• Title/Summary/Keyword: Scenario tree method

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Fuzzy Reliability Analysis Models for Maintenance of Bridge Structure Systems (교량구조시스템의 유지관리를 위한 퍼지 신뢰성해석 모델)

  • 김종길;손용우;이증빈;이채규;안영기
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.103-114
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    • 2003
  • This paper aims to propose a method that helps maintenance engineers to evaluate the damage states of bridge structure systems by using a Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis. It may be stated that Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis may be very useful for the systematic and rational fuzzy reliability assessment for real bridge structure systems problems because the approach is able to effectively deal with all the related bridge structural element damages in terms of the linguistic variables that incorporate systematically experts experiences and subjective judgement. This paper considers these uncertainties by providing a fuzzy reliability-based framework and shows that the identification of the optimum maintenance scenario is a straightforward process. This is achieved by using a computer program for LIFETIME. This program can consider the effects of various types of actions on the fuzzy reliability index profile of a deteriorating structures. Only the effect of maintenance interventions is considered in this study. However. any environmental or mechanical action affecting the fuzzy reliability index profile can be considered in LIFETIME. Numerical examples of deteriorating bridges are presented to illustrate the capability of the proposed approach. Further development and implementation of this approach are recommended for future research.

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Estimation of Accident Probability for Dynamic Risk Assessment (동적 위험 분석을 위한 사고확률 추정 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Byeong-Cheol Park;Chae-Og Lim;In-Hyuk Nam;Sung-Chul Shin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence
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    • v.26 no.2_2
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    • pp.315-325
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    • 2023
  • Recently, various dynamic risk analysis methods have been suggested for estimating the risk index by predicting the possibility of accidents and damage. It is necessary to maintain and support the safety system for responding to accidents by continuously updating the probability of accidents and the results of accidents, which are quantitative standards of ship risk. In this study, when a LNG leakage that may occur in the LN G Fuel Gas Supply System (FGSS) room during LN G bunkering operation, a reliability physical model was prepared by the change in monitoring data as physical parameters to estimate the accident probability. The scenario in which LNG leakage occur were configured with FT (Fault Tree), and the coefficient of the covariate model and Weibull distribution was estimated based on the monitoring data. The possibility of an LNG leakage, which is the top event of FT, was confirmed by changes in time and monitoring data. A method for estimating the LNG leakage based on the reliability physical analysis is proposed, which supports fast decision-making by identifying the potential LNG leakage at the accident.

Analyzing Chemical Reaction Routes of Explosion by a Mixed Acid - Focusing on Chemical Carriers - (혼산에 의한 폭발사고의 화학반응 경로 분석 - 화학물질 운반 선박을 중심으로 -)

  • Kang, Yu Mi;Yim, Jeong-Bin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.661-668
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the chemical reaction pathway for explosion accident of mixed cargo. The analysis used a structural scenario using event-tree analysis. Structural scenarios were constructed by estimating various chemical reaction paths in the content of the mixed cargo accident recorded in the written verdict. The analytical method was applied to three kinds of analysis: chemical analysis based on chemical theory, quantitative analysis using chemical reaction formula, and probabilistic analysis through questionnaire. As a result of analysis, the main pathway of the accident occurred in three ways: the path of explosion due to the reaction of concentrated sulfuric acid with water, the path of explosion due to the reaction of metal and mixed acid, and the path of explosion by synthesizing with special substances. This result is similar to the path recorded in the validation, and it leads to thar the proposed path analysis method is valid. The proposed method is expected to be applicable to chemical reaction path estimation of various chemical accidents.

Risk Analysis of Ammonia Leak in the Refrigeration Manufacturing Facilities (냉동제조 시설의 암모니아 누출사고 위험 분석)

  • Kang, Su-Jin;Lee, Ik-Mo;Moon, Jin-Young;Chon, Young-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.43-51
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    • 2017
  • Recently, ammonia leak occurred frequently in the domestic refrigeration manufacturing facilities. Ammonia caused great damage to the environment and human health in the event of an accident as combustible gases and toxic gases. After considering the types of ammonia accidents of domestic refrigeration manufacturing facilities and selected accident scenarios and to analyze the risk analysis through Impact range estimates and frequency analysis and there was a need to establish measures to minimize accident damage. In this study, depending on the method of analysis quantitative risk assessment we analyzed the risk of the receiver tank of ammonia system. Scenario analysis conditions were set according to the 'Technical guidelines for the selection of accident scenario' under the chemicals control act and 'Guidelines for chemical process quantitative risk analysis' of center for chemical process safety. The risk estimates were utilized for consequence analysis and frequency analysis by SAFETI program of DNV, event tree analysis methodology and part count methodology. The individual risk of ammonia system was derived as 7.71E-04 / yr, social risk were derived as 1.17E-03 / yr. The derived risk was confirmed to apply as low as reasonably practicable of the national fire protection association and through risk calculation, it can be used as a way to minimize accidents ammonia leakage accident damage.

