• Title/Summary/Keyword: Scenario analysis

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Development of Response Scenario for a Simulated HNS Spill Incident (위험유해물질 유출사고 대응을 위한 가상시나리오 개발)

  • Lee, Moonjin;Oh, Sangwoo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.677-684
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    • 2014
  • In response to possible HNS (Hazardous and Noxious Substance) spill accident, HNS spill accident scenario and response scenario were developed. The accident area listed in scenarios is the coastal area of Busan, and scenario for possible accident in the designated area and strategies to respond the accident were developed, respectively. The scenario for accident was developed by designating HNS spill according to risk evaluation of HNS and analysis of HNS spill probability along the coastal area of Busan, and then estimating possible and potential impact from the accident. The scenario for response has been suggested as a systematical responding operations in order to effectively reduce the estimated impact from the accident. The possible HNS spill accident on the seas around Busan, has been designated by the spillage of 1,000ton of xylene due to collision accident in Gamcheon Port, and the possible impacts occurred by the accident has been simulated with the help of the atmospheric and oceanic dispersion model of xylene. In the responding scenario for the accident, a phased strategies regarding emergency rescue of peoples, protection and recovery of xylene, protective measures for the responders, and post management of the accident have been suggested.

Analysis of Ecological Network According to Invalidation of Decision on Urban Parks: Focused on Busan (도시공원 일몰제에 따른 생태네트워크 변화 분석: 부산광역시를 대상으로)

  • Kang, Jung-Eun;Choi, Hee-Sun;Hwang, Hee-Soo;Lee, Sanghyeok
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.618-634
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    • 2018
  • This study examined ecological network change affected by the 2020 invalidation of decisions on urban parks with a focus on Busan. The analyses were conducted to five scenarios using FRAGSTATS. The green space in scenario 1 assuming all development for unexecuted urban park would decrease by 7,339.75 ha compared to scenario 5, which assumes the entire conservation of unexecuted urban parks, and the fragmentation of the ecological space in scenario 1 increased. In scenario 1, 8.06% of the total area of core habitats and 28.23% of connectivity would decrease. However, scenario 3, which assumes the conservation of environmentally sensitive areas of unexecuted urban parks, can achieve 94% of green space and 95.6% of the connectivity of the scenario 5. Scenario 3 has effects similar to scenario 5 in terms of defragmentation. Thus, conservation of environmentally sensitive areas in parks is critical and effective in maintaining ecological networks.

Long-term Effects on Forest Biomass under Climate Change Scenarios Using LANDIS-II - A case study on Yoengdong-gun in Chungcheongbuk-do, Korea - (산림경관천이모델(LANDIS-II)를 이용한 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 산림의 생물량 장기변화 추정 연구 -충청북도 영동군 학산면 봉소리 일대 산림을 중심으로 -)

  • Choi, Young-Eun;Choi, Jae-Yong;Kim, Whee-Moon;Kim, Seoung-Yeal;Song, Won-Kyong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.27-43
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    • 2019
  • This study applied the LANDIS-II model to the forest vegetation of the study area in Yeongdong-gun, Korea to identify climate effects on ecosystems of forest vegetation. The main purpose of the study is to examine the long-term changes in forest aboveground biomass(AGB) under three different climate change scenarios; The baseline climate scenario is to maintain the current climate condition; the RCP 4.5 scenario is a stabilization scenario to employ of technologies and strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions; the RCP 8.5 scenario is increasing greenhouse gas emissions over time representative with 936ppm of $CO_2$ concentration by 2100. The vegetation survey and tree-ring analysis were conducted to work out the initial vegetation maps and data for operation of the LANDIS model. Six types of forest vegetation communities were found including Quercus mongolica - Pinus densiflora community, Quercus mongolica community, Pinus densiflora community, Quercus variabilis-Quercus acutissima community, Larix leptolepis afforestation and Pinus koraiensis afforestation. As for changes in total AGB under three climate change scenarios, it was found that RCP 4.5 scenario featured the highest rate of increase in AGB whereas RCP 8.5 scenario yielded the lowest rate of increase. These results suggest that moderately elevated temperatures and $CO_2$ concentrations helped the biomass flourish as photosynthesis and water use efficiency increased, but huge increase in temperature ($above+4.0^{\circ}C$) has resulted in the increased respiration with increasing temperature. Consequently, Species productivity(Biomass) of trees decrease as the temperature is elevated drastically. It has been confirmed that the dominant species in all scenarios was Quercus mongolica. Like the trends shown in the changes of total AGB, it revealed the biggest increase in the AGB of Quercus mongolica under the RCP 4.5 scenario. AGB of Quercus mongolica and Quercus variabilis decreased in the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios after 2050 but have much higher growth rates of the AGB starting from 2050 under the baseline scenario. Under all scenarios, the AGB of coniferous species was eventually perished in 2100. In particular they were extinguished in early stages of the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. This is because of natural selection of communities by successions and the failure to adapt to climate change. The results of the study could be expected to be effectively utilized to predict changes of the forest ecosystems due to climate change and to be used as basic data for establishing strategies for adaptation climate changes and the management plans for forest vegetation restoration in ecological restoration fields.

