• Title/Summary/Keyword: Short supply

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Empirical Analysis on Bitcoin Price Change by Consumer, Industry and Macro-Economy Variables (비트코인 가격 변화에 관한 실증분석: 소비자, 산업, 그리고 거시변수를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Junsik;Kim, Keon-Woo;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.195-220
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    • 2018
  • In this study, we conducted an empirical analysis of the factors that affect the change of Bitcoin Closing Price. Previous studies have focused on the security of the block chain system, the economic ripple effects caused by the cryptocurrency, legal implications and the acceptance to consumer about cryptocurrency. In various area, cryptocurrency was studied and many researcher and people including government, regardless of country, try to utilize cryptocurrency and applicate to its technology. Despite of rapid and dramatic change of cryptocurrencies' price and growth of its effects, empirical study of the factors affecting the price change of cryptocurrency was lack. There were only a few limited studies, business reports and short working paper. Therefore, it is necessary to determine what factors effect on the change of closing Bitcoin price. For analysis, hypotheses were constructed from three dimensions of consumer, industry, and macroeconomics for analysis, and time series data were collected for variables of each dimension. Consumer variables consist of search traffic of Bitcoin, search traffic of bitcoin ban, search traffic of ransomware and search traffic of war. Industry variables were composed GPU vendors' stock price and memory vendors' stock price. Macro-economy variables were contemplated such as U.S. dollar index futures, FOMC policy interest rates, WTI crude oil price. Using above variables, we did times series regression analysis to find relationship between those variables and change of Bitcoin Closing Price. Before the regression analysis to confirm the relationship between change of Bitcoin Closing Price and the other variables, we performed the Unit-root test to verifying the stationary of time series data to avoid spurious regression. Then, using a stationary data, we did the regression analysis. As a result of the analysis, we found that the change of Bitcoin Closing Price has negative effects with search traffic of 'Bitcoin Ban' and US dollar index futures, while change of GPU vendors' stock price and change of WTI crude oil price showed positive effects. In case of 'Bitcoin Ban', it is directly determining the maintenance or abolition of Bitcoin trade, that's why consumer reacted sensitively and effected on change of Bitcoin Closing Price. GPU is raw material of Bitcoin mining. Generally, increasing of companies' stock price means the growth of the sales of those companies' products and services. GPU's demands increases are indirectly reflected to the GPU vendors' stock price. Making an interpretation, a rise in prices of GPU has put a crimp on the mining of Bitcoin. Consequently, GPU vendors' stock price effects on change of Bitcoin Closing Price. And we confirmed U.S. dollar index futures moved in the opposite direction with change of Bitcoin Closing Price. It moved like Gold. Gold was considered as a safe asset to consumers and it means consumer think that Bitcoin is a safe asset. On the other hand, WTI oil price went Bitcoin Closing Price's way. It implies that Bitcoin are regarded to investment asset like raw materials market's product. The variables that were not significant in the analysis were search traffic of bitcoin, search traffic of ransomware, search traffic of war, memory vendor's stock price, FOMC policy interest rates. In search traffic of bitcoin, we judged that interest in Bitcoin did not lead to purchase of Bitcoin. It means search traffic of Bitcoin didn't reflect all of Bitcoin's demand. So, it implies there are some factors that regulate and mediate the Bitcoin purchase. In search traffic of ransomware, it is hard to say concern of ransomware determined the whole Bitcoin demand. Because only a few people damaged by ransomware and the percentage of hackers requiring Bitcoins was low. Also, its information security problem is events not continuous issues. Search traffic of war was not significant. Like stock market, generally it has negative in relation to war, but exceptional case like Gulf war, it moves stakeholders' profits and environment. We think that this is the same case. In memory vendor stock price, this is because memory vendors' flagship products were not VRAM which is essential for Bitcoin supply. In FOMC policy interest rates, when the interest rate is low, the surplus capital is invested in securities such as stocks. But Bitcoin' price fluctuation was large so it is not recognized as an attractive commodity to the consumers. In addition, unlike the stock market, Bitcoin doesn't have any safety policy such as Circuit breakers and Sidecar. Through this study, we verified what factors effect on change of Bitcoin Closing Price, and interpreted why such change happened. In addition, establishing the characteristics of Bitcoin as a safe asset and investment asset, we provide a guide how consumer, financial institution and government organization approach to the cryptocurrency. Moreover, corroborating the factors affecting change of Bitcoin Closing Price, researcher will get some clue and qualification which factors have to be considered in hereafter cryptocurrency study.

