• 제목/요약/키워드: Self-fulfilling Beliefs

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How to Recover From the Great Recession: The Case of a Two-Sector Small Open Economy with Traded and Non-Traded Capital

  • Jeon, Jong-Kyou
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • 제17권2호
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    • pp.161-206
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    • 2013
  • Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the world economy has been suffering from the Great Recession characterized by high and persistent unemployment as well as drastic fall in asset prices. Real business cycle theory or new-Keynesian economics which has been the dominant paradigm in macroeconomics for the last four decades is unable to explain the high and persistent unemployment during the Great Recession. This implies that the economics of Keynes should be taken seriously again as a tool to explain the Great Recession. Farmer (2012) proposes a new way of interpreting the economics of Keynes by providing it with a solid micro-foundation based on labor markets with search. According to Farmer (2012), aggregate economic activity independently depends on the long-term self-fulfilling expectations about the stock prices. As a consequence, the government or the central bank should implement a policy that influences the public's confidence about the stock market. For an open economy like the Korean economy, it is not only stock price but also the price of asset such as house that matters more for the aggregate economic activity. Households in the Korean economy hold more than 70 percent of their wealth in the form of real estate asset, especially housing asset. This makes the public's confidence about the future prices of houses even more important in explaining the business cycles of the Korean economy. Policymakers should implement policies to improve the confidence of households about the housing market to recover from the recession caused by a fall in house prices. Little theoretical work has been done in explaining fluctuations in the aggregate economic activity from the point of house prices. This paper develops a small open economy model with traded and non-traded capital based on Farmer (2012) and shows that the aggregate economic activity also independently depends on the households' self-fulfilling expectations about the future prices of non-traded asset such as houses.

헤도닉 정보시스템의 지속적인 사용에 관한 연구: UCC를 중심으로 (IS Continuance of Hedonic Information Systems)

  • 서호철;안중호;양지윤
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • 제17권3호
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    • pp.25-53
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    • 2007
  • The Expectation Confirmation Model (ECM) of information systems investigates the continued information systems usage behavior. This paper expands the original post-adoption beliefs and searches the applications in the emerging hedonic information systems. Previous IS researches focused on the organizational environments. However as the information technology (especially internet) evolves, information systems have not only emerged for the organizations but also for the individual users, such as internet portals, internet communities, on-line games etc. These information systems so called Hedonic Information Systems aims to provide self-fulfilling value rather than instrumental value to the users. Researches in other disciplines, including marketing and consumer behavior research, illustrate that the hedonic and utilitarian perspective of goods and services have different influence on the consumer behavior. Goods and services used to be classified into either hedonic or utilitarian aspect but now they may belong to both aspects simultaneously. Moreover consumer's goals or tasks have both hedonic utilitarian aspects. When a consumer makes a decision to purchase or repurchase goods or services, he/she compares the hedonic and utilitarian perspectives of goods to find most suitable ones to satisfy their goals/tasks. Finally, consumer's behavior is determined by the trade-off between what the goods can provide to the consumers and in what extent the goods fulfill consumer's purchase behavior. Consumer also shows that the salience of hedonic perspective is relatively greater when consumer decides which of several items to give up (forfeiture choices) than the time when they decide which item to acquire (acquisition choices). Some researches in MIS discipline have found out that the information systems also have both hedonic and utilitarian perspectives. The decision process of whether to use information systems or not is similar to that of a consumer's decision of purchasing or repurchasing goods or services. However most of researches in MIS tend to focus on the extrinsic motivation variables which only cover the utilitarian perspective of information systems. It is only recent that researches start to investigate the intrinsic motivation variable - Perceived Enjoyment - for the hedonic perspective. Considering the consumer's purchasing decision process, users of information systems evaluate the systems through balancing between intrinsic (hedonic) and extrinsic (utilitarian) variables according to their main tasks or tendencies. This paper proposes a model that is based on the ECM of IS Continuance model modified from Expectation Confirmation Model to fit into the continued usage of information system. It first started from the decision process regarding hedonic and utilitarian perspectives in the consumer behavior literatures. The model deals with continued usage of information systems beyond the mere technology adoption as in most of the previous MIS researches. This research is particularly important to the hedonic information systems, because their business model depends on the frequent usages rather simple adoption at the beginning. Because the basic model only considered the extrinsic motivations (perceived usefulness) to explain the users' behavior and as the information systems can have both hedonic and utilitarian dimensions, it should consider both perspectives. Therefore, this newly proposed model considers intrinsic variable (perceived enjoyment) as well. Since the individual user can have a preference on either aspects that is between the hedonic and utilitarian perspective depending on his/her main tasks or goals, some variables (Hedonic Orientation and Utilitarian Orientation) meaning the extents of users' pursuing from the information system were additionally studied.

