• Title/Summary/Keyword: Scenario based Analysis

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Development of the Efficiency-Evaluation Model for the Mechanism of CO2 Sequestration in a Deep Saline Aquifer (심부 대염수층 CO2 격리 메커니즘에 관한 효율성 평가 모델 개발)

  • Kim, Jung-Gyun;Lee, Young-Soo;Lee, Jeong-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.55-66
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    • 2012
  • The practical way to minimize the greenhouse gas is to reduce the emission of carbon dioxide. For this reason, CCS(Carbon Capture and Storage) technology, which could reduce carbon dioxide emission, has risen as a realistic alternative in recent years. In addition, the researcher is recently working into ways of applying CCS technologies with deep saline aquifer. In this study, the evaluation model on the feasibility of $CO_2$ sequestration in the deep saline aquifer using ANN(Artificial Neural Network) was developed. In order to develop the efficiency-evaluation model, basic model was created in the deep saline aquifer and sensitivity analysis was performed for the aquifer characteristics by utilizing the commercial simulator of GEM. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the factors and ranges affecting $CO_2$ sequestration in the deep saline aquifer were chosen. The result from ANN training scenario were confirmed $CO_2$ sequestration by solubility trapping and residual trapping mechanism. The result from ANN model evaluation indicated there is the increase of correlation coefficient up to 0.99. It has been confirmed that the developed model can be utilized in feasibility of $CO_2$ sequestration at deep saline aquifer.

A Comparative Study on General Circulation Model and Regional Climate Model for Impact Assessment of Climate Changes (기후변화의 영향평가를 위한 대순환모형과 지역기후모형의 비교 연구)

  • Lee, Dong-Kun;Kim, Jae-Uk;Jung, Hui-Cheul
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.249-258
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    • 2006
  • Impacts of global warming have been identified in many areas including natural ecosystem. A good number of studies based on climate models forecasting future climate have been conducted in many countries worldwide. Due to its global coverage, GCM, which is a most frequently used climate model, has limits to apply to Korea with such a narrower and complicated terrain. Therefore, it is necessary to perform a study impact assessment of climate changes with a climate model fully reflecting characteristics of Korean climate. In this respect, this study was designed to compare and analyze the GCM and RCM in order to determine a suitable climate model for Korea. In this study, spatial scope was Korea for 10 years from 1981 to 1990. As a research method, current climate was estimated on the basis of the data obtained from observation at the GHCN. Future climate was forecast using 4 GCMs furnished by the IPCC among SRES A2 Scenario as well as the RCM received from the NIES of Japan. Pearson correlation analysis was conducted for the purpose of comparing data obtained from observation with GCM and RCM. As a result of this study, average annual temperature of Korea between 1981 and 1990 was found to be around $12.03^{\circ}C$, with average daily rainfall being 2.72mm. Under the GCM, average annual temperature was between 10.22 and $16.86^{\circ}C$, with average daily rainfall between 2.13 and 3.35mm. Average annual temperature in the RCM was identified $12.56^{\circ}C$, with average daily rainfall of 5.01mm. In the comparison of the data obtained from observation with GCM and RCM, RCMs of both temperature and rainfall were found to well reflect characteristics of Korea's climate. This study is important mainly in that as a preliminary study to examine impact of climate changes such as global warming it chose appropriate climate model for our country. These results of the study showed that future climate produced under similar conditions with actual ones may be applied for various areas in many ways.