Clinical Analysis of Arteriovenous Fistula in Chronic Renal Failure Patients (만성 신부전 환자에서의 동정맥루 조성술의 임상고찰)

  • Song Chang-Min;Ahn Jae-Bum;Kim In-Sub;Kim Woo-Sik;Shin Yong-Chul;Yoo Hwan-Kuk;Kim Byung-Yul
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.39 no.9 s.266
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    • pp.692-698
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    • 2006
  • Background: Owing to the fact that the average life span has increased and the progress in medical science has been made, the number of patients with chronic renal failure (CRF) who have to take hemodialysis (HD) has been going up gradually. Accordingly, it is considered to be as a significant issue to obtain blood vessels which can be used repetitively and supply enough blood flows. Therefore, there have been various kinds of study on an inosculation rate andfactors influencing it following an arteriovenous fistula (AV fistula) and lots of studies are ongoing for the purpose of escalating the inosculation rate. The authors analyzed the effects of short-term result, age, sex, diabetes and hypertension on arteriovenous inosculations in 134 anatomical snuffbox operated subjects among the patients who have taken an AV fistula at this center. Material and Method: Based on 134 patients who underwent an AV fistula at the department of thoracic surgery of this center from July, 2000 to May, 2004, the difference in arteriovenous inosculation rate was compared and analyzed depending or age (discriminated by 65-year-old), sex and the condition of the presence or absence of diabetes and hypertension. Correlation analyses were conducted for each parameter and statistical tests were performed by using SPSS for windows Release 11.0.1, which were determined to be statistically significant if p value was below 0.05. Result: The total number of operations was 169 including 35 of re-operations. The male/female rate was 70 : 64 (52% : 48%). The average age was $56.3{\pm}12.26$ years and there were 33 (24%) old aged patients above 65-year-old; there were 103 (71%) patients with hypertension and 90 (67%) patients with diabetes. Overall arteriovenous inosculation rate was $93{\pm}2.4%,\;91{\pm}2.7%,\;89{\pm}3.0%$ at 6, 12, 24 months, respectively. The arteriovenous inosculation rate of above 65-year-old patient group was $85{\pm}4.8%,\;80{\pm}5.8%,\;80{\pm}5.8%$ and below 64-year-old patient group's was $85{\pm}4.8%,\;80{\pm}5.8%,\;80{\pm}5.8%$ at given time points, respectively, which showed higher inosculation rate in below 64-year-old patient group with a statistical significance (p=0.0034). However, no statistical significance was found between the patients with hypertension and diabetes and the patients with no complication. In addition, there was no statistical significance in inosculation rate between male and female. Conclusion: The arteriovenous inosculation ratewas higher in the treated patient below 64-year-old than in the treated patient above 65-year-old. Thus it is advantageous for increase in long-term inosculation rate to obtain hemodialysis routes at an early age. The conditions of sex and the presence or absence of diabetes and hyper- tension do not make statistically significant effect on the arteriovenous inosculation rate.

Situation of Fertilizer Industry in Korea (비료산업(肥料産業)의 현황(現況)과 문제점(問題点))

  • Lee, Yun Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.34-48
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    • 1982
  • 1. Production and consumption of chemical fertilizers in Korea could be divided into five different phases of total imports, setting up fertilizer plants, self-sufficiency in production, net export, and diversification in compound fertilizers. Currently the nation has production capacity of 800 thousand M/T of nitrogen, 400 thousand M/T of phosphate ($P_2O_5$) and 200 thousand M/T of potash ($K_2O$). 2. Yearly consumption increased every year, since 1964, 28,000 M/T N, 7,700 M/T $P_2O_5$, and 7,500 M/T $K_2O$ until 1972, when the increase jumped by eight times for $P_2O_5$ and seven times for $K_2O$ for the following 3 years in anticipation of their short supply. Now total consumption has been more or less stabilized at the level of 450 thousand M/T N, 220 thousand M/T $P_2O_5$ and 180 thousand M/T $K_2O$ for the last 7 years. 3. Current operation rate of fertilizer plants is around 80% throughout the whole industry, after going through several different levels depending on demand at times. 4. Fertilizer export started in 1967 and reached a peak of 150 thousand nutrient ton in 1972, about 20% of total production, before temporarily stopping due to over-demand for next three years. The export resumed again in 1976 rise to the all time high of 670 thousand nutrient ton in 1980, almost half of total production, and then started to decline due to higher price of petroleum since then. 5. The decline in fertilizer export appears to be accelerated because several countries, in South-Eastern Asia, traditional export market for Korean fertilizers, started to build their own plants, since 1980, based on their raw materials of especially petroleum. 6. Current consumption in Korea is about 30 nutrient Kg per 10a, equivalent to that in Western European countries, partly due to new high-yielding rice varieties and extensive cultivation of fruit trees and vegetables. Additional fertilizer demand in future can be anticipated in reclaimed land for growing grass and forestry.

