with other people more actively, many participants in online community have the willingness to buy some kinds of products such as music, content, avatar, and etc. From this perspective, marketers of online community have to create some online environments in order that consumers can easily interact with other consumers and make some site environments in order that consumer can feel experience in this site is interesting and self congruency is higher than at other community sites. It has been argued that giving consumers a good experience is vital in cyber space, and websites create an active (rather than passive) customer by their nature. Some researchers have tried to pin down the positive experience, with limited success and less empirical support. Web sites can provide a cognitively stimulating experience for the user. We define the online community experience as playfulness based on the past studies. Playfulness is created by the excitement generated through a website's content and measured using three descriptors Marketers can promote using and visiting online communities, which deliver a superior web experience, to influence their customers' attitudes and actions, encouraging high involvement with those communities. Specially, we suggest that transcendent customer experiences(TCEs) which have aspects of flow and/or peak experience, can generate lasting shifts in beliefs and attitudes including subjective self-transformation and facilitate strong consumer's ties to a online community. And we find that website success is closely related to positive website experiences: consumers will spend more time on the site, interacting with other users. As we can see figure 2, visit loyalty and consumer affect toward the online community site didn't directly influence to purchase loyalty. This implies that there may be a little different situations here in online community site compared to online shopping mall studies that shows close relations between revisit intention and purchase intention. There are so many alternative sites on web, consumers do not want to spend money to buy content and etc. In this sense, marketers of community websites must know consumers' affect toward online community site is not a last goal and important factor to influnece consumers' purchase. Third, building good content environment can be a really important marketing tool to create a competitive advantage in cyberspace. For example, Cyworld, Korea's number one community site shows distinctive superiority in the consumer evaluations of content characteristics such as content superiority, site vividness, and customerization. Particularly, comsumer evaluation about customerization was remarkably higher than the other sites. In this point, we can conclude that providing comsumers with good, unique and highly customized content will be urgent and important task directly and indirectly impacting to self congruency, consumer experience, c-to-c interactivity, and various loyalty factors of online community. By creating enjoyable, useful, and unique online community environments, online community portals such as Daum, Naver, and Cyworld are able to build customer loyalty to a degree that many of today's online marketer can only dream of these loyalty, in turn, generates strong economic returns. Another way to build good online community site is to provide consumers with an interactive, fun, experience-oriented or experiential Web site. Elements that can make a dot.com's Web site experiential include graphics, 3-D images, animation, video and audio capabilities. In addition, chat rooms and real-time customer service applications (which link site visitors directly to other visitors, or with company support personnel, respectively) are also being used to make web sites more interactive. Researchers note that online communities are increasingly incorporating such applications in their Web sites, in order to make consumers' online shopping experience more similar to that of an offline store. That is, if consumers are able to experience sensory stimulation (e.g. via 3-D images and audio sound), interact with other consumers (e.g., via chat rooms), and interact with sales or support people (e.g. via a real-time chat interface or e-mail), then they are likely to have a more positive dot.com experience, and develop a more positive image toward the online company itself). Analysts caution, however, that, while high quality graphics, animation and the like may create a fun experience for consumers, when heavily used, they can slow site navigation, resulting in frustrated consumers, who may never return to a site. Consequently, some analysts suggest that, at least with current technology, the rule-of-thumb is that less is more. That is, while graphics etc. can draw consumers to a site, they should be kept to a minimum, so as not to impact negatively on consumers' overall site experience.

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Studies on the Varietal Difference in the Physiology of Ripening in Rice with Special Reference to Raising the Percentage of Ripened Grains (수도 등숙의 품종간차이와 그 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Su-Bong Ahn
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.14
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    • pp.1-40
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    • 1973
  • There is a general tendency to increase nitrogen level in rice production to insure an increased yield. On the other hand, percentage of ripened grains is getting decreased with such an increased fertilizer level. Decreasing of the percentage is one of the important yield limiting factors. Especially the newly developed rice variety, 'Tongil' is characterized by a relatively low percentage of ripened grains as compared with the other leading varieties. Therefore, these studies were aimed to finding out of some measures for the improvement of ripening in rice. The studies had been carried out in the field and in the phytotron during the period of three years from 1970 to 1972 at the Crop Experiment Station in Suwon. The results obtained from the experiments could be summarized as follows: 1. The spikelet of Tongil was longer in length, more narrow in width, thinner in thickness, smaller in the volume of grains and lighter in grain weight than those of Jinheung. The specific gravity of grain was closely correlated with grain weight and the relationship with thickness, width and length was getting smaller in Jinheung. On the other hand, Tongil showed a different pattern from Jinheung. The relationship of the specific gravity with grain weight was the greatest and followed by that with the width, thickness and length, in order. 