• Title/Summary/Keyword: Scenario-based

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Prediction of Land-cover Changes and Analysis of Paddy Fields Changes Based on Climate Change Scenario (A1B) in Agricultural Reservoir Watersheds (기후변화 시나리오 (A1B)에 따른 농업용 저수지 유역의 미래 토지피복변화 예측 및 논 면적 변화 특성 분석)

  • Oh, Yun-Gyeong;Yoo, Seung-Hwan;Lee, Sang-Hyun;Park, Na-Young;Choi, Jin-Yong;Yun, Dong-Koun
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.77-86
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    • 2012
  • This study was aim to predict future land-cover changes and to analyze regional land-cover changes in irrigation areas and agricultural reservoir watersheds under climate change scenario. To simulate the future land-cover under climate change scenario - A1B of the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios), Dyna-CLUE (Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects) was applied for modeling of competition among land-use types in relation to socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors. For the study areas, 8 agricultural reservoirs were selected from 8 different provinces covering all around nation. The simulation results from 2010 to 2100 suggested future land-cover changes under the scenario conditions. For Madun reservoir in Gyeonggi-do, total decrease amount of paddy area was a similar amount of 'Base demand scenario' of Water Vision 2020 published by MLTMA (Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs), while the decrease amounts of paddy areas in other sites were less than the amount of 'High demand scenario' of Water Vision 2020. Under A1B scenario, all the land-cover results showed only slight changes in irrigation areas of agricultural reservoirs and most of agricultural reservoir watersheds will be increased continuously for forest areas. This approach could be useful for evaluating and simulating agricultural water demand in relation to land-use changes.

A Sutdy of VTS Simulator Development using port specified scenario technology (항만별 맞춤 시나리오 생성기술을 적용한 VTS시뮬레이터 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Nam, Gyeungtae;Lee, Sangil;Lee, Younggeun;Park, Gwangbok
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2013.10a
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    • pp.32-33
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    • 2013
  • In the past, the scenario of VTS simulator was made by instructor's manual operation using waypoint definition of target ship. but in this study, we use automatic scenario creation technology with AIS data and Port-MIS data. The created VTS simaulator scenario also can be modified, added, and saved by instructor's manual operation. VTS simulator display target ship on the Electronic Navigation Chart based on S-57 format. A instructor can easily open this scenario and start, pause, stop operation wirth VTS simulator. A new modification also can be applied immediately to current scenario and can be saved new scenario file. VTS simulator using this technology can create many scenarios for a specific purpose and can be easily used for various application fields.

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Flood risk estimation with scenario-based, coupled river-overland hydrodynamic modeling (시나리오 기반 하천-제내지 연계 통합수리해석에 의한 홍수위험도 산정)

  • Lee, Jae Young;Nam, Myeong Jun;Kwon, Hyun Han;Kim, Ki Young
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.9
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    • pp.773-787
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    • 2016
  • A coupled river-overland hydrodynamic model was applied to estimate flood risk by a scenario-based approach. The study area is Seongseo Industrial Complex in Daegu which is located near Nakdong river and Geumho river. Inundation depth and velocity at each time were calculated by applying a coupled 1D/2D hydrodynamic model to the target area of interest. The 2D inundation analysis for river and overland domain was performed with the scenario-based approach that there are levee overflow against 100/200 year high quantile (97.5%) design flood and levee break against 100/200 year normal quantile (50%) design flood. The level of flood risk was displayed for resident/industrial area using information about maximum depth and velocity of each node computed from the 2D inundation map. The research outcome would be very useful in establishing specified emergency action plans (EAP) in case of levee break and overflowing resulting from a flood.

A Prospect for Supply and Demand of Physical Therapists in Korea Through 2030 (물리치료사 인력의 수급전망과 정책방향)

