• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.119-126
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• 2002

A reliability analysis is performed to investigate the influence of the uncertainty from few in-situ samples and inherent heterogeneity of the ground on the probability of failure for a rock cut slope. The results are compared with those of deterministic slope stability analysis. The random variables used are unit weight of the rock, the angle of potential slope of failure, and cohesion and internal friction angle of joints. It was found that the rock slope in which the factor of safety satisfied the minimum safety factor in the deterministic analysis has high probability of failure in the reliability analysis when the weak geological strata are involved in the cut slope. The probability of failure of rock slope is most sensitive to the mean and standard deviation of cohesion in rock joint among the random soil parameters included in the reliability analysis. Sensitivities of the mean values are larger than those of standard deviations, which means that accurate estimation of the mean for the in-situ geotechnical properties is important.

• Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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• v.43 no.5
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• pp.517-521
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• 1999

Gas chromatography using sulfur chemiluminescence detection (GC-SCD) which exhibits very good selectivity, linearity, and sensitivity was applied to the analysis of suIfur compounds in gaseous fuel. The expectmental method used in this study was to resolve the problems of repeatability and reproducibility by means of the adsorption of sulfur compounds, which is different from the existing analysis method of these compounds by GC-SCD. The calibration curves of the standard gases including dimethyl sulfide, t-butylmercaptan and ethyl methyl sulfide exhibited an excellent linearity. As the result of precision tests for the above three compounds, the high reproducibility for tests showed while repeating three times during four days, respectively. In addition, the coefficient of variation was less than 3%. In consequence, the expectmental method of this study is very effective not only with low uncertainty but also with better accuracy, which can quickly determine the concentration of gas odorants in LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) from oil reservoirs and filling stations.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.32 no.7
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• pp.126-132
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• 2004

Thermal control of satellite propellant tank is achieved by patch heaters enabled by thermostat's behavior. It is important to attach the thermostat on the appropriate position of the propellant tank. However its position cannot be given with exact numerics because tank is spherical. In practice, the thermostat position is designated approximately in a relevant drawing approximately, thereby an engineer practices depending on his own experience and intuition. The sensitivity analysis for the position of thermostat is performed such that the influence on the thermal behavior and control of tank is examined quantatively. When assembling tank module, the reasonable performance on the thermal control is believed with possible human errors if the uncertainty in the position of thermostat is not quite large.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2016.05a
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• pp.516-516
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• 2016

기후변화는 농업생산량 감소와 식량 안보 문제와 같이 농업에 심각한 영향을 미칠 수 있다. 또한 기존의 농업수리 및 관개배수 시설 운영에 영향을 줄 수 있다. 따라서 지속가능한 농업 수자원 관리를 위해서는 기후변화의 영향을 고려한 장기적인 계획 수립이 필요하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 논벼 지역의 설계용수량의 확률론적 분석을 통한 논벼 필요수량 및 설계용수량에 대한 기후변화영향 평가를 실시하였다. 이를 위해서 본 연구에서는 23개 GCM의 36개 산출물을 활용하여 Multi-model ensemble 구축하였다. 먼저 GCM별 증발산량과 유효우량을 산정한 결과 중부지역에서는 IPSL-CM5A 모델의 기후변화자료를 활용할 경우 증발산량과 유효우량이 타 GCM 모델들과 비하여 크게 산정되었다. 남부지역에서는 CanESM2 모델을 적용할 경우 가장 많은 증발산량과 유효우량이 모의되는 것으로 나타났다. 이처럼 GCM별로 다양한 결과가 모의되기 때문에 농업시설 설계에 적용되는 설계용수량의 경우 안전성을 위하여 Multi-GCM models을 활용할 필요가 있다. Multi-model ensemble의 RCP 4.5와 RCP 8.5 시나리오를 적용한 결과, 모든 경우에서 1995s(1981-2014)에 비해 설계용수량은 점차적으로 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 평균 증가율은 RCP 4.5에서 중부지역이 9.4%, 남부지역이 6.0% 증가하는 것으로 나타난 반면, RCP 8.5에서는 중부지역이 11.1%, 남부지역이 8.2% 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 여러 GCM 산출물간의 불확실성은 RCP 4.5보다는 RCP 8.5 시나리오가, 중부 지역보다는 남부 지역이, 논벼 증발산량 보다는 유효우량이 더 큰 것으로 분석되었다. 본 연구는 향후 미래 가뭄 위험성을 최소화하기 위한 농업 수자원관리 전략수립에 활용될 수 있을 것이다. 또한 본 연구결과는 기후변화 영향 평가에 있어서 적합한 GCM 자료를 선택하는데 있어, 불확실성을 가늠할 수 있는 유용한 척도로 이용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.158-169
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• 2019

