• 제목/요약/키워드: Scenario based Analysis

검색결과 959건 처리시간 0.026초

VR 시나리오를 이용한 음주운전자 운전 특성의 유의성 및 상관분석에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Significance and Relationship Drunken Drivers Characteristics Using Virtual Reality Scenario)

  • 김명수;박상진
    • 한국도로학회논문집
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    • 제14권5호
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    • pp.165-177
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    • 2012
  • PURPOSES: The number of traffic accidents in 2010 was 226,978 in Korea, a high percentage of which up to 12.61% was due to drunk driving. As it is expected that the number of traffic accidents will increase because of the drastic increase of the number of vehicle registrations and the prevalent drinking cultures, it is necessary to understand the driving characteristics of drunken drivers to lower the increasing rate. METHODS: This study, therefore, comparatively analyzes the two groups - one group before drinking and the other after drinking - based on the graph, and implements the correlation in each scenario(1,2,3). scenario 1. appearance of jaywalkers; scenario 2. appearance of an illegal left-turning car; and scenario 3. appearance of a vehicle and a person as obstacles to the driver after an accident. RESULTS: The comparative analysis of speed shows that the group after drinking was 50km/h faster than the group before drinking in Scenario 1, 20km/h in Scenario 2, and 15km/h in Scenario 3 respectively. In the comparative analysis of acceleration, the average level of the group after drinking was 0.15 higher than that of the group before drinking in Scenario 1, 0.30 in Scenario 2, and 0.15 in Scenario 3. In the comparative analysis of deceleration, the average level of the group after drinking was about 0.4 lower than that of the group before drinking in Scenario 1, 0.35 in Scenario 2, and 0.2 in Scenario 3 respectively. In the comparative analyses, the item of speed, acceleration and deceleration was of significance for each group in Scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: The comparative analysis demonstrated that there is a difference between the group before drinking and the group after drinking. In the analysis of correlation in each group, it was proved that the drunken group was of significance.

확률론적 지진재해도를 이용한 시나리오 지진의 결정기법에 관한 연구 (Study on the Scenario Earthquake Determining Methods Based on the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis)

  • 최인길;중도정인;전영선;연관희
    • 한국지진공학회논문집
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    • 제8권6호통권40호
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    • pp.23-29
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    • 2004
  • 원전 구조물 및 기기의 내진설계를 위한 설계지진의 설정에는 결정론적 방법이나 확률론적 방법이 사용되어 왔다. 최근에는 확률론적 지진재해도 분석이 일반화 되면서 확률론적으로 설계지진 및 평가용 지진의 설정 방법이 합리적인 방법으로서 인식되어 많이 사용되고 있다. 우리나라의 경우 원전부지에 대한 확률론적 지진재해도 분석이 확률론적 지진위험도 평가의 일환으로 대부분 완료되어 있다. 본 연구에서는 확률론적 지진재해도의 재분해를 통하여 확률론적 시나리오 지진을 산정할 수 있는 기법을 확립하고 국내 원전 부지에 대한 확률론적 지진재해도 분석 결과를 이용하여 계산 예를 수행하였다. 이 기법을 사용하면 내진설계 및 내진안전성 평가에 활용할 수 있는 확률론적 시나리오 지진을 설정할 수 있어 매우 유용한 것으로 판단되며 합리적인 시나리오 지진의 산정을 위해서는 합리적인 지진구역도 및 감쇄식의 개발이 필요하다.

시계열 분석을 통한 보육교사 수급 전망 (Forecasting Demand of Childcare Teachers using Time Series Analysis)

  • 이미화;박진아;강은진
    • 한국보육지원학회지
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    • 제12권6호
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    • pp.123-137
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study was to forecast demand of childcare teachers based ion four different scenarios. In order to, the demand for childcare teachers from 2015 to 2024 were forecasted using time series techniques with data on the number of childcare teachers from 2003 to 2014. Results were as followings. Firstly, the demand for childcare teachers was expected to increase until 2019, but after 2020 steadily decreased in terms of scenario 1(child teacher ratio regulation). According to scenario 2(child teacher ratio based on 17 cities and provinces), the demand for childcare teachers was expected to need 440 teachers more until 2016. Then, according to scenario 3(two teachers each class), Scenario 4-1(one teacher and one staff each 2 toddler class and 3 older class) and scenario 4-2(one teacher and one staff each class), the demand of childcare teachers and staffs were estimated. These results implicated that childcare teachers and staffs supply policy would be established according to forecast demand.