  • Oh, Youngho
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Integrative Medicine
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.149-169
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    • 2018
  • Purpose : This study was to develop a strategy for modeling future workforce projections to serve as a basis for analyzing annual supply of and demand for physical therapists across the South Korea into 2030. Methods : In-and-out movement model was used to project the supply of physical therapists. The demand was projected according to the demand-based method which consists of four-stages such as estimation of the utilization rate of the base year, forecasting of health care utilization of the target years, forecasting of the requirements of clinical physical therapists and non-clinical physical therapists based on the projected physical therapists. Results : Based on the current productivity standards, there will be oversupply of 39,007 to 40,875 physical therapists under the demand scenario of average rate in 2030, undersupply of 44,663 to 49,885 under the demand scenario of logistic model, oversupply of 16,378 to 19,100 under the demand scenario of logarithm, and oversupply of 18,185 to 20,839 under the demand scenario of auto-regressive moving average (ARIMA) model in 2030. Conclusion : The result of this projection suggests that the direction and degree of supply of and demand for physical therapists varied depending on physical therapists productivity and utilization growth scenarios. However, the need for introduction of a professional physical therapist system and the need to provide long-term care rehabilitation services are actively being discussed in entering the aging society. If community rehabilitation programs for rehabilitation of disabled people and the elderly are activated, the demand of physical therapists will increase, especially for elderly people. Therefore, healthcare policy should focus on establishing rehabilitation service infrastructure suitable for an aging society, providing high-quality physical therapy services, and effective utilization of physical therapists.

Risk Assessment of Triclosan, a Cosmetic Preservative

  • Lee, Jung Dae;Lee, Joo Young;Kwack, Seung Jun;Shin, Chan Young;Jang, Hyun-Jun;Kim, Hyang Yeon;Kim, Min Kook;Seo, Dong-Wan;Lee, Byung-Mu;Kim, Kyu-Bong
    • Toxicological Research
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.137-154
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    • 2019
  • Triclosan (TCS) is an antimicrobial compound used in consumer products. The purpose of current study was to examine toxicology and risk assessment of TCS based on available data. Acute toxicities of oral, transdermal and inhalation routes were low, and phototoxicity and neurotoxicity were not observed. Topical treatment of TCS to animal caused mild irritation. TCS did not induce reproductive and developmental toxicity in rodents. In addition, genotoxicity was not considered based on in vitro and in vivo tests of TCS. It is not classified as a carcinogen in international authorities such as International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). No-observed-adverse-effect level (NOAEL) was determined 12 mg/kg bw/day for TCS, based on haematoxicity and reduction of absolute and relative spleen weights in a 104-week oral toxicity study in rats. Percutaneous absorption rate was set as 14%, which was human skin absorption study reported by National Industrial Chemicals Notification and Assessment Scheme (NICNAS) (2009). The systemic exposure dosage (SED) of TCS has been derived by two scenarios depending on the cosmetics usage of Koreans. The first scenario is the combined use of representative cosmetics and oral care products. The second scenario is the combined use of rinse-off products of cleansing, deodorants, coloring products, and oral care products. SEDs have been calculated as 0.14337 mg/kg bw/day for the first scenario and 0.04733 mg/kg bw/day for the second scenario. As a result, margin of safety (MOS) for the first and second scenarios was estimated to 84 and 253.5, respectively. Based on these results, exposure of TCS contained in rinse-off products, deodorants, and coloring products would not pose a significant health risk when it is used up to 0.3%.

Data analysis for facility maintenance based on BIM - Case studies of facility maintenance based on BIM and practical process - (BIM 기반 시설물 유지관리를 위한 데이터 정의 - BIM기반 시설물관리 사례와 프로세스 분석 -)

  • Kim, Do Young
    • Journal of KIBIM
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2020
  • The introduction of BIM technology is expanding not only in the field of design and construction, but also in the maintenance and use stage. In particular, researchers are looking to build a smart facility management system that integrates advanced IT technology and BIM. This study proposes the parts to be used and added to the BIM information, focusing on information generated and exchanged in the application case that is an issue during the current facility maintenance work by introducing the smart facility management technology and its use cases. The effectiveness of this proposal is compared with the scenario in which BIM-based facility safety management is applied and the current business scenario. In conclusion, the requirements for smart facility management are analyzed, and linkable parts between facility management tasks and BIM data that should be reflected in the facility management system are presented. In the maintenance phase, through the use case scenario, the facility management phase is subdivided according to the characteristics and contents of the work. In addition, information about the facilities required for each task is specified. Furthermore, it is examined whether BIM data and IT information can be linked with existing facility management systems. It is a process and guideline that can be provided to practitioners who want to introduce BIM and smart technology to facility management. It can define the required data items and levels according to the required information step by step based on the maintenance case.

