• 제목/요약/키워드: Scenario planning

검색결과 345건 처리시간 0.032초

상정사고를 고려한 배전용 변전소 신,증설 계획 수립 (Planning for Construction and Expanding of Distribution Substation Considering Contingency)

  • 최상봉;김대경;정성환
    • 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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    • 제50권7호
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    • pp.303-308
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    • 2001
  • This paper presents algorithm to plan construction and expanding of substation considering contingency accidents by proposing utilization factor according to configuration of substation bank system. In this paper, firstly, proper sphere of supply area by each district which could be standardized with respect to its supply capacity is established under assumption of long term load forecasting. Secondly, goal of utilization ratio based on configuration of substation bank was set to keep reliability by remaining sound bank when it happen to one bank accidents. Finally, it is set up for optimal construction and expanding of substation considering economy and reliability simultaneously about substation to exceed these ratio. To verify proposed algorithm, at first, after adopting a part of Kangnam area in Seoul as area for testing, it is divided into several regions for this area according to power branches of power utility. Secondly, by deriving correlation factor between load demand and economic indicators in these region respectively, the regional load forecasting was performed with economic growth and city plan scenario. Finally, based on the predicted load demand by region and land use data which is identified from air-photographic, the load demand by district was predicted. Also, planning for substation considering contingency is formulated to expand taking into account computing utilization factor which is based on configuration of substation bank respectively.

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GIS와 RS를 이용한 도시확산 포텐셜 평가기법의 개발 (Development of a potential evaluation method for urban expansion using GIS and RS technologies)

  • 김대식;정하우
    • 농촌계획
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    • 제10권3호
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    • pp.41-51
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    • 2004
  • This study aims to develop a potential evaluation method for urban spatial expansion using remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS). A multi-criteria evaluation method with several criteria and their weighting values was introduced to evaluate the score and quantification of the potential surface around the existing cities. The six criteria with one geographic factor, slope, and five accessibility factors, time distance from center of the city, national road, interchange of expressway, a big city, and station, were defined for the potential. RS techniques were applied for classification of the actual urban expansion maps between two periods, and GIS functions were used for score of accessibility criteria with a distance decay function from geographic, road and several point maps, which was developed in this study. The new methodology was applied to a test area, Suwon, between 1986 and 1996. In order to optimize the six weighting values, this study made new findings to search the optimal combination of the weighting values from new methodology, weighted scenario method for intensity order (WSM), combined with intensity order and AHP method, including a trial and error method for sensitivity analysis to make the intensity order. The optimal combination of the weighting values by the new method generated the optimal potential surface, considering spatial trend of urban expansion in the test area.

불확실한 상황하에서의 다복적 R & D 투자계획수립에 관한 연구-최적화 기법과 계층화 분석과정의 통합접 접근방안을 중심으로- (Multiobjective R&D Investment Planning under Uncertainty)

  • 이영찬;민재형
    • 한국경영과학회지
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    • 제20권2호
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    • pp.39-60
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    • 1995
  • In this paper, an integration of stochastic dynamic programming (SDP), integer goal programming (IGP) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is proposed to handle multiobjective-multicriteria sequential decision making problems under uncertainty inherent in R & D investment planning. SDP has its capability to handle problems which are sequential and stochastic. In the SDP model, the probabilities of the funding levels in any time period are generated using a subjective model which employs functional relationships among interrelated parameters, scenarios of future budget availability and subjective inputs elicited from a group of decision makers. The SDP model primarily yields an optimal investment planning policy considering the possibility that actual funding received may be less than anticipated one and thus the projects being selected under the anticipated budget would be interrupted. IGP is used to handle the multiobjective issues such as tradoff between economic benefit and technology accumulation level. Other managerial concerns related to the determination of the optimal project portifolio within each stage of the SDP model. including project selection, project scheduling and annual budget allocation are also determined by the IGP. AHP is proposed for generating scenario-based transformation probabilities under budgetary uncertainty and for quantifying the environmental risk to be considered.

