• Acute and Critical Care
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.216-221
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• 2018

Background: In this study, we analyze the performance of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, APACHE IV, Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3, and Mortality Probability Model $(MPM)_0$ III in order to determine which system best implements data related to the severity of medical intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Methods: The present study was a retrospective investigation analyzing the discrimination and calibration of APACHE II, APACHE IV, SAPS 3, and $MPM_0$ III when used to evaluate medical ICU patients. Data were collected for 788 patients admitted to the ICU from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2015. All patients were aged 18 years or older with ICU stays of at least 24 hours. The discrimination abilities of the three systems were evaluated using c-statistics, while calibration was evaluated by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. A severity correction model was created using logistics regression analysis. Results: For the APACHE IV, SAPS 3, $MPM_0$ III, and APACHE II systems, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves was 0.745 for APACHE IV, resulting in the highest discrimination among all four scoring systems. The value was 0.729 for APACHE II, 0.700 for SAP 3, and 0.670 for $MPM_0$ III. All severity scoring systems showed good calibrations: APACHE II (chi-square, 12.540; P=0.129), APACHE IV (chi-square, 6.959; P=0.541), SAPS 3 (chi-square, 9.290; P=0.318), and $MPM_0$ III (chi-square, 11.128; P=0.133). Conclusions: APACHE IV provided the best discrimination and calibration abilities and was useful for quality assessment and predicting mortality in medical ICU patients.

• Korean Journal of Adult Nursing
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.464-473
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• 2005

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate and compare the predictive ability of three mortality scoring systems; Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation(APACHE) III, Simplified Acute Physiology Score(SAPS) II, and Mortality Probability Model(MPM) II in discriminating in-hospital mortality for intensive care unit(ICU) patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage. Methods: Eighty-nine patients admitted to the ICU at a university hospital in Daejeon Korea were recruited for this study. Medical records of the subject were reviewed by a researcher from January 1, 2003 to March 31, 2004, retrospectively. Data were analyzed using SAS 8.1. General characteristic of the subjects were analyzed for frequency and percentage. Results: The results of this study were summarized as follows. The values of the Hosmer-Lemeshow's goodness-of-fit test for the APACHE III, the SAPS II and the MPM II were chi-square H=4.3849 p=0.7345, chi-square H=15.4491 p=0.0307, and chi-square H=0.3356 p=0.8455, respectively. Thus, The calibration of the MPM II found to be the best scoring system, followed by APACHE III. For ROC curve analysis, the areas under the curves of APACHE III, SAPS II, and MPM II were 0.934, 0.918 and 0.813, respectively. Thus, the discrimination of three scoring systems were satisfactory. For two-by-two decision matrices with a decision criterion of 0.5, the correct classification of three scoring systems were good. Conclusion: Both the APACHE III and the MPM II had an excellent power of mortality prediction and discrimination for spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage patients in ICU.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.38 no.3
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• pp.276-282
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• 2005

Objectives : To evaluate the predictive validity of three scoring systems; the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation(APACHE) III, simplified acute physiology score(SAPS) II, and mortality probability model(MPM) II systems in critically ill patients. Methods : A concurrent and retrospective study conducted by collecting data on consecutive patients admitted to the intensive care unit(ICU) including surgical, medical and coronary care unit between January 1, 2004, and March 31, 2004. Data were collected on 348 patients consecutively admitted to the ICU(aged 16 years or older, no transfer, ICU stay at least 8 hours). Three models were analyzed using logistic regression. Discrimination was assessed using receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curves, sensitivity, specificity, and correct classification rate. Calibration was assessed using the Lemeshow-Hosmer goodness of fit H-statistic. Results : For the APACHE III, SAPS II and MPM II systems, the area under the receiver operating characterist ic(ROC) curves were 0.981, 0.978, and 0.941 respectively. With a predicted risk of 0.5, the sensitivities for the APACHE III, SAPS II, and MPM II systems were 81.1, 79.2 and 71.7%, the specificities 98.3, 98.6, and 98.3%, and the correct classification rates 95.7, 95.7, and 94.3%, respectively. The SAPS II and APACHE III systems showed good calibrations(chi-squared H=2.5838 p=0.9577 for SAPS II, and chi-squared H=4.3761 p=0.8217 for APACHE III). Conclusions : The APACHE III and SAPS II systems have excellent powers of mortality prediction, and calibration, and can be useful tools for the quality assessment of intensive care units(ICUs).

• Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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• v.40 no.5
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• pp.532-539
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• 1993

Background: Physician's estimates of patient survival often influence clinical decisions, especially those near the end of life. In addition. clinical decisions frequently reflect trade-offs between morbidity and length of survival. As a result, accurate estimates of survival can be extremely useful in clinical decision. When the episode of acute respiratory failure in chronic obstructive lung disease, evaluation of the severity of the condition and short term prognosis is difficulit based on the available clinical or paraclinical data at the time of admission. Method: In this study, we performed a retrospective study in Chung Ang University Hospital, 74 patients (51 males, 23 females), who were hospitalized with chronic obstructive lung disease with acute respiratory failure from 1980 to 1992. We evaluated these patients to determine lung prognostic factors at time of admission in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) that predict short term survival, and to determine the possible application of the Simplified Acute Phsiology Score (SAPS) to this population, All patients were treated with similar regimen during the hospitalization. Results: The results were as follows: 1) Hospital mortality was 34%(25/74 patients) and surival rate was 66%(49/74 patients) in COPD with acute respiratory failure. The prognosis of the older age was much poorer than those of the young age. 2) There was no difference in mortality according to the results of basal pulmonary test and arterial blood gas analysis. 3) The SAPS at admission was higher in those patients who expired(10.8) than the survived(6.5), and there was positive correlation between SAPS and mortality (r=0.91, p<0.05). 4) Prognostic factors in acute respiratory failure complicating COPD which were identifiable at time of admission to the ICU were as follows: cachexia, encephalopathy, serum creatinine and phosphate. Conclusion: In conclusion, the SAPS might have a good prognostic value for determination of short term survival among chronic obstructive lung disease with acute respiratory failure.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Clinical Toxicology
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.25-31
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• 2008

Purpose: Acute organophosphate (OP) poisoning may be monitored by measuring the acetylcholinesterase (AChE). It is important to assess severity and establish prognostic tests in the early stage of OP poisoning. The aim of this study was to look at the relationship between various clinical aspects of the OP poisoning, prognostic indicators of OP poisoning including Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3, and the associated changes in AChE levels. Methods: Clinical data and initial AChE levels from thirty-seven patients with OP poisoning were prospectively reviewed from 12 teaching hospitals in South Korea from August 2005 to July 2006. Clinical manifestations at the time of arrival such as miosis, respiratory abnormality, salivation, urinary incontinence, GCS score, AVPU scale, need for intubation, and mechanical ventilation requirements were recorded. SAPS 3 was calculated using clinical data and laboratory results. Results: The median level of AChE was 9.8 (1.3-53.6) U/gHb. There was no significant difference in AChE levels between the groups with and without cholinergic symptoms. The median level of AChE of the patients who required intubation and those who did not were 3.5 U/gHb and it 19.7 U/gHb respectively (Mann-Whitney test; p<0.001). The AChE levels were also significantly different (p=0.007) in patients who needed mechanical ventilation compared to those who did not with AChE levels found to be 3.1 U/gHb and it was 14.8 U/gHb, respectively. Level of consciousness assessed using the AVPU scale was correlated with AChE levels (Kruskal-Wallis test; p=0.013). GCS score were correlated with AChE levels (p=0.007, Spearman's rho = 0.454). In addition, the lower the level of initial AChE, the longer the ICU stay (p=0.029, Spearman's rho=-0.380). SAPS 3 was inversely correlated with the initial AChE (p<0.001, Spearman's rho=-0.633). Conclusion: In the acute OP poisoning, low AChE levels appear to help indicate the severity of poisoning. The initial AChE level may be a useful prognostic parameter for acute OP poisoning.

