• Title/Summary/Keyword: Seismic failure probability

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The Comparison of Seismic Capacities Of Two Approaches, Probabilistic Approach and Deterministic Approach (확률론적 평가법과 결정론적 평가법에 의한 내진성능비교분석)

  • 송정국;황규호;강선구;서용표;이종림
    • Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2003.03a
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    • pp.101-109
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    • 2003
  • In evaluating the individual Plant Examination of Seismic Events, two methodologies, Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment(SPRA) and Seismic Margin Assessment(SMA) can be used. SPRA is based on the probubilistic approach and SMA is based on the deterministic approach in evaluating seismic capacities. In this paper, by evaluating the seismic capacities of the same component by these two approaches respectively, the correlation of two methodologies can be shown. In addition, the meaning of HCLPF(High Confidence of Low Probability of Failure) values that are inherent in these two methodologies is recognized by the quantitative comparison analysis.

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A Study on Seismic Performance Improvement of Nuclear Piping System through Dynamic Absorber (동흡진기를 사용한 원전 배관계 내진성능 상향에 대한 연구)

  • Kwag, Shinyoung;Kwak, Jinsung;Lee, Hwanho;Oh, Jinho;Koo, Gyeong Hoi
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Pressure Vessels and Piping
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.41-48
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    • 2018
  • In this study, the dynamic absorber and the damper are applied to improve the seismic performance of the piping system, and their quantitative effects on the piping system performance are examined. For this purpose, the response performances of piping system applied with the dynamic absorber/damper are compared with those of the original piping system. Firstly, the frequency response analyses of the piping system with the presence or the absence of dynamic absorber/damper are performed and these results are compared. It has been shown that the maximum acceleration response per the frequency of the piping system is considerably reduced by installing the dynamic absorber and the damper. Secondly, the seismic responses of the piping systems with and without dynamic absorber/damper are compared. As a result of the numerical analyses, it is confirmed that key responses are reduced by 17%-63% due to the installation of the dynamic absorber and damper. Finally, as a result of the seismic performance evaluation, it is confirmed that the HCLPF (High Confidence of Low Probability of Failure) seismic performances are increased by 1.22 to 2.70 times with respect to the failure modes with an aid of the dynamic absorber and damper.

Sensitivity analysis of failure correlation between structures, systems, and components on system risk

  • Seunghyun Eem ;Shinyoung Kwag ;In-Kil Choi ;Daegi Hahm
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.981-988
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    • 2023
  • A seismic event caused an accident at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant, which further resulted in simultaneous accidents at several units. Consequently, this incident has aroused great interest in the safety of nuclear power plants worldwide. A reasonable safety evaluation of such an external event should appropriately consider the correlation between SSCs (structures, systems, and components) and the probability of failure. However, a probabilistic safety assessment in current nuclear industries is performed conservatively, assuming that the failure correlation between SSCs is independent or completely dependent. This is an extreme assumption; a reasonable risk can be calculated, or risk-based decision-making can be conducted only when the appropriate failure correlation between SSCs is considered. Thus, this study analyzed the effect of the failure correlation of SSCs on the safety of the system to realize rational safety assessment and decision-making. Consequently, the impact on the system differs according to the size of the failure probability of the SSCs and the AND and OR conditions.

Study on Seismic Fragility Analysis of Water Supply Facilities (상수도 시설물의 지진 취약도)

  • Lee, Changsoo;Shin, Deasub;Lee, Hodam
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.35-43
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    • 2015
  • In this study, The failure of water supply facilities is categorized into two phases: functional failure and complete collapse. The fragility curve of water supply facilities under PGA has been developed for two loading cases: actual overseas earthquake and Korean artificial earthquake. The seismic fragility of water supply facilities has been analyzed and compared about failure phases and PGA. From the analysis results, the probability of failure of the wrapped steel pipe and ductile case iron pipe under Korean artificial earthquake has been shown as lower than that under actual overseas earthquake in the range from 0.1 to 0.4. The suggested seismic fragility curve by using Korean artificial earthquake can be exploited in a reasonable seismic design reflecting Korean local ground condition.

Seismic probabilistic risk assessment of weir structures considering the earthquake hazard in the Korean Peninsula

  • Alam, Jahangir;Kim, Dookie;Choi, Byounghan
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.421-427
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    • 2017
  • Seismic safety evaluation of weir structure is significant considering the catastrophic economical consequence of operational disruption. In recent years, the seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) has been issued as a key area of research for the hydraulic system to mitigate and manage the risk. The aim of this paper is to assess the seismic probabilistic risk of weir structures employing the seismic hazard and the structural fragility in Korea. At the first stage, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) approach is performed to extract the hazard curve at the weir site using the seismic and geological data. Thereafter, the seismic fragility that defines the probability of structural collapse is evaluated by using the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) method in accordance with the four different design limit states as failure identification criteria. Consequently, by combining the seismic hazard and fragility results, the seismic risk curves are developed that contain helpful information for risk management of hydraulic structures. The tensile stress of the mass concrete is found to be more vulnerable than other design criteria. The hazard deaggregation illustrates that moderate size and far source earthquakes are the most likely scenario for the site. In addition, the annual loss curves for two different hazard source models corresponding to design limit states are extracted.