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SAR위성의 영상획득 시나리오 모델링 및 임무설계 알고리즘 성능검증 (Modelling of Image Acquisition Scenario and Verification of Mission Planning Algorithm for SAR Satellite)

  • 신호현;김종필
    • 한국항공우주학회지
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    • 제47권8호
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    • pp.590-598
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    • 2019
  • 현대 사회에서 인공위성은 통신, 영상 등의 분야에서 널리 이용되고 있다. 이 중에서도 인공위성을 통해 획득한 영상은 넓은 지역에 대한 다양한 정보를 담고 있어 농업, 자원개발 및 활용, 군사적 목적 등으로 활용되고 있다. 인공위성의 특성상 영상을 획득할 수 있는 시간이 매우 제한적이므로 주어진 시간 내에 최대한 효율적인 영상획득을 수행하는 것이 중요하다. 이를 위해서 본 연구에서는 인공위성이 영상을 획득하는 데 소요되는 시간 및 자세 기동에 대한 모델링을 수행하고 이를 바탕으로 휴리스틱 평가함수를 이용한 임무설계 알고리즘을 제안하고 수치 시뮬레이션을 통하여 해당 알고리즘의 성능을 검증하였다.

Multi-objective optimization of submerged floating tunnel route considering structural safety and total travel time

  • Eun Hak Lee;Gyu-Jin Kim
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제88권4호
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    • pp.323-334
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    • 2023
  • The submerged floating tunnel (SFT) infrastructure has been regarded as an emerging technology that efficiently and safely connects land and islands. The SFT route problem is an essential part of the SFT planning and design phase, with significant impacts on the surrounding environment. This study aims to develop an optimization model considering transportation and structure factors. The SFT routing problem was optimized based on two objective functions, i.e., minimizing total travel time and cumulative strains, using NSGA-II. The proposed model was applied to the section from Mokpo to Jeju Island using road network and wave observation data. As a result of the proposed model, a Pareto optimum curve was obtained, showing a negative correlation between the total travel time and cumulative strain. Based on the inflection points on the Pareto optimum curve, four optimal SFT routes were selected and compared to identify the pros and cons. The travel time savings of the four selected alternatives were estimated to range from 9.9% to 10.5% compared to the non-implemented scenario. In terms of demand, there was a substantial shift in the number of travel and freight trips from airways to railways and roadways. Cumulative strain, calculated based on SFT distance, support structure, and wave energy, was found to be low when the route passed through small islands. The proposed model helps decision-making in the planning and design phases of SFT projects, ultimately contributing to the progress of a safe, efficient, and sustainable SFT infrastructure.

글로벌 혁신클러스터로서 연구개발특구 추진전략에 관한 연구 -대덕, 광주, 대구 연구개발특구의 연계 시나리오를 중심으로- (The Strategy for the Development of the Innopolis as a Global Innovation Cluster -Focused on the Scenario Planning of the Daedeok, Gwangju, Daegu Innopolis-)

  • 이원일
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제13권11호
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    • pp.5015-5024
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    • 2012
  • 본 연구에서는 글로벌 혁신클러스터로서 연구개발특구를 살펴보고 향후 추진전략에 대해서 고찰하였다. 이러한 연구 목적을 달성하기 위해서 혁신클러스터의 이론전개, 글로벌 혁신클러스터의 개념 및 성공사례를 살펴보았다. 또한, 본 연구의 분석 대상인 연구개발특구의 개념과 현황을 고찰하였다. 본 연구에서는 글로벌 혁신클러스터로서 연구개발특구의 추진전략 도출을 위하여 시나리오플래닝 방법론이 활용되었으며, 이를 통해 3가지 전략방향이 도출되었다. 첫 번째는 연구개발특구가 혁신클러스터의 단계적 발전단계에 맞추어 발전할 수 있도록 하드웨어 구축 뿐만 아니라 산학협력, 기업지원 등 소프트웨어적인 측면에서 체계적인 단지육성전략을 추진해야 한다. 두 번째는 대덕특구외에도 새로이 특구로 지정된 광주, 대구특구와 조정, 협력, 네트워크를 강화하는 것이다. 세 번째는 새로이 기초과학중심의 혁신클러스터로 추진되고 있는 국제과학비즈니스벨트와의 연계를 강화하며 기초과학과 산업화 클러스터간의 시너지를 창출하는 것이다. 글로벌 혁신클러스터로서 연구개발특구의 전략방향을 다차원적으로 고찰한 본 논문은 향후 클러스터 추진 관련 연구 조직에게 큰 함의를 제공할 수 있을 것으로 기대한다.

