• Title/Summary/Keyword: Simplified Assessment

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Assessment of the uncertainty in the SWAT parameters based on formal and informal likelihood measure (정형·비정형 우도에 의한 SWAT 매개변수의 불확실성 평가)

  • Seong, Yeon Jeong;Lee, Sang Hyup;Jung, Younghun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.11
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    • pp.931-940
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    • 2019
  • In hydrologic models, parameters are mainly used to reflect hydrologic elements or to supplement the simplified models. In this process, the proper selection of the parameters in the model can reduce the uncertainty. Accordingly, this study attempted to quantify the uncertainty of SWAT parameters using the General Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE). Uncertainty analysis on SWAT parameters was conducted by using the formal and informal likelihood measures. The Lognormal function and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) were used for formal and informal likelihood, respectively. Subjective factors are included in the selection of the likelihood function and the threshold, but the behavioral models were created by selecting top 30% lognormal for formal likelihood and NSE above 0.5 for informal likelihood. Despite the subjectivity in the selection of the likelihood and the threshold, there was a small difference between the formal and informal likelihoods. In addition, among the SWAT parameters, ALPHA_BF which reflects baseflow characteristics is the most sensitive. Based on this study, if the range of SWAT model parameters satisfying a certain threshold for each watershed is classified, it is expected that users will have more practical or academic access to the SWAT model.

A Study on the Dynamic Lateral Displacements of Caisson Quay Walls in Moderate Earthquake Regions (중진지역에서 케이슨 안벽의 동적수평변위 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Keun-Bo;Sim, Jae-Uk;Cha, Seung-Hun;Kim, Soo-Il
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.24 no.8
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    • pp.137-148
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    • 2008
  • In this study, 28 earthquake records with magnitudes from 5.3 to 7.9 are selected for dynamic analysis in order to assess applicability of the earthquakes for domestic seismic design. The assessment is performed using the seismic spectrum analysis of energy and acceleration. Based on results of the analysis, four acceleration time histories, which satisfy the Korean design standard response spectrum, are proposed. From the dynamic analysis using earthquake magnitudes from 6.4 to 7.9, it is found that horizontal displacements corresponding to earthquake magnitudes greater than 7 are two times larger than those with magnitude 6.5. Therefore, it can be stated that use of strong earthquakes, such as Miyagiken-ken-oki earthquake (Ofunato, $M_{JMA}=7.4$) and Tokachi-oki earthquake (Hachinohe, $M_{JMA}=7.9$), for the seismic design in Korea is not applicable, and may prove to be excessively conservative due to overestimated seismic force. From the dynamic analyses using the proposed acceleration time histories, effects of caisson quay wall dimension and the subsoil condition are investigated as well. The simplified design charts to evaluate horizontal displacements of caisson quay wall are also proposed based on earthquake magnitude 6.5 that is appropriate in Korea.

Development of an Efficiency Calibration Model Optimization Method for Improving In-Situ Gamma-Ray Measurement for Non-Standard NORM Residues (비정형 공정부산물 In-Situ 감마선 측정 정확도 향상을 위한 효율교정 모델 최적화 방법 개발)

  • WooCheol Choi;Tae-Hoon Jeon;Jung-Ho Song;KwangPyo Kim
    • Journal of Radiation Industry
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.471-479
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    • 2023
  • In In-situ radioactivity measurement techniques, efficiency calibration models use predefined models to simulate a sample's geometry and radioactivity distribution. However, simplified efficiency calibration models lead to uncertainties in the efficiency curves, which in turn affect the radioactivity concentration results. This study aims to develop an efficiency calibration optimization methodology to improve the accuracy of in-situ gamma radiation measurements for byproducts from industrial facilities. To accomplish the objective, a drive mechanism for rotational measurement of an byproduct simulator and a sample was constructed. Using ISOCS, an efficiency calibration model of the designed object was generated. Then, the sensitivity analysis of the efficiency calibration model was performed, and the efficiency curve of the efficiency calibration model was optimized using the sensitivity analysis results. Finally, the radiation concentration of the simulated subject was estimated, compared, and evaluated with the designed certification value. For the sensitivity assessment of the influencing factors of the efficiency calibration model, the ISOCS Uncertainty Estimator was used for the horizontal and vertical size and density of the measured object. The standard deviation of the measurement efficiency as a function of the longitudinal size and density of the efficiency calibration model decreased with increasing energy region. When using the optimized efficiency calibration model, the measurement efficiency using IUE was improved compared to the measurement efficiency using ISOCS at the energy of 228Ac (911 keV) for the nuclide under analysis. Using the ISOCS efficiency calibration method, the difference between the measured radiation concentration and the design value for each simulated subject measurement direction was 4.1% (1% to 10%) on average. The difference between the estimated radioactivity concentration and the design value was 3.6% (1~8%) on average when using the ISOCS IUE efficiency calibration method, which was closer to the design value than the efficiency calibration method using ISOCS. In other words, the estimated radioactivity concentration using the optimized efficiency curve was similar to the designed radioactivity concentration. The results of this study can be utilized as the main basis for the development of regulatory technologies for the treatment and disposal of waste generated during the operation, maintenance, and facility replacement of domestic byproduct generation facilities.