• Journal of Korean Biological Nursing Science
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.249-259
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• 2020

Purpose: Carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) are associated with considerable mortality. This study was aimed to identify survival factors among medical care unit patients with CPE. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort; data were collected from September 2017 to June 2019 through electronic medical records. The data collected were general characteristics, disease-related characteristics, severity-related characteristics, and treatment-related characteristics. Data were analyzed based on frequency, mean, standard deviation, Chi-square test, Fisher's exact test, t-test, Pearson's correlation coefficient, and Cox proportional hazard model using SPSS/WIN 21.0 program. Results: Seventy-seven patients were included (59 survivors and 18 deceased) in the study. Univariate analysis identified factors for survival associated with acquired CPE as age (t= -1.56, p= .037), simplified acute physiology 3 (SAPS3) score of admission date (t= -2.85, p= .006), Glasgow coma scale (GCS) of CPE acquisition date (t= 2.38, p= .020), artery catheter at CPE acquisition date (χ²= 4.58, p= .032), vasoconstrictor agents use at CPE acquisition date (χ²= 6.81, p= .009), platelet at CPE acquisition date (t= 2.27, p= .025), lymphocyte at CPE acquisition date (t= 2.01, p= .048), calcium at CPE acquisition date (t= 2.68, p= .009), albumin at CPE acquisition date (t= 2.29, p= .025), and creatinine at CPE acquisition date (t= 2.24, p= .028). Multivariate Cox proportional hazard model showed that GCS at CPE acquisition date (HR= 1.14, 95% CI= 1.05-1.22), lymphocyte at CPE acquisition date (HR= 1.05, 95% CI= 1.00-1.10), and creatinine at CPE acquisition date (HR= 1.25, 95% CI= 1.04-1.49) were independent survival factors among medical intensive care unit patients with CPE. Conclusion: Based on the study results, it is necessary to develop nursing interventions that can aid in the management of patients with CPE and identify their effects.

• Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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• v.56 no.3
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• pp.280-288
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• 2004

Background : Lung protective strategies, using low tidal volume in ARDS, improve survival rate in ARDS. However, low tidal volume ventilation may promote alveolar de-recruitment. Therefore, alveolar recruitment is necessary to maintain arterial oxygenation and to prevent repetitive opening and closure of collapsed alveoli in lung protective strategies. There has been a recent report describing improvement in arterial oxygenation with use of recruitment maneuver. However, impact of recruitment on outcome of ARDS is unknown. We evaluated whether short-term survival difference existed in patients with ARDS, who were performed alveolar recruitment maneuver(ARM) and prone position, according to response of alveolar recruitment or not. Methods : All patients who were diagnosed with ADRS and received mechanical ventilation were included. ARM were sustained inflation($35-45cmH_2O$ CPAP for 30-40 sec.) or increasing level of PEEP. If these methods were ineffective, alveolar recruitment with prone position was done for at least 10 hours. $P_aO_2/FiO_2$(P/F) ratio was determined before and at 0.5 and 2 hours after ARM. We defined a responder if the P/F ratio was increased over 50% of baseline value. We compared 10-days and 30-days survival rate between responders and non-responders. Results : 20 patients(M:F=12:8, $63{\pm}14age$) were included. Among them, 12 patients were responders and 8 patients were non-responders. In responders, P/F ratio was increased from $92{\pm}25mmHg$ to $244{\pm}85mmHg$. In non-responders, P/F ratio increased from $138{\pm}37mmHg$ to $163{\pm}60mmHg$. Among non-responders, P/F ratio was improved over 50% in 2 patients after prone position. Overall, 14 patients were responders after ARM and prone position. The 10-days and 30-days survival rate in responders was significantly higher than in non-responders(86%, 57% in responders and 33%, 0% in non-responders)(p<0.05). There was no significant difference between responders and non-responders in age($71{\pm}11$, $60{\pm}14$), lung injury score($2.8{\pm}0.2$, $2.9{\pm}0.45$), simplified acute physiology score(SAPS) II ($35{\pm}4.6$, $34{\pm}5.7$), positive end-positive pressure level($15.6{\pm}1.9cmH_2O$, $14.5{\pm}2.1cmH_2O$). Conclusion : ARM may improve arterial oxygenation in some patients with ARDS. These responders in patients with ARDS showed significant higher 10-days and 30-days survival rate than non-responders patients with alveolar recruitment.