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Development of Analytic Hierarchy Process or Solving Dependence Relation between Multicriteria (다기준 평가항목간 중복도를 반영한 AHP 기법 개발)

  • 송기한;홍상연;정성봉;전경수
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.7
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    • pp.15-22
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    • 2002
  • Transportation project appraisal should be precise in order to increase the social welfare and efficiency, and it has been evaluated by only a single criterion analysis such as benefit/cost analysis. However, this method cannot assess some qualitative items, and cannot get a proper solution for the clash of interests among various groups. Therefore, the multi-criteria analysis, which can control these problems, is needed, and then Saaty has developed one of these methods, AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) method. In AHP, the project is evaluated through weighted score of the criteria and the alternatives, which is surveyed by a questionnaire of specialists. It is based on some strict suppositions such as reciprocal comparison, homogeneity, expectation, independence relationship between multi-criteria, but supposing that each criterion has independence relation with others is too difficult in two reasons. First, in real situation, there cannot be perfect independence relationship between standards. Second, individuals, even though they are specialists of that area, do not feel the degree of independence relation as same as others. This paper develops a modified AHP method for solving this dependence relationship between multi-criteria. First of all. in this method, the degree of dependence relationship between multi-criteria that the specialist feels is surveyed and included to the weighted score of multi-criteria This study supposes three methods to implement this idea. The first model products the degree of dependence relationship in the first step for calculating the weighted score, and the others adjust the result of weighted score from the basic AHP method to the dependence relationship. One of the second methods distributes the cross weighted score to each standard by constant ratio, and the other splits them using Fuzzy measure such as Bel and Pl. Finally, in order to validate these methods, this paper applies them to evaluate the alternatives which can control public resentments against Korean rail path in a city area.

Automated Analyses of Ground-Penetrating Radar Images to Determine Spatial Distribution of Buried Cultural Heritage (매장 문화재 공간 분포 결정을 위한 지하투과레이더 영상 분석 자동화 기법 탐색)

  • Kwon, Moonhee;Kim, Seung-Sep
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.55 no.5
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    • pp.551-561
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    • 2022
  • Geophysical exploration methods are very useful for generating high-resolution images of underground structures, and such methods can be applied to investigation of buried cultural properties and for determining their exact locations. In this study, image feature extraction and image segmentation methods were applied to automatically distinguish the structures of buried relics from the high-resolution ground-penetrating radar (GPR) images obtained at the center of Silla Kingdom, Gyeongju, South Korea. The major purpose for image feature extraction analyses is identifying the circular features from building remains and the linear features from ancient roads and fences. Feature extraction is implemented by applying the Canny edge detection and Hough transform algorithms. We applied the Hough transforms to the edge image resulted from the Canny algorithm in order to determine the locations the target features. However, the Hough transform requires different parameter settings for each survey sector. As for image segmentation, we applied the connected element labeling algorithm and object-based image analysis using Orfeo Toolbox (OTB) in QGIS. The connected components labeled image shows the signals associated with the target buried relics are effectively connected and labeled. However, we often find multiple labels are assigned to a single structure on the given GPR data. Object-based image analysis was conducted by using a Large-Scale Mean-Shift (LSMS) image segmentation. In this analysis, a vector layer containing pixel values for each segmented polygon was estimated first and then used to build a train-validation dataset by assigning the polygons to one class associated with the buried relics and another class for the background field. With the Random Forest Classifier, we find that the polygons on the LSMS image segmentation layer can be successfully classified into the polygons of the buried relics and those of the background. Thus, we propose that these automatic classification methods applied to the GPR images of buried cultural heritage in this study can be useful to obtain consistent analyses results for planning excavation processes.

End-use Analysis of Household Water by Metering (가정용수의 용도별 사용 원단위 분석)

  • Kim, Hwa Soo;Lee, Doo Jin;Kim, Ju Whan;Jung, Kwan Soo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.5B
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    • pp.595-601
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the trends and patterns of various kind of water uses in a household by metering in Korea. Water use components are classified by toilet, washbowl, bathing, laundry, kitchen, miscellaneous. Flow meters are installed in 140 household selected by sampling in all around Korea. The data are gathered by web-based data collection system from the year 2002 to 2006, considering pre-investigated data such as occupation, revenue, family members, housing types, age, floor area, water saving devices, education, miscellaneous. Reliable data are selected by upper fence method for each observed water use component and statistical characteristics are estimated for each residential type to determine liter per capita per day. Estimated domestic per capita day show an indoor water use with the range from 150 lpcd to 169 lpcd for each housing type as the order of high rise apartment, multi-house, and single house. As the order of consuming amount among water use components, it is investigated that toilet (38.5 lpcd) is the first, and the second is laundry water (30.8 lpcd), the third is kitchen (28.4 lpcd), the fourth is bathtub (24.7 lpcd), the next is washbowl (15.4 lpcd). The results are compared with water uses in U.K. and U.S. As life style has been changed into western style, pattern of water use in Korea is tend to be similar with the U.S. water use pattern. Compared with the surveying results by Bradley, on 1985. Thirty liter of total use increased with the advancement of economic level, and a little change of water use pattern can be found. Especially, toilet water take almost half part of total water use and laundry water shows lowest as 11% in surveying at the year of 1985. But, this study shows that 39 liter, 28% of toilet water, has been decreased by the spread of saving devices and campaign. It is supposed that the spread large sized laundry machine make by-hand laundry has been decreased and water use increased. Unit water amount of each end-use in household can be applied to design factor for water and wastewater facilities, and it play a role as information in establishing water demand forecasting and conservation policy.