A Chunghae Unit Study on the NCO Effectiveness of Anti-piracy Operation (청해부대 대해적작전의 네트워크작전(NCO) 효과 사례연구)

  • Jung, Wan-Hee
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.744-750
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    • 2014
  • In this paper, I have measured NCO(Network Centric Operation) Effectiveness of Anti-piracy Operation at the Chunghae Unit. For quantitative analysis, Network Centric Operations Conceptual Framework(U.S Office of Force Transformation) is applied. In accordance with the framework, the Chunghae unit anti-piracy operation scenario is analysed. The scenario is devided with two case(only voice communication and networking). The element of analysis be composed of the organic information, networking, share-ability, and individual information. As a result of analysis, the individual information of first case(only voice) gets 0.59 points. The other side, second case (networking) gets 1 points. This means that NCO has effect on the Chunghae Unit's mission. In addition, I stated the tactics advantage of NCO related a fighting power.

A Strategic Analysis of B2B e-Commerce : The Economic Impact of e-Marketplace Adoption

  • Sohn, Young-Woo;Whang, Kyu-Seung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society of Information Technology Applications Conference
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    • 2005.11a
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    • pp.305-310
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    • 2005
  • Recently, many organizations in various industries have introduced e-businesses for the purpose of adding value to their businesses. However, due to no comparable business models to e-business in the past, there are no reliable yardsticks to predict the performance of an e-business. This paper considers an environmental change analysis as a means to resolve this difficulty. System Dynamics (SD) could be a useful tool to generate effective results by examining the e-business model. SD model is developed to analyze the effects of an e-sales channel which was appended to the existing sales channels in the steel manufacturing industry. The results show an increase in average price and sales volume through the use of an auction process on the e-marketplace. Stocking expenses are reduced as well by the increase of the sales turnover. A possible scenario was adopted to the developed simulation model and investigated strategic issues to draw desirable strategies with market changes.

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A Method on a Proper Time Evaluation for Railway Emergency Response Staffs using the Therblig Analysis (Therblig 기법을 활용한 철도비상대응직원의 적정 비상대응조치 시간 도출 방안)

  • Park, Min-Kyu;Kim, Si-Gon;Sim, Young-Rok
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.689-695
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    • 2007
  • This Paper introduced a proper time evaluation for railway emergency response staffs using the Therblig Analysis. We defines what Activities the emergency response staffs should take when the fire occurs on the railway. This has been possible through the development of the scenario that is focused on the fire accident and it also has been driven to minimize the spread and damage of the accident. Gilbreth's Therblig Analysis has been used here to derive the reasonable time that would take for the emergency response staffs to respond to the fire accident on the railway system. We developed Emergency Response Scenario against Accidents and defined the Activity of the main Action for Emergency Response staffs.

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Analysis of Feeder wire fault Scenario on AC Railway Feeding System considering Train Position (전차 위치를 고려한 교류 전기철도 급전계통의 급전선 고장 시나리오 해석)

  • Huh, Seunghoon;Cho, Gyujung;Ryu, Kyusang;Lee, Hundo;Kim, Chulhwan;Min, Myunghwan;An, Taepung;Kwon, Seongil
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2015.07a
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    • pp.272-273
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    • 2015
  • This paper analyze scenario of feeder wire fault that occurs in the AC feeding system considering train position. The fault location of AC feeding system is calculated by measuring impedance. However, in this way, estimation error can be occurred because of tie connection, boosting current, etc. Therefore, it's hard to find fault location, so that it is required to detailed circuit analysis according to fault location. We analyze the short circuit impedance values with respect to feeder wire fault according to a train position. In this paper, PSCAD is used for modeling and analysis of AC railway feeding system.

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