• 한국항공우주학회지
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• 제46권5호
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• pp.393-401
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• 2018

고체 로켓 추진기관에서 우발점화를 방지하기 위해 사용하는 전자식 점화안전장치의 신뢰도 예측에 관하여 연구하였다. 신뢰도 예측을 위해 가장 먼저 점화안전장치의 주요 구성품(점화회로, 고전압 기폭관, 격벽착화기)을 정의하고, 각 구성품의 작동원리에 대해 시스템 분석을 수행하였다. 시스템 분석을 통해 선별된 입력 변수를 이용하여 각 부품의 성능 모델링을 수행하였으며, 복잡한 해석이 필요한 경우 반응표면기법을 이용하여 다항식으로 근사하였다. 마지막으로 만들어진 성능 모델링을 기반으로 몬테칼로 시뮬레이션을 적용하여 설계 신뢰도를 예측하였다.

• 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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• 제31권5호
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• pp.1-8
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• 2011

In this study, we performed a sensitivity analysis to see how the true north error of a wind direction vane installed to a meteorological mast affects predictions of the annual-average wind speed and the annual energy production. For this study, two meteorological masts were installed with a distance of about 4km on the ridge in complex terrain and the wind speed and direction were measured for one year. Cross predictions of the wind speed and the AEP of a virtual wind turbine for two sites in complex terrain were performed by changing the wind direction from $-45^{\circ}$ to $45^{\circ}$with an interval of $5^{\circ}$. A commercial wind resource prediction program, WindPRO, was used for the study. It was found that the prediction errors in the AEP caused by the wind direction errors occurred up to more than 20% depending on the orography and the main wind direction at that site.

• The Korean Journal of Pain
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• 제34권3호
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• pp.339-345
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• 2021

Background: Ultrasound-guided caudal epidural injection (CEI) is limited in that it cannot confirm drug distribution at the target site without fluoroscopy. We hypothesized that visualization of solution flow through the inter-laminar space of the lumbosacral spine using color Doppler ultrasound alone would allow for confirmation of drug distribution. Therefore, we aimed to prospectively evaluate the usefulness of this method by comparing the color Doppler image in the paramedian sagittal oblique view of the lumbosacral spine (LS-PSOV) with the distribution of the contrast medium observed during fluoroscopy. Methods: Sixty-five patients received a 10-mL CEI of solution containing contrast medium under ultrasound guidance. During injection, flow was observed in the LSPSOV using color Doppler ultrasonography, following which it was confirmed using fluoroscopy. The presence of contrast image at L5-S1 on fluoroscopy was defined as "successful CEI." We then calculated prediction accuracy for successful CEI using color Doppler ultrasonography in the LS-PSOV. We also investigated the correlation between the distribution levels measured via color Doppler and fluoroscopy. Results: Prediction accuracy with color Doppler ultrasonography was 96.9%. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 96.7%, 100%, 100%, and 60.0%, respectively. In 52 of 65 patients (80%), the highest level at which contrast image was observed was the same for both color Doppler ultrasonography and fluoroscopy. Conclusions: Our findings demonstrate that color Doppler ultrasonography in the LS-PSOV is a new method for determining whether a drug solution reaches the lumbosacral region (i.e., the main target level) without the need for fluoroscopy.

• Physical Therapy Rehabilitation Science
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• 제11권3호
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• pp.285-295
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• 2022