Assessment of Two Clinical Prediction Models for a Pulmonary Embolism in Patients with a Suspected Pulmonary Embolism (폐색전증이 의심된 환자에서 두 가지 폐색전증 진단 예측 모형의 평가)

  • Park, Jae Seok;Choi, Won-Il;Min, Bo Ram;Park, Jie Hae;Chae, Jin Nyeong;Jeon, Young June;Yu, Ho Jung;Kim, Ji-Young;Kim, Gyoung-Ju;Ko, Sung-Min
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.64 no.4
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    • pp.266-271
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    • 2008
  • Background: Estimation of the probability of a patient having an acute pulmonary embolism (PE) for patients with a suspected PE are well established in North America and Europe. However, an assessment of the prediction rules for a PE has not been clearly defined in Korea. The aim of this study is to assess the prediction rules for patients with a suspected PE in Korea. Methods: We performed a retrospective study of 210 inpatients or patients that visited the emergency ward with a suspected PE where computed tomography pulmonary angiography was performed at a single institution between January 2005 and March 2007. Simplified Wells rules and revised Geneva rules were used to estimate the clinical probability of a PE based on information from medical records. Results: Of the 210 patients with a suspected PE, 49 (19.5%) patients had an actual diagnosis of a PE. The proportion of patients classified by Wells rules and the Geneva rules had a low probability of 1% and 21%, an intermediate probability of 62.5% and 76.2%, and a high probability of 33.8% and 2.8%, respectively. The prevalence of PE patients with a low, intermediate and high probability categorized by the Wells rules and Geneva rules was 100% and 4.5% in the low range, 18.2% and 22.5% in the intermediate range, and 19.7% and 50% in the high range, respectively. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the revised Geneva rules had a higher accuracy than the Wells rules in terms of detecting PE. Concordance between the two prediction rules was poor ($\kappa$ coefficient=0.06). Conclusion: In the present study, the two prediction rules had a different predictive accuracy for pulmonary embolisms. Applying the revised Geneva rules to inpatients and emergency ward patients suspected of having PE may allow a more effective diagnostic process than the use of the Wells rules.

Changes and Improvements of the Standardized Eddy Covariance Data Processing in KoFlux (표준화된 KoFlux 에디 공분산 자료 처리 방법의 변화와 개선)

  • Kang, Minseok;Kim, Joon;Lee, Seung-Hoon;Kim, Jongho;Chun, Jung-Hwa;Cho, Sungsik
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.5-17
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    • 2018
  • The standardized eddy covariance flux data processing in KoFlux has been updated, and its database has been amended accordingly. KoFlux data users have not been informed properly regarding these changes and the likely impacts on their analyses. In this paper, we have documented how the current structure of data processing in KoFlux has been established through the changes and improvements to ensure transparency, reliability and usability of the KoFlux database. Due to increasing diversity and complexity of flux site instrumentation and organization, we have re-implemented the previously ignored or simplified procedures in data processing (e.g., frequency response correction, stationarity test), and added new methods for $CH_4$ flux gap-filling and $CO_2$ flux correction and partitioning. To evaluate the effects of the changes, we processed the data measured at a flat and homogeneous paddy field (i.e., HPK) and a deciduous forest in complex and heterogeneous topography (i.e., GDK), and quantified the differences. Based on the results from our overall assessment, it is confirmed that (1) the frequency response correction (HPK: 11~18% of biases for annually integrated values, GDK: 6~10%) and the stationarity test (HPK: 4~19% of biases for annually integrated values, GDK: 9~23%) are important for quality control and (2) the minimization of the missing data and the choice of the appropriate driver (rather than the choice of the gap-filling method) are important to reduce the uncertainty in gap-filled fluxes. These results suggest the future directions for the data processing technology development to ensure the continuity of the long-term KoFlux database.

