• Title/Summary/Keyword: Sensitivity and Uncertainty

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Robust Design Optimization of a Fighter Wing Using an Uncertainty Model Constructed by Neural Network (신경망으로 구축된 불확실성 모델을 이용한 전투기 날개의 강건 최적 설계)

  • Kim, Ju-Hyun;Kim, Byung-Kon;Jun, Sang-Ook;Jeon, Yong-Hee;Lee, Dong-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.99-104
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    • 2008
  • This study performed robust design optimization of fighter wing planform, considering uncertainty based on neural network model. To construct uncertainty model, aerodynamic performance and their sensitivity were evaluated by 3-dimensional Euler equations and adjoint variable method at experimental points selected from central composite design. In addition, because a neural network model has the advantage of capturing non-linear characteristic, it was possible to predict sensitivity of the aerodynamic performance efficiently and accurately . From the results of robust design optimization, it could be confirmed that the robustness of the objective function and constraints were improved if the variation of uncertainty and sigma level were increased.

ASUSD nuclear data sensitivity and uncertainty program package: Validation on fusion and fission benchmark experiments

  • Kos, Bor;Cufar, Aljaz;Kodeli, Ivan A.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.7
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    • pp.2151-2161
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    • 2021
  • Nuclear data (ND) sensitivity and uncertainty (S/U) quantification in shielding applications is performed using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. In this paper the validation of the newly developed deterministic program package ASUSD (ADVANTG + SUSD3D) is presented. ASUSD was developed with the aim of automating the process of ND S/U while retaining the computational efficiency of the deterministic approach to ND S/U analysis. The paper includes a detailed description of each of the programs contained within ASUSD, the computational workflow and validation results. ASUSD was validated on two shielding benchmark experiments from the Shielding Integral Benchmark Archive and Database (SINBAD) - the fission relevant ASPIS Iron 88 experiment and the fusion relevant Frascati Neutron Generator (FNG) Helium Cooled Pebble Bed (HCPB) Test Blanket Module (TBM) mock-up experiment. The validation process was performed in two stages. Firstly, the Denovo discrete ordinates transport solver was validated as a standalone solver. Secondly, the ASUSD program package as a whole was validated as a ND S/U analysis tool. Both stages of the validation process yielded excellent results, with a maximum difference of 17% in final uncertainties due to ND between ASUSD and the stochastic ND S/U approach. Based on these results, ASUSD has proven to be a user friendly and computationally efficient tool for deterministic ND S/U analysis of shielding geometries.

Probabilistic sensitivity of base-isolated buildings to uncertainties

  • Gazi, Hatice;Alhan, Cenk
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.441-457
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    • 2018
  • Characteristic parameter values of seismic isolators deviate from their nominal design values due to uncertainties and/or errors in their material properties and element dimensions, etc. Deviations may increase over service life due to environmental effects and service conditions. For accurate evaluation of the seismic safety level, all such effects, which would result in deviations in the structural response, need to be taken into account. In this study, the sensitivity of the probability of failure of the structures equipped with nonlinear base isolation systems to the uncertainties in various isolation system characteristic parameters is investigated in terms of various isolation system and superstructure response parameters in the context of a realistic three-dimensional base-isolated building model via Monte Carlo Simulations. The inherent record-to-record variability nature of the earthquake ground motions is also taken into account by carrying out analyses for a large number of ground motion records which are classified as those with and without forward-directivity effects. Two levels of nominal isolation periods each with three different levels of uncertainty are considered. Comparative plots of cumulative distribution functions and related statistical evaluation presented here portray the potential extent of the deviation of the structural response parameters resulting from the uncertainties and the uncertainty levels considered, which is expected to be useful for practicing engineers in evaluating isolator test results for their projects.

NUCLEAR DATA UNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH XSUSA FOR FUEL ASSEMBLY DEPLETION CALCULATIONS

  • Zwermann, W.;Aures, A.;Gallner, L.;Hannstein, V.;Krzykacz-Hausmann, B.;Velkov, K.;Martinez, J.S.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.343-352
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    • 2014
  • Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses with respect to nuclear data are performed with depletion calculations for BWR and PWR fuel assemblies specified in the framework of the UAM-LWR Benchmark Phase II. For this, the GRS sampling based tool XSUSA is employed together with the TRITON depletion sequences from the SCALE 6.1 code system. Uncertainties for multiplication factors and nuclide inventories are determined, as well as the main contributors to these result uncertainties by calculating importance indicators. The corresponding neutron transport calculations are performed with the deterministic discrete-ordinates code NEWT. In addition, the Monte Carlo code KENO in multi-group mode is used to demonstrate a method with which the number of neutron histories per calculation run can be substantially reduced as compared to that in a calculation for the nominal case without uncertainties, while uncertainties and sensitivities are obtained with almost the same accuracy.

Design, Fabrication, Static Test and Uncertainty Analysis of a Resonant Microaccelerometer Using Laterally-driven Electrostatic Microactuator (수평구동형 정전 액추에이터를 이용한 금속형 공진가속도계의 설계, 제작, 정적시험 및 오차분석)

  • Seo, Yeong-Ho;Jo, Yeong-Ho
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.520-528
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    • 2001
  • This paper investigates a resonant microaccelerometer that measures acceleration using a built-in micromechanical resonator, whose resonant frequency is changed by the acceleration-induced axial force. A set of design equations for the resonant microaccelerometer has been developed, including analytic formulae for resonant frequency, sensitivity, nonlinearity and maximum stress. On this basis, the sizes of the accelerometer are designed for the sensitivity of 10$^3$Hz/g in the detection range of 5g, while satisfying the conditions for the maximum nonlinearity of 5%, the minimum shock endurance of 100g and the size constraints placed by microfabrication process. A set of the resonant accelerometers has been fabricated by the combined use of bulk-micromachining and surface-micromachining techniques. From a static test of the cantilever beam resonant accelerometer, a frequency shift of 860Hz has been measured for the proof-mass deflection of 4.3${\pm}$0.5$\mu\textrm{m}$; thereby resulting in the detection sensitivity of 1.10${\times}$10$^3$Hz/g. Uncertainty analysis of the resonant frequency output has been performed to identify important issues involved in the design, fabrication and testing of the resonant accelerometer.