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Effect of Low Temperature Treatment of Seed Bulb and Planting Date on Plant Growth and Yield in Garlic (마늘의 파종기별(播種期別) 저온처리(低溫處理)의 차이(差異)가 생육(生育) 및 수량(收量)에 미치는 영향(影響))

  • Shin, Seong Lyon;Lee, Woo Sung
    • Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
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    • v.6
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    • pp.49-69
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    • 1988
  • In order to develop a cropping system that can produce garlic in the period of short supply from March to April, effects of low temperature treatment of seed bulbs and planting dates, starting date of low temperature treatment, days of low temperature treatment on plant growth, maturity and yield were studied in Southern strain, 'Namhae' and in Northern strain, 'Euiseong' of garlic (Allium sativum). The results obtained were as follows. In Sorthern strain, sprouting was significantly enhanced by low temperature treatment only in Sep. 14, and Sep. 29 plantings. Days to sprout were least in 30 days of low temperature treatment of Sep. 14 planting and in 45 days treatment of Sep. 29 planting. When considering on the beginning date of low temperature treatment, a marked difference was observed between treatments started before July 31 and after Aug. 15. Sprouting was most enhanced in 45 days low temperature treatment of Aug. 15 and Aug. 30 plantings. In Northern strain, sprouting was en hanced by low temperature treatment in planting from Sep. 29 to Nov. 13 and low temperature treatment for 60 days was most effective. Effect of low temperature treatment on early plant growth was observed in Sep. 14 and Sep. 29 plantings, but the effect on plant growth at intermediate stage or thereafter was observed in up to Oct. 29 plantings. Optimun days for low temperature treatment on growth enhancement was 45 and 60 days in Southern strain and 60 days in Northern strain in each planting dates. In Southern strain, the longer the low temperature treatment and the later the planting date the less the number of leaves developed. In Northern strain, normal leaves were not developed in plantings from Sep. 14 to Nov. 13. In Southern strain, clove differentiation and bulbing were earlist in 45 and 60 days treatment of Sep. 14, Sep. 29, and Oct. 14 planting initiated on July 31 and Aug. 15. In Northern strain, clove differentiation and bulbing were earlist in 60 days treatment of Oct. 14 planting initiated on Aug. 15 and Aug. 30. In treatment initiated later than above, longer the low temperature treatment the earlier the clove differentiation and bulbing in both Southern and Northern strains. The earlier the initiation date and the longer of low temperature treatment, the earlier bolting in southern strain. In Northern strain, bolting was most enhanced in 45 and 60 days of low temperature treatment initiated on Aug. 15 and Aug. 30. The longer the low temperature treatment in plantings thereafter, the earlier the bolting. The earlier the planting date garlic bulbs. Harvest date was earliest in 45 and 60 days low temperature treatment started from July 31 to Aug. 30 in Southern strain, and it was in 60 and 90 days low temperature treatment initiated from July 31 to Aug. 30 in Northern strain. Bulb weight was heaviest in 45 days low temperature treatment of Oct. 14 planting and next was in 45 days treatment of Sep. 29 planting in Southern strain. In Northern strain, bulb weight was heaviest in 60 days treatment of Oct. 14 planting and next was in 45 days treatment of Oct. 14 planting. When considered in the aspect of the beginning date of low temperature treatment, bulb weight was heaviest in 45 days treatment started on Aug. 30 in Southern strain and in 60 days treatment started on Aug. 15 in Northern strain. A high negative correlation between days to harvest and plant height on January 12, and a high positive correlation between days to harvest and days clove differentiation were observed. This indicates that enhanced plant growth and clove differentiation induced by low temperature treatment advanced the harvest date. A high negative correlation between bulb weight and days to clove differentiation, days to harvest suggests that the enhanced clove differentiation result and in heavier bulb weight. From the above results, it suggested that early crop of garlic can be harvested by planting at the period of Sep. 29 to Oct. 14 after 45 days of low temperature treatment of seed bulbs of Southern strain. Then harvest date can be shortened by 30 days compared to control and garlic can be harvested in early April.

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