• Title/Summary/Keyword: Shipping Cycle

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A Study on the Early Warning Model of Crude Oil Shipping Market Using Signal Approach (신호접근법에 의한 유조선 해운시장 위기 예측 연구)

  • Bong Keun Choi;Dong-Keun Ryoo
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.167-173
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    • 2023
  • The manufacturing industry is the backbone of the Korean economy. Among them, the petrochemical industry is a strategic growth industry, which makes a profit through reexports based on eminent technology in South Korea which imports all of its crude oil. South Korea imports whole amount of crude oil, which is the raw material for many manufacturing industries, by sea transportation. Therefore, it must respond swiftly to a highly volatile tanker freight market. This study aimed to make an early warning model of crude oil shipping market using a signal approach. The crisis of crude oil shipping market is defined by BDTI. The overall leading index is made of 38 factors from macro economy, financial data, and shipping market data. Only leading correlation factors were chosen to be used for the overall leading index. The overall leading index had the highest correlation coefficient factor of 0.499 two months ago. It showed a significant correlation coefficient five months ago. The QPS value was 0.13, which was found to have high accuracy for crisis prediction. Furthermore, unlike other previous time series forecasting model studies, this study quantitatively approached the time lag between economic crisis and the crisis of the tanker ship market, providing workers and policy makers in the shipping industry with an framework for strategies that could effectively deal with the crisis.

An Analysis of Physical Load of the Shipping Work in Cold Storage Warehouses (냉동창고 출하작업의 신체부담 분석에 관한 연구)

  • 장성록
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.192-198
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    • 1999
  • Work-related musculoskeletal disorders constitute a major source of employee disability and lost wages. Cumulative Trauma Disorders(CTD) refers to a category of physical conditions which result from chronic musculoskeletal injury. Assessment of CTD risk in industry at early stage allows for early control, a safe environment, and a healthier workforce. In this study, the physical load of the shipping work in the cold storage warehouse were especially investigated. Employees were working with almost unnatural posture in a very restricted work space. The questionnaire and biomechanical analysis were used to evaluate the physical load. Results from analyses showed that they were sufficiently exposed to CTD due to repetition and unnatural posture. Based on the analysis, ways for improving working conditions are proposed. The analysis and proposals in this paper will serve as a basic tool for designing/redesigning working environment such as improvement of tools and equipments, design of times for work/rest cycle.

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Analysis of Container Shipping Market Using Multivariate Time Series Models (다변량 시계열 모형을 이용한 컨테이너선 시장 분석)

  • Ko, Byoung-Wook;Kim, Dae-Jin
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.61-72
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    • 2019
  • In order to enhance the competitiveness of the container shipping industry and promote its development, based on the empirical analyses using multivariate time series models, this study aims to suggest a few strategies related to the dynamics of the container shipping market. It uses the vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction (VEC) models as analytical methodologies. Additionally, it uses the annual trade volumes, fleets, and freight rates as the dataset. According to the empirical results, we can infer that the most exogenous variable, the trade volume, exerted the highest influence on the total dynamics of the container shipping market. Based on these empirical results, this study suggests some implications for ship investment, freight rate forecasting, and the strategies of shipping firms. Concerning ship investment, since the exogenous trade volume variable contributes most to the uncertainty of freight rates, corporate finance can be considered more appropriate for container ship investment than project finance. Concerning the freight rate forecasting, the VAR and VEC models use the past information and the cointegrating regression model assumes future information, and hence the former models are found better than the latter model. Finally, concerning the strategies of shipping firms, this study recommends the use of cycle-linked repayment scheme and services contract.

