• 대기
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.555-563
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• 2014

The impacts of dynamic and thermodynamic schemes used in the Community Ice CodE (CICE), the Los Alamos sea ice model, on sea ice concentration, extent and thickness over the Arctic and Antarctic regions are evaluated. Using the six dynamic and thermodynamic schemes such as sea ice strength scheme, conductivity scheme, albedo type, advection scheme, shortwave radiation method, and sea ice thickness distribution approximation, the sensitivity experiments are conducted. It is compared with a control experiment, which is based on the fixed atmospheric and oceanic forcing. For sea ice concentration and extent, it is found that there are remarkable differences between each sensitivity experiment and the control run over the Arctic and Antarctic especially in summer. In contrast, there are little seasonal variations between the experiments for sea ice thickness. In summer, the change of the albedo type has the biggest influence on the Arctic sea ice concentration, and the Antarctic sea ice concentration has a greater sensitivity to not only the albedo type but also advection scheme. The Arctic sea ice thickness is significantly affected by the albedo type and shortwave radiation method, while the Antarctic sea ice thickness is more sensitive to sea ice strength scheme and advection scheme.

• Journal of Ship and Ocean Technology
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.20-28
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• 2004

A dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model with 50-km spatial and 24-hour temporal resolution is used to investigate the spatial and long-term temporal variability of the sea ice cover the Arctic Basin. The model satisfactorily reproduces the averaged main characteristics of the sea ice and the sea ice extent in the Arctic Basin and its decrease in early 1990th. At times model allows to suppose partial recovery of sea ice cover in the last years of twenty century. The employment of explicit form for description of ridging gives opportunity to assume that the observed thinning is the result of reduction the intensity of ridging processes and to estimate long-term variability of probability the ridge free navigation in the different parts of the Arctic Ocean including the North Sea Route area.

• 한국해양학회지:바다
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• 제6권4호
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• pp.225-233
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• 2001

본 연구에서는 기후 시스템 내에서의 해빙의 역할을 살펴보고자 열역학적 방식에 의한 해빙 모형을 개발하고 이를 해양대순환 모형인 MOM에 접합한 해양/해빙 접합 모형을 구축하여 수치적 실험을 하였다. 연구에서는 먼저 접합한 모형을 이용하여 해빙의 계절 평균적인 분포를 모사하였다. 또한 해양대순환 모형이 해빙 모형과 접합한 경우와 접합하지 않은 경우를 비교함으로써 대규모 해양 분포에 나타나는 해빙의 역할을 살펴보았다. 또한 모형의 결과를 다른 모형의 결과 및 관측자료와 비교 분석함으로써 해양/해빙 모형 접합 모형의 결과를 검증하였다. 접합 모형은 양반구 고위도에서의 해빙이 계절적 분포를 전체적으로 적절히 모사하였다. 해양대순환 모형이 해빙 모형과 접합한 경우와 그렇지 않은 경우에 대한 비교 연구에서 해빙은 양반구 고위도에서의 해수온과 염분을 유지시켜주는 중요한 역할을 할뿐만 아니라 South Ocean 순환세포와 남반구 순환세포(Southern Hemisphere circulation cell) 및 북대서양 심층수와 관련한 자오 심해 순환과 남극환류 같은 동서류의 순환도 적절히 모사하였다.

• 대한조선학회논문집
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• 제52권2호
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• pp.104-109
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• 2015

The Korea Research Institute of Ships & Ocean Engineering (KRISO) has an ice tank to make a test environment similar to the real ice in the polar sea in order to carry out model tests. One of the most important task of the ice tank is to generate the model ice to have similar material properties as sea ice. The primary properties of sea ice which influence the ice performance of ice breakers and ice-strengthened vessels traveling in the polar sea are ice thickness, flexural strength, density, modulus of elasticity and crystal structure etc. Among them, since the density of model ice influences the buoyance resistance of ice for the ship model, the accurate measurement of ice density should be used to obtain the accurate analysis results from the model test. In this paper, some existing methods to measure the density of model ice are reviewed and a new one is proposed to measure it accurately and easily as possible. In this study, the measuring system including an UTM and several measuring devices was established to obtain the model ice density. Polyethylene and ice specimens are used for a series of repeatable measurement tests. From the results, it was recognized that both of the displacement method and the weight/weight methods gave the stable and favorable tendency.

• 대한조선학회논문집
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• 제48권5호
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• pp.390-395
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• 2011

The main purpose of ice model basin is to assess and evaluate the performance of the Arctic ships and offshore structures because the full-scale tests in ice covered sea are usually very expensive and difficult. There are various ice conditions, such as level ice, brash ice, pack ice and ice ridge, in the real sea. To estimate their capacities in ice tank accurately, an appropriate model ice sheet and prepared ice conditions copied from actual sea ice conditions are needed. Pack ice is a floating ice that has been driven together into a single mass and a mixture of ice fragments of varying size and age that are squeezed together and cover the sea surface with little or no open water. So Ice-class vessels and Icebreaker are usually operated in pack ice conditions for the long time of her voyage. The most ice model tests include the pack ice test with the change of pack ice concentration. In this paper, the effect of pack ice size and channel breadth in pack ice model test is conducted and analyzed. Also we presented some techniques for the calculation of pack ice concentration in the model test. Finally, we developed a new model test methodology of pack ice condition in square type ice tank.