Objective: The purpose of this study is to use logistic regression and decision tree analysis to identify the factors that affect the success or failurein the national physical therapy examination; and to build and compare predictive models. Design: Secondary data analysis study Methods: We analyzed 76,727 subjects from the physical therapy national examination data provided by the Korea Health Personnel Licensing Examination Institute. The target variable was pass or fail, and the input variables were gender, age, graduation status, and examination area. Frequency analysis, chi-square test, binary logistic regression, and decision tree analysis were performed on the data. Results: In the logistic regression analysis, subjects in their 20s (Odds ratio, OR=1, reference), expected to graduate (OR=13.616, p<0.001) and from the examination area of Jeju-do (OR=3.135, p<0.001), had a high probability of passing. In the decision tree, the predictive factors for passing result had the greatest influence in the order of graduation status (x²=12366.843, p<0.001) and examination area (x²=312.446, p<0.001). Logistic regression analysis showed a specificity of 39.6% and sensitivity of 95.5%; while decision tree analysis showed a specificity of 45.8% and sensitivity of 94.7%. In classification accuracy, logistic regression and decision tree analysis showed 87.6% and 88.0% prediction, respectively. Conclusions: Both logistic regression and decision tree analysis were adequate to explain the predictive model. Additionally, whether actual test takers passed the national physical therapy examination could be determined, by applying the constructed prediction model and prediction rate.

• Animal Bioscience
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• 제34권10호
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• pp.1623-1631
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• 2021

Objective: This study aimed to validate and evaluate the dry matter (DM) intake prediction model of the Korean feeding standards for dairy cattle (KFSD). Methods: The KFSD DM intake (DMI) model was developed using a database containing the data from the Journal of Dairy Science from 2006 to 2011 (1,065 observations 287 studies). The development (458 observations from 103 studies) and evaluation databases (168 observations from 74 studies) were constructed from the database. The body weight (kg; BW), metabolic BW (BW^0.75, MBW), 4% fat-corrected milk (FCM), forage as a percentage of dietary DM, and the dietary content of nutrients (% DM) were chosen as possible explanatory variables. A random coefficient model with the study as a random variable and a linear model without the random effect was used to select model variables and estimate parameters, respectively, during the model development. The best-fit equation was compared to published equations, and sensitivity analysis of the prediction equation was conducted. The KFSD model was also evaluated using in vivo feeding trial data. Results: The KFSD DMI equation is 4.103 (±2.994)+0.112 (±0.022)×MBW+0.284 (±0.020)×FCM-0.119 (±0.028)×neutral detergent fiber (NDF), explaining 47% of the variation in the evaluation dataset with no mean nor slope bias (p>0.05). The root mean square prediction error was 2.70 kg/d, best among the tested equations. The sensitivity analysis showed that the model is the most sensitive to FCM, followed by MBW and NDF. With the in vivo data, the KFSD equation showed slightly higher precision (R² = 0.39) than the NRC equation (R² = 0.37), with a mean bias of 1.19 kg and no slope bias (p>0.05). Conclusion: The KFSD DMI model is suitable for predicting the DMI of lactating dairy cows in practical situations in Korea.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제33권1호
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• pp.1-9
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• 2023

The unconfined compression strength (UCS) of soils is commonly used either before or during the construction of geo-structures. In the pre-design stage, UCS as a mechanical property is obtained through a laboratory test that requires cumbersome procedures and high costs from in-situ sampling and sample preparation. As an alternative way, the empirical model established from limited testing cases is used to economically estimate the UCS. However, many parameters affecting the 1D soil compression response hinder employing the traditional statistical analysis. In this study, gene expression programming (GEP) is adopted to develop a prediction model of UCS with common affecting soil properties. A total of 79 undisturbed soil samples are collected, of which 54 samples are utilized for the generation of a predictive model and 25 samples are used to validate the proposed model. Experimental studies are conducted to measure the unconfined compression strength and basic soil index properties. A performance assessment of the prediction model is carried out using statistical checks including the correlation coefficient (R), the root mean square error (RMSE), the mean absolute error (MAE), the relatively squared error (RSE), and external criteria checks. The prediction model has achieved excellent accuracy with values of R, RMSE, MAE, and RSE of 0.98, 10.01, 7.94, and 0.03, respectively for the training data and 0.92, 19.82, 14.56, and 0.15, respectively for the testing data. From the sensitivity analysis and parametric study, the liquid limit and fine content are found to be the most sensitive parameters whereas the sand content is the least critical parameter.