Analysis of the Synchronization between Global Dry Bulk Market and Chinese Container Market (글로벌 건화물 운임시장과 중국 컨테이너 운임시장 간의 동조성 분석)

  • Kim, Hyun-Sok;Chang, Myung-Hee
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.25-32
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this investigation is to analyze the synchronization between the representative global freight index, the Baltic Dry bulk Index (BDI) and the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) with monthly data from 2000 to 2016. Using the non-stationarity of the business cycle that is able to include common trends, we employ the Engle-Granger 2 stage co-integration test and found no synchronization. On the contrary, we additionally estimated the causality between the markets and revealed the causality, which implies that the Chinese economy has a significant effect on the global market. The results of this empirical analysis demonstrate that the CCFI of China is appropriate for analyzing the shipping industry. In practice, this means that it is more appropriate to include CCFI in the global market outlook than use it as a substitute for the global freight rate index, the BDI. This is a case study of the synchronization of the economic fluctuations of the shipping industry. It suggests that the economic fluctuations of China need to be considered in the unstable global market forecast. In particular, this case applies to the fluctuations in the shipping industry synchronism and provides important results in scientific terms.

Thermodynamic Analysis of Trilateral Cycle Applied to Exhaust Gas of Marine Diesel Engine (선박용 디젤엔진의 배기가스에 적용된 3 변 사이클의 열역학적 분석)

  • Choi, Byung-Chul;Kim, Young-Min
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.36 no.9
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    • pp.937-944
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    • 2012
  • The thermodynamic characteristics of a trilateral cycle with water as a working fluid have been theoretically investigated for an electric generation system to recover the waste heat of the exhaust gas from a diesel engine used for the propulsion of a large ship. As a result, when a heat source was given, the efficiencies of energy and exergy were maximized by the specific conditions of the pressure and mass flow rate for the working fluid at the turbine(expander) inlet. In this case, as the condensation temperature increased, the volume expansion ratio of the turbine could be reduced properly; however, the exergy loss of the heat source and exergy destruction of the condenser increased. Therefore, in order to recover the waste exergy from the topping cycle, the combined cycle with a bottoming cycle such as an organic Rankine cycle, which is utilized at relatively low temperatures, was found to be useful.

A Comparative Study on Productivity of Next Generation Quay Crane in Container Terminal (컨테이너 터미널의 차세대 안벽크레인 생산성 비교분석)

  • Ha Tae-Young;Choi Yong-Seok
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.297-302
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    • 2004
  • This paper analyzed productivity of quay cranes on container terminal that have perpendicular yard layout block. In most existing container terminals, quay cranes of single trolley type are used to loading and unloading containers, but quay crane productivity of these type has many limitation about large size containership. For these reasons, recently quay cranes of various type that mn improve productivity are developed and as the representative example, dual trolley, double trolley, supertainer are developing. These cranes are realized that very high productivity bemuse their cycle time is short more than existent single trolley quay crane. Therefore, we analyzed productivity of these cranes that are realized by next generation crane alternatives and as result qf this research, mechaniml productivity by cycle time and net productivity by simulation were measured.

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Comparative Analysis of SOx Emission-Compliant Options for Marine Vessels from Environmental Perspective

  • Jeong, Byongug
    • Journal of Power System Engineering
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.72-78
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    • 2018
  • With growing concerns over air pollutions attributed to shipping activities, the international maritime organization has enacted a series of stringent regulations. In particular, MARPOL Annex IV Reg. 16 requires sulfur contents from exhaust gases of marine engines to be progressively reduced. To comply with this regulation, three feasible options have been introduced: using LNG as a marine fuel, using heavy fuel oil with the scrubber system, and using the marine gas oil (a type of low sulfur fuel oil). For the objectives of this paper, the holistic environmental impacts pertinent to these options were investigated and compared in ways that the flows of energy and emission were tracked and quantified through the life cycle of the ship. Research findings obtained from a case study with a large bulk carrier showed that the use of the scrubber system to purify heavy fuel oil would produce relatively fewer amounts of emissions attributing to global warming than other two options. On the other than, the use of LNG would be the way to operate the ship in a cleaner way in terms of reducing the acidification, eutrophication, and photochemical effects. Throughout the analysis, the excellence of life cycle assessment was proven to shift the environmental impact of marine systems from the short-term view to the long-term one.