Scenario Planning and Risk Failure Mode Effect and Analysis (RFMEA) based Management

  • Paul, Virendra Kumar;Basu, Chaitali
    • Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • 제6권2호
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    • pp.24-29
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    • 2016
  • This paper elaborates the significance of scenario planning in risk management, and presents an integrated approach which takes into account the 'Risk Events' derived from scenario planning for risk prioritisation. This research integrates scenario planning with Risk Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (RFMEA) through examples from construction litigations of project schedule and cost overrun cases as a simplified approach to project risk management. The proposed methodology incorporates scenarios developed from realistic events of dispute and arbitration cases from construction projects, and thereby increasing potential to foresee risks and their effects well in advance. The results from this methodology shall be validated against outcome of survey study conducted by KPMG-PMI (2013) on project schedule and cost overruns that was based on Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) Project Monitoring data for 2012-13.

LEAP 모형을 이용한 건축물의 온실가스 감축 시나리오 분석 - 서울세관건물 그린리모델링 시범사업을 중심으로 - (Analysis of GHG Reduction Scenarios on Building using the LEAP Model - Seoul Main Customs Building Demonstration Project -)

  • 윤영중;김민욱;한준;전의찬
    • 한국기후변화학회지
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    • 제7권3호
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    • pp.341-349
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    • 2016
  • This study is intended to set a greenhouse gas emission scenario based on green remodeling pilot project (Annex building of Seoul Customs Office) using LEAP model, a long-term energy plan analysis model, to calculate the energy saving and greenhouse gas emission till year 2035 as well as to analyze the effect of electric power saving cost. Total 4 scenarios were made, Baseline scenario, assuming the past trend is to be maintained in the future, green remodeling scenario, reflecting actual green remodeling project of Seoul Customs Office, behavior improvement and renewable energy supply, and Total scenario. According to the analysis result, the energy demand in 2035 of Baseline scenario was 6.1% decreased from base year 2013, that of green remodeling scenario was 17.5%, that of behavior improvement and renewable energy supply scenario was 21.1% and that of total scenario was 27.3%. The greenhouse emission of base year 2013 was $878.2tCO_2eq$, and it was expected $826.3tCO_2eq$, approx. 5.9% reduced, in 2035 by Baseline scenario. the cumulative greenhouse gas emission saving of the analyzing period were $-26.5tCO_2eq$ by green remodeling scenario, $2.8k\;tCO_2eq$ by behavior improvement and renewable energy supply scenario, and $2.0k\;tCO_2eq$ by total scenario. In addition the effect of electricity saving cost through energy saving has been estimated, and it was approx. 634 million won by green remodeling scenario and appro. 726 million won by behavior improvement and renewable energy supply scenario. So it is analyzed that of behavior improvement and renewable energy supply scenario would be approx. 12.7% higher than that of green remodeling scenario.

AGV 물류 이동장치의 효율적인 STPA 안전성 분석을 위한 운영 시나리오 연계 분석 프로세스 모델 연구 (A Study on the Integrated STPA-Scenario Process Model for Efficient Safety Analysis Based on Operation Scenarios of AGV)

  • 김명성;김영민
    • 대한안전경영과학회지
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    • 제25권3호
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    • pp.45-53
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    • 2023
  • In order to solve the rapidly increasing domestic delivery volume and various problems in the recent metropolitan area, domestic researchers are conducting research on the development of "Urban Logistics System Using Underground Space" using existing urban railway facilities in the city. Safety analysis and scenario analysis should be performed for the safe system design of the new concept logistics system, but the scenario analysis techniques performed in previous studies so far do not have standards and are defined differently depending on the domain, subject, or purpose. In addition, it is necessary to improve the difficulty of clearly defining the control structure and the omission of UCA in the existing STPA safety analysis. In this study, an improved scenario table is proposed for the AGV horizontal transport device, which is a key equipment of an urban logistics system using underground space, and a process model is proposed by linking systematic STPA safety analysis and scenario analysis, and UCA and Control Structure Guidelines are provided to create a safety analysis.