Changes in Landscape Characteristics of Stream Habitats with the Construction and Operation of River-Crossing Structures in the Geum-gang River, South Korea (금강에서 횡단구조물의 설치와 운영에 따른 하천 서식처의 경관 특성 변화)

  • Kim, Dana;Lee, Cheolho;Kim, Hwirae;Ock, Giyoung;Cho, Kang-Hyun
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.64-78
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    • 2021
  • This study was conducted to find out the effect of the construction and operation of river-crossing structures on the habitat landscape characteristics in the Geum-gang River, South Korea. A total of three study reaches were selected in the downstream of the Daecheong Dam: the Buyong-ri reach, which is a control that is not affected by the construction and operation of the weir of the Four Rivers Project and Sejong-bo Weir reach and Gongju-bo Weir reach of the upper and lower sections of each weir that are affected by the weir construction and operation. The habitat type was classified, and then the structural characteristics of the landscape were analyzed using aerial photographs taken before and after the construction of the Daecheong Dam, before and after the construction of the weir, and before and after the weir gate operation. After the construction of Daecheong Dam in Geum River, the area of the bare land greatly decreased, and the area of grassland and woodland increased in the downstream of the dam. In addition, the patch number in the river landscape increased, the patch size decreased, and the landscape shape index and the habitat diversity increased. Therefore, after the construction of the dam, the bare land habitat was changed to a vegetated habitat, and the habitat was fragmented and diversified in the downstream of the dam. After the construction of the weirs, the area of open water increased by 18% in the Sejong-bo reach and by 90% in the Gongju-bo reach, and the landscape shape index of the open water decreased by 32% in the Sejong-bo reach and by 35% in the Gongju-bo reach, and the habitat diversity index decreased to 25% in the Sejong-bo reach and to 24% in the Gongju-bo reach. Therefore, the open water habitat was expanded, the shape of the habitat was simplified, and the habitat diversity decreased according to the construction of the weirs. After water-gate opening of the weir, the bare land that disappeared after the construction of the weir reappeared, and the landscape shape index and habitat diversity index increased in both terrestrial and open water habitats. Therefore, it was found that the landscape characteristics of the river habitats were restored to the pre-construction of the weir by the operation of the weir gate. The effect of weir gate opening was delayed in the downstream than in the upstream of the weir. Although the characteristics of the landscape structure in the river habitat changed due to the construction of the river-crossing structures, it is thought that proper technology development for the ecological operation of the structures is necessary as the habitat environments can be restored by the operation of these structures.

Usefulness of Troponin-I, Lactate, C-reactive protein as a Prognostic Markers in Critically Ill Non-cardiac Patients (비 순환기계 중환자의 예후 인자로서의 Troponin-I, Lactate, C-reactive protein의 유용성)

  • Cho, Yu Ji;Ham, Hyeon Seok;Kim, Hwi Jong;Kim, Ho Cheol;Lee, Jong Deok;Hwang, Young Sil
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.58 no.6
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    • pp.562-569
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    • 2005
  • Background : The severity scoring system is useful for predicting the outcome of critically ill patients. However, the system is quite complicated and cost-ineffective. Simple serologic markers have been proposed to predict the outcome, which include troponin-I, lactate and C-reactive protein(CRP). The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic values of troponin-I, lactate and CRP in critically ill non-cardiac patients. Methods : From September 2003 to June 2004, 139 patients(Age: $63.3{\pm}14.7$, M:F = 88:51), who were admitted to the MICU with non-cardiac critical illness at Gyeongsang National University Hospital, were enrolled in this study. This study evaluated the severity of the illness and the multi-organ failure score (Acute Physiologic and Chronic Health EvaluationII, Simplified Acute Physiologic ScoreII and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment) and measured the troponin-I, lactate and CRP within 24 hours after admission in the MICU. Each value in the survivors and non-survivors was compared at the 10th and 30th day after ICU admission. The mortality rate was compared at 10th and 30th day in normal and abnormal group. In addition, the correlations between each value and the severity score were assessed. Results : There were significantly higher troponin-I and CRP levels, not lactate, in the non-survivors than in the survivors at 10th day($1.018{\pm}2.58ng/ml$, $98.48{\pm}69.24mg/L$ vs. $4.208{\pm}10.23ng/ml$, $137.69{\pm}70.18mg/L$) (p<0.05). There were significantly higher troponin-I, lactate and CRP levels in the non-survivors than in the survivors on the 30th day ($0.99{\pm}2.66ng/ml$, $8.02{\pm}9.54ng/dl$, $96.87{\pm}68.83mg/L$ vs. $3.36{\pm}8.74ng/ml$, $15.42{\pm}20.57ng/dl$, $131.28{\pm}71.23mg/L$) (p<0.05). The mortality rate was significantly higher in the abnormal group of troponin-I, lactate and CRP than in the normal group of troponin-I, lactate and CRP at 10th day(28.1%, 31.6%, 18.9% vs. 11.0%, 15.8 %, 0%) and 30th day(38.6%, 47.4%, 25.8% vs. 15.9%, 21.7%, 14.3%) (p<0.05). Troponin-I and lactate were significantly correlated with the SAPS II score($r^2=0.254$, 0.365, p<0.05). Conclusion : Measuring the troponin-I, lactate and CRP levels upon admission may be useful for predicting the outcome of critically ill non-cardiac patients.