A Study on the Development of Decision Support System for Tanker Scheduling (유조선 운항일정계획 의사결정지원 시스템의 개발에 관한 연구)

  • 김시화;이희용
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 1996.04a
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    • pp.59-76
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    • 1996
  • Vessels in the world merchant fleet generally operate in either liner or bulk trade. The supply and the demand trend of general cargo ship are both on the ebb however those trend of tankers and containers are ins light ascension. Oil tankers are so far the largest single vessel type in the world fleet and the tanker market is often cited as a texbook example of perfect competition. Some shipping statistics in recent years show that there has been a radical fluctuation in spot charter rate under easy charter's market. This implies that the proper scheduling of tankers under spot market fluctuation has the great potential of improving the owner's profit and economic performance of shipping. This paper aims at developing the TS-DSS(Decision Support System for Tanker Scheduling) in the context of the importance of scheduling decisions. TS-DSS is defined as a DSS based on the optimization models for tanker scheduling. The system has been developed through the life cycle of systems analysis design and implementation to be user-friendly system. The performance of the system has been tested and examined by using the data edited under several tanker scheduling has been tested and examined by using the data edited under several tanker scheduling scenarios and thereby the effectiveness of TS-DSS is validated satisfactorily. The authors conclude the paper with the comments of the need of appropriate support environment such as data-based DSS and network system for successful implementatio of the TS-DSS.

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Measuring the Efficiency of Maritime Transport Companies

  • Kang, Hyo-Won;Kim, Young-Min
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.15 no.11
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    • pp.59-72
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    • 2017
  • Purpose - This paper evaluated the efficiency performance of the three major maritime transport markets and examined the determinants of the performance. The firms' revenue fluctuates with the changes of the economic cycle; hence it is important for them to set up business strategies to improve efficiencies. A lack of efficiency measurements for shipping firms leads to a significant gap in determining their overall performance. Research design, data, and methodology - Each of DEA scores was adopted for the evaluation and panel regression was used to examine the impact of determinants on the performance. The analysis included 50 shipping firms from three maritime transport markets as follows; 15 firms of container liners, 18 firms of bulk carrier and 17 firms of tanker carriers, and its period was from 2010 to 2016. Results - In the CCR model, container liners were the highest, tanker carriers were the second, and bulk carriers were the lowest in operation efficiency and financial efficiency. By region, operation efficiency and financial efficiency was high in the order of America, Asia, and Europe. Conclusions - This study suggests business strategies for maritime transport companies based on the analytical results of determinants of operational and financial efficiency.

A Study on the Development of a Decision Support System for Tanker Scheduling (유조선 운항 일정계획 의사결정 지원시스템의 개발에 관한 연구)

  • 김시화;이희용
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.27-46
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    • 1996
  • Vessles in the world merchant fleet generally operate in either liner or bulk trade. The supply and the demand trend of general cargo ship are both on the ebb, however, those trend of tankers and containers are in slight ascension. Oil tankers are so far the largest single vessel type in the world fleet and the tanker market is often cited as a textbook example of perfect competition. Some shipping statistics in recent years show that there has been a radical fluctuation in spot charter rate under easy charterer's market. This implys that the proper scheduling of tankers under spot market fluctuation has the great potential of improving the owner's profit and economic performance of shipping. This paper aims at developing the TS-DSS(Decision Support System for Tanker Scheduling) in the context of the importance of scheduling decisions. The TS-DSS is defined as the DSS based on the optimization models for tanker scheduling. The system has been developed through the life cycle of systems analysis, design, and implementation to be user-friendly system. The performance of the system has been tested and examined by using the data edited under several tanker scheduling scenarios and thereby the effectiveness of TS-DSS is validated satifactorily. The authors conclude the paper with the comments on the need of appropriate support environment such as data-based DSS and network system for succesful implementation of the TS-DSS.

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