Prediction of Spring Flowering Timing in Forested Area in 2023 (산림지역에서의 2023년 봄철 꽃나무 개화시기 예측)

  • Jihee Seo;Sukyung Kim;Hyun Seok Kim;Junghwa Chun;Myoungsoo Won;Keunchang Jang
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.427-435
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    • 2023
  • Changes in flowering time due to weather fluctuations impact plant growth and ecosystem dynamics. Accurate prediction of flowering timing is crucial for effective forest ecosystem management. This study uses a process-based model to predict flowering timing in 2023 for five major tree species in Korean forests. Models are developed based on nine years (2009-2017) of flowering data for Abeliophyllum distichum, Robinia pseudoacacia, Rhododendron schlippenbachii, Rhododendron yedoense f. poukhanense, and Sorbus commixta, distributed across 28 regions in the country, including mountains. Weather data from the Automatic Mountain Meteorology Observation System (AMOS) and the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) are utilized as inputs for the models. The Single Triangle Degree Days (STDD) and Growing Degree Days (GDD) models, known for their superior performance, are employed to predict flowering dates. Daily temperature readings at a 1 km spatial resolution are obtained by merging AMOS and KMA data. To improve prediction accuracy nationwide, random forest machine learning is used to generate region-specific correction coefficients. Applying these coefficients results in minimal prediction errors, particularly for Abeliophyllum distichum, Robinia pseudoacacia, and Rhododendron schlippenbachii, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of 1.2, 0.6, and 1.2 days, respectively. Model performance is evaluated using ten random sampling tests per species, selecting the model with the highest R2. The models with applied correction coefficients achieve R2 values ranging from 0.07 to 0.7, except for Sorbus commixta, and exhibit a final explanatory power of 0.75-0.9. This study provides valuable insights into seasonal changes in plant phenology, aiding in identifying honey harvesting seasons affected by abnormal weather conditions, such as those of Robinia pseudoacacia. Detailed information on flowering timing for various plant species and regions enhances understanding of the climate-plant phenology relationship.

Weeding Effect and Phytotoxicity Variable in Herbicide Treatment in Mechanically Transplanted Paddy Field - 1. Effect of Application Time on Weeding Effect and Phytotoxicity (기계이앙답에(機械移秧畓) 있어서 제초제(除草劑)의 약효(藥效) 및 약해(藥害) 변동요인(變動要因) - 제(第) 1 보(報) 처리시기(處理時期)의 차이(差異)가 약효(藥效) 및 약해(藥害)에 미치는 영향(影響))

  • Ryang, Hwan-Seung;Han, Seong-Soo;Kim, J.S.
    • Korean Journal of Weed Science
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.69-77
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    • 1981
  • Six herbicides were evaluated to investigate the phytotoxicity of rice plant and the weeding efficacy influenced by the time of application in mechically transplanted paddy field. The amount of each chemical applied was 3 kg, a. i, /ha. Chlormethoxynil : Rotala indica KOEHNE and Lindernia pyxuiaria PHILCOX were effectively controlled when applied on the 12th day after transplanting (12 DAT) and this herbicide was excellent for the control of Echinochloa crusgalli P. BEAUV, Monochoria vaginalis PRESL and Sagittaria pygmaea MIQ, when applied early (7 days after puddling) but its weeding effect for these weeds decreased greatly as the application time became later. It had a controlling effect for Potamogeton distinctus A. BENN, Cyperus serotinus ROTTB and Scirpus hotarui ROXB at the initial period at the earlier application time. Butachlor was effective in controlling E. crusgalli, R. indica and L. pyxidaria at 12 days after transplanting (DAT) but was not effective in controlling P. distinctus and S. pygmaea even at the early application time. M. vaginalis, C. serotinus and S. hotarui were effectively controlled by the butachlor treatment at 7 days after final puddling (2 DBT-SDAT) but this weeding effect decreased at the late application time. A combination of butachlor and naproanilide excellently controlled E. crusgalli, R. indica, L. pyxidaria and S. pygmaea regardless of the application time. For the control of M. vaginalis, C. serotinus and P. distinctus, the weeding effect of this mixtures was much greater than that of the single treatment of butachlor. Perfluidone was excellent for the control of E. crusgalli, R. indica, L. pyxidaria, M. vaginalis and S. pygmaea at either application time tested. P. distinctus, C. serorinus and S. hotarui could be controlled by this chemicals until the time of first observation (23 DAT) but the effect for these weeds somewhat decreased as time passed. The effect of pyrazolate on E. crusgalli, M. vaginalis, S. hotarui and P. distinctus was very excellent regardless of the application time but R. indica and L. pyxidaria could not be completely eliminated by this chemical. This chemical was effective in controlling C. serotinus when applied at 7-9 days after final puddling and showed a controlling effect for S. hotaruionly at the initial period. Piperophos + dimethametryn was very excellent for the control of all the annual weeds and P. distinctus. It showed a controlling effect on S. pygmaea, C. serotinus and S. hotarui only at the initial period. There was no difference in the effects on phytotoxicity and yield between chlormethoxynil and pyrazolate at either times of application tested. The later the application time was, the less the phytotoxicity of butachlor and piperophos+dimethametryne was. The phytotoxicity of butachlor + naproanilide and perfluidone decrease in the plots treated at the later application time. When the last two chemicals were treated at 2 days before transplanting (DBT) the yield decreased as compared with the hand weeded plot.