Stochastic optimum design criterion of added viscous dampers for buildings seismic protection

  • Marano, Giuseppe Carlo;Trentadue, Francesco;Greco, Rita
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.21-37
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    • 2007
  • In this study a stochastic approach for linear viscous dampers design adopted for seismic protection of buildings is developed. Devices optimal placement into the main structure and their mechanical parameters are attained by means of a reliability-based optimum design criterion, in which an objective function (O.F.) is minimized, subject to a stochastic constraint. The seismic input is modelled by a non stationary modulated Kanai Tajimi filtered stochastic process. Building is represented by means of a plane shear type frame model. The selected criterion for the optimization searches the minimum of the O.F., here assumed to be the cost of the seismic protection, i.e., assumed proportional to the sum of added dampings of each device. The stochastic constraint limits a suitable approximated measure of the structure failure probability, here associated to the maximum interstorey drift crossing over a given threshold limit, related, according with modern Technical Codes, to the required damage control.

Reliability and Risk Assessment of Reclaimed Soil (매립지반의 액상화 신뢰성 및 위험도 평가)

  • Yi Jin-Hak;Kwon O-Soon;Park Woo-Sun
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 2006.04a
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    • pp.473-480
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    • 2006
  • Liquefaction of soil foundation is one of the major seismic damage types of infrastructures. In this paper, deterministic and probabilistic approaches for the evaluation of liquefaction potential are briefly summarized and the risk assessment method is newly proposed using seismic fragility and seismic hazard curves. Currently the deterministic approach is widely used to evaluate the liquefaction potential in Korea. However, the there are a certain degree of uncertainties in the soil properties such as elastic modulus and resistant capacity, therefore the probabilistic approach is more promising. Two types of probabilistic approach are introduced including (1) failure probability for a given design earthquake and (2) the seismic risk of liquefaction of soil for a given service life. The results from different methods show a similar trend, and the liquefaction potential can be more quantitatively evaluated using risk analysis method.

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ReliabIlity analysis of containment building subjected to earthquake load using response surface method

  • Lee, Seong Lo
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2006
  • The seismic safety of reinforced concrete containment building can be evaluated by probabilistic analysis considering randomness of earthquake, which is more rational than deterministic analysis. In the safety assessment of earthquake-resistant structures by the deterministic theory, it is not easy to consider the effects of random variables but the reliability theory and random vibration theory are useful to assess the seismic safety with considering random effects. The reliability assessment of reinforced concrete containment building subjected to earthquake load includes the structural analysis considering random variables such as load, resistance and analysis method, the definition of limit states and the reliability analysis. The reliability analysis procedure requires much time and labor and also needs to get the high confidence in results. In this study, random vibration analysis of containment building is performed with random variables as earthquake load, concrete compressive strength, modal damping ratio. The seismic responses of critical elements of structure are approximated at the most probable failure point by the response surface method. The response surface method helps to figure out the quantitative characteristics of structural response variability. And the limit state is defined as the failure surface of concrete under multi-axial stress, finally the limit state probability of failure can be obtained simply by first-order second moment method. The reliability analysis for the multiaxial strength limit state and the uniaxial strength limit state is performed and the results are compared with each other. This study concludes that the multiaxial failure criterion is a likely limit state to predict concrete failure strength under combined state of stresses and the reliability analysis results are compatible with the fact that the maximum compressive strength of concrete under biaxial compression state increases.

Failure Probability of Nonlinear SDOF System Subject to Scaled and Spectrum Matched Input Ground Motion Models (배율조정 및 스펙트럼 맞춤 입력지반운동 모델에 대한 비선형 단자유도 시스템의 파손확률)

  • Kim, Dong-Seok;Koh, Hyun-Moo;Choi, Chang-Yeol;Park, Won-Suk
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.11-20
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    • 2008
  • In probabilistic seismic analysis of nonlinear structural system, dynamic analysis is performed to obtain the distribution of the response estimate using input ground motion time histories which correspond to a given seismic hazard level. This study investigates the differences in the distribution of the responses and the failure probability according to input ground motion models. Two types of input ground motion models are considered: real earthquake records scaled to specified intensity level and artificial input ground motion fitted to design response spectrum. Simulation results fir a nonlinear SDOF system demonstrate that the spectrum matched input ground motion produces larger failure probability than those of scaled input ground motion due to biased responses. Such tendency is more remarkable in the site of soft soil conditions. Analysis results show that such difference of failure probability is due to the conservative estimation of design response spectrum in the range of long period of ground motion.

Reliability Analysis of Caisson Type Quay wall Considering Phase Difference of Seismic Earth-Pressure (지진토압의 위상차를 고려한 케이슨 안벽의 신뢰성해석)

  • 김동현;윤길림;박우선
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.242-248
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    • 2003
  • For reliability analysis of caisson type quay walls, an approach to include the phase difference between the caisson motion and the dynamic earth pressure is proposed. Present approach. which uses the phase difference parameter, may over-estimate earth pressure. But the proposed approach considers the phase angle instead of the phase difference in estimating resultant external load. Therefore. it is more reasonable than the previous one. Accordingly, calculation of probability of failure becomes more accurate. Numerical example is used to compare the two approaches.