Factorial analysis on commercial success of the American theatrical CG animation movies : Focused on characters, situations, and images (미국 극장용 CG애니메이션의 흥행 요인 분석: 인물, 상황, 이미지를 중심으로)

  • Chang, Wook-Sang;Han, Boo-Young
    • Cartoon and Animation Studies
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    • s.30
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    • pp.59-86
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    • 2013
  • 'Spectacles' and 'factuality' provided by computer technology are strengths of CG animation to still lure the audience and after commercial success of a number of theatrical CG animations whose typical producing companies are PIXAR and DreamWorks, were produced to be commercially successful and they win massive popularity even now. In Korea as well, several works tried to achieve a box office success including , , etc. but the result was truly miserable. In the past, this failure was often attributed to a lack of 'technical expertise', but it became clear that in the process of continuous trial and error, 'narrative' and 'images of imagination' which are bases and characteristics of animation are key elements of commercial success. Actually, statistics indicate that narrative is what is considered to be the most important by the audience when they select animation and its importance is so absolute that they say the most significant thing in animation is 'story.' In particular, it can be said that 'characters', 'situations', and 'ideas' play a key role in them which become elements of the story. This paper studied with what characteristics each animation aroused pleasure and fun focused on characters, situations and images in relation to , , and which are American theatrical CG animation films which succeeded in gaining popularity home and abroad. We hope that analysis in this paper will be helpful even just a little bit as a reference material, which allows domestic writers and producers to develop familiar and characteristic works based on imagination and creativity expressing each work's unique personality and characteristics.

The configuration analysis for the storyboard image (스토리보드 이미지 구성 분석)

  • Lim, Woon-Joo
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.403-408
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    • 2013
  • The configuration analysis for the image appeared in the storyboard as the 1st stage to change the scenario to the image expressed the visual phenomenon image starting from the literalism. The simultaneity of description on the interpretative level of the narrative description may describe various information multiple simultaneously, the relationship has been presented as a lot of these information has been weaved as one episode. The incident time of narrative description as the scene described mainly objectively and illustratively has been used usefully to present the accurate information for characters or incidents. The time series of narrative description appeared as one episode by expressing various spaces or images under the continuity of flow according to the time. The collision image seen from the angle of internal ignition played a role to create the meaning colliding into each other or interconnecting symbolic effects appeared as respectively fragmented image, the continuity of space played a role of expressing the different symbol when the image of completely different space is connected to one context, the continuity of time as well makes a different symbolism by interpreting symbols appeared as each images under the flow of time. These results show that the narrative description may be expressed in accordance with the narrative structure from the viewpoints of narrative description, but the internal ignition may be interpreted through the cultural and periodical background widely known in those years based on the experience and information capability the audiences are keeping not by any descriptive structure. Images appeared in the internal ignition appeared by colliding into each other or amplifying mutually no related scenes and revealing the overall symbolism by reinterpreting again.

A Study on the Multiple Real Option Model for Evaluating Values based on Real Estate Development Scenario (다중 실물옵션을 활용한 시나리오기반 부동산 개발사업 가치평가 연구)

  • Jang, Mikyoung;Ku, Yohwan;Choi, Hyemi;Kwon, Tae-Hwan;Kim, Juhyung;Kim, Jaejun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.114-122
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    • 2015
  • Real estate development requires significant amount of capital investment. The project duration has been increased according to its enlarged size. For this reason, cost overrun and time delay are important risk factors that should be managed properly. As a method to hedge the risk, varoius real option methods have been presented. However, conventional project value assesment methods such as NPV(Net Present Value) have weakness to support decision making by reflecting dynamic situations in terms of variation of cost and time. Furthermore, the decision making process is serious of actions rather than discrete event. The purpose of this paper is to present a multiple real option valuation method to overcome the deterministic aspect of real option presented in previous research and practice. The method is developed as following: firstly, to select the model that can be applied in the real estate development project through a survey from previous literature on real options analysis; secondly, to apply data from office development case in order to verify the model by applying conventional real option and multiple real option valuation. According to analysis result, multiple real option provides enhanced values comparing to NPV and single real option.