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Analysis of Success Cases of InsurTech and Digital Insurance Platform Based on Artificial Intelligence Technologies: Focused on Ping An Insurance Group Ltd. in China (인공지능 기술 기반 인슈어테크와 디지털보험플랫폼 성공사례 분석: 중국 평안보험그룹을 중심으로)

  • Lee, JaeWon;Oh, SangJin
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.71-90
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    • 2020
  • Recently, the global insurance industry is rapidly developing digital transformation through the use of artificial intelligence technologies such as machine learning, natural language processing, and deep learning. As a result, more and more foreign insurers have achieved the success of artificial intelligence technology-based InsurTech and platform business, and Ping An Insurance Group Ltd., China's largest private company, is leading China's global fourth industrial revolution with remarkable achievements in InsurTech and Digital Platform as a result of its constant innovation, using 'finance and technology' and 'finance and ecosystem' as keywords for companies. In response, this study analyzed the InsurTech and platform business activities of Ping An Insurance Group Ltd. through the ser-M analysis model to provide strategic implications for revitalizing AI technology-based businesses of domestic insurers. The ser-M analysis model has been studied so that the vision and leadership of the CEO, the historical environment of the enterprise, the utilization of various resources, and the unique mechanism relationships can be interpreted in an integrated manner as a frame that can be interpreted in terms of the subject, environment, resource and mechanism. As a result of the case analysis, Ping An Insurance Group Ltd. has achieved cost reduction and customer service development by digitally innovating its entire business area such as sales, underwriting, claims, and loan service by utilizing core artificial intelligence technologies such as facial, voice, and facial expression recognition. In addition, "online data in China" and "the vast offline data and insights accumulated by the company" were combined with new technologies such as artificial intelligence and big data analysis to build a digital platform that integrates financial services and digital service businesses. Ping An Insurance Group Ltd. challenged constant innovation, and as of 2019, sales reached $155 billion, ranking seventh among all companies in the Global 2000 rankings selected by Forbes Magazine. Analyzing the background of the success of Ping An Insurance Group Ltd. from the perspective of ser-M, founder Mammingz quickly captured the development of digital technology, market competition and changes in population structure in the era of the fourth industrial revolution, and established a new vision and displayed an agile leadership of digital technology-focused. Based on the strong leadership led by the founder in response to environmental changes, the company has successfully led InsurTech and Platform Business through innovation of internal resources such as investment in artificial intelligence technology, securing excellent professionals, and strengthening big data capabilities, combining external absorption capabilities, and strategic alliances among various industries. Through this success story analysis of Ping An Insurance Group Ltd., the following implications can be given to domestic insurance companies that are preparing for digital transformation. First, CEOs of domestic companies also need to recognize the paradigm shift in industry due to the change in digital technology and quickly arm themselves with digital technology-oriented leadership to spearhead the digital transformation of enterprises. Second, the Korean government should urgently overhaul related laws and systems to further promote the use of data between different industries and provide drastic support such as deregulation, tax benefits and platform provision to help the domestic insurance industry secure global competitiveness. Third, Korean companies also need to make bolder investments in the development of artificial intelligence technology so that systematic securing of internal and external data, training of technical personnel, and patent applications can be expanded, and digital platforms should be quickly established so that diverse customer experiences can be integrated through learned artificial intelligence technology. Finally, since there may be limitations to generalization through a single case of an overseas insurance company, I hope that in the future, more extensive research will be conducted on various management strategies related to artificial intelligence technology by analyzing cases of multiple industries or multiple companies or conducting empirical research.

Corporate Default Prediction Model Using Deep Learning Time Series Algorithm, RNN and LSTM (딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 적용한 기업부도예측모형 유용성 검증)

  • Cha, Sungjae;Kang, Jungseok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2018
  • In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.