2. The distribution of grain weight selected by specific gravity was different from one variety to another. Most of grains of Jinheung were distributed over the specific gravity of 1.12 with its peak at 1.18, but many of grains of Tongil were distributed below 1.12 with its peak at 1.16. The brown/rough rice ratio was sharply declined below the specific gravity of 1.06 in Jinheung, but that of Tongil was not declined from the 1.20 to the 0.96. Accordingly, it seemed to be unfair to make the specific gravity criterion for ripened grains at 1.06 in the Tongil variety. 3. The increasing tendency of grain weight after flowering was different depending on varieties. Generally speaking, rice varieties originated from cold area showed a slow grain weight increase while Tongil was rapid except at lower temperature in late ripening stage. 4. In the late-tillered culms or weak culms, the number of spikelets was small and the percentage of ripened grains was low. Tongil produced more late-tillered culms and had a longer flowering duration especially at lower temperature, resulting in a lower percentage of ripened grains. 5. The leaf blade of Tongil was short, broad and errect, having light receiving status for photosynthesis was better. The photosynthetic activity of Tongil per unit leaf area was higher than that of Jinheung at higher temperature, but lower at lower temperature. 6. Tongil was highly resistant to lodging because of short culm length, and thick lower-internodes. Before flowering, Tongil had a relatively higher amount of sugars, phosphate, silicate, calcium, manganese and magnesium. 7. The number of spikelets of Tongil was much more than that of Jinheung. The negative correlation was observed between the number of spikelets and percentage of ripened grains in Jinheung, but no correlation was found in Tongil grown at higher temperature. Therefore, grain yield was increased with increased number of spikelets in Tongil. Anthesis was not occurred below 21$^{\circ}C$ in Tongil, so sterile spikelets were increased at lower temperature during flowering stage. 8. The root distribution of Jinheung was deeper than that of Tongil. The root activity of Tongil evaluated by $\alpha$-naphthylamine oxidation method, was higher than that of Jinheung at higher temperature, but lower at lower temperature. It is seemed to be related with discoloration of leaf blades. 9. Tongil had a better light receiving status for photosynthesis and a better productive structure with balance between photosynthesis and respiration, so it is seemed that tongil has more ideal plant type for getting of a higher grain yield as compared with Jinheung. 10. Solar radiation during the 10 days before to 30 days after flowering seemed enough for ripening in suwon, but the air temperature dropped down below 22$^{\circ}C$ beyond August 25. Therefore, it was believed that air temperature is one of ripening limiting factors in this case. 11. The optimum temperature for ripening in Jinheung was relatively lower than that of Tongil requriing more than $25^{\circ}C$. Air temperature below 21$^{\circ}C$ was one of limiting factors for ripening in Tongil. 12. It seemed that Jinheung has relatively high photosensitivity and moderate thermosensitivity, while Tongil has a low photosensitivity, high thermosensitivity and longer basic vegetative phase. 13. Under a condition of higher nitrogen application at late growing stage, the grain yield of Jinheung was increased with improvement of percentage of ripened grains, while grain yield of Tongil decreased due to decreasing the number of spikelets although photosynthetic activity after flowering was. increased. 14. The grain yield of Jinheung was decreased slightly in the late transplanting culture since its photosynthetic activity was relatively high at lower temperature, but that of Tonil was decreased due to its inactive photosynthetic activity at lower temperature. The highest yield of Tongil was obtained in the early transplanting culture. 15. Tongil was adapted to a higher fertilizer and dense transplanting, and the percentage of ripened grains was improved by shortening of the flowering duration with increased number of seedlings per hill. 16. The percentage of vigorous tillers was increased with a denser transplanting and increasing in number of seedlings per hill. 17. The possibility to improve percentage of ripened grains was shown with phosphate application at lower temperature. The above mentioned results are again summarized below. The Japonica type leading varieties should be flowered before August 20 to insure a satisfactory ripening of grains. Nitrogen applied should not be more than 7.5kg/10a as the basal-dressing and the remained nitrogen should be applied at the later growing stage to increase their photosynthetic activity. The morphological and physiological characteristics of Tongil, a semi-dwarf, Indica $\times$ Japonica hybrid variety, are very different from those of other leading rice varieties, requring changes in seed selection by specific gravity method, in milling and in the cultural practices. Considering the peculiar distribution of grains selected by the method and the brown/rough rice ratio, the specific gravity criterion for seed selection should be changed from the currently employed 1.06 to about 0.96 for Tongil. In milling process, it would be advisable to bear in mind the specific traits of Tongil grain appearance. Tongil is a variety with many weak tillers and under lower temperature condition flowering is delayed. Such characteristics result in inactivation of roots and leaf blades which affects substantially lowering of the percentage of ripened grains due to increased unfertilized spikelets. In addition, Tongil is adapted well to higher nitrogen application. Therefore, it would be recommended to transplant Tongil variety earlier in season under the condition of higer nitrogen, phosphate and silicate. A dense planting-space with three vigorous seedlings per hill should be practiced in this case. In order to manifest fully the capability of Tongil, several aspects such as the varietal improvement, culural practices and milling process should be more intensively considered in the future.he future.

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