A Study on the Profitable Urban Park Model using Smart Street Light System (스마트 가로등 시스템을 적용한 수익형 도시공원모델에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Ji-Hee;Cho, Han-Bo;Kim, Tae-Han
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.28-35
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    • 2012
  • Recently, as the social interest increase has been focused on new renewable energy system to build-up sustainable urban planning system, the related studies have been actively conducting. As well as in other areas, the construction area, which accounts for over 40% of the total energy consumption, clearly showed this tendency. Whereas, various landscape facilities applying renewable energy equipments have been manufactured and installed, systematic study available for planning and designing is rarely found in Korea. This study is expected to contribute to the landscape planning and designing by quantifying the energy-efficient and economic advantages of the renewable energy system for landscape facilities. For this purpose, the analysis on the energy-efficiency and economic values under the scenario that the current fossil power supply for the streetlights in urban parks in Seoul, Daegu, and Incheon were replaced by photovoltaic power generation were performed through RETScreen$^{(R)}$ a clean energy simulation program based on the NASA Satellite Meteorological Data. As a result, the generated power and the economic values vary depending on the climatic features of the appointed cities. This study will be used to build up the effective decision-making in applying the clean renewable system to the plan and design of landscaping.

Projection on First Flowering Date of Cherry, Peach and Pear in 21st Century Simulated by WRFv3.4 Based on RCP 4.5 and 8.5 Scenarios (WRF를 이용한 RCP 4.5와 8.5 시나리오 하의 21세기 벚, 복숭아, 배 개화일 변화 전망)

  • Hur, Jina;Ahn, Joong-Bae;Shim, Kyo-Moon
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.693-706
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    • 2015
  • A shift of first fowering date (FFD) of spring blossoms (cherry, peach and pear) over the northest Asia under global warming is investiaged using dynamically downscaled daily temperature data with 12.5 km resolution. For the study, we obatained gridded daily data with Historical (1981~2010), and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) (2021~2100) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios which were produced by WRFv3.4 in conjunction with HadGEM2-AO. A change on FFDs in 21st century is estimated by applying daily outputs of WRFv3.4 to DTS phonological model. Prior to projection on future climate, the performances of both WRFv3.4 and DTS models are evaluated using spatial distribution of climatology and SCR diagram (Normalized standard deviation-Pattern correlation coefficient-Root mean square difference). According to the result, WRFv3.4 and DTS models well simulated a feature of the terrain following characteristics and a general pattern of observation with a marigin of $1.4^{\circ}C$ and 5~6 days. The analysis reveals a projected advance in FFDs of cherry, peach and pear over the northeast Asia by 2100 of 15.4 days (9.4 days). 16.9 days (10.4 days) and 15.2 days (9.5 days), respectively, compared to the Historical simulation due to a increasing early spring (Februrary to April) temperature of about $4.9^{\circ}C$ ($2.9^{\circ}C$) under the RCP 8.5 (RCP 4.5) scenarios. This indicates that the current flowering of the cherry, peach and pear over analysis area in middle or end of April is expected to start blooming in early or middle of April, at the end of this century. The present study shows the dynamically downscaled daily data with high-resolution is helpeful in offering various useful information to end-users as well as in understanding regional climate change.

Effects of Perceived Benefits and Costs of Traditional Market Support on Relationship Quality and Support (전통시장 지원에 대한 지각된 혜택과 비용이 관계품질과 지지에 미치는 영향)

