• Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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• 제20권12호
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• pp.2124-2135
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• 2006

In this paper, the reliability estimation of pipelines is performed by employing the probabilistic method, which accounts for the uncertainties in the load and resistance parameters of the limit state function. The FORM (first order reliability method) and the SORM (second order reliability method) are carried out to estimate the failure probability of pipeline utilizing the FAD (failure assessment diagram). And the reliability of pipeline is assessed by using this failure probability and analyzed in accordance with a target safety level. Furthermore, the MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation) is used to verify the results of the FORM and the SORM. It is noted that the failure probability increases with the increase of dent depth, gouge depth, operating pressure, outside radius, and the decrease of wall thickness. It is found that the FORM utilizing the FAD is a useful and is an efficient method to estimate the failure probability in the reliability assessment of a pipeline. Furthermore, the pipeline safety assessment technique with the deterministic procedure utilizing the FAD only is turned out more conservative than those obtained by using the probability theory together with the FAD. The probabilistic method such as the FORM, the SORM and the MCS can be used by most plant designers regarding the operating condition and design parameters.

• 대한조선학회논문집
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• 제33권2호
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• pp.96-110
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• 1996

노후선박은 부식, 피로균열 등의 구조손상을 입고 있으며, 구조손상이 심각하면 중대한 해난사고를 초래할 위험성이 높다. 선각붕괴에 의한 선박의 침몰사고를 미연에 방지하기 위하여는 구조손상에 기인된 각종 불확실성을 고려한 노후선박의 최종강도 신뢰성을 평가할 필요가 있다. 본 논문에서는 부식에 의한 선체구조부재의 판두께 감소효과를 고려하여 선체구조의 최종강도를 기준으로한 신뢰성 평가기법을 제시하였다. 이를 위해 선체구조의 부식 속도모델을 선급에서 제시하는 데이타를 바탕으로 설정하고, 부식효과를 고려한 신뢰성 한계상태방정식을 도출하였으며, 최종강도 신뢰성은 SORM (second-order reliability method)을 적용하여 계산하였다. 본 기법을 이중선체 유조선에 적용하여 선령의 증가에 따른 단면계수 및 최종강도 신뢰성의 감소특성을 고찰하였다.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제28권10호
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• pp.1458-1466
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• 2004

Deterministic optimum designs that are obtained without consideration of uncertainties could lead to unrealiable designs. Such deterministic engineering optimization tends to promote the structural system with less reliability redundancy than obtained with conventional design procedures using the factor of safety. Consequently, deterministic optimized structures will usually have higher failure probabilities than unoptimized structures. This paper proposes the reliability based design optimization technique fur apressure tank considering temperature effect. This paper presents an efficient and stable reliability based design optimization method by using the advanced first order second moment method, which evaluates a probabilistic constraint for more accuracy. In addition, the response surface method is utilized to approximate the performance functions describing the system characteristics in the reliability based design optimization procedure.

• 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국콘크리트학회 2004년도 추계 학술발표회 제16권2호
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• pp.433-436
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• 2004

The safety of buildings is generally estimated by analyzing a plane frame ignoring a minor bending moment. In this paper, uncertainties of reinforced concrete shear wall subjected to a biaxial bending are considered. First, major parameters are selected from all parameters of general shear wall design to perform a reliability analysis in their practical ranges, means and standard derivations of selected design parameters for the reliability analysis are calculated by a data mining as a simulation method. The bi-section method is used to find inclined neutral axis and its limit state using MATLAB subjected to the concept on strength design method. The reliability index $\beta$ as a safety index is calculated based on AFOSM(Advanced First-Order Second Moment) method. Also, if target reliability index $\beta_T$ is decided by an engineer an amount of reinforcement can be calculated by subtracting the reliability index $\beta$ from the target reliability index $\beta_T$.

• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지반공학회 2006년도 춘계 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.988-997
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• 2006

In this paper, a reliability-groundwater flow program is developed by coupling the 3-D finite element numerical groundwater flow program with first and second order reliability program. The numerical groundwater program developed called DGU-FLOW is verified by solving the examples of groundwater flow through the underground excavation and comparing the results with those of commercial MODFLOW 3D programs. Reliability routine of the program is also verified by comparing the probability of failure of the flow model from FORM/SORM with that of Monte-Carlo Simulation. The difference of out-flux and total head calculated near the bottom of the excavation using the deterministic 3D groundwater flow and the commercial programs was negligible. The reliability analysis of the groundwater flow showed that the probability of failure from the first and second order reliability method are quite close that of Monte-Carlo Simulation. Therefore, the developed program is considered effective for analyzing the groundwater flow with uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity of the soils.

• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한기계학회 2003년도 춘계학술대회
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• pp.1130-1135
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• 2003

The need to increase the reliability of a structural system has been significantly brought in the procedure of real designs to consider, for instance, the material properties or geometric dimensions that reveal a random or incompletely known nature. Reliability based design optimization of a real system now becomes an emerging technique to achieve reliability, robustness and safety of these problems. Finite element analysis program and the reliability analysis program are necessary to evaluate the responses and the probabilities of failure of the system, respectively. Moreover, integration of these programs is required during the procedure of reliability based design optimization. It is well known that reliability based design optimization can often have so many local minima that it cannot converge to the specified probability of failure. To overcome this problem, barrier function method in reliability based design optimization is suggested. To illustrate the proposed formulation, reliability based design optimization of a bracket is performed. AMV and FORM are employed for reliability analysis and their optimization results are compared based on the accuracy and efficiency.

• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산구조공학회 1989년도 가을 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.34-39
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• 1989

Recent trends in design standards development have encouraged the use of probabilistic limit sate design concepts. Reliability analysis adopted in those advanced countries have the potentials that they afford for symplifying the design Process arid placing it on a consistent reliability based for various construction materials. This study is proposed in the reliability analysis of plane frame structures using second-order moment method(Level-II they). Lind-Hasofer's minimum distance method is use in the derivation of an mathematical algorithm as well as an determination of Correlation cofficients, reliability index and total reliability index depending on the multiple failure modes. In addition. This study is employed as a practical tool for the approximate reliability analysis. Results of the numerincal analysis showed that the difference between the reliability index of the failure probability of the multiple failure modes and the total reliability index of the failure probability with the simultaneous failure modes deviated nearly 3∼10% depending on tile performance functions.

• 한국구조물진단유지관리공학회 논문집
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.131-140
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• 2002

In this paper, a limit state model based on the analysis of structural behavior of segmental prestressed concrete box girder bridges and reliability-based safety assessment method are proposed for the bridges erected by free cantilever method. Strength limit state models for prestressed concrete box girder and rigid-frame type columns are developed for a structural safety assessment during construction. Based on the proposed limit state models, the reliability of the bridge is evaluated by using the Advanced First Order Second Moment method. The proposed model and method are applied to the Seo-Hae Grand Bridge built by FCM in order to verify its effectiveness in the safety assessment during construction of the kind of bridges. The sensitivity analyses of the main parameters are also performed in order to identify the important factors that need to be controlled for the safety of the bridges during construction.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제7권6호
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• pp.1061-1070
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• 2014

An iterative hybrid structural dynamic reliability prediction model has been developed under multiple-time interval loads with and without consideration of stochastic structural strength degradation. Firstly, multiple-time interval loads have been substituted by the equivalent interval load. The equivalent interval load and structural strength are assumed as random variables. For structural reliability problem with random and interval variables, the interval variables can be converted to uniformly distributed random variables. Secondly, structural reliability with interval and stochastic variables is computed iteratively using the first order second moment method according to the stress-strength interference theory. Finally, the proposed method is verified by three examples which show that the method is practicable, rational and gives accurate prediction.

• 한국지반공학회지:지반
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• 제4권2호
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• pp.15-24
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• 1988

확정론적 방법으로 안정조건을 만족하는 T형옹벽을 대상으로 지지력, 활동, 전도의 단일파괴류 형에 대해 설계변수를 통계적 독립이고 정규분포로 가정하여 AFOSM 방법으로 신뢰도 해석을하였다. 이를 바탕으로 각 파양모드 사이의 상관성을 고려한 구조물 전체적인 신뢰도는 신뢰지수로 2.05 이었다. 그러므로, 확정론적 설계법에 의해 안전상태로 판단된다 할지라도 신뢰도개념으로는 일반적인 목표신뢰지수(Target reliability index) 3보다 훨씬 낮기 때문에 안정상태로 판단하기는 곤란하다.