• 한국인공지능학회지
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.11-15
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• 2018

Breast cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer related death among women. So prediction of overall survival status is important into decided in adjuvant treatment. Deep belief network is a kind of artificial intelligence (AI). We intended to construct prediction model by deep belief network using associated clinicopathologic factors. 103881 cases were found in the Korean Breast Cancer Registry. After preprocessing of data, a total of 15733 cases were enrolled in this study. The median follow-up period was 82.4 months. In univariate analysis for overall survival (OS), the patients with advanced AJCC stage showed relatively high HR (HR=1.216 95% CI: 0.011-289.331, p=0.001). Based on results of univariate and multivariate analysis, input variables for learning model included 17 variables associated with overall survival rate. output was presented in one of two states: event or cencored. Individual sensitivity of training set and test set for predicting overall survival status were 89.6% and 91.2% respectively. And specificity of that were 49.4% and 48.9% respectively. So the accuracy of our study for predicting overall survival status was 82.78%. Prediction model based on Deep belief network appears to be effective in predicting overall survival status and, in particular, is expected to be applicable to decide on adjuvant treatment after surgical treatment.

• 제어로봇시스템학회논문지
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.22-28
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• 2014

This paper proposes the fuzzy modeling and robust stability analysis of wind farm based on prediction model for wind speed. Owing to the sensitivity of wind speed, it is necessary to study the dynamic equation of the variable speed wind turbine. In this paper, based on the least-square method, the wind speed prediction model which is varied by the surrounding environment is proposed so that it is possible to evaluate the practicability of our model. And, we propose the composition of intelligent wind farm and use the fuzzy model which is suitable for the design of fuzzy controller. Finally, simulation results for wind farm which is modeled mathematically are demonstrated to visualize the feasibility of the proposed method.

• Advances in Computational Design
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• 제3권3호
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• pp.289-302
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• 2018

The use of optimum content of supplementary cementing materials (SCMs) such as limestone filler (LF) to blend with Portland cement has been resulted in many environmental and technical advantages, such as increase in physical properties, enhancement of sustainability in concrete industry and reducing $CO_2$ emission are well known. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been already applied in civil engineering to solve a wide variety of problems such as the prediction of concrete compressive strength. The feed forward back propagation (FFBP) algorithm and Tan-sigmoid transfer function were used for the ANNs training in this study. The training, testing and validation of data during the backpropagation training process yielded good correlations exceeding 97%. A parametric study was conducted to study the sensitivity of the developed model to certain essential parameters affecting the compressive strength of concrete. The effects and benefits of limestone filler on hardened properties of the concrete such as compressive strength were well established endorsing previous results in the literature. The results of this study revealed that the proposed ANNs model showed a high performance as a feasible and highly efficient tool for simulating the LF concrete compressive strength prediction.

• Computers and Concrete
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• 제11권4호
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• pp.337-350
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• 2013

The sensitivity of compressive strength of no-slump concrete to its ingredient materials and proportions, necessitate the use of robust models to guarantee both estimation and generalization features. It was known that the problem of compressive strength prediction owes high degree of complexity and uncertainty due to the variable nature of materials, workmanship quality, etc. Moreover, using the chemical and mineral additives, superimposes the problem's complexity. Traditionally this property of concrete is predicted by conventional linear or nonlinear regression models. In general, these models comprise lower accuracy and in most cases they fail to meet the extrapolation accuracy and generalization requirements. Recently, artificial intelligence-based robust systems have been successfully implemented in this area. In this regard, this paper aims to investigate the use of optimized support vector machine (SVM) to predict the compressive strength of no-slump concrete and compare with optimized neural network (ANN). The results showed that after optimization process, both models are applicable for prediction purposes with similar high-qualities of estimation and generalization norms; however, it was indicated that optimization and modeling with SVM is very rapid than ANN models.