유비쿼터스 스마트 도시와 행정공간정보화 연구 - 부산 센텀시티 중심으로 - (A Study on the Administrative Spatial Informatization and Ubiquitous Smart City : Focus on Busan Centum City)

  • 이상윤;윤홍주
    • 한국전자통신학회논문지
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    • 제11권4호
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    • pp.351-364
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    • 2016
  • 최근 들어 본격적으로 스마트 사회가 시작되고 유비쿼터스 시대로 진입하는 등 정보통신기술의 급격한 변화에 따른 새로운 패러다임의 도래는 지역의 도시행정공간정보화 측면에서 주목할 만한 전환점이 되고 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 미래예측방법으로 많이 활용되고 있는 시나리오 플래닝 방법론을 적용하여 부산지역의 선도적인 글로벌 스마트 도시를 꿈꾸고 있는 부산 센텀시티의 도시정보화에 대한 바람직한 미래상을 도출하였다. 곧 더욱 진화될 스마트 사회와 유비쿼터스 시대에 합당한 부산 센텀시티의 상대적 미래우위전략을 찾고자, 메터데이터로서 행정공간정보화된 정보의 활용 측면을 제안하였으며, 부산 센텀시티의 성공적인 지역정보화 전략을 도출하였다. 결국 2030년 무렵에도 여전히 부산 센텀시티가 선도적인 정보화 스마트도시로 남기위해서는 현재의 도시정책 뿐만 아니라 앞으로도 지속적으로 행정공간정보화된 정보를 메타데이터로서 도시정보시스템에 제공하여 대민서비스의 만족도를 높이는 것이 중요하다.

Modeling water supply and demand under changing climate and socio-economic growth over Gilgit-Baltistan of Pakistan using WEAP

  • Mehboob, Muhammad Shafqat;Panda, Manas Ranjan;Kim, Yeonjoo
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2020년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.116-116
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    • 2020
  • Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) is a highly mountainous and remote region covering 45% of Upper Indus Basin (UIB) with around 1.8 million population is vulnerable to climate change and socio-economic growth makes water resources management and planning more complex. To understand the water scarcity in the region this study is carried out to project water supply and demand for agricultural and domestic sector under various climate-socio-economic scenarios in five sub catchments of GB i.e., Astore, Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar and Shyok for a period of 2015 to 2050 using Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model. For climate change scenario ensembled mean of three global climate models (GCMs) was used under three different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and agricultural Land Development (LD) scenarios were combined with climate scenarios to develop climate-socio-economic scenario. Our results indicate that the climate change and socio-economic growth would create a gap between supply and demand of water in the region, with socio-economic growth (e.g. agricultural and population) as dominant external factor that would reduce food production and increase poverty level in the region. Among five catchments only Astore and Gilgit will face shortfall of water while Shyoke would face shortfall of water only under agricultural growth scenarios. We also observed that the shortfall of water in response to climate-socio-economic scenarios is totally different over two water deficient catchments due to its demography and geography. Finally, to help policy makers in developing regional water resources and management policies we classified five sub catchments of UIB according to its water deficiency level.

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전립선암의 영상유도방사선치료 시 격일 콘빔 CT 적용의 유용성 평가 (Evaluation of Every Other Day - Cone Beam Computed Tomography in Image Guided Radiation Therapy for Prostate Cancer)