Influences of Forest Management Activity on Growth and Diameter Distribution Models for Larix kaempferi Carriere Stands in South Korea (산림시업이 일본잎갈나무 임분의 생장과 직경분포모형에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Sun Joo;Lee, Young Jin
    • Journal of agriculture & life science
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    • v.52 no.6
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    • pp.37-47
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    • 2018
  • The objective of this study was to analyze the influences of forest management activity on the diameter distribution of Larix kaempferi Carriere stands in South Korea. We used 232 managed stands data, 47 unmanaged stands data of National Forest Inventory for this study. We employed the Weibull distribution function for estimating diameter based on percentiles and parameter recovery method. The results revealed that the average diameter breast height movements and growth of tree in the managed stands higher than the unmanaged stands according to the scenario: age, site index, and tree density change. The finding shows the percentage of the total amount of large class diameter was also high in the managed stands. The results of this study could be apply for the estimation of multi-products of timbers per diameter classes and stand structure development for Larix kaempferi Carriere stands in South Korea.

Research on rapid source term estimation in nuclear accident emergency decision for pressurized water reactor based on Bayesian network

  • Wu, Guohua;Tong, Jiejuan;Zhang, Liguo;Yuan, Diping;Xiao, Yiqing
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.8
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    • pp.2534-2546
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    • 2021
  • Nuclear emergency preparedness and response is an essential part to ensure the safety of nuclear power plant (NPP). Key support technologies of nuclear emergency decision-making usually consist of accident diagnosis, source term estimation, accident consequence assessment, and protective action recommendation. Source term estimation is almost the most difficult part among them. For example, bad communication, incomplete information, as well as complicated accident scenario make it hard to determine the reactor status and estimate the source term timely in the Fukushima accident. Subsequently, it leads to the hard decision on how to take appropriate emergency response actions. Hence, this paper aims to develop a method for rapid source term estimation to support nuclear emergency decision making in pressurized water reactor NPP. The method aims to make our knowledge on NPP provide better support nuclear emergency. Firstly, this paper studies how to build a Bayesian network model for the NPP based on professional knowledge and engineering knowledge. This paper presents a method transforming the PRA model (event trees and fault trees) into a corresponding Bayesian network model. To solve the problem that some physical phenomena which are modeled as pivotal events in level 2 PRA, cannot find sensors associated directly with their occurrence, a weighted assignment approach based on expert assessment is proposed in this paper. Secondly, the monitoring data of NPP are provided to the Bayesian network model, the real-time status of pivotal events and initiating events can be determined based on the junction tree algorithm. Thirdly, since PRA knowledge can link the accident sequences to the possible release categories, the proposed method is capable to find the most likely release category for the candidate accidents scenarios, namely the source term. The probabilities of possible accident sequences and the source term are calculated. Finally, the prototype software is checked against several sets of accident scenario data which are generated by the simulator of AP1000-NPP, including large loss of coolant accident, loss of main feedwater, main steam line break, and steam generator tube rupture. The results show that the proposed method for rapid source term estimation under nuclear emergency decision making is promising.

FIRE PROPAGATION EQUATION FOR THE EXPLICIT IDENTIFICATION OF FIRE SCENARIOS IN A FIRE PSA

  • Lim, Ho-Gon;Han, Sang-Hoon;Moon, Joo-Hyun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.271-278
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    • 2011
  • When performing fire PSA in a nuclear power plant, an event mapping method, using an internal event PSA model, is widely used to reduce the resources used by fire PSA model development. Feasible initiating events and component failure events due to fire are identified to transform the fault tree (FT) for an internal event PSA into one for a fire PSA using the event mapping method. A surrogate event or damage term method is used to condition the FT of the internal PSA. The surrogate event or the damage term plays the role of flagging whether the system/component in a fire compartment is damaged or not, depending on the fire being initiated from a specified compartment. These methods usually require explicit states of all compartments to be modeled in a fire area. Fire event scenarios, when using explicit identification, such as surrogate or damage terms, have two problems: (1) there is no consideration of multiple fire propagation beyond a single propagation to an adjacent compartment, and (2) there is no consideration of simultaneous fire propagations in which an initiating fire event is propagated to multiple paths simultaneously. The present paper suggests a fire propagation equation to identify all possible fire event scenarios for an explicitly treated fire event scenario in the fire PSA. Also, a method for separating fire events was developed to make all fire events a set of mutually exclusive events, which can facilitate arithmetic summation in fire risk quantification. A simple example is given to confirm the applicability of the present method for a $2{\times}3$ rectangular fire area. Also, a feasible asymptotic approach is discussed to reduce the computational burden for fire risk quantification.