A Study on Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Analysis for Continuous Stirred Tank Reactors (연속교반탱크 반응기에 대한 민감도 및 불확실성 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Kim In-Won;Jin Sang-Hwa;Kim In-Tea;Song Hee-Oeul;Yeo Yeong-Koo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.5 no.4 s.16
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    • pp.70-78
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    • 2001
  • In order to find out which equipment failures were mostly contributed to the rupture of a continuous stirred tank reactor, the sensitivity analysis was carried out. The uncertainty of likelihood of the rupture of reactor was studied by the uncertainty analysis. And the cost effectiveness analysis resulted in the recommendation of the exchange with a better reliable unit if you want to maintain the process efficiently from the view point of cost. The uncertainty analysis showed that the likelihood of catastrophic rupture of the reactor was distributed from $8.09{\times}10^{-04}$ to $5.50{\times}10^{-02}/year$. As a result of cost-effectiveness analysis, it was proposed to exchange the voting logic unit for a better safer system.

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Sensitivity study of parameters important to Molten Salt Reactor Safety

  • Sarah Elizabeth Creasman;Visura Pathirana;Ondrej Chvala
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.55 no.5
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    • pp.1687-1707
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    • 2023
  • This paper presents a molten salt reactor (MSR) design parameter sensitivity study using a nodal dynamic modelling methodology with explicitly modified point kinetics equation and Mann's model for heat transfer. Six parameters that can impact MSR safety are evaluated. A MATLAB-Simulink model inspired by Thorcon's 550MWth MSR is used for parameter evaluations. A safety envelope was formed to encapsulate power, maximum and minimum temperature, and temperature-induced reactivity feedback. The parameters are perturbed by ±30%. The parameters were then ranked by their subsequent impact on the considered safety envelope, which ranks acceptable parameter uncertainty. The model is openly available on GitHub.

Aircraft derivative design optimization considering global sensitivity and uncertainty of analysis models

  • Park, Hyeong-Uk;Chung, Joon;Lee, Jae-Woo
    • International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.268-283
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    • 2016
  • Aircraft manufacturing companies have to consider multiple derivatives to satisfy various market requirements. They modify or extend an existing aircraft to meet new market demands while keeping the development time and cost to a minimum. Many researchers have studied the derivative design process, but these research efforts consider baseline and derivative designs together, while using the whole set of design variables. Therefore, an efficient process that can reduce cost and time for aircraft derivative design is needed. In this research, a more efficient design process is proposed which obtains global changes from local changes in aircraft design in order to develop aircraft derivatives efficiently. Sensitivity analysis was introduced to remove unnecessary design variables that have a low impact on the objective function. This prevented wasting computational effort and time on low priority variables for design requirements and objectives. Additionally, uncertainty from the fidelity of analysis tools was considered in design optimization to increase the probability of optimization results. The Reliability Based Design Optimization (RBDO) and Possibility Based Design Optimization (PBDO) methods were proposed to handle the uncertainty in aircraft conceptual design optimization. In this paper, Collaborative Optimization (CO) based framework with RBDO and PBDO was implemented to consider uncertainty. The proposed method was applied for civil jet aircraft derivative design that increases cruise range and the number of passengers. The proposed process provided deterministic design optimization, RBDO, and PBDO results for given requirements.

Robust Servo Design and Application for Optical Disk Drive Using Robust Control Theory : H vs. QFT (광 디스크 드라이브 서보 설계를 위한 강건 제어 이론의 적용 및 평가 : H vs. QFT)

  • Lee, Kwang-Hyun;Yang, Hyunseok;Park, No-Cheol;Park, Young-Pil;Choi, Jin-Young
    • Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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    • v.15 no.10 s.103
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    • pp.1148-1159
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    • 2005
  • In this paper, the various uncertainties generated in an optical disk drive (ODD) and the robust servo designs considering the uncertainties are studied. First, the brief introduction an ODD and the servo error tolerance of it are discussed. Then, the classifications of uncertainty and the concept of relative stability are introduced. Considering the uncertainty of an ODD, two robust control approaches are applied: (i) mixed sensitivity approach in H$\infty$ control theory for unstructured uncertainty, (ii) QFT for structured uncertainty Finally, the designed controllers are realized by DSP, and these controllers are applied to a commercial DVD-ROM drive. From these experiments, we prove that the designed robust controllers have more good disturbance rejection performance and robustness when it is compared to the conventional lead-lag controller.

Development of Statistical Package for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis(SPUSA) and Application to High Level Waste Repostitory System (불확실도와 민감도 분석용 통계 패키지(SPUSA)개발 및 고준위 방사성 폐기물 처분 계통에의 응용)

  • Kim, Tae-Woon;Cho, Won-Jin;Chang, Soon-Heung;Le, Byung-Ho
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.249-265
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    • 1987
  • For the probabilistic risk assessment of the high level radioactive waste repository, some methods have been proposed up to now. Since the system has highly uncertain input parameters, the evaluated risk for some input parameter values has high uncertainty. In this paper, methods of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are devised to analyse systematically these factors and applied to a probabilistic risk assessment model of the high level waste repository, The statistical package SPUSA developed through this study can be used for any other fields, e.g., statistical thermal margin analysis, source term uncertainty analysis, etc.

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