• Title/Summary/Keyword: Short-Term Trend

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Panel Estimation of Price Elasticities on Residential Water Demand in Korea (패널자료를 이용한 생활용수 수요의 가격탄력도 분석)

  • Park, Dooho;Choi, Hanjoo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.527-534
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    • 2006
  • Demand side management(DSM) is the newly raised issues in the water resources management in recent. Many of the policy tools among demand management, the most important measures might be a pricing system. Furthermore, the responses of consumers on the price for water consumption level is the key factor for policy making. Here, we estimated panel data for 167 regions and over 7 years periods in Korea. Compare to other previous studies the price elasticities were somewhat low. The estimated price elasticity was -0.05. It was because the short term estimated period may derive lower elasticities. However, it might be a recent trend after the continuous increment of water pricing and consumers not willing to decrease their residential water consumption with increasing water pricing. According to this results, water saving effect might be much smaller than we expect with pricing policy. However, It does not imply there is no price effects on water consumption and it's still meaningful as a tool of water management.

A research of optimum supply reserve levels for stability of power system (전력계통 안정을 위한 공급예비력 적정수준에 대한 연구)

  • Ahn, Dae-Hoon;Kwon, Seok-Kee;Joo, Haeng-Ro;Shin, Jung-Sun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of IIIuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers Conference
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    • 2008.05a
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    • pp.61-65
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    • 2008
  • Because of the high increasing rate of load demand, these days the necessity of deciding what optimum reserve level is appropriate to most stably supply electricity is being emphasized. This research studies the downward tendency of reverve ratio by analyzing the trend of change of the network scale, reserve, and reserve ratio while optimum reserve has been increased as the network system scale grow up. This means, at this moment 6,000MW is optimum level for short term prospect of power supply and demand. And also, it has been analyzed that, as the annual peak load exceeded 50,000MW, confirming the amount of optimum reserve level is more stable than keeping 10 to 12% reserve ratio.

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Comparative Study on the Development Trends of High-rise Buildings Above 200 Meters in China, the USA and the UAE

  • Qu, Jiaqi;Wang, Zhendong;Du, Peng
    • International Journal of High-Rise Buildings
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.63-71
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    • 2021
  • Since 2006, the number of completed high-rise buildings over 200 meters have increased rapidly. Although there were some short-term cyclical troughs, the overall trend has still been growing. No longer constrained by technological limits, the development of high-rise buildings now depends on cooperation and compromise between social, economic, and political factors. This article extracts statistical data from the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat (CTBUH) to focus on the completion of high-rise buildings of 200 meters and above over the past 20 years from 2000 to 2019. Similarities and differences in the number, distribution, and function of high-rise buildings are analyzed, The paper also compares the impact of different political and economic environments on the development trends of high-rise buildings in China, the United States and the UAE.

Determine the return period of flash floods by combining flash flood guidance and best fit distribution

  • Duong, Ngoc Tien;Kim, Jeong-Bae;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.362-362
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    • 2020
  • Flash flood is a dangerous weather phenomenon, affecting humans and the economy. The identification, forecast of the changing trend and its characteristics are increasingly concerned. In the world, there have many methods for determining the characteristics of flash floods, in which flash flood guidance (FFG) is a fast, effective and widely used method. The main source of flash floods is short-term rainfall. In this study, we used the data of cross-sectional measurement at the tributaries and the hourly rain data from the automatic rainfall measurement stations in the Geum river basin. Besides, we use a combination of the flash flood guidance and the best fit distribution function to estimate the repeatability of flash floods for head-water catchments in Geum river basin. In which, FFG determines the threshold of rainfall for flash floods. The study has determined the best hourly rainfall distribution function for the Geum river basin and estimated the maximum rainfall of 1hr according to the return periods.

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The Effect of Long-term Treatment with Clozapine on Cognitive Functions in Chronic Schizophrenic Patients (만성 정신분열증 환자의 인지기능에 미치는 Clozapine 장기치료의 효과)

  • Lee, Hong-Shick;Kim, Ji-Hyeon;Jeon, Ji-Yong;Jeong, Min-Jung
    • Korean Journal of Biological Psychiatry
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.109-116
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    • 1994
  • It is not known whether negative symptoms and cognitive functions are dissociable or improvements in symptoms are reflected in improvements in cognitive functions in chronic schizophrenic patients. We administered clozapine to evaluate its effect on cognitive functions in chronic schizophrenic patients and to show correlations between improvement in psychotic symptoms and in cognitive functions. Neuropsychological tests such as Wisconsin Card Sorting Test, Digit Span test and Judgment of Line Orientation Test were applied to 16 chronic schizophrenic patients at baseline and after 9 months of treatment with clozapine. Using BPRS we assessed psychopathology before initiation of clozapine and at 9 months. Clozapine improved both positive and negative symptoms in chronic schizophrenic patients significantly. After nine months of clozapine treatment, significant improvements occurred in attention, short-term memory and visual perception ability. And interestingly we noted the trend of improvement in executive functions even though they were not statistical significant. Any significant correlations between the clinical improvement and change in congnitive functions were not observed. Long-term treatment with clozapine improved parts of cognitive functions of chronic schizophrenics. The results of the study suggest that deficits in simple cognitive functions as well as psychotic symptoms are improved after 3 month period of short-term treatment, but executive functions requiring more sophisticated processing of information could be improved after more than 9 months of long-term treatment.