시나리오 기반 시뮬레이션을 활용한 북한지역 반격 시 물자수송 능력 분석방법 연구 (A Study on Material Transportation Capability Analysis Method in NK using Scenario-based Simulation)

  • 최병권;정석재
    • 한국군사과학기술학회지
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    • 제20권2호
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    • pp.279-288
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    • 2017
  • The Material Transportation Capability Analysis Method in North Korea includes adversary's activities such as destruction of bridge which is one kind of choke points in the road network and surprise attack against resupply march unit. Also, the amount of damage on choke points in the road network and repair time depending on repair unit commitment must be reflected. In this study, a scenario encompassing plausible resupply transportation circumstances while counterattacking into NK will be established. Then, based on such scenario, a simulation model will be established and the result of simulation will be compared to the results of numeric example which has been used in the ROK Army. We demonstrate, through a certain Corps operation area, that the Scenario-based Simulation Model results predict the performance of resupply operation very well. Therefore, it makes sustainment planners and commanders do activities which is suitable for battlefield and should be used in the real situation. It is also a stochastic model.

사용 사례 모델링을 위한 시나리오 기반의 목적 지향 접근법에 관한 연구 (Scenario-based Goal-oriented Approach for Use Case Modeling)

  • Kim, Jeong-Wook;Park, Sooyong;Nam, Ki-Chan
    • 한국경영과학회지
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    • 제28권2호
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    • pp.91-103
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    • 2003
  • Use case modeling on UML (Unified Modeling Language) is getting widely used in OOAD and CBD and it is considered a useful technique in dealing with the complexity of the requirements analysis. However, some of the problems with use case modeling are that it is not structured, difficult to handle non-functional requirements, and to analyze impacts among use cases. To alleviate these problems, we propose a scenario-based goal-oriented approach for use case modeling. The proposed approach is to apply a goal-oriented analysis method to use case modeling. Since goal-oriented analysis method is not systematic and many heuristics are involved, we have adopted scenarios as the basis for goal extraction. The proposed method is applied to CBIS (City Bus Information Subsystem) in ITS (Intelligent Transportation System) domain. The proposed approach helps software engineers to analyze the impact among use cases and represent non-functional requirements.

목표 및 시나리오 기반 요구사항을 이용한 기능점수 분석 (Function Point Analysis using Goal and Scenario based Requirements)

  • 최순황;김진태;박수용;한지영
    • 한국정보과학회논문지:소프트웨어및응용
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    • 제33권8호
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    • pp.655-667
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    • 2006
  • 본 논문은 목표 및 시나리오 기반의 요구사항을 이용하여 기능점수 (function point)를 산정하는 방법을 제안한다. 기능점수는 소프트웨어의 규모를 계산하는 방법으로 널리 사용되고 있으며 비용계산의 기본자료가 된다. 기능접수를 산정하기 위해서는 요구사항 도출 및 분석이 선행되어야 하나 기존의 기능점수 방법론은 이를 다루지 않고 있다. 한편 시스템 개발의 초기단계에서 대부분의 요구사항은 자연어 형태로 수집된다. 목표와 시나리오 방법론은 자연어 형태의 요구사항을 사용하여 요구사항을 도출하고 분석하는 방법으로 널리 사용되고 있으며 추적성에 대한 장점을 가지고 있다. 그러므로 목표 및 시나리오 기반의 요구사항으로부터 기능점수를 산정 할 수 있다면 요구사항과 기능접수 간의 추적성 관리가 쉬워진다. 이에 본 논문에서는 목표와 시나리오 기반의 요구사항으로부터 기능점수를 산정하는 방안을 제안한다. 제안된 방안은 자연어 형태로 기술된 목표 및 시나리오로부터 기능접수 분석에 필요한 규칙을 제공한다. 제안된 방안은 Order Processing System 예제를 통해 적용 방안을 설명한다.

Scenario Usefulness and Avatar Realism in an Augmented Reality-based Classroom Simulation for Preservice Teacher Training

  • Kukhyeon KIM;Sanghoon PARK;Jeeheon RYU;Taehyeong LIM
    • Educational Technology International
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    • 제24권1호
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    • pp.1-27
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    • 2023
  • This study aimed to examine an augmented reality-based teaching simulation in a mobile application. We examined how AR-enabled interactions affect users' perceived scenario usefulness and avatar realism. The participants were forty-six undergraduate students. We randomly grouped them into two conditions: AR and Non-interactive video groups with equal sample sizes. This study employed an experimental design approach with a one-way multivariate analysis of variance with repeated measures. The independent variable is the presence/absence of AR interaction with a mobile application. The dependent variables were avatar realism and scenario usefulness. The measures explored how the student avatar's emotional intensity in a scenario influences user perception. The results showed that participants in the AR-interaction group perceived avatar realism significantly higher than those in the non-interactive video group. Also, participants perceived the high emotional intensity scenario (aggression toward peers) to be significantly higher usefulness than the low emotional intensity scenario (classroom disruption).