  • 박병석;안종호;김종식;송기원
    • 대한방사선치료학회지
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    • 제26권2호
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    • pp.289-295
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    • 2014
  • 목 적 : 영상유도방사선치료 시 사용하는 콘빔 CT는 치료자세 오차를 확인하는 중요한 수단이지만 피폭선량을 증가 시키는 단점이 있다. 이에 본 연구는 콘빔 CT의 시행주기를 격일로 하는 시나리오를 만들어 유용성을 평가하고자 한다. 대상 및 방법 : 콘빔 CT를 이용하여 세기변조방사선치료를 받은 전립선암 환자 9명을 대상으로 실제 치료 시 매일 콘빔 CT로 치료자세 오차를 분석하여 보정한 값을 바탕으로 격일로 콘빔 CT를 시행하는 시나리오를 만들었다. 시나리오에서 콘빔 CT를 시행하지 않은 날의 치료자세 오차 값을 실제 치료 시의 치료중심점에서 이동하여 치료계획시스템(Pinnacle 9.2, Philips, USA)에 적용한 후 실제 치료와 동일한 조건으로 재 치료계획을 수립하였으며, 이를 바탕으로 PTV(Planning Target Volume)와 정상장기의 선량분포를 비교 분석하였다. 결 과 : 매일 콘빔 CT를 시행하였을 때의 치료자세 오차 값을 기준으로 격일로 콘빔 CT를 시행하는 시나리오에서는 X, Y, Z축으로 각각 $0.2{\pm}0.73mm$, $0.1{\pm}0.58mm$, $-1.3{\pm}1.17mm$ 차이가 나타났다. 이를 치료계획에 적용하여 재 치료계획을 수립하여 선량분포를 평가한 결과는 매일 콘빔 CT를 시행한 결과와 비교하여 PTV의 Dmean : -0.17 Gy, $D_{99%}$ : -0.71 Gy, 차이가 나타났다. 정상 장기는 직장 벽의 $V_{66}$ : 1.55%, 방광의 $V_{66}$ : -0.76% 차이가 나타났다. 결 론 : 격일로 콘빔 CT를 시행하였을 경우 콘빔 CT에 의한 피폭선량을 감소시키고 촬영으로 인한 추가적인 치료시간을 줄여 줄 수 있다. 또한 PTV, 정상장기의 선량분포의 차이가 크지 않으므로 환자의 상태의 따라 격일 콘빔 CT의 적용을 고려할 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

기후변화를 고려한 농촌지역 그린빌리지의 태양에너지 활용에 관한 경제성 분석 (Economic Analysis of Rural Green-Village Planning with Solar Energy considering Climate Change)

  • 김대식;왕영두
    • 농촌계획
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    • 제19권3호
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    • pp.25-36
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    • 2013
  • This study aims to perform the economic analysis to the use of solar power facilities in rural villages considering the climate change scenario. IPCC climate change scenarios in the recently adopted the RCP scenarios (RCP8.5, RCP6.5, RCP4.5, RCP2.6) was used. By RCP scenarios, solar radiation, depending on the scenario in 2100, respectively, 3.6%, 2.5%, 1.9%, 1.1% was assumed to increase. From the economic analysis(payback period is 25 year) on 8 points of each province, in all cases of normal data and four RCP scenarios, at all points analyzed were NPV indicate a negative, BC ratio less than 1.0, respectively. In the case of Mokpo, Chunnam RCP8.5, BC ratio were found to be up to a 0.92, followed by 0.89 in the case of RCP8.5 in Jinju, Kyungnam shows, while the minimum was in Jeju. BC ratio is 1.0 or bigger, in order for the normal solar radiation data in Mokpo, Chonnam was the minimum that it takes 37 years. Similarly, in the case of RCP scenarios, 30 years in Mokpo, Chonnam RCP8.5 and 31 years in the cases of Jinju, Kyungnam and Jeonju, Cheonbuk RCP8.5 were analyzed. It was analyzed that RCP8.5 has the highest value. BC analysis models for each of the factors, the results of the sensitivity analysis, the initial installation costs, electricity sales price, discount rate in the order of economy showed higher sensitivity, and the rest factors showed lower changes. Although there are some differences of solar radiation by region, but in Korea most facilities in rural areas, the use of solar power was considered to be economical enough, considering change of several factors with high sensitivity, such as increasing of government subsidies for the solar power installation of the facility, rising oil prices due to a rise in electricity sales price, and a change in discount rate. In particular, when considering climate change scenarios, the use of solar energy for rural areas of the judgment that there was more economical.