• 한국지구과학회지
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• 제36권1호
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• pp.82-89
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• 2015

전지구 해양 해빙 예측시스템인 NEMO-CICE/NEMOVAR의 해빙 초기조건의 특성을 2013년 6월부터 2014년 5월까지 북극영역에 대하여 분석하였다. 이를 위하여 관측 자료와 재분석 자료를 모델의 초기조건과 비교하였다. 모델 초기조건은 관측에서 나타나는 해빙 면적과 해빙 두께의 월 변동을 잘 보이는 반면, 분석 기간 동안 관측과 재분석 자료보다 북극의 해빙 면적을 좁게, 해빙 두께를 얇게 나타내었다. 모델 초기조건의 북극 해빙 면적이 좁은 것은 해빙의 경계 지역에서 해빙 농도 초기조건이 약 20% 정도 재분석자료보다 낮기 때문이다. 또한 북극 평균 해빙 두께가 얇게 나타나는 이유는 연중 두꺼운 해빙이 유지되는 그린란드 및 북극 군도와 인접한 북극해 영역에서 모델의 초기조건이 약 60 cm 정도 얇기 때문이다.

• 대한원격탐사학회지
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• 제38권6_1호
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• pp.1047-1056
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• 2022

지구 온난화의 중요한 지시자인 북극의 바다 얼음인 해빙은 기후 시스템, 선박의 항로 안내, 어업 활동 등에서의 중요성으로 인해 다양한 학문 분야에서 관심을 받고 있다. 최근 자동화와 효율적인 미래 예측에 대한 요구가 커지면서 인공지능을 이용한 새로운 해빙 예측 모델들이 전통적인 수치 및 통계 예측 모델을 대체하기 위해 개발되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 북극 해빙의 전역적, 지역적 특징을 학습할 수 있는 two-stream convolutional long- and short-term memory (TS-ConvLSTM) 인공지능 모델의 북극 해빙 면적이 최저를 보이는 9월에 대해 2001년부터 2021년까지 장기적인 성능 검증을 통해 향후 운용 가능한 시스템으로써의 가능성을 살펴보고자 한다. 장기 자료를 통한 검증 결과 TS-ConvLSTM 모델이 훈련자료의 양이 증가하면서 향상된 예측 성능을 보여주고 있지만, 최근 지구 온난화로 인한 단년생 해빙의 감소로 인해 해빙 농도 5-50% 구간에서는 예측력이 저하되고 있음을 보여주었다. 반면 TS-ConvLSTM에 의해 예측된 해빙 면적과 달리 Sea Ice Prediction Network에 제출된 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO)들의 해빙 면적 중간값의 경우 훈련자료가 늘어나더라도 눈에 띄는 향상을 보이지 않았다. 본 연구를 통해 TS-ConvLSTM 모델의 향후 북극 해빙 예측 시스템의 운용 가능 잠재성을 확인하였으나, 향후 연구에서는 예측이 어려운 자연 환경에서 더욱 안정성 있는 예측 시스템 개발을 위해 더 많은 시공간 변화 패턴을 학습할 수 있는 방안을 고려해야 할 것이다.

• 대기
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.15-24
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• 2018

Sea ice plays an important role in modulating surface conditions at high and mid-latitudes. It reacts rapidly to climate change, therefore, it is a good indicator for capturing these changes from the Arctic climate. While many models have been used to study the predictability of climate variables, their performance in predicting sea ice was not well assessed. This study examines the predictability of the Arctic sea ice extent from ensemble prediction systems. The analysis is focused on verification of predictability in each model compared to the observation and prediction in particular, on lead time in Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) scales. The S2S database now provides quasi-real time ensemble forecasts and hindcasts up to about 60 days from 11 centers: BoM, CMA, ECCC, ECMWF, HMCR, ISAC-CNR, JMA, KMA, Meteo France, NCEP and UKMO. For multi model comparison, only models coupled with sea ice model were selected. Predictability is quantified by the climatology, bias, trends and correlation skill score computed from hindcasts over the period 1999 to 2009. Most of models are able to reproduce characteristics of the sea ice, but they have bias with seasonal dependence and lead time. All models show decreasing sea ice extent trends with a maximum magnitude in warm season. The Arctic sea ice extent can be skillfully predicted up 6 weeks ahead in S2S scales. But trend-independent skill is small and statistically significant for lead time over 6 weeks only in summer.

• 대한원격탐사학회지
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• 제4권1호
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• pp.1-16
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• 1988

Multiyear ice is quite thick in general, and it needs to be distinguished from thinner types of ice because it represents a severe navigational hazard. Here, models are described for the radar backscatter from multiyear sea ice, based on simple scattering layers. Under cold conditions, the radiative transfer volume-scatter model can describe the backscattering from multiyear ice for frequencies higher than about X-band, while the surface scattering contribution has to be included for lower frequencies. A simple semi-empirical model is shown to be a good approximation to the radiative transfer model in describing the volume scattering from multiyear ice.

• 대한조선학회논문집
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• 제48권5호
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• pp.457-464
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• 2011

This paper deal with the validation of correction method of ice strength and thickness to the sea trial condition based on the ice model test results. It is very difficult to conduct the model test corresponding to the sea trial condition exactly. In addition, the available sea trial data is not sufficient for the validation of correction method. In the present study, the model test results of Terry-Fox ice breker have been used to compare the corrected results of sea trial test by varying its thickness and strength of model ice. The HSVA and ITTC methods have been applied to the present comparisions and the required power has been also validated by using the HSVA method. There are rather good agreement between the sea trial result and model test corrected by the HSVA and ITTC method. The more comparisons are expected to be carried out in near future.