A Tree-Based Routing Algorithm Considering An Optimization for Efficient Link-Cost Estimation in Military WSN Environments (무선 센서 네트워크에서 링크 비용 최적화를 고려한 감시·정찰 환경의 트리 기반 라우팅 알고리즘에 대한 연구)

  • Kong, Joon-Ik;Lee, Jae-Ho;Kang, Ji-Heon;Eom, Doo-Seop
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.37 no.8B
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    • pp.637-646
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    • 2012
  • Recently, Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) are used in many applications. When sensor nodes are deployed on special areas, where humans have any difficulties to get in, the nodes form network topology themselves. By using the sensor nodes, users are able to obtain environmental information. Due to the lack of the battery capability, sensor nodes should be efficiently managed with energy consumption in WSNs. In specific applications (e.g. in intrusion detections), intruders tend to occur unexpectedly. For the energy efficiency in the applications, an appropriate algorithm is strongly required. In this paper, we propose tree-based routing algorithm for the specific applications, which based on the intrusion detection. In addition, In order to decrease traffic density, the proposed algorithm provides enhanced method considering link cost and load balance, and it establishes efficient links amongst the sensor nodes. Simultaneously, by using the proposed scheme, parent and child nodes are (re-)defined. Furthermore, efficient routing table management facilitates to improve energy efficiency especially in the limited power source. In order to apply a realistic military environment, in this paper, we design three scenarios according to an intruder's moving direction; (1) the intruder is passing along a path where sensor nodes have been already deployed. (2) the intruders are crossing the path. (3) the intruders, who are moving as (1)'s scenario, are certainly deviating from the middle of the path. In conclusion, through the simulation results, we obtain the performance results in terms of latency and energy consumption, and analyze them. Finally, we validate our algorithm is highly able to adapt on such the application environments.

A Context Recognition System for Various Food Intake using Mobile and Wearable Sensor Data (모바일 및 웨어러블 센서 데이터를 이용한 다양한 식사상황 인식 시스템)

  • Kim, Kee-Hoon;Cho, Sung-Bae
    • Journal of KIISE
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    • v.43 no.5
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    • pp.531-540
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    • 2016
  • Development of various sensors attached to mobile and wearable devices has led to increasing recognition of current context-based service to the user. In this study, we proposed a probabilistic model for recognizing user's food intake context, which can occur in a great variety of contexts. The model uses low-level sensor data from mobile and wrist-wearable devices that can be widely available in daily life. To cope with innate complexity and fuzziness in high-level activities like food intake, a context model represents the relevant contexts systematically based on 4 components of activity theory and 5 W's, and tree-structured Bayesian network recognizes the probabilistic state. To verify the proposed method, we collected 383 minutes of data from 4 people in a week and found that the proposed method outperforms the conventional machine learning methods in accuracy (93.21%). Also, we conducted a scenario-based test and investigated the effect contribution of individual components for recognition.

Bi-directional Maximal Matching Algorithm to Segment Khmer Words in Sentence

  • Mao, Makara;Peng, Sony;Yang, Yixuan;Park, Doo-Soon
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.549-561
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    • 2022
  • In the Khmer writing system, the Khmer script is the official letter of Cambodia, written from left to right without a space separator; it is complicated and requires more analysis studies. Without clear standard guidelines, a space separator in the Khmer language is used inconsistently and informally to separate words in sentences. Therefore, a segmented method should be discussed with the combination of the future Khmer natural language processing (NLP) to define the appropriate rule for Khmer sentences. The critical process in NLP with the capability of extensive data language analysis necessitates applying in this scenario. One of the essential components in Khmer language processing is how to split the word into a series of sentences and count the words used in the sentences. Currently, Microsoft Word cannot count Khmer words correctly. So, this study presents a systematic library to segment Khmer phrases using the bi-directional maximal matching (BiMM) method to address these problematic constraints. In the BiMM algorithm, the paper focuses on the Bidirectional implementation of forward maximal matching (FMM) and backward maximal matching (BMM) to improve word segmentation accuracy. A digital or prefix tree of data structure algorithm, also known as a trie, enhances the segmentation accuracy procedure by finding the children of each word parent node. The accuracy of BiMM is higher than using FMM or BMM independently; moreover, the proposed approach improves dictionary structures and reduces the number of errors. The result of this study can reduce the error by 8.57% compared to FMM and BFF algorithms with 94,807 Khmer words.