A probabilistic model that can predict the residual useful lifetime of structure is formulated by using the gamma process which is one of the stochastic processes. The formulated stochastic model can take into account both the sampling uncertainty associated with damages measured up to now and the temporal uncertainty of cumulative damage over time. A method estimating several parameters of stochastic model is additionally proposed by introducing of the least square method and the method of moments, so that the age of a structure, the operational environment, and the evolution of damage with time can be considered. Some features related to the residual useful lifetime are firstly investigated into through the sensitivity analysis on parameters under a simple setting of single damage data measured at the current age. The stochastic model are then applied to the rubble-mound breakwater straightforwardly. The parameters of gamma process can be estimated for several experimental data on the damage processes of armor rocks of rubble-mound breakwater. The expected damage levels over time, which are numerically simulated with the estimated parameters, are in very good agreement with those from the flume testing. It has been found from various numerical calculations that the probabilities exceeding the failure limit are converged to the constraint that the model must be satisfied after lasting for a long time from now. Meanwhile, the expected residual useful lifetimes evaluated from the failure probabilities are seen to be different with respect to the behavior of damage history. As the coefficient of variation of cumulative damage is becoming large, in particular, it has been shown that the expected residual useful lifetimes have significant discrepancies from those of the deterministic regression model. This is mainly due to the effect of sampling and temporal uncertainties associated with damage, by which the first time to failure tends to be widely distributed. Therefore, the stochastic model presented in this paper for predicting the residual useful lifetime of structure can properly implement the probabilistic assessment on current damage state of structure as well as take account of the temporal uncertainty of future cumulative damage.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.55 no.1
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• pp.1-17
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• 2022

The mechanical and thermal properties of the rock masses can affect the performance associated with both the isolating and retarding capacities of radioactive materials within the deep geological disposal system for High-Level Radioactive Waste (HLW). In this study, the essential parameters for the site descriptive model (SDM) related to the rock mechanics and thermal properties of the HLW disposal facilities site were reviewed, and the technical background was explored through the cases of the preceding site descriptive models developed by SKB (Swedish Nuclear and Fuel Management Company), Sweden and Posiva, Finland. SKB and Posiva studied parameters essential for the investigation and evaluation of mechanical and thermal properties, and derived a rock mechanics site descriptive model for safety evaluation and construction of the HLW disposal facilities. The rock mechanics SDM includes the results obtained from investigation and evaluation of the strength and deformability of intact rocks, fractures, and fractured rock masses, as well as the geometry of large-scaled deformation zones, the small-scaled fracture network system, thermal properties of rocks, and the in situ stress distribution of the disposal site. In addition, the site descriptive model should provide the sensitivity analysis results for the input parameters, and present the results obtained from evaluation of uncertainty.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.217-217
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• 2015

The objective of this study was mainly to evaluate the water resources potential of Lake Tana Basin (LTB) by using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). From SWAT simulation of LTB, about 5236 km2 area of LTB is gauged watershed and the remaining 9878 km2 area is ungauged watershed. For calibration of model parameters, four gauged stations were considered namely: Gilgel Abay, Gummera, Rib, and Megech. The SWAT-CUP built-in techniques, particle swarm optimization (PSO) and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method was used for calibration of model parameters and PSO method were selected for the study based on its performance results in four gauging stations. However the level of sensitivity of flow parameters differ from catchment to catchment, the curve number (CN2) has been found the most sensitive parameters in all gauged catchments. To facilitate the transfer of data from gauged catchments to ungauged catchments, clustering of hydrologic response units (HRUs) were done based on physical similarity measured between gauged and ungauged catchment attributes. From SWAT land use/ soil use/slope reclassification of LTB, a total of 142 HRUs were identified and these HRUs are clustered in to 39 similar hydrologic groups. In order to transfer the optimized model parameters from gauged to ungauged catchments based on these clustered hydrologic groups, this study evaluates three parameter transfer schemes: parameters transfer based on homogeneous regions (PT-I), parameter transfer based on global averaging (PT-II), and parameter transfer by considering Gilgel Abay catchment as a representative catchment (PT-III) since its model performance values are better than the other three gauged catchments. The performance of these parameter transfer approach was evaluated based on values of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R2). The computed NSE values was found to be 0.71, 0.58, and 0.31 for PT-I, PT-II and PT-III respectively and the computed R2 values was found to be 0.93, 0.82, and 0.95 for PT-I, PT-II, and PT-III respectively. Based on the performance evaluation criteria, PT-I were selected for modelling ungauged catchments by transferring optimized model parameters from gauged catchment. From the model result, yearly average stream flow for all homogeneous regions was found 29.54 m3/s, 112.92 m3/s, and 130.10 m3/s for time period (1989 - 2005) for region-I, region-II, and region-III respectively.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.43 no.1
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• pp.43-54
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• 2023