정보시스템의 지속적 사용에서 경험의 역할에 대한 분석 (An Analysis of the Roles of Experience in Information System Continuance)

  • 이웅규
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • 제21권4호
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    • pp.45-62
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    • 2011
  • The notion of information systems (IS) continuance has recently emerged as one of the most important research issues in the field of IS. A great deal of research has been conducted thus far on the basis of theories adapted from various disciplines including consumer behaviors and social psychology, in addition to theories regarding information technology (IT) acceptance. This previous body of knowledge provides a robust research framework that can already account for the determination of IS continuance; however, this research points to other, thus-far-unelucidated determinant factors such as habit, which were not included in traditional IT acceptance frameworks, and also re-emphasizes the importance of emotion-related constructs such as satisfaction in addition to conscious intention with rational beliefs such as usefulness. Experiences should also be considered one of the most important factors determining the characteristics of information system (IS) continuance and the features distinct from those determining IS acceptance, because more experienced users may have more opportunities for IS use, which would allow them more frequent use than would be available to less experienced or non-experienced users. Interestingly, experience has dual features that may contradictorily influence IS use. On one hand, attitudes predicated on direct experience have been shown to predict behavior better than attitudes from indirect experience or without experience; as more information is available, direct experience may render IS use a more salient behavior, and may also make IS use more accessible via memory. Therefore, experience may serve to intensify the relationship between IS use and conscious intention with evaluations, On the other hand, experience may culminate in the formation of habits: greater experience may also imply more frequent performance of the behavior, which may lead to the formation of habits, Hence, like experience, users' activation of an IS may be more dependent on habit-that is, unconscious automatic use without deliberation regarding the IS-and less dependent on conscious intentions, Furthermore, experiences can provide basic information necessary for satisfaction with the use of a specific IS, thus spurring the formation of both conscious intentions and unconscious habits, Whereas IT adoption Is a one-time decision, IS continuance may be a series of users' decisions and evaluations based on satisfaction with IS use. Moreover. habits also cannot be formed without satisfaction, even when a behavior is carried out repeatedly. Thus, experiences also play a critical role in satisfaction, as satisfaction is the consequence of direct experiences of actual behaviors. In particular, emotional experiences such as enjoyment can become as influential on IS use as are utilitarian experiences such as usefulness; this is especially true in light of the modern increase in membership-based hedonic systems - including online games, web-based social network services (SNS), blogs, and portals-all of which attempt to provide users with self-fulfilling value. Therefore, in order to understand more clearly the role of experiences in IS continuance, analysis must be conducted under a research framework that includes intentions, habits, and satisfaction, as experience may not only have duration-based moderating effects on the relationship between both intention and habit and the activation of IS use, but may also have content-based positive effects on satisfaction. This is consistent with the basic assumptions regarding the determining factors in IS continuance as suggested by Oritz de Guinea and Markus: consciousness, emotion, and habit. The principal objective of this study was to explore and assess the effects of experiences in IS continuance, with special consideration given to conscious intentions and unconscious habits, as well as satisfaction. IN service of this goal, along with a review of the relevant literature regarding the effects of experiences and habit on continuous IS use, this study suggested a research model that represents the roles of experience: its moderating role in the relationships of IS continuance with both conscious intention and unconscious habit, and its antecedent role in the development of satisfaction. For the validation of this research model. Korean university student users of 'Cyworld', one of the most influential social network services in South Korea, were surveyed, and the data were analyzed via partial least square (PLS) analysis to assess the implications of this study. In result most hypotheses in our research model were statistically supported with the exception of one. Although one hypothesis was not supported, the study's findings provide us with some important implications. First the role of experience in IS continuance differs from its role in IS acceptance. Second, the use of IS was explained by the dynamic balance between habit and intention. Third, the importance of satisfaction was confirmed from the perspective of IS continuance with experience.