  • Seo, Jung-Suk;Yang, Jaejang;Lee, Yong-Ki
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.12 no.12
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    • pp.43-54
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    • 2014
  • Purpose - This study examines how perceived benefits and costs of traditional market support affect relationship quality and support for a marketeer. In addition, it investigates whether support for traditional market aid programs leads to support for the government. The author developed a structural model comprising several variables, in which perceived benefits and costs comprising economic, social, and environmental costs were proposed, to affect the relationship quality (satisfaction and trust) of traditional market aid programs and the government. Consequently, marketeers satisfied and trusted by traditional market aid programs and the government would support the traditional market aid program, resulting in higher support for the government. The model proposed that customer satisfaction would improve customer loyalty and business performance. Thus, the relationship quality (satisfaction and trust) of the traditional market aid program and government was proposed as a core mediating variable between perceived benefits and costs and support. Research design, data, and methodology - To analyze the proposed model, this study investigates the scenario with a traditional marketeer. Data were collected from 331 respondents, and analyzed with SPSS/PC 18.0 and AMOS 18.0. To test the unidimensionality and nomological validity of the measures of each construct, we employed a scale refinement procedure. The result of the reliability test with Cronbach's and confirmatory factor analysis warranted unidimensionality of the measures for each construct. In addition, nomological validity of the measures was warranted from the result of correlation analysis. Results - First, perceived benefit affects the relationship quality of traditional market aid programs and government. Second, perceived costs affect the satisfaction of traditional market aid programs and government. Third, the relationship quality of a traditional market aid program affects the support of a traditional market aid program, and the relationship quality of government affects the support of government. Finally, the support of traditional market aid program affects support of government. The results confirm the findings of previous studies that local development positively influences support, based on the social exchange theory. Conclusions - The theoretical and managerial contributions of this study are as follows. First, it is the first such study, and defines mediating variables, analyzing relationship quality (satisfaction and trust) between perceived benefits and costs and support for the traditional market industry. Further, it investigates the structural relationships between them with the AMOS program. Second, while most previous studies investigating the relationship between similar variables and those of the present study analyzed how perceived benefits and costs influenced support, this study identified the transfer relationship between the support for traditional market programs and support for the government. This study confirms that support for traditional market aid program increases support for the government. Therefore, government policy makers for traditional market aid programs should explain to marketeers the benefits and costs of traditional market development in terms of economic, social, and environmental factors. At the end, limitations, further research directions, and implications are suggested.

A Study on the Application of EXPERT-CHOICE Technique for Selection of Optimal Decontamination Technology for Nuclear Power Plant of Decommissioning (원전 해체 시 최적 제염기술 선정을 위한 EXPERT-CHOICE 기법 적용에 대한 연구)

  • Song, Jong Soon;Shin, Seung Su;Lee, Sang Heon
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.231-237
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    • 2017
  • The present study researched and analyzed decontamination technology for decommissioning a nuclear power plant. The decision-making technique (EXPERT-CHOICE) was used to evaluate and select the optimal decontamination technology. In principle, this evaluation method is generally performed by a group of experts in the relevant field. The results of the weights were calculated by multiplying the weights with regard to each criterion and evaluation score. The evaluation scores were categorized into 3 ranges (high, medium, and low), and each range was weighted for differentiation. The level of the technology analysis was improved by additionally quantifying the weights with regard to each criterion and subdividing criteria into subcriteria. The basic assumption of the evaluation was that the weight values would decided on in an expert survey and assigned to each criterion. The evaluation criteria followed high weight for the 'High' range. Accordingly, H, M, and L were assigned weights of 10:5:1, respectively. This was based on the EXPERT-CHOICE optimal analysis. The minimum and maximum values were excluded, and the average value was used as the evaluation value for each scenario.

Stakeholder Oriented Economical Efficiency Analysis on the Scenario to Implement Smart Transportation Services (지능형 운송 서비스 구축 시나리오에 대한 이해관계자 중심 경제성 분석)

  • Shin, KwangSup;Moon, Yongma;Hur, Wonchang;Kim, Woo Je
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.35-43
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    • 2015
  • This research proposed a new method to evaluate the objective validity to launch smart transportation services that various stakeholders are complicatedly inter-connected. First of all, we have designed the fundamental business model to form the smart transportation services and defined the stakeholders taking part in the services. Also, the criteria to evaluate the economical validity has been proposed based on the relationship among stakeholders. Especially, in the case EV drivers and charging service providers, the economical validity depends on the scale of spreading. Therefore, we have compared the two extreme scenarios, the poor and stable level of EV spreading. According to the result, it may be said that EV drivers and charging service providers cannot be guaranteed the economical validity due to the burden of initial investment. On the contrary to this, suppliers of EV and charging gears may secure more than a certain level of profit. In addition, the government may have great profit due to reducing the CO2 emission and cost for importing energy sources. Therefore, it is needed to enhance the level of supporting EV drivers and charging service providers at the first stage. Also, the impact of the ratio of EV and charging service stations on the economical validity of smart transportation should be further investigated.