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Short-term Mortality Prediction of Recurrence Patients with ST-segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction (ST 분절 급상승 심근경색 환자들의 단기 재발 사망 예측)

  • Lim, Kwang-Hyeon;Ryu, Kwang-Sun;Park, Soo-Ho;Shon, Ho-Sun;Ryu, Keun-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.17 no.10
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    • pp.145-154
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    • 2012
  • Recently, the cardiovascular disease has increased by causes such as westernization dietary life, smoking, and obesity. In particular, the acute myocardial infarction (AMI) occupies 50% death rate in cardiovascular disease. Following this trend, the AMI has been carried out a research for discovery of risk factors based on national data. However, there is a lack of diagnosis minor suitable for Korean. The objective of this paper is to develop a classifier for short-term relapse mortality prediction of cardiovascular disease patient based on prognosis data which is supported by KAMIR(Korea Acute Myocardial Infarction). Through this study, we came to a conclusion that ANN is the most suitable method for predicting the short-term relapse mortality of patients who have ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. Also, data set obtained by logistic regression analysis performed highly efficient performance than existing data set. So, it is expect to contribute to prognosis estimation through proper classification of high-risk patients.

An analytic Study on Elementary School Students Number of increasing and decreasing Trends in Small Cities (중소도시 초등학교별 학생수 증감 추세 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Yoon, Yong-Gi
    • The Journal of Sustainable Design and Educational Environment Research
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.30-39
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    • 2016
  • Students receiving plan is not based on short-term indicators, such as student-centered, student-induced factor to address school needs new complaint, it is necessary to establish the school in the center of a long-term (30 years) perspective. Therefore, analysis of Cheongju students can examine the entire 30 years of the elementary school in this study are as follows: First, given the increasing number of students in seven models and presented the case to its types. Second, considering the geographical characteristics and the development of regional characteristics classify 55 elementary Schools in Cheongju City by dividing the number of students increase or decrease trend to 10 zones the results are as follows: Students Number increasing school group of 4 schools, 15 schools students Number fell in shot Term, the Students Number dropped in middle Term 26 schools, 10 was a small school. In particular, it is urgently necessary to establish measures for these small schools. Third, despite the reduced number of students indicated in the analysis result, caused the social conflict factors by excessive new school requirements. It also caused a number of students from schools when the Curve of Students Number are to remain flat or decline. It shows that no additional new demand of School in the region. Fourth, the number of students increasing trend forecasting model

    as you can see, this was the accepted plan issues.

Analysis of Short-Term and Long-Term Characteristics of GPS Satellite Clock Offsets (GPS 위성시계오차의 장단기 특성 분석)

  • Son, Eun-Seong;Park, Kwan-Dong;Kim, Kyeong-Hui
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.563-571
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    • 2010
  • The GPS satellite has three or four atomic clocks that consist of cesiums and rubidiums and the NANU messages can be used to identify the kind of the onboard atomic clock because they classify the clock type on a daily basis. In this study, for long-term analysis of the GPS satellite clock behavior, we extracted satellite clock errors for every PRN from years 2001 through 2009 using the SP3 files that are provided by the IGS. As a result, the cesium clock offsets usually have a linear trend of drifting. On the other hand, rubidium offsets show curvilinear variations in general, even though they cannot be represented as anyone specific polynomial function. For short-term analysis, we extracted satellite clock errors for each PRN for a week-long period using the CLK files that are also provided by the IGS and curve-fitted them with first-order and second-order polynomial functions. In cases of cesium clock errors, they were well-represented by first-order polynomial functions and rubidium clock errors were similar with second-order polynomials. However, some of rubidium clock errors could not be represented as any polynomial fitting function. To analyze the characteristic of GPS satellite by each block and atomic clock, we applied Modified Allan Deviation criterion to the dataset from years 2007 and 2010. We found that the Modified Allan Deviation characteristics changed significantly according the block and atomic clock type.

A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

Comparing Labor Force Attachment and Human Capital Development Models in America's Welfare to Work Policies (미국의 노동중심적 복지개혁에서의 '노동시장연결' 모델과 '인간자본개발' 모델 비교)

  • Kim, Jong-Il
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.41
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    • pp.119-146
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    • 2000
  • The goals and strategies of welfare-to-work (WTW) policies have been sources of contentious political debate. In the United States, despite 20 years of welfare reform, there remain important differences of opinion regarding how best to design and deliver WTW programs. The proliferation of state and local WTW experiments has led to the identification of two ideal-types of WTW programs: the Labor Force Attachment and Human Capital Development models. Most of the recent policy debate about WTW in America has focused on the relative merits and performance of LFA and HCD. While the Primary goal of the LFA model is for welfare recipients to achieve a rapid transition into work, the HCD model seeks to improve the long-term employability of welfare dependents through education and skill development. LFA policies tend to be strongly outcome-oriented and generally can yield quick results. Their "any job is a good job" philosophy has proved attractive to policy-makers who are anxious to see concrete results in a short-term period. In contrast, the HCD policies do not simply dump welfare dependents at the bottom of the labor market, but aim to secure relatively stable and well-paid jobs. However, these strengths are offset by several practical weaknesses including high unit costs and long-term investment in human capital. In recent years, LFA policies have been increasingly favored by both policy officials and politicians in the United States. The introduction of Temporaray Assistance to Needy Families of 1996 has been accelerating the trend. What is going to happen to welfare recipients? This simple shift to the LFA model, however, will only see an alarming increase of working poor in a near future.

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