Due to climate change, drought and flood occurrences have been increasing. Accurate projections of watershed discharges are imperative to effectively manage natural disasters caused by climate change. However, climate change and hydrological model uncertainty can lead to imprecise analysis. To address this issues, we used two lumped models, IHACRES and GR4J, to compare and analyze the changes in discharges under climate stress scenarios. The Hapcheon and Seomjingang dam basins were the study site, and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and the Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) were used for parameter optimizations. Twenty years of discharge, precipitation, and temperature (1995-2014) data were used and divided into training and testing data sets with a 70/30 split. The accuracies of the modeled results were relatively high during the training and testing periods (NSE>0.74, KGE>0.75), indicating that both models could reproduce the previously observed discharges. To explore the impacts of climate change on modeled discharges, we developed climate stress scenarios by changing precipitation from -50 % to +50 % by 1 % and temperature from 0 ℃ to 8 ℃ by 0.1 ℃ based on two decades of weather data, which resulted in 8,181 climate stress scenarios. We analyzed the yearly maximum, abundant, and ordinary discharges projected by the two lumped models. We found that the trends of the maximum and abundant discharges modeled by IHACRES and GR4J became pronounced as changes in precipitation and temperature increased. The opposite was true for the case of ordinary water levels. Our study demonstrated that the quantitative evaluations of the model uncertainty were important to reduce the impacts of climate change on water resources.

• Korean Journal of Biological Psychiatry
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.45-52
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• 2018

Objectives The objective of this study was to investigate the differences in sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, temperaments, and quality of life between panic disorder (PD) patients with and without major depressive disorder (PD+MDD and PD-MDD patients, respectively). Methods We compared 411 PD-MDD and 219 PD+MDD patients. All patients who were drug-free for at least 1 month were assessed at initial outpatient visits before the administration of medication. The following instruments were used for assessment: the NEO Personality Inventory-Neuroticism (NEO-N) ; the Temperament and Character Inventory-Harm Avoidance (TCI-HA) ; the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI) ; the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale-Short (IUS); the Anxiety Sensitivity Index-Revised (ASI-R); the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) ; the Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI); the Penn State Worry Questionnaire (PSWQ) ; the Generalized Anxiety Disorder for 7 item (GAD-7) ; the Albany Panic and Phobia Questionnaire (APPQ) ; the Panic Disorder Severity Scale (PDSS) ; the Early Trauma Inventory Self Report-Short Form (ETISR-SF) ; the Scale for Suicidal Ideation (SSI) ; the World Health Organization Quality of Life Scale Abbreviated Version (WHOQOL-BREF) ; the Sheehan Disability Scale (SDS) ; and the Short Form health survey (SF-36). Results Compared to the PD-MDD patients, the PD+MDD patients were younger and more likely to be unmarried. They showed higher rates of unemployment, lower levels of education and income, younger age of onset, more previous suicide attempts, a greater incidence of agoraphobia, and more previous treatments. The PD+MDD patients showed significantly higher scores on the NEO-N, the TCI-HA, the STAI, the IUS, the ASI-R, the BDI, the BAI, the PSWQ, the GAD-7, the APPQ, the PDSS, the ETISR-SF, and the SSI. In addition, the PD+MDD patients showed significantly lower quality of life than did the PD-MDD patients. In contrast with previous studies, we observed no significant differences between the two groups in terms of gender, duration until treatment, and psychiatric comorbidities. Conclusions This study showed that the PD+MDD patients have more early trauma experiences, higher levels of anxiety-related temperaments, more severe panic and depressive symptoms, and lower quality of life than the PD-MDD patients.

• Korean Journal of Biological Psychiatry
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.136-144
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• 2010

Objectives : The $2^{nd}$ to $4^{th}$ digit length(2D : 4D) ratio reflects the amount of exposure and sensitivity to the prenatal sex hormone and it is considered to be the most convenient and useful way to understand the influence of sex hormone in the determination of human behavioral traits. This study was carried out to find the correlation between the 2D : 4D ratio and characteristics of temperament and character in Korean university students. We assumed that 2D : 4D ratio would show a strong correlation with temperament which is defined to be an inclination of an automatical emotional response to a stimulus. Methods : Participants were 104 university students who completed 2 self-report measures : Temperament and Character Inventory(TCI), Temperament Test. We examined the 2D : 4D ratio of each subject by measuring the lengths of the $2^{nd}$ and $4^{th}$ fingers using a photocopy measurement. We performed statistical analyses using correlation test and t-test to examine the relationship between 2D : 4D ratio and psychological characteristics. Results : We found out the typical sex difference in 2D : 4D ratio. Women had significantly higher 2D : 4D ratio than men. TCI-Character factor(TCI-C) didn't show any significant correlation with the 2D : 4D ratio. TCI-Tempterament factor(TCI-T) and the item of Temperament Test showed a significant correlation with the 2D : 4D ratio. In correlation analysis of the total group including all women and men, the 2D : 4D ratio showed a significant positive correlation in a subscale(shyness with stranger) of harm avoidance scales in TCI-T. In correlation analysis of women's group, the 2D : 4D ratio showed a significant positive correlation in two subscales( fear of uncertainty) and[shyness to stranger] of harm avoidance scales in TCI-T. In correlation analysis of men's group, the 2D : 4D ratio showed a significant negative correlation with a sanguine temperament item of the Temperament Test. Conclusion : The results suggest that the amount of exposure to sex hormone in the prenatal period seems to have an impact on the determination of temperament and characteristics.