Development Plan of Accident Scenario Modeling Based on Seasonal Weather Conditions - Focus on Chlorine Leakage Accident - (계절별 기상조건에 따른 사고시나리오 모델링 발전방안 - 염소 누출사고를 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Hyun-Sub;Jeon, Byeong-Han
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.10
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    • pp.733-738
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    • 2017
  • In this study, we selected chlorine, a typical toxic material used in many workplaces, as the leakage material, and through the analysis of alternative scenarios based on the meteorological conditions in the summer frequently encountered in accidents, we suggest ways to improve the (method of analysis/accident scenario modeling). The analysis of 296 chemical accidents from January 2014 to December 2016 found that the highest rate of occurrence was in summer, accounting for 35.81% of the total. According to the risk assessment, the influence range and number of inhabitants in the influence area were 712.4 m and 20,090 under the annual mean weather conditions and 796.2 m and 27,143 people under the summer mean weather conditions, respectively. This result implies that, under certain conditions, the range of impacts in the current alternative scenario is incomplete. Therefore, risk assessment systems need to be improved in order to take into consideration the characteristics of each chemical substance.

Vehicle Location Data Generator based on a User (사용자 지정 시나리오에 기반한 차량 위치 데이터 생성기)

  • Jung Young-Jin;Cho Eun-Sun;Ryu Keun-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.11 no.2 s.40
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    • pp.101-110
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    • 2006
  • ADevelopment of various geographic observations, GPS, and Wireless Communication technologies make it easy to control many moving objects and to build an intelligent transport system and transport vehicle management system. However it is difficult to make a suitable system in the real world with a variety of tests to evaluate the performance fairly because real vehicle data are not enough as evaluating and testing the transport plan in the system. Therefore some moving object data generator would be used in most researches. However they can not generate vehicle trajectory according to a user scenario defined to be applied to transport plan, because the existing data generators consider only a gauss distribution, road network. In this paper we design and implement a vehicle data generator for creating vehicle trajectory data based on the user-defined scenario. The designed data generator could make the vehicle location depending on user's transport plan. Besides we store the scenario as patterns and reutilize the used scenario.

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Collapse resistance of steel frames in two-side-column-removal scenario: Analytical method and design approach

  • Zhang, JingZhou;Yam, Michael C.H.;Soltanieh, Ghazaleh;Feng, Ran
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.78 no.4
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    • pp.485-496
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    • 2021
  • So far analytical methods on collapse assessment of three-dimensional (3-D) steel frames have mainly focused on a single-column-removal scenario. However, the collapse of the Federal Building in the US due to car bomb explosion indicated that the loss of multiple columns may occur in the real structures, wherein the structures are more vulnerable to collapse. Meanwhile, the General Services Administration (GSA) in the US suggested that the removal of side columns of the structure has a great possibility to cause collapse. Therefore, this paper analytically deals with the robustness of 3-D steel frames in a two-side-column-removal (TSCR) scenario. Analytical method is first proposed to determine the collapse resistance of the frame during this column-removal procedure. The reliability of the analytical method is verified by the finite element results. Moreover, a design-based methodology is proposed to quickly assess the robustness of the frame due to a TSCR scenario. It is found the analytical method can reasonably predict the resistance-displacement relationship of the frame in the TSCR scenario, with an error generally less than 10%. The parametric numerical analyses suggest that the slab thickness mainly affects the plastic bearing capacity of the frame. The rebar diameter mainly affects the capacity of the frame at large displacement. However, the steel beam section height affects both the plastic and ultimate bearing capacity of the frame. A case study on a six-storey steel frame shows that the design-based methodology provides a conservative prediction on the robustness of the frame.

Development of Collision Prevention Usage Scenario based on Vehicle-to-Vehicle Communication of Autonomous Vehicles (자율주행 차량의 차량 대 차량 통신에 기반한 충돌방지 활용 시나리오 개발)

  • Seo, HyunDuk;Kwon, Doyoung;Shin, Jaemin;Choi, Eunhyuk;Lim, Huhnkuk
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.251-257
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    • 2022
  • Self-driving vehicles are a type of smart vehicle with the help of ICT technology, which means a vehicle that operates without the intervention of a driver.Vehicles with vehicle safety communication technology (V2X) applied use information detected from various sensors or other vehicles/infrastructures to enable the smart vehicle to accurately and quickly predict the driver's potential danger situation, contributing to more stable autonomous driving. In this paper, among V2X communication technologies, a vehicle-to-vehicle communication (V2V) simulation communication technology is used to present a scenario for preventing collisions in autonomous vehicles. A vehicle collision prevention system based on V2V simulated communication was implemented and the suggested collision prevention application scenario was demonstrated. The suggested collision prevention utilization scenario can be considered as one application case of V2V communication technologies that are currently being developed/applied.